Justin Upton’s Future Value
With Kevin Towers back at the helm of a Major League franchise, we can be assured of one thing – he’ll create enough trade rumors to keep Tim Dierkes busy for life. If loose lips really did sink ships, Towers could take out an armada in a matter of minutes. Today’s rumor du jour is that the Diamondbacks will be willing to listen to calls for young right fielder Justin Upton. In reality, most every GM is willing to listen to calls for most every player on their roster, so this probably doesn’t mean anything. But, just for fun, let’s figure out what Upton might be worth if Arizona really did put him on the market.
Every discussion has to start with his age. He turned 23 in August, so most organizations still have highly regarded prospects older than he is, and yet, he’s already accumulated +7.7 WAR in what amounts to about three big league seasons. Even with his step back in 2010, he was an above major league right fielder at a time when most kids his age are trying to prove themselves in Double-A.
So, while we can dissect Upton’s strengths and weaknesses based on his big league performance to date, we have to keep his youth in mind. Most players who get to the big leagues as quickly as Upton turn out to be very good players, or even superstars. His potential is obvious.
However, there is a gap between what Upton could be and what he currently is. His blend of power and athleticism has allowed him to succeed despite a lack of contact, but if he’s going to make the leap to the next level, he’s going to have to figure out how to stop striking out so often. In fact, Upton is the only player in major league history to strike out 400 times by the end of his age 22 season.
Even if you lower the bar too 300 strikeouts at this point in a career, only Jose Canseco whiffed with anything approaching the same consistency – 24.6 percent of his plate appearances resulted in strikeouts, still trailing the 25.9 percent mark set by Upton so far. If you drop down to 200 strikeouts, you finally find three players with a higher strikeout rate than Justin Upton through age 22 – his brother B.J (26.3%), Sammy Sosa (26.3%), and Reggie Jackson (29.0%).
Those comparisons are a bit of a mixed bag. Canseco and Sosa have obvious clouds hanging over their heads, while the elder Upton hasn’t turned into the player that Tampa Bay was hoping for as of yet. Jackson is the guy who offers hope, as he got his contact problems under control in his mid-20s and developed into one of the best sluggers of all time.
Trading for Upton comes with a huge potential payoff, but reaching superstar status now looks a little less likely than it did a year or two ago. So, while a team acquiring Upton could hope for a big return, they’d also have to keep in mind that he might end up settling in as a good-not-great player. Let’s look at both scenarios and his estimated value for both over the next five years.
Good Player, Not A Superstar
2011 – +3.5 WAR, $17.5 million value, $4.25 million salary
2012 – +4.0 WAR, $20.8 million value, $6.75 million salary
2013 – +4.5 WAR, $24.8 million value, $9.75 million salary
2014 – +4.5 WAR, $25.7 million value, $14.25 million salary
2015 – +5.0 WAR, $30.0 million value, $14.5 million salary
Total: +21.5 WAR, $118.7 million value, $49.5 million salary
That puts Upton at about $70 million in surplus value over what his contract will pay him between 2011 and 2015.
Upton Becomes Elite
2011 – +4.5 WAR, $22.5 million value, $4.25 million salary
2012 – +5.0 WAR, $26.0 million value, $6.75 million salary
2013 – +5.5 WAR, $30.25 million value, $9.75 million salary
2014 – +6.0 WAR, $34.25 million value, $14.25 million salary
2015 – +6.5 WAR, $39.0 million value, $14.5 million salary
Total: +27.5 WAR, $152.0 million value, $49.5 million salary
In the best case scenario outcome, Upton is worth over $100 million beyond what he’ll be paid by the time he reaches free agency. This is the Reggie Jackson payoff, essentially. And this is why every team in baseball will at least be exploring whether Upton is priced to move or not.
