Kicking Hope In The Groin
It’s Opening Day – meaningful MLB games return to the daily schedule, and for the next six months, we can settle in and enjoy what should be a fun season. Everyone starts out at 0-0, and while not every team has the same amount of hope, everyone has some “what if” scenario where things could break their way and they could be playing in October. It’s a day full of optimism for everyone – the teams who were bad last year offering up reasons why this year will be different.
Except in Washington, where it’s apparently more of the same. Even with the GM having resigned in disgrace and promises of a new organization going forward, the Nationals have managed to screw it up. Elijah Dukes, the best player on the team, is not in the line-up today. He’s not injured. He’s not being punished for an off the field transgression. He just had a bad spring, and Austin Kearns had a good spring, and that was enough for Manny Acta to decide that Kearns should get the first chunk of the playing time pie that will be split up amongst the crowd of outfielders the Nationals have.
Dukes had a .382 wOBA last year to go along with a UZR/150 of +13.7. In about 60% of a season’s worth of playing time, he was worth 2.9 wins to the Nationals, which put him on a +5 win pace over a full season. Five win players go to the all-star game, sign really big contracts, and become heroes to their fans.
Dukes will spend Opening Day on the bench.
I like Kearns as much as (probably more, actually) the next guy, but he’s not Elijah Dukes. He’s got some rebound potential and could be a nice role player on a team that needs a good defensive OF who can hit a bit, but he’s an expiring contract with no real future in Washington. He’s not a franchise cornerstone. He’s not even someone who will be with the organization next year.
Seriously, Washington, you have a 24-year-old coming off a .382 wOBA and a +13.7 UZR/150. I don’t care if he went 0 for 60 in spring training – you should play him whenever he’s healthy. This isn’t the kind of talent that you ask to share playing time, especially not with the likes of Kearns or Josh Willingham.
Happy Opening Day, Nationals fans. Hope you weren’t planning on seeing the team’s best player.
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I think that you have to look at the entire picture. I presume that they are trying to build up trade value for Austin Kearns. It isn’t the the Nationals are going to come within 20 games of the playoffs this year, so they might as well try to get some young talent at the expense of a couple of wins.
Also, Manny Acta is probably the best manager in baseball. I am sure that he realizes that ST stats aren’t that important, and Dukes is a really good player.
When your bigger picture includes benching your best player, you need to hire a better artist.
And Manny Acta as the best manager in baseball? Reading The Book does not make him the best at his profession.
Agreed that it’s a stupid decision, but…
I’m not 100% convinced that this is a situation where Kearns is going to get 90% of the ABs. Likely, Dukes is going to get his 400+ ABs filling in there, at CF, especially as injuries crop up.
Reading between the lines, there’s probably a bit of a message being sent to Dukes. With Bowden the enabler gone, this could be Acta’s way of asserting a bit of authority.
But it does make him aware of things like hot streaks, OPB and defense. That leads me to think he knows that there is no way that Kearns is better than Dukes. So I think that this move is either only temporary for opening day, or it is a strategy to bump up Kearns trade value.
Vivaelpujols, I’m seriously in doubt of Acta’s skill. If he were aware of some of the more sabremetrically inclined stats, he doesn’t show it. Just look at his lineup construction:
1. Milledge
2. Guzman
3. Zimmerman
4. Dunn
5. Johnson
Even putting Milledge and Guzman’s OBP deficiencies aside (particularly Guz’s career .307! OBP), the fact that he’s putting Zimmerman ahead of Dunn and Johnson (OBP machines) doesn’t seem very smart.
I’m not saying he’s a great manager (that was a stupid thing for me to say). I was saying that because he read The Book and seems to be somewhat sabermetrically inclined, that he might understand that hot streaks have no predictive value and the importance of OPB and defense, two things that Dukes does very well.
