Comments on: Kicking Hope In The Groin http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/kicking-hope-in-the-groin/ Daily baseball statistical analysis and commentary Sun, 12 Feb 2012 22:26:37 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: vivaelpujols http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/kicking-hope-in-the-groin/#comment-71281 vivaelpujols Thu, 09 Apr 2009 22:14:00 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=4019#comment-71281 Obviously Dukes should be playing. However, I am questioning Dave's assumption that Kearns is only starting because of a hot spring. Personally, I would rather see Dunn, Dukes and Kearns and bench Milledge. Obviously Dukes should be playing. However, I am questioning Dave’s assumption that Kearns is only starting because of a hot spring. Personally, I would rather see Dunn, Dukes and Kearns and bench Milledge.

]]> By: Will http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/kicking-hope-in-the-groin/#comment-71094 Will Thu, 09 Apr 2009 03:37:50 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=4019#comment-71094 I think we can all agree Kearns is not a bad player, and he's certainly better than his 2008 stats suggest. If I had Mark Teixeira and Albert Pujols on the same team, I'd still bench Tex even though he's a very good player. But that's not the point. Elijah Dukes, in 334 PA, was worth 2.9 WAR. Through those first 60+ PAs, he posted an OPS of about .500. Through the next 270 PAs, this dude was incredibly good. I know it's a small sample size, but if you extrapolate his 2008 number over a season, Dukes is worth 6+ WAR. What if he gets better? He is after all only 24 years old. This guy has the potential to be worth 6-8 WAR! HOW CAN YOU JUSTIFY BENCHING SOMEONE WITH THAT POTENTIAL?! In his best season, Kearns peaked at 4.1 WAR. Dukes could match that even if he regresses this year. And it's not like Dukes is an Adam "All-Hit-No-Defense" Dunn. He posted a 13.8 UZR/150 last year in RF. In the past three seasons, Kearns posted 14.4, 13.1 and 19.4 UZR/150. I think we can all agree Kearns is not a bad player, and he’s certainly better than his 2008 stats suggest. If I had Mark Teixeira and Albert Pujols on the same team, I’d still bench Tex even though he’s a very good player. But that’s not the point.

Elijah Dukes, in 334 PA, was worth 2.9 WAR. Through those first 60+ PAs, he posted an OPS of about .500. Through the next 270 PAs, this dude was incredibly good.
I know it’s a small sample size, but if you extrapolate his 2008 number over a season, Dukes is worth 6+ WAR. What if he gets better? He is after all only 24 years old. This guy has the potential to be worth 6-8 WAR! HOW CAN YOU JUSTIFY BENCHING SOMEONE WITH THAT POTENTIAL?!

In his best season, Kearns peaked at 4.1 WAR. Dukes could match that even if he regresses this year. And it’s not like Dukes is an Adam “All-Hit-No-Defense” Dunn. He posted a 13.8 UZR/150 last year in RF. In the past three seasons, Kearns posted 14.4, 13.1 and 19.4 UZR/150.

]]> By: Nacho http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/kicking-hope-in-the-groin/#comment-70996 Nacho Wed, 08 Apr 2009 14:51:46 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=4019#comment-70996 shenanigans! shenanigans!

]]> By: vivaelpujols http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/kicking-hope-in-the-groin/#comment-70850 vivaelpujols Tue, 07 Apr 2009 19:53:46 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=4019#comment-70850 Dave. Have you looked at Kearns' numbers? In 06 and 07 he was worth a combined 7.7 WAR, and a combined +29.5 runs on defense. Last year, he dropped to 0.6 WAR, but he continued to play excellent D. The only difference was that his offense took a huge hit, partially due to a .251 BABIP and a career low HR/FB ratio. He is 29, so I doubt that last season represented a true decline in skills, it was probably a fluke. In that case, if he can return to 06/07 level of production, than it is debatable who is a better player next year. Considering that Kearns is getting payed money to play, this definitely seems like a feasible move. Dave. Have you looked at Kearns’ numbers? In 06 and 07 he was worth a combined 7.7 WAR, and a combined +29.5 runs on defense. Last year, he dropped to 0.6 WAR, but he continued to play excellent D. The only difference was that his offense took a huge hit, partially due to a .251 BABIP and a career low HR/FB ratio.

He is 29, so I doubt that last season represented a true decline in skills, it was probably a fluke. In that case, if he can return to 06/07 level of production, than it is debatable who is a better player next year. Considering that Kearns is getting payed money to play, this definitely seems like a feasible move.

