Comments on: Manny’s Hollywood Moment http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/mannys-hollywood-moment/ Daily baseball statistical analysis and commentary Sun, 12 Feb 2012 16:35:30 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: ddupont http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/mannys-hollywood-moment/#comment-87340 ddupont Fri, 24 Jul 2009 14:04:48 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=6995#comment-87340 evidence please? citations? evidence please? citations?

]]> By: ddupont http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/mannys-hollywood-moment/#comment-87338 ddupont Fri, 24 Jul 2009 14:03:43 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=6995#comment-87338 This is totally begging the question. Why should it be that you must speak with your wallet to speak at all? I see no reason to believe that. I love baseball but I can't afford to go to very many games and I don't make it a special point to frequent sponsors or TV advertisers either. That doesn't mean I love it less. The same goes for all manner of things; what you are willing to spend on X has as much to do with what else you must spend on as it has to do with how much you want to spend money on X. This is totally begging the question. Why should it be that you must speak with your wallet to speak at all? I see no reason to believe that. I love baseball but I can’t afford to go to very many games and I don’t make it a special point to frequent sponsors or TV advertisers either. That doesn’t mean I love it less. The same goes for all manner of things; what you are willing to spend on X has as much to do with what else you must spend on as it has to do with how much you want to spend money on X.

]]> By: Dan http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/mannys-hollywood-moment/#comment-87321 Dan Fri, 24 Jul 2009 12:21:52 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=6995#comment-87321 You seem to have missed my point about how there are potential fans who are turned off by this whole thing. People who would spend money in the future but who do not care to involve themsevles with a sport that embraces illegial and unethical activity. My own caring and not caring is indeed irrelevant. So, I suppose, is yours, and so is Erik's. Will the future of baseball care? I contend that it will, and should today. You seem to have missed my point about how there are potential fans who are turned off by this whole thing. People who would spend money in the future but who do not care to involve themsevles with a sport that embraces illegial and unethical activity. My own caring and not caring is indeed irrelevant. So, I suppose, is yours, and so is Erik’s. Will the future of baseball care? I contend that it will, and should today.

]]> By: joser http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/mannys-hollywood-moment/#comment-87290 joser Fri, 24 Jul 2009 00:52:12 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=6995#comment-87290 Actually, I think it's almost certainly true that fans don't care about PEDs <i>in the moment</i>. When I'm actually watching a game, cheering for my team, I'm not thinking about character issues at all. When a player hits a game winning home run, or pitches his way out of a jam, or catches a ball over the wall, I honestly don't think about his DUI or his wife beating or his drug abuse or whatever. That all comes later, during the other 21 hours of the day when I can be objective and sensible and judgmental. But during a game? Forgetaboutit. Actually, I think it’s almost certainly true that fans don’t care about PEDs in the moment. When I’m actually watching a game, cheering for my team, I’m not thinking about character issues at all. When a player hits a game winning home run, or pitches his way out of a jam, or catches a ball over the wall, I honestly don’t think about his DUI or his wife beating or his drug abuse or whatever. That all comes later, during the other 21 hours of the day when I can be objective and sensible and judgmental. But during a game? Forgetaboutit.

]]> By: kensai http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/mannys-hollywood-moment/#comment-87265 kensai Thu, 23 Jul 2009 22:52:47 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=6995#comment-87265 Nobody cares enough to stop going, do they? That's ALL of baseball, regardless of team. Nobody cares enough to stop going, do they?

That’s ALL of baseball, regardless of team.

]]> By: BIP http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/mannys-hollywood-moment/#comment-87262 BIP Thu, 23 Jul 2009 22:25:12 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=6995#comment-87262 Saying you care is irrelevant. If you're not speaking with your wallet or how you spend your time, you're not speaking at all. Saying you care is irrelevant. If you’re not speaking with your wallet or how you spend your time, you’re not speaking at all.

]]> By: Alex http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/mannys-hollywood-moment/#comment-87216 Alex Thu, 23 Jul 2009 20:42:41 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=6995#comment-87216 Well said Erik, that's why I'd take FanGraphs over any sportswriter anyday Well said Erik, that’s why I’d take FanGraphs over any sportswriter anyday

]]> By: Wrighteous http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/mannys-hollywood-moment/#comment-87201 Wrighteous Thu, 23 Jul 2009 19:45:56 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=6995#comment-87201 this post is stupid this post is stupid

]]> By: Alireza http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/mannys-hollywood-moment/#comment-87198 Alireza Thu, 23 Jul 2009 19:37:56 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=6995#comment-87198 Miles - Russell Martin, who was one of the guys who hit the 4 consecutive home runs in the 4 + 1 game, said that this moment was at least as electric as that one. Miles – Russell Martin, who was one of the guys who hit the 4 consecutive home runs in the 4 + 1 game, said that this moment was at least as electric as that one.