But exactly how much trade value can Kearns bring anyway? He’s 29 now. He’s an OK player with recent injuries – and we’ve been discussing declining values of outfielders all offseason. We have essentially the same player in Willingham, so why not trade one of them, or WillyMo NOW. Maybe they can get a RP out of the deal. They need one bad enough.
Their bullpen is fine. They’ve got an interesting mix of young and veteran players. None of them really have a name, but on the list of the team’s problems, that’s low on the list.
Ok not the same player. But seriously I think the Nats could’ve made some moves to clear up the OF situation without seriously harming their long-term plans. The bullpen plain stinks IMO.
Nick Johnson’s and Elijah Dukes’ injury histories will probably clear up the logjam before too long.
I have a lot to learn about projections, but I have little faith in Tavarez; Saul Rivera can’t keep it up forever. Hanrahan as CP is not so good against the Mets, Phillies, Marlins offenses. This bullpen will most likely get worked hard and I’m pretty sure the bullpen will fall apart late in the season. i like Steven Shell though.
But I guess they don’t “stink” overall, just in comparison to say, the Mets for example. I should probably just stop talking now.
Well, I don’t think it’ll be a good pen.
But it’s got a real chance to be non-terrible. It’s a bunch of league average arms.
Tavarez, for example, is in there to be the mopup guy. He’ll be pitching in the really low leverage situations just to eat innings.
at the risk of sounding stupid, what is The Book?
insidethebook.com
That will pretty much answer all of your questions.
Morrow for Dukes? Anyone? Anyone?
I don’t mind the move, so long as it lasts a month and they talked it over with Dukes. I’d pull Dukes into a room late in spring training and say:
“Look, we think you are an integral part in the future of the franchise. But Bowden really F’ed up the outfield situation during the offseason. We really need to find a way to move a couple of the guys and the only way we can get something worthwhile in return is if we let them play a little. You are our guy going forward, but short-term we need to ask you to sit on the bench more than you would like and more that we would like so we can try and move at least one of the other veterans. If someone falls on their face, gets injured, or gets traded you will be in their everyday. But until then, I am asking you to make a short-term sacrifice for the betterment of the team and just accept a bench role for, at most, the first month or 2 of the season. We’ll still get you in their frequently and out goal is to have you a full-time player well before the all-star break, even if we can’t move one of the veterans.”
Kearns is more of a contract dump, even if he gets his offense back to where it was in 2007. I’d try to rebuild his trade value for a month (proving he’s healthy and that he can still swing it reasonably well). Then be willing to eat a couple million bucks and move him to a contender or someone with an injury. A decent prospect would be nice, but freeing up playing time for Dukes and payroll for the future is a bigger concern.
Yes, because Elijah Dukes has a long history of responding well to rational requests.
His wife tried it once…
Poor taste?
Obviously he might not respond well. But I think its a risk you take if this is how you are going to handle things. And I think from an organizational standpoint it makes sense to give Kearns, Johnson, and maybe even Wilingham a month of 75% playing time (or more) to try and give them some value. Everyone knows the Nats have a logjam and it will be nearly impossible to get full value because the Nats don’t have any trade leverage, but giving it a month or so doesn’t really affect Dukes longterm.
To me, the only way this is a bad decision is if you think the Nats have a realistic shot at the playoffs this year. Obviously you (Dave) don’t believe that, so I don’t really understand why this is so problematic to you. The Nats won’t contend and they put themselves in a better position long-term if they can get rid of at least one of Kearns/Johnson/Willingham ASAP.
This. Is. A. Terrible. Decision. Dukes contributes to the overall ability of the Nats to accomplish their objective more than Kearns across a variety of metrics. Considering this isn’t a prospect-v-prospect competition, and further than Dukes is younger and more talented, I can’t defend this from any sort of “this is our best team on the field” perspective. We know who Kearns is (many key peripherals in decline). We have seen what Dukes can be. If the objective is trade value — knowing full well the Nationals won’t be competing for a playoff spot (I’ll take 4th in the NL East, frankly), why not let Dukes show the rest of the league he is a talent worthy of acquisition? Isn’t this of greater value than any sort of return on talent in a trade involving AK-47 given the circumstances?
