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	<title>Comments on: Lincecum&#8217;s Great Changeup</title>
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	<link>http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/lincecums-great-changeup/</link>
	<description>Daily baseball statistical analysis and commentary</description>
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		<title>By: engingireva</title>
		<link>http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/lincecums-great-changeup/#comment-1014440</link>
		<dc:creator>engingireva</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 15 Aug 2011 18:33:24 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=6698#comment-1014440</guid>
		<description>Welcome;     
     
Looking for a forum of his old friend, he had a nickname once qfilier     
     
Has anyone can contact with him? Do not be granted on this board?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Welcome;     </p>
<p>Looking for a forum of his old friend, he had a nickname once qfilier     </p>
<p>Has anyone can contact with him? Do not be granted on this board?</p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>By: SharksRog</title>
		<link>http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/lincecums-great-changeup/#comment-86365</link>
		<dc:creator>SharksRog</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 19 Jul 2009 08:28:26 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=6698#comment-86365</guid>
		<description>The analysis of Tim Lincecum&#039;s change up has been excellently done here, both in the article and the comments. Allow me if I might to clear up a few misconceptions about the pitch.

First, although Mike Krukow keeps saying Tim didn&#039;t have the pitch until 2008, it was actually his best pitch by the end of 2007 according to the metrics here at Fan Graphs.  Tim threw mostly his fastball and hammer curve in 2006, but said after his first start at Fresno that he had used mostly the fastball and change up.

Tim actually threw enough curves in that Fresno opener to strike out three batters with the curve, three with the new change up and two with his fastball.

Tim worked heavily on the change up between the 2006 and 2007 seasons, and added a slider between 2007 and 2008.

Tim&#039;s change up is indeed somewhat of a split finger pitch, although it might more accurately be called an abbreviated forkball.

And as mentioned in the comments above, it is the drop that makes the pitch so devastating.  It is very hard to pick up Tim&#039;s let up, so its speed takes the sting out of the bat and the drop often causes the bat to miss the pitch altogther.  With two stikes batters have a good idea the pitch is coming -- and they usually STILL can&#039;t hit it.

Three primary factors have contributed to Tim&#039;s thus far having even more success in 2009 than in his Cy Young Award season of 2008.  The change up just keeps getting better, Tim is using it more, and his control keeps improving.

Tim is having more success keeping his pitch count down now (about a pitch per inning lower than in 2008) not only because of the decreased walks, but also because batters are tending more and more to seek fastballs early in the count.  

Tim&#039;s a tough guy to hit even on the first pitch though.  He has faced over 2000 batters now, and only 13 of them have managed an extra-base hit on any one of those 2000+ first pitches.

