Manny Being Relevant?
The Baltimore Orioles have had preliminary talks with Manny Ramirez. While Eric Seidman recently detailed some veterans who may be forced to retire due to lack of interest, Ramirez seems to be an outlier. He’ll be 40 in May — and he still has to serve a 50-game suspension — but teams are still interested.
What separates Ramirez from Johnny Damon, Derrek Lee, Ivan Rodriguez and Vladimir Guerrero is that his bat is still incredibly effective. Yes, Ramirez was abysmal during his brief tenure with the Tampa Bay Rays last year — he only saw 17 plate appearances — but the work was hardly enough for us to draw any meaningful conclusions. In 2010, though, Ramirez’s bat was still an asset. Due to three separate injuries (calf, hamstring and calf again), Ramirez only played 90 games. In those 90 games, though, he managed to post a solid .298/.409/.460 slash line. More importantly, his 138 wRC+ and .382 wOBA proved that he was still much better than an average hitter.
So, certainly, he was effective at the plate the last time he got significant playing time. But that was two years ago. Ramirez abruptly retired in 2011 after only playing five games, which means he’s basically coming back from a year without seeing major-league pitching. While he was a good hitter in 2010, Ramirez did see some decline at the plate. Ramirez’s effectiveness against sliders and curves dwindled, and he didn’t hit fastballs nearly as well as he had in the past — though he still posted a 9.7 pitch value against heaters. Unless his bat speed has somehow improved, that could be a major problem for Ramirez.
Both the Orioles and the Oakland Athletics have shown interest in Ramirez this off-season, but it’s unclear why either team wants to take that chance. Due to his recent ineffectiveness and past steroid use, it’s not like he’s going to do much to increase ticket sales. While he might be a useful trade chip at the deadline if things go right, Ramirez will still have to serve a 50-game suspension once he’s signed. Since most MLB teams play their 50th game near the end of May, Ramirez would need to prove himself in just two months in order to facilitate a trade. Considering, at that point, he’ll be a season-and-a-half removed from facing major-league pitchers, an immediate offensive rebound doesn’t seem likely. There’s also a decent chance that Ramirez doesn’t find it a whole lot of fun to play on a team that won’t win many games.
Let’s say Ramirez plays nice, that he hits well — but not well enough to be dealt at the deadline — and finishes the season as a useful DH. Even then, he might find it hard to extend his career. Using Kenny Lofton as an example, Eric Seidman pointed out that teams have little interest in depending on a 40-year-old in a prominent role — even if that player is coming off an effective season. Ramirez has already seen how tough it is for older hitters to get a contract—and those guys didn’t come with the baggage that Ramirez would bring. Last off-season, interest in Manny was minimal, leading him to sign a ridiculously inexpensive $2 million contract with the Rays.
The level of interest in Ramirez this off-season is perplexing. Even if he’s still capable of hitting effectively — not a given, considering his age and time away from the game — he’s unlikely to play a prominent role on a contender again. Given that he’s one positive drug test away from a permanent ban, he’s a risky proposition for a playoff-contending team.
For a team not expected to contend — like the Orioles or the A’s — signing Ramirez comes with little risk. There’s a chance that he re-establishes himself this season and extends his career, most likely as a reserve and a pinch hitter. Those are roles that — given his history — he might not enjoy. If Ramirez expects anything more out of this comeback, he might find himself disappointed.
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He’ll be a fan favourite of cheaters who love to ignore reality, anyway.
“he’ll be a season-and-a-half removed from facing major-league hitters”
His comeback will be awfully improbable indeed if he’ll be trying to make it as a pitcher now after a Hall of Fame career as a hitter.
I hadn’t heard this. What’s his projection? Who’s the comp?
Will someone please tell me why it’s insane for the Phillies to sign Manny to play left field?
because it was borderline insane to play him in left field three years ago when his offense was much better and he wasn’t 40
He’s a terrible fielder. And he would probably get them too close to the luxury tax threshold. And there’s the suspension and the uncertainty. No.
Isn’t he going to sign for close to the league minimum, given the (lack of) interest so far? That seems like miniscule risk. And there’s no uncertainty surrounding the suspension: It will be 50 games. There is uncertainty surrounding Manny (because he is Manny) but it seems fairly easy to mitigate in this case: You cut him if it becomes a problem. The only way he could make real trouble is if he comes back and rakes and in August or September begins making noises about an extension, but if he’s playing well enough to make those noises I’ll take it.
Of course, he is a terrible fielder, but their other two outfielders can cover a lot of ground. Maybe that can be mitigated, too? I don’t know. Part of my brain knows that you are right and that it’s a bad idea, but it’s like I’m having trouble accessing it. All I can think is “300/400/600.” Well, that’s Delusional Philadelphial Disorder (DPD) for you!
As a Nationals fan, I fully support this plan. Do it, Ruben.
I can tell you exactly why – he’s worse defensively than Raul Ibanez. (which means also 99.9% of other major leaguers)
Do you really think the Phillies should sacrifice their OF defense for Manny?
No, I think they should play Domonic Brown and/or platoon him with John Mabry. But they seem un-inclined to do so. I guess it *seems* (but I kind of want to be convinced otherwise, it was an honest request) to me that the Phils’ anemic offense and need for a right-handed bat are large enough problems to overcome his defensive liabilities. At least to take a flier? The salary will be so low, and if things are humming along after the 50 games and Manny’s unwilling to be a right-handed bat off the bench (Manny and Thome!) you just cut him no harm no foul. Tell me why my visions of sugar-plum Mannies raking in red are more stupid than I realize …
Their offense is not anemic. It’s average, at worst.
also: “Mayberry”
Yeah, I knew someone would call me on my use of “anemic.” I know it just *feels* anemic. However: None of Howard, Utley, Rollins, and Victorino (who probably just had his career year) are likely to have better years this year than they did last. Even accounting for whoever replaces (and will thus perform better than) Raul Ibanez, the offense is likely to be average at best, with a solid shot at anemic.
