Comments on: K-Rod signs with Mets

By: Sun

Sun — Wed, 12 Aug 2009 15:48:18 +0000

Wow, obvioulsy I mean “write”, not “right”. Cringe-worthy error there.

By: Sun

Sun — Wed, 12 Aug 2009 15:47:40 +0000

It’s ok, I’m still reading what you right, Joe.

By: Joe R

Joe R — Wed, 12 Aug 2009 02:47:50 +0000

And evidently I’m the only man who cares.

By: Joe R

Joe R — Tue, 11 Aug 2009 16:41:09 +0000

So it looks like the K-Rod luck train is finally starting to de-rail.

Since June 18th (the day he blew a save vs. Baltimore):
19 G, 7 SV, 1-2, 8.15 ERA, .274/.398/.507, 1.98 WHIP, 1.067 K/BB, 7.64 BB/9.

SSS alert, sure, but his numbers have screamed regression for a long time now, and now he’s been rocking a WHIP nearly 2x his K/BB, and he’s currently being hit like he’s facing A-Rod every batter faced. Awesome $37,000,000, Mets.

By: Joel

Joel — Wed, 10 Dec 2008 06:58:52 +0000

theres also the DH vs PH thing. Having a DH in the lineup is much more conducive to offense because DHs are paid to hit whereas PH are more often role players who are better than the worst hitter in the lineup (and pitcher) but not good enough to get an everyday gig

By: lookatthosetwins

lookatthosetwins — Wed, 10 Dec 2008 02:00:01 +0000

He knocks down the FIP because the National league is poorer offensively without counting the pitchers.

By: bdavis

bdavis — Wed, 10 Dec 2008 01:41:14 +0000

EDIT: whoops… I didn’t even keep reading the article. I see you accounted for closers never facing pitchers. But why would you knock down the FIP at all then?

By: bdavis

bdavis — Wed, 10 Dec 2008 01:39:19 +0000

Hey Dave,
In your article you mention we need to “knock down” K-Rod’s FIP “because he’s switching leagues.” I’d agree with this in theory since NL pitchers get to face their pitching counterparts a few times a game, but when does a closer ever face a pitcher? Like I said, in theory NL pitchers do. But, the reality is closers would never face a pitcher, but rather a pinch hitter.

By: Dave Cameron

Dave Cameron — Wed, 10 Dec 2008 00:58:18 +0000

So what ARE you saying happens when a closer goes down?

In the off-season? They get a new closer.

If this was July and the Mets were currently using Aaron Heilman as their closer, I’d agree with you. It’s not. The Mets were always going to acquire a proven closer this winter. There’s no bullpen chaining going on in Queens.

By: CMC_Stags

CMC_Stags — Tue, 09 Dec 2008 23:45:12 +0000

Dan – I also wonder if chaining is appropriate given the context of it being early in the off-season. The Mets were going to acquire a “proven” closer. Using chaining to value any of them doesn’t make much sense as they would all have had identical chaining effects (assuming they would have all pitched an equivalent number of innings for the Mets given the same number of “closer-worthy” situations). Now if the Mets make a late move or a trade during the season and the rest of the staff was set in stone, then I think chaining might be a worthwhile argument to make.

What we should be evaluating (and I think what Dave is doing) is measuring how did the Mets do in the contract they are giving K-Rod versus the established market for closers. Determining his value versus what the Mets’ alternatives are/were is where the action is.

It’s also interesting that until the K-Rod deal, every FA signing so far this winter seemed to be for significantly lower than $5M / WAR.