There haven&#039;t been many pitchers who have gotten off to career starts as good as Lincecum has.  I&#039;m sure there are others, but the only ones I came across today in a rudimentary search were Walter Johnson, Cy Young, Christy Mathewson, Tom Seaver, Vida Blue and Dwight Gooden.  That&#039;s rather elite company.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The analysis of Tim Lincecum&#8217;s change up has been excellently done here, both in the article and the comments. Allow me if I might to clear up a few misconceptions about the pitch.</p>
<p>First, although Mike Krukow keeps saying Tim didn&#8217;t have the pitch until 2008, it was actually his best pitch by the end of 2007 according to the metrics here at Fan Graphs.  Tim threw mostly his fastball and hammer curve in 2006, but said after his first start at Fresno that he had used mostly the fastball and change up.</p>
<p>Tim actually threw enough curves in that Fresno opener to strike out three batters with the curve, three with the new change up and two with his fastball.</p>
<p>Tim worked heavily on the change up between the 2006 and 2007 seasons, and added a slider between 2007 and 2008.</p>
<p>Tim&#8217;s change up is indeed somewhat of a split finger pitch, although it might more accurately be called an abbreviated forkball.</p>
<p>And as mentioned in the comments above, it is the drop that makes the pitch so devastating.  It is very hard to pick up Tim&#8217;s let up, so its speed takes the sting out of the bat and the drop often causes the bat to miss the pitch altogther.  With two stikes batters have a good idea the pitch is coming &#8212; and they usually STILL can&#8217;t hit it.</p>
<p>Three primary factors have contributed to Tim&#8217;s thus far having even more success in 2009 than in his Cy Young Award season of 2008.  The change up just keeps getting better, Tim is using it more, and his control keeps improving.</p>
<p>Tim is having more success keeping his pitch count down now (about a pitch per inning lower than in 2008) not only because of the decreased walks, but also because batters are tending more and more to seek fastballs early in the count.  </p>
<p>Tim&#8217;s a tough guy to hit even on the first pitch though.  He has faced over 2000 batters now, and only 13 of them have managed an extra-base hit on any one of those 2000+ first pitches.</p>
<p>There haven&#8217;t been many pitchers who have gotten off to career starts as good as Lincecum has.  I&#8217;m sure there are others, but the only ones I came across today in a rudimentary search were Walter Johnson, Cy Young, Christy Mathewson, Tom Seaver, Vida Blue and Dwight Gooden.  That&#8217;s rather elite company.</p>
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		<title>By: Dave Allen</title>
		<link>http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/lincecums-great-changeup/#comment-86113</link>
		<dc:creator>Dave Allen</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 17 Jul 2009 17:38:14 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=6698#comment-86113</guid>
		<description>A huge whiff rate, just under 42%.  It looks to me like contact on his changeup has induced 32 ground outs, 10 fly outs, 5 line outs, 4 pop outs, 17 singles and 4 doubles.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>A huge whiff rate, just under 42%.  It looks to me like contact on his changeup has induced 32 ground outs, 10 fly outs, 5 line outs, 4 pop outs, 17 singles and 4 doubles.</p>
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		<title>By: WW</title>
		<link>http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/lincecums-great-changeup/#comment-86097</link>
		<dc:creator>WW</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 17 Jul 2009 17:22:44 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=6698#comment-86097</guid>
		<description>Fantastic article/discussion for a fantastic pitch.

Dave, you posted the whiff rate of his curve -- how about his split/change?  

I&#039;ve seen about every pitch Timmy has thrown this season and the change seems to result in a swing and a miss as often as all other outcomes combined.  It almost surprises me when a batter puts the change in play (very few hit squarely too).  I&#039;m fairly certain that no one hit a homer off of it this year and am curious to see the number of liners/doubles etc. Anyone know how I can look this up?

On a side note: Tim&#039;s struggles early in &#039;09 were due to: poor defense, lack of command and an 88-92 fastball.  Still, he was quite successful because of the change -- posting solid #s through april/may.  But for the past month or 2, the fastball has been flying out of his hand and painting black at 92-96.. giving hitters even less of a chance against what might be the best pitch in the majors.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Fantastic article/discussion for a fantastic pitch.</p>
<p>Dave, you posted the whiff rate of his curve &#8212; how about his split/change?  </p>
<p>I&#8217;ve seen about every pitch Timmy has thrown this season and the change seems to result in a swing and a miss as often as all other outcomes combined.  It almost surprises me when a batter puts the change in play (very few hit squarely too).  I&#8217;m fairly certain that no one hit a homer off of it this year and am curious to see the number of liners/doubles etc. Anyone know how I can look this up?</p>
<p>On a side note: Tim&#8217;s struggles early in &#8217;09 were due to: poor defense, lack of command and an 88-92 fastball.  Still, he was quite successful because of the change &#8212; posting solid #s through april/may.  But for the past month or 2, the fastball has been flying out of his hand and painting black at 92-96.. giving hitters even less of a chance against what might be the best pitch in the majors.</p>
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		<title>By: CaR</title>
		<link>http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/lincecums-great-changeup/#comment-86003</link>
		<dc:creator>CaR</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 17 Jul 2009 14:24:34 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=6698#comment-86003</guid>
		<description>Its a bit of a semantics argument but a true split is a breaking ball that works due mostly to movement rather than deception.  Great change-ups move a little but most of their effectiveness is because the rotation looks similar to a fastball coming out of the pitchers&#039; hand which in turn gets the hitter jumping out in front.  