]]> By: vivaelpujols http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/kicking-hope-in-the-groin/#comment-70845 vivaelpujols Tue, 07 Apr 2009 19:42:23 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=4019#comment-70845 I'm not saying he's a great manager (that was a stupid thing for me to say). I was saying that because he read The Book and seems to be somewhat sabermetrically inclined, that he might understand that hot streaks have no predictive value and the importance of OPB and defense, two things that Dukes does very well. I’m not saying he’s a great manager (that was a stupid thing for me to say). I was saying that because he read The Book and seems to be somewhat sabermetrically inclined, that he might understand that hot streaks have no predictive value and the importance of OPB and defense, two things that Dukes does very well.

]]> By: mymrbig http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/kicking-hope-in-the-groin/#comment-70758 mymrbig Tue, 07 Apr 2009 15:01:14 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=4019#comment-70758 Obviously he might not respond well. But I think its a risk you take if this is how you are going to handle things. And I think from an organizational standpoint it makes sense to give Kearns, Johnson, and maybe even Wilingham a month of 75% playing time (or more) to try and give them some value. Everyone knows the Nats have a logjam and it will be nearly impossible to get full value because the Nats don't have any trade leverage, but giving it a month or so doesn't really affect Dukes longterm. To me, the only way this is a bad decision is if you think the Nats have a realistic shot at the playoffs this year. Obviously you (Dave) don't believe that, so I don't really understand why this is so problematic to you. The Nats won't contend and they put themselves in a better position long-term if they can get rid of at least one of Kearns/Johnson/Willingham ASAP. Obviously he might not respond well. But I think its a risk you take if this is how you are going to handle things. And I think from an organizational standpoint it makes sense to give Kearns, Johnson, and maybe even Wilingham a month of 75% playing time (or more) to try and give them some value. Everyone knows the Nats have a logjam and it will be nearly impossible to get full value because the Nats don’t have any trade leverage, but giving it a month or so doesn’t really affect Dukes longterm.

To me, the only way this is a bad decision is if you think the Nats have a realistic shot at the playoffs this year. Obviously you (Dave) don’t believe that, so I don’t really understand why this is so problematic to you. The Nats won’t contend and they put themselves in a better position long-term if they can get rid of at least one of Kearns/Johnson/Willingham ASAP.

]]> By: Sean http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/kicking-hope-in-the-groin/#comment-70755 Sean Tue, 07 Apr 2009 14:41:50 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=4019#comment-70755 I'm so furious both as a Nats fan and as a Dukes fantasy owner that Dukes did not start that I’m practically purple. There is absolutely no explanation for why Dukes isn't starting. Even if you were toolsyist, gutsy, gritty and determined scout supporter you could just look at how they both play baseball and say, "Well s-- Dukes is way better than this d-bag." I would seriously consider firing him and using a random name-picking machine to fill out the lineup everyday. It would make WAY more sense. I’m so furious both as a Nats fan and as a Dukes fantasy owner that Dukes did not start that I’m practically purple. There is absolutely no explanation for why Dukes isn’t starting.

Even if you were toolsyist, gutsy, gritty and determined scout supporter you could just look at how they both play baseball and say, “Well s– Dukes is way better than this d-bag.”

I would seriously consider firing him and using a random name-picking machine to fill out the lineup everyday. It would make WAY more sense.

]]> By: Kevin S. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/kicking-hope-in-the-groin/#comment-70708 Kevin S. Tue, 07 Apr 2009 06:43:27 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=4019#comment-70708 You're assuming fandom implies intelligence. Elsewhere on the interwebs, I saw somebody debate whether or not to watch 24, because he's a hardcore fan, or the NCAA title game, because he went to 'Villinova' (sic his). I weep for people sometimes. You’re assuming fandom implies intelligence. Elsewhere on the interwebs, I saw somebody debate whether or not to watch 24, because he’s a hardcore fan, or the NCAA title game, because he went to ‘Villinova’ (sic his). I weep for people sometimes.

]]> By: Chris http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/kicking-hope-in-the-groin/#comment-70706 Chris Tue, 07 Apr 2009 06:34:01 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=4019#comment-70706 I call shenanigans! You're a huge Nats fan, but don't know how to spell the starting CF's name? I call shenanigans!
You’re a huge Nats fan, but don’t know how to spell the starting CF’s name?

]]> By: Sarah S. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/kicking-hope-in-the-groin/#comment-70692 Sarah S. Tue, 07 Apr 2009 05:03:05 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=4019#comment-70692 I wish I had said ozay to this one instead but I read them out of order. I wish I had said ozay to this one instead but I read them out of order.

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