Good call.

+1 for nerds

I’m thinking that bringing back Bo Jackson or Steve Balboni at first base instead of Jacobs could be a defensive step up depending on how well Bo gets around on that artificial hip, and how well Balboni gets around in his wheelchair.

The Royals will even sell more tickets with the move! Just think of the human drama! George Brett attending games cheering on Bo or Balboni vying to be the first man to win a strikeout title in three separate decades!

It is amazingly puzzling when looking at the Mike Jacobs trade. GM’s, at least today in the modern game, SHOULD have a clear understanding of statistics, or at least know enough to surround themselves with those who DO understand them.

Mike Jacobs is a bad first baseman. There’s really no other way to sugar coat this. With his strikeouts, and % of balls put in play leading to outs, if he has a good year like last year and hits 30HR’s he nets you ZERO wins. Last year, by most projections, was a good year for Jacobs and it is not even clear he can repeat those numbers, in fact he is not expected to according to most projections. If this happens it means he will COST your team wins above replacement. Yes, Ross Gload was also bad, but actually, believe it or not, he was only like .8 games worse. So what does this all mean?

I’ll tell you what it means. It means that the Royals traded a serviceable reliever, (a reliever who have been kept or traded for something else useful) for a player so bad that on a good year he’s worth +ZERO wins to your team, a player who must be paid money for several years, a player who could actually be worth negative wins next year if he can’t repeat. The type of player who blocks anything serviceable that could be picked up from the minors or a trade or engineered between Gordon or Butler.

So I’m just trying to comprehend this move. Is it out of sheer statistical ignorance? Is it about Moore thinking he needs a token power hitter to sell tickets? If so could we just bring Bo Jackson or Steve Balboni back instead?

And we are told this is a good move for the Royals. Now they have a power hitter, and established first baseman. Hooray! A new player!

http://www.royalsreview.com/2008/10/19/638368/how-good-is-a-1-2-3-4-5-st
http://www.statcorner.com/blog/2008/10/rotation-slots-by-tra.html

Investing many millions in below average and replacement level players is about the worst thing a GM can do. Well, I guess he could have given Greinke his unconditional release. That would have been worse.

The Royals may very well be .500 next season but they WILL NOT be the 2008 Rays, and the moves they made in the off-season will not help their improvement as much as the individual improvements of people like Hochevar, Butler, Gordon, etc.

Gordon has a ton of raw power. He had an OPS+ of 110 last year and had 20+ HR power last year, along with a 91 point difference between batting average and OBP. I don’t see what among his numbers indicates that he is or was struggling last season…and given his 2nd half numbers..a breakout seems very possible. He even got better against LHPs towards the latter part of last season. Gordon is in no danger whatsoever of being platooned and will almost certainly be a solid 3B next year, potentiall a pretty good one. He improved in literally every single category last year..especially in the 2nd half of the year, where the improvment was dramatic and clearly visible. He’ll be fine. He may never live up to the insane George Brett hype, but he’s already a decent hitter and will only be 25 next year.

I don’t think they are an 85 win team with “no improvement.” I think they are about a .500 team right now. Some players need to continue to develop to get there, but I don’t think they need an extraordinary amount of “breaks” or things going right to get there. Take away the ABs of Gload, Tony Pena Jr. and Joey Gathright. There’s a little improvement. Gordon gets a little better perhaps. Butler (showing up to ST in good shape for the first time, by all accounts) gets a little better. Aviles for a full season. Callaspo (.361 OBP last year) perhaps for a full season. Hochevar and Davies improve. All of those things are realistic. I don’t expect every single thing to happen, but I think you can count on some of them happening….and I think that projects to a fairly decent team..and given the weakness of the division…who knows.