Comments on: Long-Term Lester

By: Eric Seidman

Eric Seidman — Tue, 10 Mar 2009 02:17:05 +0000

Mattymatty said it best. Read his comment. Lester is someone that the systems are going to be off on, simply because his pre-2008 lines were fueled by an ailment that is gone, most likely for good now. He was worth +5.1 wins last year… I see that regressing in 2009 even though he is young enough to still improve, but a more appropriate estimation would be somewhere between +3.5 to +4.1 wins, not what the systems here, that use the last 3 yrs, suggest.

By: Darren

Darren — Tue, 10 Mar 2009 02:14:12 +0000

Where are yo getting the 3.5 to 4.1 range for his value? Chone, for example, has him as 27 runs above replacement. I could see bumping him up a 1/2 win or so, but we’re really just guessing at this point. And if we’re guessing 3.5 to 4.1 sounds high, because there are so few pitchers who are consistently that good.

By: mattymatty

mattymatty — Mon, 09 Mar 2009 20:21:55 +0000

The projection systems are taking the time that he had undiagnosed cancer and then when he was recovering his strength as indicative of his normal performance. I think its pretty safe to say that it isn’t. Last year’s performance is more in line with his minor league performance (3.33 ERA in 484 minor league innings).

By: Garrett

Garrett — Mon, 09 Mar 2009 17:40:57 +0000

Just not buying it. His ’08 numbers scream out outlier to me, and while I think he’s a fine pitcher with the potential to throw an ERA in the low 4s or perhaps high 3s. I just can’t see him pitching near the 5.1 wins he had last year. I’m very comfortable with the projection systems on this one.

By: Mushroy

Mushroy — Mon, 09 Mar 2009 15:26:36 +0000

Wow. I thought I was higher on Lester than just about anybody. Turns out it’s a tie…