Its long standing tradition to teach over-hand curves and change-ups initially to younger pitchers for a couple of reasons.  First, as mentioned above, those two pitches combine deceptiveness with off-speed qualities which in general are more desirable.  Second, there is a perception that splits and sliders are not quite as effective and they are elbow shredders.  Whether that 100% true is questionable but there is some anecdotal evidence backing that up.  In Lincecums&#039; case, there has to be some rotation to the ball even with a grip that looks closer to a choked fork ball that plays off of the fastball which in his case has that late hop that makes it so effective.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Its a bit of a semantics argument but a true split is a breaking ball that works due mostly to movement rather than deception.  Great change-ups move a little but most of their effectiveness is because the rotation looks similar to a fastball coming out of the pitchers&#8217; hand which in turn gets the hitter jumping out in front.  </p>
<p>Its long standing tradition to teach over-hand curves and change-ups initially to younger pitchers for a couple of reasons.  First, as mentioned above, those two pitches combine deceptiveness with off-speed qualities which in general are more desirable.  Second, there is a perception that splits and sliders are not quite as effective and they are elbow shredders.  Whether that 100% true is questionable but there is some anecdotal evidence backing that up.  In Lincecums&#8217; case, there has to be some rotation to the ball even with a grip that looks closer to a choked fork ball that plays off of the fastball which in his case has that late hop that makes it so effective.</p>
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		<title>By: Dave Allen</title>
		<link>http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/lincecums-great-changeup/#comment-85830</link>
		<dc:creator>Dave Allen</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 16 Jul 2009 20:28:45 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=6698#comment-85830</guid>
		<description>All of the links and discussion about his changeup grip have been very interesting, thanks all.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>All of the links and discussion about his changeup grip have been very interesting, thanks all.</p>
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		<title>By: B</title>
		<link>http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/lincecums-great-changeup/#comment-85774</link>
		<dc:creator>B</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 16 Jul 2009 17:37:56 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=6698#comment-85774</guid>
		<description>Interesting, I was never a pitcher so I don&#039;t really know a whole lot about grips.  My impression is anything involving the circle grip is a circle change.  I&#039;m actually looking again at that Lincecum picture, and realizing what I thought was his index finger might just be a smudge on the ball.  I can&#039;t tell.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Interesting, I was never a pitcher so I don&#8217;t really know a whole lot about grips.  My impression is anything involving the circle grip is a circle change.  I&#8217;m actually looking again at that Lincecum picture, and realizing what I thought was his index finger might just be a smudge on the ball.  I can&#8217;t tell.</p>
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		<title>By: Eric Cioe</title>
		<link>http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/lincecums-great-changeup/#comment-85736</link>
		<dc:creator>Eric Cioe</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 16 Jul 2009 16:21:15 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=6698#comment-85736</guid>
		<description>No, no.  A circle change has the middle finger on the inside part of the ball and the ring and pinky fingers on the outside.  Those last two fingers basically don&#039;t factor into a split.  When I think of the classic circle changeup, I think of Verlander&#039;s grip: http://www.rotorob.com/uploaded_images/Justin_Verlander2-705199.jpg</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>No, no.  A circle change has the middle finger on the inside part of the ball and the ring and pinky fingers on the outside.  Those last two fingers basically don&#8217;t factor into a split.  When I think of the classic circle changeup, I think of Verlander&#8217;s grip: <a href="http://www.rotorob.com/uploaded_images/Justin_Verlander2-705199.jpg" rel="nofollow">http://www.rotorob.com/uploaded_images/Justin_Verlander2-705199.jpg</a></p>
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		<title>By: B</title>
		<link>http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/lincecums-great-changeup/#comment-85703</link>
		<dc:creator>B</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 16 Jul 2009 14:32:20 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=6698#comment-85703</guid>
		<description>Looks like a circle change grip to me.  It seems if your fingers are long enough, though, there really isn&#039;t a whole lot of difference between a circle change and splitter (in terms of grip)...</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Looks like a circle change grip to me.  It seems if your fingers are long enough, though, there really isn&#8217;t a whole lot of difference between a circle change and splitter (in terms of grip)&#8230;</p>
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		<title>By: B</title>
		<link>http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/lincecums-great-changeup/#comment-85702</link>
		<dc:creator>B</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 16 Jul 2009 14:30:29 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=6698#comment-85702</guid>
		<description>I dunno about Lincecum&#039;s changeup grip, but I can tell you the Big Unit throws his changeup very much like a splitter.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I dunno about Lincecum&#8217;s changeup grip, but I can tell you the Big Unit throws his changeup very much like a splitter.</p>
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