Justin Verlander’s Whiff Rate
In 2009, Detroit Tigers right-hander Justin Verlander took his performance to another level. The Old Dominion product punched out 7.19 batters per nine innings and issued 3.27 walks per nine frames during his first three full seasons in the majors, with a 4.17 FIP, a 4.48 xFIP and an average of 3.5 Wins Above Replacement per year. But last season, Verlander was an absolute force — he had 10.09 K/9 and 2.36 BB/9, posting a 2.80 FIP, a 3.26 xFIP and 8.2 WAR. That WAR total tied Verlander with Tim Lincecum for second among big league starters, trailing only Zack Greinke. Over the winter, the Tigers locked up Verlander with a five-year, $80 million contract that keeps him in Detroit through 2014.
While Verlander’s tour de force 2009 was impressive, it would have been irresponsible to just assume he’d keep pitching like that from now on. Prior to the 2010 season, CHONE projected that Verlander would have 8.81 K/9, 2.88 BB/9 and a 3.46 FIP, while ZiPS had a forecast of 8.9 K/9, 3.08 BB/9 and a 3.49 FIP. The FANS thought he would keep more of those ’09 gains, projecting 9.53 K/9, 2.59 BB/9 and a 3.41 ERA.
So far, the second overall pick in the ’04 draft is pitching well, if not at last year’s torrid pace. He’s got a 3.38 FIP and 2.5 WAR in 103 innings. His xFIP sits at a less impressive 4.10, due to a 5.8 percent home run per fly ball rate that’s below his 8.2 percent career rate entering the season and the 11 percent big league average. Verlander’s walk rate (3.15 BB/9) is a smidge higher than the projections. His K rate (8.13 K/9) is a bit further off the mark — basically eight to nine strike outs below the CHONE and ZiPS projections, and 16 below the more optimistic FAN forecast. While the difference is by no means alarming, I thought it would be interesting to compare Verlander’s 2009 season to his previous work, showing some of the reasons why his punch out rate has gone from stratospheric to merely excellent.
The 27-year-old is doing a fantastic job of getting ahead of the hitter — his first pitch strike percentage has actually improved from 62.1% in ’09 to 65.3% this year (62.1% average from ’06 to ’08). However, batters are having an easier time connecting with his stuff, both inside and out of the strike zone.
Verlander’s in-zone contact rate was 83.4% in 2009, but it’s 87.3% in 2010. That’s somewhat below the 88% MLB average, but above his 86.8% in-zone contact rate from 2006-2008. Opponents also seem to be fending off more of Verlander’s chase pitches — his out-of zone contact rate was 58.8% in ’09 (61.7% MLB average that year), but it’s up to 71.9% this season (66.6% MLB average). His O-contact rate was 66.7% from 2006-2008 (the MLB average ranged from 57.4% to 61.7% over that time frame).
In 2009, Verlander induced swinging strikes a whopping 11.3 percent of the time (8.3-8.6% MLB average in recent years). That was the third highest rate among qualified major league starters, and well above his 8.4% average from 2006-2008. This season, Verlander’s swinging strike rate sits at 8.2 percent.
In terms of pitch type, the biggest difference between Verlander ’09 and Verlander ’10 is his hopping mid-nineties fastball. According to Pitch F/X data from TexasLeaguers.com, Verlander got a whiff with his heater 10.6 percent of the time in 2009. This season, he’s getting a whiff 6.3 percent of the time that he rears back and fires (the MLB average is around six percent). His curve is also getting fewer misses — 6.3%, compared to 8.6% last season (11.6% MLB average). The whiff rate on Verlander’s changeup is unchanged (20.5% in ’09, 20.4% in 2010, 12.6% MLB average). For comparison, Verlander’s fastball had a 6.2% whiff rate in 2008, his curve got a whiff 10.1% and his changeup was swung through 11.8%.
It seems as though Verlander is settling in at a performance level somewhere between that of his first three seasons and last year’s fire-breathing dominance. He’s not whiffing ten batters per nine frames again, but that really shouldn’t have been the expectation anyway.
(Note: In 2009, the Pitch F/X system classified almost all of Verlander’s fastballs as four seamers. This year, About 10% of his fastballs are classified as two-seamers. Whether that’s an actual change by Verlander or the result of a change in pitch classification by Pitch F/X, I’m not quite sure.)
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Verlander’s K-spike seemed a bit too much last year and owners expecting it to stay as high as it was really should kick themselves.
On a side note, I think you mean to say “In 2008″ in your first sentence…
The fact that owners this season valued Verlander near the level of King Felix actually cracks me up. If you do a standard deviation of their respective career rates, you’ll see King Felix is the king of consistency.