These are not the only two outcomes, of course. He could regress (ZIPS lists his number one comparison as Danny Tartabull, for instance) or get injured. My expectations of continued salary inflation over the next five years could be wildly wrong. Teams will have to look at the broad spectrum of possible returns if they give up the farm to get Upton. However, given that he’s already a good player and wouldn’t need to improve much to be worth well more than his contract, and that he offers the upside to be among the best values in the game, the market for Upton is likely to be overflowing with interested teams.
And in the end, I expect Arizona will come to the realization that they should probably just hang onto their young right fielder.
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Where’s his best fit? Strikes me that the Braves have to be up there. They’ve got the young pitching and could always move Heyward to CF. I’d prefer they go out and trade for Rasmus, but a package of Delgado, Minor, and Infante has to be a decent starting point if the D’Backs are really that down on him, right?
I’d imagine the asking price would be more along the lines of Hanson, Freeman, Teheran, and something else. No one will get Upton for a platter of decent prospects and a utility infielder.
If the DBacks wanted Hanson, Freeman AND Teheran then the answer would be a definite NO from the Braves. I try to be a realistic Braves fan but that seems way too much to me. Delgado and Minor are both A prospects. Minor is a major league ready strikeout throwing lefty. Calling him “decent” is a bit of an undersell. As for Hanson I would rate him as being equal to Upton (or only slightly less in value).
I think something along the lines of Jurrjens, Teheran, and Salcedo would be a good start.
Hanson alone has a similar value as the low end for Upton. Hanson was a 4.5 win player last year and has 4 years of team control left, one of which is at league minimum. There is no way they package Hanson with either of those two players, let alone both of them. A cost controlled “ace”, a top-5 prospect, and a top 30 prospect would an absurd amount of value for any one player.
I don’t think the Braves even entertain the idea of trading Hanson, who is too much a part of their 2011 plans. But I don’t see this happening without one of Freeman or Teheran, plus a couple of the other highly touted arms in the Braves system.
How about… Grienke and one of thier prospects?
Ok…and the Snakes could ASK the Nats for Bryce Harper and Stephen Strasburg, but in both cases, the conclusion would be the same: they have no interest in moving Upton.
“Delgado and Minor are both A prospects.”
No they aren’t.
:Hanson alone has a similar value as the low end for Upton.”
No he doesn’t. Pitchers are incredibly volatile.
JH, John Sickels has preliminary grades as Minor as an A- and Delgado as a B+ with both guys having the potential to be #2 starters.
They’re both plenty good.
Correct me if I’m wrong, but I believe neither A- or B+ is the same as “A.”
@ Dave Cameron
You’re suggestion is just as ridiculous as bsally’s, just in the opposite direction. A deal centered around either Hanson or Teheran would probably be a reasonable starting point. Obviously a lot more would need to be added, but that would be an incredibly strong start. On one hand you’ve got 5 years of team control over a SP that just went for 4.3 WAR and looks like as good of a bet as a young pitcher can be for being durable (~170 IP including AFL in 2008, 190+ in 2009, 200+ in 2010 without any noticeable ill affects). On the other hand you’ve got one of the top 3 SP prospects in baseball. Upton’s a hell of a player, but you don’t trade both of those guys, along with a highly regarded prospect like Freeman, and other pieces with value for him.
Something that might make since for both sides could be Hanson, Minor, Vizcaino, and a lottery ticket like Schafer or Bethancourt. Or if they want all upside, something like Teheran, Delgado, Carlos Perez (currently shooting up prospect lists; #1 Appy League prospect according to BA), and some other solid pieces. If the Dbacks like some of those particular guys, those deals make sense value wise. If their scouts aren’t high on them, then the Braves probably aren’t a match anyway.
That package is laughable, no one in their right mind would do that….2 projected #1 starting pitchers + a highly rated 1B prospect + someone else…wow. Even the guy below has a crazy offer Jurrjens is a cost controlled SP that has proven to be quite good + the #1 Braves pitching prospect + a highly touted and sought after SS prospect.
I wouldn’t touch Upton if this is the price tag you guys are thinking.
