Comments on: Justin Upton’s Future

By: Grant

Grant — Sun, 01 Feb 2009 02:20:45 +0000

Pretty tantalizing comps there. The other fourteen average 17 seasons, 9022 plate appearances, 35.8 Batting Wins, 8.5 All-Star appearances, and 2.31 MVP shares between them.

By: Teej

Teej — Sat, 31 Jan 2009 23:04:05 +0000

It’s not fair to arbitrarily pick a month and ignore it. You have to take the good with the bad.

For instance, what if I decide to throw out June? Then we have Upton hitting .278/.364/.519 for a wOBA of .372. That’s not fair either.

As to the claim that he regressed as the season went along, he definitely cooled off in May and June, but he barely played at all in July and August, and when he came back, he hit .278/.352/.570 the rest of the way.

Now, obviously there are sample-size problems with any sort of analysis that only involves a few months (and Upton had some insane home/road splits at well), but any hitter with Upton’s profile (power, patience and low contact%) is probably going to have some pretty wild swings from month to month because they put so few balls into play. Look at Upton’s BABIP numbers last year:

April: .384
May: .356
June: .179
Sept.: .340

I left out July (.333)and August (1.000!) because he played so little.

Considering we have two great months as bookends with some mediocrity in the middle, I don’t see any evidence that Upton got worse as the year went on or that he or the team would have been better served if he were in AAA. He had his ups and downs just like every other baseball player.

Some improvement in his ability to put the bat on the ball would surely be welcome, but not if it comes at the cost of his power and on-base ability. Not everyone can be Pujols. As it stands right now, Upton is playing at a major-league-quality level. And another year of punishing AAA soft-tossers wasn’t going to make him any better. Learning is done at every level, including the bigs. But it’s not like Upton’s out there taking his lumps and hurting the team. He was an above-average right fielder in 2008, strikeouts be damned.

By: shoewizard

shoewizard — Sat, 31 Jan 2009 20:39:40 +0000

I’ve looked at that comp before. It’s a valid one.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/shareit/xTE3

BP has this for his top 4

Bob Horner, BJ Upton, Daryl Strawberry, Jeff Burroughs

ZIPS has Ron Swoboda (yuck) and Dwight Evans

Oh….and filed under “fun with PRI” is this report. Nice sandwich there. ;)

http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/shareit/ncA5

By: Mike

Mike — Sat, 31 Jan 2009 17:12:37 +0000

Justin Upton is the next Andruw Jones without the defense. He will be a good player, but not the Griffey Jr. or A-Rod.

By: Terry

Terry — Sat, 31 Jan 2009 16:25:40 +0000

So does this mean Jay Bruce isn’t a bust :-)

By: Thedir K. Atron

Thedir K. Atron — Sat, 31 Jan 2009 06:39:55 +0000

What about Ivan Rodriguez?

Surefire first ballot HOF’er who debuted and had 288 at bats as a 19 year old.

Not sure if you weren’t counting catchers or if you just “forgot” him as a Mariners fan ;)

By: Jim

Jim — Sat, 31 Jan 2009 06:30:43 +0000

The whole point of the major leagues is to allow a player to develop, and come up gradually. The frequency of 19 year olds who could perform up to the level of a major league veteran, even a bad one, is pretty much limited to that list. Most would be so incredibly overwhelmed that they would never really adjust.

By: alex

alex — Sat, 31 Jan 2009 05:42:19 +0000

justin upton his good tool player,thats it,now is what you do with the tools and so far he do not look smart player or know to used to win,is like a boxer with good pop but never connect and never win,i dont is that good

By: Josh B.

Josh B. — Sat, 31 Jan 2009 04:04:29 +0000

Bob,

You might want to check out his sept. stats before you claim that he “regressed” as the season went on, when clearly he had a great start and finish.

By: shoewizard

shoewizard — Sat, 31 Jan 2009 00:54:58 +0000

Bob:

You wrote:

“But the big point is the DBacks have “paid” two years in service time ”

Sorry to rain on your “big point”, but you are wrong. They have not “paid” or used two years of service time, they’ve only used just barely over 1 year of service time, and still have 5 more years of control. (Perhaps you are confusing rookie status with service time…..a common mistake)

Upton will not be a free agent until after the 2013 season. I realize railing on the D Backs is the flavor of the month around here, but I think the commentary here would have more cred if people took the time to get the facts straight.