If Dukes is a talent worthy of acquisition — and it’s doubtful that given his off-field problems, anyone’s going to give you more than $.75 on the dollar for him — why would the Nats trade him? If he’s that good, they’ll play him, especially as he hits his prime.
I should have probably been more clear. If we agree on the following two things, first that the nationals won’t be competing this year (or next), and second that there is interest in acquiring talent at the cost of an outfielder, then my condition would apply: I agree with you (I believe this is what you having said earlier and are getting at in this specific post) that Dukes should play and can contribute positively to a rebuilding team, given his demonstration of ability and age.
And you may be quite right about return value. I would venture that if Dukes continues to improve in both talent and maturity, he may well be an asset to other teams whose improvement trajectory is greater than the Nats. I’ll mention Dukes came from an organization that has shown it can find above-average ballplayers not to be snarky but simply to support my conclusion that he is a good player and should continue to be a better player than Kearns.
If the Nationals can’t compete in the immediate future, are looking to move an outfielder, and are intent on acquiring the most talent in an effort to rebuild as much as possible (believing that you shouldn’t simply construct a skyscraper with windows, an elevator and no foundation) then it’s my position Dukes would command more trade value than Kearns. Whether the return is enough to merit the trade, I don’t know, which seems to be your central point. This is again recognizing that there may be reason for optimism in the immediate future which merits getting whatever you can for Kearns and continuing to build with what you have. In this case, Dukes seems to be serviceable provided continued improvement (both on and off-field).
Also, Justin Upton will not be starting in Arizona today because….actually I have no idea why Melvin decided to do this. Anyone out there know the method behind the madness?
The short answer is that Melvin’s an idiot. The long is that he’s playing an occasional platoon w/Upton and Mark Reynolds to get more PT for Tony Clark and Chad Tracy/Eric Byrnes. Of those five players, I’d think that Upton is the one guy you’d want to get in the lineup every day, being 21 years old and extremely talented and all.
http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20090405&content_id=4131804&vkey=news_mlb&fext=.jsp&c_id=mlb
melvin looked pretty smart today.
just kidding, but my jaw hit the floor when i saw tony clark went deep twice today!
Wait till Bradley goes down and trade Kearns to the Cubs.
Dave, isn’t this the same Elijah Dukes who you once suggested belongs in jail (over on USSM)? What’s changed your opinion of his character? Or are you strictly viewing this from the concern of talent?
Not to speak for Dave, but my stance is that character should affect moves at the GM level (trades, FA signings, any sort of player acquisition/release) in the sense that you use the player’s personal character as leverage in negotiations and factor it in to your risk assessment appropriately, but once the player is on the roster his character shouldn’t limit his playing time, barring extreme circumstances. If Dukes is clearly the best available player (which he appears to be), then he should be playing, especially on opening day.
And it’s not just Duke vs. Kearns. It’s understandable to want to try to build up Kearns’ trade value. It’s Duke vs. Kearns Dunn and Milledge. He should be starting over all 3 of them really.
Besides, if Dukes’ character is such a huge concern, you should be playing him as many games as possible before the police stop you.
I wish I had said ozay to this one instead but I read them out of order.
Upton has not hit Cook well in 9 ABs. At this rate Melvin will have to sit Upton against 30 or so other pitchers he hasn’t hit well in his career. As we are all aware, the best way to learn to hit a pitcher you have struggled against is to be benched against that pitcher for the rest of your career.
Seriously, if Kearns pushes Dukes out for any length of time, coupled with the fabulous move to release Shawn Hill, the entire Nationals management staff should be sent to the island from the show Lost where they can no longer hurt themselves or others.
*Shakes his head in disgust*
I have nothing to add here. I thought things were looking up when Bowden was fired.
I was wrong.