Brent,
To take it even further, there’s no way the Braves are getting rid of Freeman. They have no other options at 1B and making one huge hole to fill another makes absolutely no sense.
Agreed, though Freeman is more replaceable at least in the short term, as there are some decent 1B values on the FA market, including Derrek Lee who everyone on the Braves seemed to really like.
and it is much harder to find a slugging first baseman than it is a young All-Star RF’er?
It is for the Braves. This will be the 11th or 12th season in a row where they’ve had a different 1B on Opening Day.
My guess is that the Braves would be quite content to part w/ Freeman in a package to acquire Justin Upton. First basemen are much more fungible than guys with Upton’s potential.
braves have the pitching depth, but they already traded omar infante for uggla. they need the offense more than their pitching depth though, so trading for upton can help. he does need to stop K-ing so much, though. an outfield featuring heyward and justin upton would be an incredibly talented, young, and affordable outfield.
Oh wow, I feel like an idiot. I can’t believe I typed Infante, I meant Teheran.
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I know this is mostly done for illustration’s sake, but is there a reason you’re assuming a linear increase of .5 WAR per season. Despite his youth and promise, that kind of career path seems unlikely.
The aging curve for young position players is pretty smooth. It is, of course, unlikely that any one player follows the exact path, but the expected path of all players like Upton is something not too far from that.
Shouldn’t the “Upton Becomes Elite” WAR total be 27.5, not 21.5? Threw me off for a second.
Gose + Drabek + Farquhar and he’s a Blue Jay.
Jays have plenty 1-3 pitching prospects and Gose projects to be almost as high as Upton. Throw in a relief prospect, and Arizona should jump at it.
whaaat? Why don’t they throw in Stephen Drew while they are at it?
“Gose + Drabek + Farquhar and he’s a Blue Jay. ”
Yeah, no.
“Gose projects to be almost as high as Upton”
Uhh what?
it’s canada man… the cold weather makes the blood thicken… makes the brain slow…
Maybe it’s drug humor?
There was no option to “reply” to the Greinke comment, but I just wanted to say that, as a Royals fan, I hope Towers is interested. Greinke and one of the pitchers?
as a royals fan… why would you want to trade away greinke?? he’s the first guy in a long time who’s mental issues might actually KEEP him on a small market team.
I don’t WANT to trade him, but it’s becoming apparent that they may have to. He’s made it pretty clear that another extension is unlikely.
I would think that the first move would be to try to trade him to a team that will actually sign him, since Greinke has a bunch of no-trade teams to begin with. Aiming for an Arizona trade, to take away *their* cost controlled young stud for your no longer controlled stud would be highly unlikely.
I’d almost guarantee that the 3 big markets (NY/BOS/PHI, CHI, and LA) and a bunch of crappy teams like the diamondbacks/nationals/pirates are on that list.
I would guess a three team trade is more likely. If the D-Backs are in full rebuild mode, Greinke does them little good.
How bout Greinke to the Rangers, Upton to the Royals, and a ton of great prospects to the D-Backs? The Royals and Rangers are two organizations that have the prospects to make this happen.
Makes sense for the Rangers because they are in win-now mode and Greinke gives them the ace they need to replace Lee if he goes (and just imagine if Lee stays! What a rotation!)
Makes sense for the Royals because it helps sell the team while the prospects come up, Upton is young and signed long-term, and they have the depth to give up a prospect or two.
Makes sense for the D-Backs because they get a ton of A/B+ prospects.
If they’re going to trade Greinke, they should be thinking about a guy like Upton. The same is true for the D-backs: if they’re going to trade Upton, they should be thinking about a guy like Greinke. It’s a pretty good starting point for a trade.
Shouldn’t Upton’s home/road splits be cause for some concern:
Home: .384 wOBA
Road: .326 wOBA
Granted nearly everyone hits better at home and he has to play 18 games a year in Petco and AT&T Parks but that’s still a sizable edge. Maybe he’s just like his brother (.340 career wOBA) without the defense and speed.
Justin Upton doesn’t have good defense? Seriously?
