Comments on: LaRoche Living Up To The Hype http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/laroche-living-up-to-the-hype/ Daily baseball statistical analysis and commentary Mon, 13 Feb 2012 00:14:33 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: Adam Reynolds http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/laroche-living-up-to-the-hype/#comment-113406 Adam Reynolds Sat, 12 Dec 2009 08:00:07 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=9832#comment-113406 LaRoche isn't living up to the hype, but he's made the outcome of last year's Bay trade mediocre instead of a total disaster. It could have been better because Bay's perceived value was greater than his Fangraphs value but overall not too bad! LaRoche isn’t living up to the hype, but he’s made the outcome of last year’s Bay trade mediocre instead of a total disaster. It could have been better because Bay’s perceived value was greater than his Fangraphs value but overall not too bad!

]]> By: R M http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/laroche-living-up-to-the-hype/#comment-113375 R M Sat, 12 Dec 2009 04:19:55 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=9832#comment-113375 So what do you suggest, that we simply wait to analyze a player until he has accumulated enough statistics to have a sufficient number of data points at the major league level? There is nothing inherent in his overall season line to suggest that he simply got lucky. Previously, he has had terrible luck, making your claim that "His major league career so far doesn’t inspire that he will be a league average hitter going forward on a sustainable basis" a much more unsubstantiated claim than the analysis that Dave put together in this article. So what do you suggest, that we simply wait to analyze a player until he has accumulated enough statistics to have a sufficient number of data points at the major league level?

There is nothing inherent in his overall season line to suggest that he simply got lucky. Previously, he has had terrible luck, making your claim that “His major league career so far doesn’t inspire that he will be a league average hitter going forward on a sustainable basis” a much more unsubstantiated claim than the analysis that Dave put together in this article.

]]> By: R M http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/laroche-living-up-to-the-hype/#comment-113374 R M Sat, 12 Dec 2009 04:13:14 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=9832#comment-113374 The cheesiness of that analogy would be enough to give a lactose intolerant person diarrhea for a week. The cheesiness of that analogy would be enough to give a lactose intolerant person diarrhea for a week.

]]> By: JoeyO http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/laroche-living-up-to-the-hype/#comment-101327 JoeyO Wed, 07 Oct 2009 23:50:51 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=9832#comment-101327 @Sam, "Have you checked his BABIP for the last month? It is .356. In May, it was .387." "I am not suggesting any cherry picking, I am suggesting looking at the variance of the random variable to arrive at any statistical conclusion. Which is what any statistician worth his salt will do." Meet your problem Correcting for BAbip fluctuations, we see this (factoring the BAbip as close as possible to .300) .254/.310/.365, .291 BAbip - April .255/.346/.383, .294 BAbip - May .265/.345/.378, .298 BAbip - June .259/.315/.365, .309 BAbip - July .295/.386/.443, .307 BAbip - Aug .281/.330/.521, .301 BAbip - Sept .269/.341/.412, .300 BAbip total When accounting for BAbip fluctuations, we see two poor months (April and July), two rather average months (May and June) and two very good months (August and September). Statistically, if we were to make a projection, the fact that 4 of the final 5 months were average to very good leads one down the positive production path. The fact that the final two months were the really strong ones strengthens this feeling even more. This makes it much more logical to expect average to even above average production going forward, and completely opposite from your original statement of “His major league career so far doesn’t inspire that he will be a league average hitter going forward on a sustainable basis.” @Sam,

“Have you checked his BABIP for the last month? It is .356. In May, it was .387.”
“I am not suggesting any cherry picking, I am suggesting looking at the variance of the random variable to arrive at any statistical conclusion. Which is what any statistician worth his salt will do.”

Meet your problem

Correcting for BAbip fluctuations, we see this (factoring the BAbip as close as possible to .300)

.254/.310/.365, .291 BAbip – April
.255/.346/.383, .294 BAbip – May
.265/.345/.378, .298 BAbip – June
.259/.315/.365, .309 BAbip – July
.295/.386/.443, .307 BAbip – Aug
.281/.330/.521, .301 BAbip – Sept

.269/.341/.412, .300 BAbip total

When accounting for BAbip fluctuations, we see two poor months (April and July), two rather average months (May and June) and two very good months (August and September).

Statistically, if we were to make a projection, the fact that 4 of the final 5 months were average to very good leads one down the positive production path. The fact that the final two months were the really strong ones strengthens this feeling even more.

This makes it much more logical to expect average to even above average production going forward, and completely opposite from your original statement of
“His major league career so far doesn’t inspire that he will be a league average hitter going forward on a sustainable basis.”

]]> By: joser http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/laroche-living-up-to-the-hype/#comment-101324 joser Wed, 07 Oct 2009 23:02:52 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=9832#comment-101324 Maybe he just figured out how to play left in Fenway. I honestly don't trust UZR when it comes to LF in that park. Look at Manny before coming to Boston, while at Boston, and then in LA. Look at Bay before and after Fenway. I'm a little untrusting of UZR when players switch parks in general, but it seems to get especially chewed up by the green monster. Maybe he just figured out how to play left in Fenway. I honestly don’t trust UZR when it comes to LF in that park. Look at Manny before coming to Boston, while at Boston, and then in LA. Look at Bay before and after Fenway. I’m a little untrusting of UZR when players switch parks in general, but it seems to get especially chewed up by the green monster.

