Comments on: Kelly Johnson: A DeRosa Alternative

By: Game Of Inches blog

Game Of Inches blog — Sun, 27 Dec 2009 23:17:15 +0000

Couldn’t agree more. Didn’t notice this post until I was finishing up a similar one I wrote myself. If you normalize Johnson’s triple slash line to accommodate his .313 xBABIP (assuming all singles), it looks to the tune of .278/.350/.443 (.797 OPS). If you consider some rebound in power, a +800 OPS guy at a bargain comes nice. Plus, DeRosa’s .286 BABIP matched his xBABIP of .285…

I would predict Johnson’s 50% prob. line closer to .275/.355/.450 (.805) mext season. 3 years, $9 million with a $7 million option for 2013 ($1 mil buyout) seems utterly reasonable (that’s paying for less than 1 WAR per)

http://gameofinches.blogspot.com/2009/12/cubs-should-really-consider-signing.html

By: lookatthosetwins

lookatthosetwins — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 04:11:15 +0000

As a Twins fan, KJ has been towards the top of my wishlist for the offseason. He would be cheap enough that the Twins could sign another infielder and have Punto be the utility guy. The Twins are also lacking OF depth, so he could help in that regard.

By: calbers

calbers — Mon, 07 Dec 2009 23:23:50 +0000

I saw Kelly a good bit when he was in AA and playing SS. I always got the impression that his hands were ok…range not so much. Watching him play in ATL I think probably holds true. A lot of his errors were moving left or right and not able to get squared up. However, he seemed to turn the double play ok. He did play some 3B in the minors and was projecting as a 3B before he had tommy john surgery a couple years ago. I suppose his arm can handle 3B. As for LF he looked good. He played about 1/2 a season or so at AA and AAA in the OF and played mostly CF. I have wondered if he couldn’t handle CF fulltime? (If I were the Braves I would have asked him to play CF in winterball-which would have helped his value.) However, I think the argument is that his bat hasn’t played enough to go into the outfield.

By: MBD

MBD — Mon, 07 Dec 2009 23:21:02 +0000

I’m of two minds about KJ. His 2009 was a big disappointment, and his power seemed to wane. His LD% was down to 17.9%, and his HR/FB numbers have been in the area of 7.5% in each of the past 2 seasons. That OBP of .303 was ugly. On the other hand, his BABIP in just 300 ABs (.249) was well below his career norm (.313), his Ks were down, and his walk rate wasn’t that far off his average, so he might bounce back.

I’d like to see more patience at the plate from a guy with great contact in the zone and only moderate power. He seems to have forgotten how to hit the change in 2009, which supports the idea that he was too anxious to swing. He was better in 2007, when he waited for his pitch. I’m trying to remember if that was the year he did a lot of leading off.

By: LeeTro

LeeTro — Mon, 07 Dec 2009 22:31:33 +0000

Could the Braves try Kelly in LF until they deem Heyward ready?

By: Matt Klaassen

Matt Klaassen — Mon, 07 Dec 2009 22:29:16 +0000

D’oh. Typo fixed.

By: shilzzz

shilzzz — Mon, 07 Dec 2009 22:20:20 +0000

marvin prado?

By: Peter

Peter — Mon, 07 Dec 2009 21:12:01 +0000

+/- likes KJ a lot more than UZR. I realize you’re not inclined to print Dewan’s numbers here, but it’s worth note, I think.

On the hole I think KJ is about average. Above-average range, especially up the middle, bad hands, shaky footwork, decent arm.

He makes too many errors, and fans’ opinion of his defense is sometimes disproportionately skewed by the visibility of these errors.