I think he was referring to the fact that Justin’s not a CF, so his defense isn’t as good as BJ’s.
At least I hope so, because all available evidence says Justin’s got a great glove in the corner.
Ah, gotcha. That makes more sense.
Dammit, I used a different name. That was retarded…
Especially since white Jesus was probably black or brown if he existed.
If he’s anything like Tartabull then the first thing he needs to do is fix that swing…Tartabull would open up his shoulder terribly.
Pretty sure the comp isn’t based on mechanics.
It’s a Seinfeld reference….
tbad – a swing and a miss…
he’s too young and too cheap and under control for too long to be traded. the return would have to be astronomical and i don’t think teams are going to want to make that kind of bet. you’d almost literally be giving up a farm system for him and while he’s good, and may be great, unless you’re getting Reggie Jackson you’re not going to make that gamble.
This is the same guy that made the Dan Haren trade because Joe Saunders was a “winner.” Who knows what he’ll demand for Upton…
Um, no. Not the same guy.
That was Dipoto, not Towers.
My bad. I assumed Dipoto would be back. Thanks for the correction.
Actually, not only did DiPoto make that trade, rather than Towers, but the real centerpiece was Skaggs, not Saunders.
Given a choice of Oh My God dollars over How Long Did You Say years for Werth and trading for Upton, I know which I’d prefer for my beloved Red Sox (the latter).
I’m still annoyed that Justin Upton doesn’t have a nickname anywhere near as cool as his brother’s.
I rather like my nickname.
Wasn’t Jesus black?
J-Man is his nickname
Downtown.
I think a package of Martin Prado (to play 3B after trading away Mark Reynolds), Jair Jurrjens, and Aroldys Vizcaino could get a Justin Upton deal done. The Snakes net a cornerman, a young #2 pitcher, a high ceiling pitching prospect and whatever they can get for Reynolds. They could close up a lot of holes quickly with that move.
Vizcaino suffered a partially torn elbow ligament this season. He opted for rest and rehab instead of surgery…which basically means he’ll need surgery. I don’t see the D-Backs liking that package very much.
I’m not sure Jurrjens or Prado has a lot of value for the D’Backs who are probably looking at a ‘from-the-ground-up’ type rebuild.
Lars Anderson, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Jed Lowrie should be more than enough for Theo to get ‘er done.
Oh, wait, I thought this was MLB Trade Rumors. nm
Dom Brown, Jarred Cosart/Trevor May and Jon Singleton. Phils get their righty bat to play RF, bat 5th, and get younger, while DBacks get a RF to replace Upton with very high upside (and under control for 6 more years), plus a potential #2 starter to pair with Jarrod Parker and a future 1B.
Projected talent-wise, this is a very good package, but it’s unlikely the DBacks would take two guys in Cosart/May and Singleton who were 2+ years away each.
that is similar to the package I was thinking of. Kind of scary to just toss away 3 blue chippers but I would really love having justin upton in philly. I love trevor may and jared cosart and think they have a chance to be more impressive than Drabek as they ascend. but upton’s stellar deal, tools, and age make him as close to a can’t miss star as possible.
Dave, surprised you didn’t mention Upton’s SS%. Sure, his K% hasn’t decreased as hoped. But his SS% during his full seasons has gone: 13.8% –> 12.0% –> 10.2%. A very good trend (mostly as a result of him making more contact on pitches in the strike zone).
If he can make some marginal improvements in O-contact% and/or O-swing%, he’ll be the monster everyone expected.
If the Red Sox were to get involved, Kelly would have to be part of the deal, and personally as a Diehard fan, and an objective analyst, I would be more than happy, with the Sox current rotation and pitcher volatility to give Hanson up for a 5-tool RF in Upton…..
Kelly, Britton/Pimontel, Rizzo, Fuentes, Kalish (whom I believe could grow into a very similar player to that of JD Drew w/ a slightly lower BB rate) would get the job done most likely…..Thats an A, A-, B+, and a 2 B prospects……
The only player that is untouchable in any trade is Iglesias imho…..