]]> By: MarkInDallas http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/laroche-living-up-to-the-hype/#comment-101287 MarkInDallas Wed, 07 Oct 2009 20:29:39 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=9832#comment-101287 Actually LaRoche had 2 stretches totaling 73 games where he was very good, and 2 stretches totaling 76 games where he was very bad. See my breakdown below... Actually LaRoche had 2 stretches totaling 73 games where he was very good, and 2 stretches totaling 76 games where he was very bad. See my breakdown below…

]]> By: MarkInDallas http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/laroche-living-up-to-the-hype/#comment-101286 MarkInDallas Wed, 07 Oct 2009 20:16:55 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=9832#comment-101286 The Good Andy / Bad Andy ratio isn't 2 months / 4 months. It's actually 73 games / 76 games. 7 games from 4/6 to 4/15: no hits, 1 walk 47 games from 4/16 to 6/8: .331 / .402 / .458 70 games from 4/17 to 9/1: .201 / .287 / .325 26 games from 9/2 to 10/4: .323 / .364 / .570 There's also no doubt that most of the difference in the BABIP comes from him hitting the ball harder in the good stretches. He's probably not going to sustain averages in the .320's, but I can see him hitting .320 in good stretches and .260 in bad, which will even out to about .290. I think he may finally be getting over the injury from last season and has strength back. He said he was at about 75% most of the season. With Bay's defensive liabilities, Andy definitely has the potential to be worth more than Bay. With his switch to second base sometime next year, my guess is that LaRoche will be putting up stats very similar to Craig Biggio at the same age. The Good Andy / Bad Andy ratio isn’t 2 months / 4 months.
It’s actually 73 games / 76 games.

7 games from 4/6 to 4/15: no hits, 1 walk
47 games from 4/16 to 6/8: .331 / .402 / .458
70 games from 4/17 to 9/1: .201 / .287 / .325
26 games from 9/2 to 10/4: .323 / .364 / .570

There’s also no doubt that most of the difference in the BABIP comes from him hitting the ball harder in the good stretches. He’s probably not going to sustain averages in the .320′s, but I can see him hitting .320 in good stretches and .260 in bad, which will even out to about .290.

I think he may finally be getting over the injury from last season and has strength back. He said he was at about 75% most of the season.

With Bay’s defensive liabilities, Andy definitely has the potential to be worth more than Bay. With his switch to second base sometime next year, my guess is that LaRoche will be putting up stats very similar to Craig Biggio at the same age.

]]> By: smuldoon http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/laroche-living-up-to-the-hype/#comment-100457 smuldoon Thu, 01 Oct 2009 17:50:27 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=9832#comment-100457 Laroche is a stiff.You know what WAR is it's CRAP. Laroche is a stiff.You know what WAR is it’s CRAP.

]]> By: smuldoon http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/laroche-living-up-to-the-hype/#comment-100455 smuldoon Thu, 01 Oct 2009 17:44:08 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=9832#comment-100455 The Bucs have been rebuilding since 1980,what a joke.Babe Ruth and CyYoung couldn't help that team.What they've become is a great farm team for the majors.Pittsburgh was once a great baseball town,i feel for the fans that are left.Horrible management!Where have you gone Roberto Clemente? The Bucs have been rebuilding since 1980,what a joke.Babe Ruth and CyYoung couldn’t help that team.What they’ve become is a great farm team for the majors.Pittsburgh was once a great baseball town,i feel for the fans that are left.Horrible management!Where have you gone Roberto Clemente?

]]> By: Ed Nelson http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/laroche-living-up-to-the-hype/#comment-100450 Ed Nelson Thu, 01 Oct 2009 17:18:29 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=9832#comment-100450 I think people are getting worked up about Dunn's WAR by equating the low number with a lack of value, which is silly. Here's a great article about how power hitters can influence a club's record http://baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=9329 (subscription only) WAR doesn't examine what value that particular player's specific skill set has for a particular club, and in some cases a guy like Dunn can provide a cascading effect in terms of how his offensive capabilities can effect the production of a lineup. That being said there has to be an objective way of measuring the totality of what a player contributes, and Dunn gives back a lot of what he gives. He's not that different then Ben Gordon in basketball. Gordon's scoring certainly has value, but as a total player he was a +/- of +24 over the entire 08/09 season compared to Kurt Hinrich's +203 (in 30 fewer games no less). That's a defensive liability exposed. I think people are getting worked up about Dunn’s WAR by equating the low number with a lack of value, which is silly. Here’s a great article about how power hitters can influence a club’s record
http://baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=9329 (subscription only)

WAR doesn’t examine what value that particular player’s specific skill set has for a particular club, and in some cases a guy like Dunn can provide a cascading effect in terms of how his offensive capabilities can effect the production of a lineup. That being said there has to be an objective way of measuring the totality of what a player contributes, and Dunn gives back a lot of what he gives.

He’s not that different then Ben Gordon in basketball. Gordon’s scoring certainly has value, but as a total player he was a +/- of +24 over the entire 08/09 season compared to Kurt Hinrich’s +203 (in 30 fewer games no less). That’s a defensive liability exposed.

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