I’ve had it up to my chin with the “character” talk — perception fuels reality. When was the last time that the African-American guy was the “character” guy and the white dude was the “problem”?
I do believe Shea Hillenbrand was a problem. That said, your point is very well taken.
I have some sympathy to your issue, but you really picked the wrong player. Dukes has legitimate character issues.
As far as white “problems” A.J. Pierzynski comes to mind. Shilling was labeled a problem at points of his career. Plenty of black players are considered character guys. Jimmy Rollins is an example.
You’re right. Nothing says character like leaving an expletive filled message in which you threaten to kill your wife.
Ozay!
I am a huge Nats fan, and I would prefer Kearns in the lineup daily over Millage any day. Millage handed Bonifacio an inside the park homerun today by taking a bad route to the ball and then diving and missing. He also swung at every first pitch he saw. Dunn blew an easy play in LF, but then hit a home run. I beg the Nats trade Millage asap!!! He is an oaf!
I am praying Dukes becomes the everyday CF and Kearns stays in RF. We have a bunch of young pitchers and they need the best gloves possible on the field. With the Big Donkey in LF, Kearns has got to play RF. He is a very good RFielder. Plus, he was a pretty decent hitter until 2008. He could find it again. Just saying.
thank everything holy Nick the Stick was not traded
I call shenanigans!
You’re a huge Nats fan, but don’t know how to spell the starting CF’s name?
You’re assuming fandom implies intelligence. Elsewhere on the interwebs, I saw somebody debate whether or not to watch 24, because he’s a hardcore fan, or the NCAA title game, because he went to ‘Villinova’ (sic his). I weep for people sometimes.
shenanigans!
I’m so furious both as a Nats fan and as a Dukes fantasy owner that Dukes did not start that I’m practically purple. There is absolutely no explanation for why Dukes isn’t starting.
Even if you were toolsyist, gutsy, gritty and determined scout supporter you could just look at how they both play baseball and say, “Well s– Dukes is way better than this d-bag.”
I would seriously consider firing him and using a random name-picking machine to fill out the lineup everyday. It would make WAY more sense.
Dave. Have you looked at Kearns’ numbers? In 06 and 07 he was worth a combined 7.7 WAR, and a combined +29.5 runs on defense. Last year, he dropped to 0.6 WAR, but he continued to play excellent D. The only difference was that his offense took a huge hit, partially due to a .251 BABIP and a career low HR/FB ratio.
He is 29, so I doubt that last season represented a true decline in skills, it was probably a fluke. In that case, if he can return to 06/07 level of production, than it is debatable who is a better player next year. Considering that Kearns is getting payed money to play, this definitely seems like a feasible move.
I think we can all agree Kearns is not a bad player, and he’s certainly better than his 2008 stats suggest. If I had Mark Teixeira and Albert Pujols on the same team, I’d still bench Tex even though he’s a very good player. But that’s not the point.
Elijah Dukes, in 334 PA, was worth 2.9 WAR. Through those first 60+ PAs, he posted an OPS of about .500. Through the next 270 PAs, this dude was incredibly good.
I know it’s a small sample size, but if you extrapolate his 2008 number over a season, Dukes is worth 6+ WAR. What if he gets better? He is after all only 24 years old. This guy has the potential to be worth 6-8 WAR! HOW CAN YOU JUSTIFY BENCHING SOMEONE WITH THAT POTENTIAL?!
In his best season, Kearns peaked at 4.1 WAR. Dukes could match that even if he regresses this year. And it’s not like Dukes is an Adam “All-Hit-No-Defense” Dunn. He posted a 13.8 UZR/150 last year in RF. In the past three seasons, Kearns posted 14.4, 13.1 and 19.4 UZR/150.
Obviously Dukes should be playing. However, I am questioning Dave’s assumption that Kearns is only starting because of a hot spring. Personally, I would rather see Dunn, Dukes and Kearns and bench Milledge.