Kelly would only be traded for a young player with 4-5 plus years of relatively cheap commitment, like an Upton or Rasmus….
to give up Kelly* for a 5-tool RF in Upton
if the braves traded hanson, teheran, and freeman it would be a tremendous mistake. why give up 2 of your best young arms along with the first baseman of the future for a player who’s upside is unknown?
I think his upside is less unknown than Teheran (40 IP at AA) or Freeman (a season in AAA + 24 PA in the majors). I mean, Matt Wieters’ OPS in AAA was only .008 points lower than Freeman’s, and look how he’s turned out so far. we know that Upton definitely has the potential to post a .900 OPS in the majors – because he’s done it in a full season. Teheran and Freeman are great prospects, but we haven’t seen either of them in the majors for any significant length of time.
I would not give up Britton he looks way to much like a young Jon Lester for me to even think about moving him, but i like your trade offer with w/out him.
I think that a even trade of Rasmus for Upton would benefit both teams.
“Kelly, Britton/Pimontel, Rizzo, Fuentes, Kalish”
Why don’t we just give them all of our top 10 prospects to seal the deal.
Honestly the inability of people to propose even remotely fair deals (in either direction, Mike Minor does not get you Justin Upton) is astounding. I admit it’s not the easiest exercise in the world but come on people.
Um, the Diamondbacks would rightly take the rumored Nolasco/Morrison combo over that package. Both are much better than any of the players in that Boston package.
Some of these hypothetical deals are ridiculous. Upton’s perceived value is high, much higher than Colby Rasmus’.
Any team that wants Upton will have to wow Towers, and that’s saying alot.
There are only a handful of teams that even have the quality and quantity of prospects to get that kind of deal done.
Upton’s worth is based on current value, plus potential and there’s no one else on the market like that right now.
Colby Rasmus? Really?
I know there’s very little to do in the way of culture in St. Louis, but come on……..
Put down the Budweiser.
The problem with both Upton and Rasmus is that thei expectations of their potential is inflated.
Rasmus is not a guarantee to become Edmonds, nor is Upton a guarantee to become Bonds.
They may be as good now as they ever will be. Rasmus, in particular, does not have the rep of being a very disciplined player nor hard worker. Up to this point he probably has not needed to be, he’s probably always been the most talented guy on the field.
Upton’s value is likely much more than his current value given the tendency to look at how good a guy is at 23, and project his total awesomeness at 27.
We see 26 HRs at 22 and auto-assume that it’ll be 40 by age 28. It may never be over 30.
Still, he’s a young and healthy 4.5 WAR (IMO) OF. I’d pay him as if he needed to earn 4 WAR to make his contract, and anything else would be a bonus. So, I’d give him 15-17M/y for 4-5 years.
If you pay him as a 5-6 WAR OF, then you’re basically paying him as if everything will work out right all the time … and it won’t. It never will.
The peripherals favor Upton being better than he is, even if he never reaches Bonds-esque stardom. Even at his current production, he’s quite a bargain for the D-backs in RF.
Colby Rasmus has shown me nothing to indicate he will ever be anything close to Jim Edmonds, if that was even a reasonable comparison.
People of St. Louis……….you are the only people who see Rasmus in this light.
You will not hear GM’s mention Rasmus in the same sentence as Upton………even if it’s Justin’s under-achieving older brother!
Rasmus is entering his age 24 season with 5.8 WAR over 2 seasons. Upton is entering his age 23 season with 7.7 WAR over 3 seasons. Upton is worth more, but it’s not a huge difference… and Rasmus has posted a negative UZR over his career. from what I’ve read, he has the tools to be a plus defender in center field – that would increase his value (he had a negative UZR last season, and over his career his numbers are league average).
sorry, a bit absent-minded there. ignore the part where I say Rasmus has a negative UZR over his career
Upton’s best nickname is “The Justin Upton.”
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