Kendrick and the “Hafta’ Counts”
Last year, Kyle Kendrick finished fifth in NL Rookie of the Year voting, following a successul 3/5 season with the Phillies. His performance supremely aided a depleted starting rotation and he was expected to be a key cog in their plans this year. Due to his low strikeout count and high home run total, Kendrick’s 3.87 ERA translated to a 4.90 FIP. All of the projection systems pegged him to experience a severe regression in 2008 and, after his first two starts, said systems hit the nail on the head. After his first two starts, Kendrick had lasted only 7.1 IP, surrendering 12 hits and eight walks while striking out just one batter. With an ERA of 6.14, a WHIP hovering near the 3.00 mark, and a ghastly K:BB of 0.13, Kendrick seemed primed for a sophomore slump.
Prior to last night’s game against the Astros, manager Charlie Manuel told broadcaster Chris Wheeler that Kendrick had to stay out of “hafta’ counts” to be successful. Inquiring what that meant, Manuel told Wheeler that Kendrick had to avoid counts wherein he would “hafta’” throw a strike. Manuel continued to say that, because Kendrick’s stuff is not overpowering, he needed to get ahead of batters; when he got himself into counts of 2-0, 3-1, or 3-0 batters could wait and rake. Coming into this start, here are Kendrick’s numbers against in these counts:
- After 2-0: 7 PA, 1-4, 2B, 2 BB, K, SF
- After 3-1: 8 PA, 0-3, 4 BB, SF
- After 3-0: 2 PA, 0-1, BB, K
And here are his numbers when throwing a first pitch strike: 22 PA, 5-18, 3 2B, 4 BB, 4 K.
From these numbers it appears that batters did not necessarily feast on Kendrick in these counts; however, he gave up two sacrifice flies and walked seven batters, which greatly contributed to his 11 surrendered runs on the season (5 earned). Of the 44 batters he faced first pitch strikes were thrown to just 22 of them, 50 percent.
From watching the starts it was evident Kendrick either got behind batters and struggled to recover or got ahead of hitters and proceeded to nibble until he lost them. Manuel told Kendrick to attack the batters and, last night at least, he surely did. Here is last night’s breakdown of his performance:
- After 2-0: 1 PA, L-9
- After 3-1: 1 PA, K
- After 3-0: Never had a 3-0 count
- After 0-1: 17 PA, 3-17, HR, 4 K
Kendrick really changed his approach, throwing a first pitch strike to 17 batters; as mentioned before he had done this just 18 times in his prior two starts. He only found himself in “hafta’ counts” twice and neither effected him. The game graph is below and his end line looked like: 7 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 5 K.
He threw 68 strikes out of 96 pitches, a much higher strike percentage than his previous two starts–91 strikes and 74 balls in 165 pitches prior to last night. Ironically, he lost the game as Roy Oswalt finally regained his form. If the Phillies seriously want to contend, Kendrick will need to build on this rather than let it be a positive outlier in a mostly negative season.
Tom Au said,
April 17, 2008 @ 2:29 pm
Looks like the Astros manager is onto something.
I’ve been doing a study of how pitch counts change BAAs for different pitchers. In Kendrick’s case, the numbers work out as follows:
Pitch Count BAA
0-0 .288 (This is low for an 0-0 pitch count; often BBAs > .300)
1-0 .314
2-0 .383
2-1 .317
These rises are high; many pitchers’ BAA rise at about half these rates over the 0-0 pitch count BAA when the ball count gets high.
0-1 .251
0-2 .250
1-2 .234
2-2 .230
These declines are low; many pitchers’ BAA fall into the .100s when the strike count gets high. Put another way, a batter isn’t that much worse off batting against Kendrick at 1-2 or 2-2 than at 0-0. His BAA is unusually sensitive to balls, and unusually insensitive to strikes.
Eric Seidman said,
April 17, 2008 @ 2:38 pm
Tom,
Good stuff. Do you mean Charlie Manuel the Phillies manager is onto something? I’m not nitpicking just making sure I understand the comment completely.
Of course this is all too small of a sample size to judge but I agree that, thus far, it appears to be exactly the way you said it. That could all change though if he comes out and pitches 8 shutout innings with 24/27 first pitch strikes, rarely getting behind the batter.
I think a lot of the reason his decline is low is due to his lack of strikeouts. More balls put in play provides a greater chance they will turn out as hits, whereas strikeouts prevent anything from being in play.
Eric Seidman said,
April 17, 2008 @ 2:41 pm
Tom,
Are your figures for his career?
Tom Au said,
April 17, 2008 @ 4:52 pm
Dear Eric:
I (mis)-read your piece as “Astros manager Charlie Manuel told broadcaster…” etc. And my figures for Kyle Kendrick are from 2007 (ESPN splits), etc., since 2008 figures suffer from small sample size problems.
How can I email you directly? I’m at tom@rwwentworth.com as you can see.
Tom
Eric Seidman said,
April 17, 2008 @ 4:56 pm
Yeah, I realized after the fact that your numbers must have been referring to 2007. Seidburns850@aol.com. Feel free to drop me a line anytime.
Kevin Orris said,
April 17, 2008 @ 9:54 pm
I saw Kendrick pitch against the Reds in spring training and he got hit hard. The defense was lacking that day, but he was giving up ground ball single after ground ball single. It was hard to watch him; he didn’t look composed and was frusterated with himself.
Maybe it’s all beacuse of that Japan trade….
Eric Seidman said,
April 17, 2008 @ 10:25 pm
Yeah he got hit around in the spring and, in his first two starts he was pretty badly squeezed. A guy like him lives on the corners and if he isn’t getting the calls he has two options: 1) continue to nibble and likely walk the batter or 2) give in and put 88-89 mph fastballs closer to the middle of the plate. Neither is very good. In this last start he attacked the hitters, establishing his accuracy, which helps umpires give the benefit of the doubt on calls (at least according to announcers).
The next start will be a true test. If he comes out and pitches an AQS or better it will greatly help his confidence and the team’s confidence in him. If he pitches anything like his second start then it is likely an internal time-clock will begin ticking.
Kevin Orris said,
April 18, 2008 @ 2:28 pm
Do you think there is a chance they send him down for a start or two to get his confidence up or to let him workin on his location?
He is still relatively young, and certainly isn’t helping the Phils much.