Do you really think Manny’s offense is going to be significantly better than John Mayberry’s? Why is it that the entire Phillies nation undervalues this guy? He had a 130 OPS+ last year. Ship him to the Braves, we could use some right-handed power in the outfield.
And, of course, Mayberry’s defense is unquestionably better.
I see no reason Ultey and Rollins won’t have as good of, if not better, years. I’m not saying they necessarily will, but Ultey missed the first half of the season and Rollins battled injuries throughout the year too. They also will have a full season of Pence in right.
Once Utley returned the Phillies scored more runs per game than any other NL team last year. http://www.thegoodphight.com/2011/11/2/2504605/2011-phillies-offense-better-than-in-2010-and-2008
When I read the title of this post, I thought perhaps there was some tidbits about how Manny might sign with someone other than the A’s or O’s. Unfortunately, that wasn’t the case.
The level of interest in Ramirez this off-season is perplexing.
The main difference between Ramirez and, say, Damon or Guerrero is that Manny will take a minor league deal and play for the MLB minimum, whereas the other guys still want $5MM+.
A lot of these teams interest has been getting the team in the news, rather than in signing manny.
It’s hard for old players to get contract because owners use defensive metric as an excuse for collusion, blackballing veteran free agents while forcing us to watch minor league scrubs (Ryan Langerhans, Ryan Sweeney, Ben Revere, Michael Brantley, Nate Schierholtz, Brett Wallace, Franklin Gutierrez) stink it up, pushing players to DH so the idea that they can’t play defense anymore become conventional wisdom. Lance Berkman’s signing last year by the Cardinals to play outfield full-time after DH-ing for the Yankees the year before was a joke to WAR-fanatics but it worked out. WAR is a dumb creation that overemphasized defense when most plays are routine plays and the best way to prevent run is good pitching. Many of these players can still play defense if you give them the chance like Berkman.
It was a disgrace that extremely productive players like Jermaine Dye, Kenny Lofton, Ray Durham, Troy Glaus are forced to retire while the likes of Garrett Atkins, Luke Scott, and David DeJesus got major league deals. Age is just a number. Plenty of players managed to stay productive into their late 30s and early 40s. Plenty of players also washed out before they even hit 30 (Travis Fryman, Garrett Atkins, Zach Duke). Quite frankly, it’s a slap in the face to fans who want to watch the best available players in the world on the field.
Guerrero was an all-star in 2010. He hit .290 last year. How is his bat “not effective”? If his bat isn’t effective, then how are Luke Scott, Ryan Ludwick, David DeJesus, and Juan Rivera any more effective? If Lee isn’t effective, what does that say about the following projected starting first basemen: Brett Wallace, Bryan Lahair, Garrett Jones, James Loney, Adam Lind, Daric Barton, Mitch Moreland, Paul Goldschmidt, Chris Davis, Justin Smoak, and Mat Gamel? Someone explains to me how Lee’s bat is less effective than the aforementioned.
Damon has never been what you would call a big slugger. He is a professional hitter who knows how to get on base and does a bit of everything (some pop, some speed). He’s a scrappy player, and a good clubhouse guy. When he signed with Tampa Bay last year, Manny was supposed to be the DH. He could still play the outfield if given the opportunity. It is wrong to pigeonhole him as a DH-only guy.
I honestly do not understand your comment. So you are theorizing that teams collude so Prince Fielder gets a 214 million contract? While Jermaine “bad player” Dye is out of baseball? So you are suggesting that if you were the owner of a Major League franchise, you will assemble a team of 40 years old players, and have your minor leaguers rotten in your system because these 40 yrs old players are still good and your younger players are likely to be bad? On top of that, you do not even bother to call them up and see what they can do?
Dye wasn’t forced to retire, he had a terribly unrealistic standard for what he needed to be paid. (Not necessarily a bad thing if retirement was worth it to him, but he could have gotten a decent deal if he’d been willing.) Both Durham and Glaus were terrible with the bat by the time they retired. And I think Kenny Lofton is still playing out there after plastic surgery and an assumed name. (Maybe he *is* Ben Revere.)
In other words, everyone else is wrong and you’re right. Do u have a blog so I can read yer wisdom daily?
I find it odd that anyone would simply ignore “Manny being Manny” because he might still get a few hits. This guy is a negative influence, the Dodgers signed him and made a concerted effort to give him the best publicity and support and look what happened there.
As long as he can still hit, no one gives a sh*t. I don’t care what he does off the field. I love watching him play.
Love seeing him fail, which he has done more in the field than at bat, but has been a worse hitter than people care to remember. Take away his PED’s and he’s a scrub.
The guy is willing to sign for a million bucks and sign a minor league deal while guys like Damon are looking for 5 million. What is the risk?. Huge upside if he hits. Classic low risk for high reward scenario.
Lets say the Orioles sign him. He serves the 50 game suspension, and after a month in the minors, comes back around the ASB, hits like a madman for a month, and the Orioles deal him to a contender needing a bat for a decent prospect.
Might be a nice pay off for somebody.
I have to say, after a year of watching Crawford shy away from walls and his noodle arm that recorded all of 1 assist on a cut off (and Fenway is an assist haven for LF’ers), I miss Manny.
Manny had a quick release and accurate arm, and played the wall as well as anyone. No GG for sure, but I think the metrics don’t measure LF’ers at Fenway very well and he was not as bad as those worst year reported by UZR (if so why did he improve the last few years)