It’s criminal that Verlander’s going to get paid slightly more, in my opinion
http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2010&month=0&season1=2009
09-10 seasons, look it up, see where Felix is compared to JV then ask why people compare them.
The only reason Felix is more valuable is because he’s younger and arguably because he’s a ground ball pitcher.
If you don’t want to I’ll paraphrase the results. JV has the 2nd highest WAR over a two year span, 5th highest FIP, both better than Felix.
Why?
Its not like 25ish year old pitchers having their K rates spike (and be real) is unprecedented.
Verlander Lester
(24) 8.2 (23) 7.1
(25) 7.3 (24) 6.5
(26) 10.1 (25) 10.0
(27) 8.1 (26) 9.3
I think JV obviously has the same level of “stuff” he did last year, but the difference is a combination of hitters perhaps scouting him a bit more after last years success and some pitch selection issues I have noticed with him.
The selection issue deals with location AND pitch type IMO… He doesn’t throw his FB off the plate inside as often as I think he should, and he doesn’t throw his curve or change starting on the low inside and dropping off the table as much as he should. JMO
My reason for this thinking is that hitters appear to have an easier time fouling off the high FB and the outside corner FB this year than they did previosly (all I have to go by is my impression, though, no stats). If he would knock hitters off the plate more often with inside FB’s, throw that curve in the dirt at their feet (for lefties), and start his change low and inside (on lefties) and then drop out of the K zone in the dirt over the plate a few times per game per hitter (and vise versa for righties), they would have a much tougher time anticipating pitches based on initial apparent lacation, leading to more swings and misses. Right now, I think hitters can get a good idea based on count and pitch location what the pitch is as soon as they see where it appears to be going.
I hope what I wrote makes as much sense to you guys as what I’m thinking does in my head lol
Verlander had terrible K/9 rates coming out of April last year if I remember correctly. Not that I expect him to get back to 10+ K/9, but if you give him until the end of the year then he should be back in the 8.8-9.2 K/9 range.
Plus I think there’s a little bit of management wanting Verlander to pitch to contact a bit more so he could go longer in games without throwing as many pitches as he did last year.
10K’s tonight in your face! You got nothing to say now tiger hater!
I’m hoping this is parody.
(Especially considering that outing was against the toothless Mariners)
His slider looked was as good, by far, as he’s ever thrown it. On a particular night, when his stuff isn’t 100% nasty, hitters are able to foul off his fastball and still re-adjust to hit his curve. An effective slider to fill that large velocity gap between the FB and CB/CU would make him a lot more consistent from start to start, by giving him more of a strikeout pitch on his off-nights.
His change sits at almost the same velocity that his slider does, so the argument that the slider gives him something to fill in that gap doesn’t make any sense.
2 issues with your comparisons here:
2008 was an off year (3.9BB, 7.3K per 9), but it is being lumped in with 2006 and 2007. His K/9 in his breakout 2006 season was 6.0, so I think it’s hard to say he is “settling in” to a middle of road, when he’s really been all over it.
As someone mentioned, Verlander had horrible ’09 and ’10 Aprils, so that is weighing down his 2010 year-to-date stats.
Its off topic, but I was just thinking about how fast Verlander would throw as a reliever. I wonder if it would be as speedy as a Zumaya fastball. I shudder to think!
@Relieving: Verlander used to be able to get up to 101-102 pretty consistently, so it’s probable.
Anyway Verlander’s K/9 is back up to the 8.6 range. Should continue rising with his next start against the Indians..
Final tally, 8.89 K/9, 2.84 BB/9, I guess people really shouldn’t write these reviews about JV in the middle of a season which includes his April stats.
I really don’t see much of a difference in his K and BB rates that can’t be explained by random variance, especially when you compare all his secondary data from Pitch fx.
In addition, 5th best FIP, tied for 3rd best WAR.
He’s fine, a little more good fortune (an era that actually is lower than his FIP for once) and he’s bagging a Cy Young.
Verlander pitches with pressure for about 120 games of every season while King Felix and the Mariners are 15 games out of first place before the all-star break.
Verlander struck out more guys per 9 innings than Hernandez, gave up less homeruns, had a slightly worse walk ratio… but obviously had more wins and a much worse ERA. This all comes down to BABIP… Verlander’s was .289 while Hernandez had a pretty freaking low .265.
Also Verlander threw 16 innings less than the season before, while King Felix in the second straight season threw far too many innings for a young guy playing for a last place team. One guy is 6’5 and built to pitch, the other guy looks a bit out of shape at times, and doesn’t look as tall as stated(he’s not 6’3.) Something tells me Verlander is the guy who holds up for another 10-12 years while putting up impressive numbers while King Felix flames out. He’s 24 with 1154 innings under his belt. Remember Doc Gooden?
Well if Verlander is making 120 pressure appearances every year, my money is on Felix to last longer