]]> By: Jeffrey Gross http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/mannys-hollywood-moment/#comment-87144 Jeffrey Gross Thu, 23 Jul 2009 17:34:22 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=6995#comment-87144 After being hit on the wrist by Homer Bailey the night before, Manny was scratched from last night's lineup as a precautionary measure. And yet, he managed to hit a pinch-hit grand slam in the sixth inning -- on Manny Bobblehead giveaway night of all nights (check out Manny's opinions on the bobblehead here). Classic Manny being Manny, right? Not just the comments with regards to his bobblehead, but also his incredible clutchiness. Last night marked the 22nd Grand Slam of Manny's career, 2nd all-time behind Lou Gehrig (23) on the career leader board. Only a handful of right-handed hitters -- Albert Pujols, Jimmie Foxx, Joe DiMaggio, Hank Aaron, Willie Mays and Roger Hornsby -- come to mind as being in Ramirez's class of talent. Only nine hitters in the history of baseball have a career OPS above 1.000; Pujols and Ramirez are the only two active players on that list and while Pujols is utterly great, he is still in the prime of his career and nowhere near the "decline" phase, while Manny is more likely than not facing the final contacts of his illustrious career. Sustaining those kind of numbers over 17 seasons is no easy feat (not even Todd Helton, whose played at Coors Field, much pre-humidor, his entire career can rival Ramirez's numbers). In 174 ABs this season, Ramirez has a triple slash line of .348/.475/.681 (1.155 OPS) with 11 HR, 32 R, 37 RBI and 33 BB. Last year with the Dodgers, Ramirez hit .396/.489/..743 (1.232 OPS) with 36 R, 53 RBI, 17 HR in 222 PAs. Pretty consistent, no? At 37, Ramirez has shown no signs of slowing down (perhaps because of steroids) due to age. You may think his outrageous 2009 numbers are bound to regress, but a lot of signs indicate otherwise. Take a look: * Manny has a career 22.5 LD%; this season, his LD% is 22.8%. A rough xBABIP metric is .120+LD%. Thus, a player with a .225 LD rate would likely have a .345 BABIP. * Speaking of BABIP, Manny's career BABIP and speed score are respectively .345 and 3.0. This season, those numbers respectively clock in at .369 and 2.6, again, respectively. * Manny's has a career .270 ISO (despite a horrible season in 2007, where he posted a .199 ISO over 569 PAs [6.2% of his career]); this season, that figure sits at .314. * Manny's career HR/FB rate is 21.9%; this season, Manny is hitting more FBs than last year and is sporting a 21.3% HR/FB rate. * Manny's HRs this season average 410.5 FT in distance; the league average home run this season is under 400 FT in distance. * Manny's K rate is down almost 2.6 points (11.8%) this season against his career rate. So sure, the ISO, BABIP are most likely going to regress towards his career rates -- perhaps a little lower due to aging -- going forward on the season, but Manny is still nonetheless one of baseball's premier offensive threats. His pure awesomeness is no news to ANYONE (27 ADP this preseason), but his continued success is incredibly impressive. Steroids or not, Manny is one of the greatest hitters of all time. I'd probably argue Manny is a top ten player in the game's history, especially given the right-handedness, but I'm no expert on baseball pre-2003. After being hit on the wrist by Homer Bailey the night before, Manny was scratched from last night’s lineup as a precautionary measure. And yet, he managed to hit a pinch-hit grand slam in the sixth inning — on Manny Bobblehead giveaway night of all nights (check out Manny’s opinions on the bobblehead here).

Classic Manny being Manny, right? Not just the comments with regards to his bobblehead, but also his incredible clutchiness. Last night marked the 22nd Grand Slam of Manny’s career, 2nd all-time behind Lou Gehrig (23) on the career leader board. Only a handful of right-handed hitters — Albert Pujols, Jimmie Foxx, Joe DiMaggio, Hank Aaron, Willie Mays and Roger Hornsby — come to mind as being in Ramirez’s class of talent. Only nine hitters in the history of baseball have a career OPS above 1.000; Pujols and Ramirez are the only two active players on that list and while Pujols is utterly great, he is still in the prime of his career and nowhere near the “decline” phase, while Manny is more likely than not facing the final contacts of his illustrious career. Sustaining those kind of numbers over 17 seasons is no easy feat (not even Todd Helton, whose played at Coors Field, much pre-humidor, his entire career can rival Ramirez’s numbers).

In 174 ABs this season, Ramirez has a triple slash line of .348/.475/.681 (1.155 OPS) with 11 HR, 32 R, 37 RBI and 33 BB. Last year with the Dodgers, Ramirez hit .396/.489/..743 (1.232 OPS) with 36 R, 53 RBI, 17 HR in 222 PAs. Pretty consistent, no? At 37, Ramirez has shown no signs of slowing down (perhaps because of steroids) due to age.

You may think his outrageous 2009 numbers are bound to regress, but a lot of signs indicate otherwise. Take a look:

* Manny has a career 22.5 LD%; this season, his LD% is 22.8%. A rough xBABIP metric is .120+LD%. Thus, a player with a .225 LD rate would likely have a .345 BABIP.
* Speaking of BABIP, Manny’s career BABIP and speed score are respectively .345 and 3.0. This season, those numbers respectively clock in at .369 and 2.6, again, respectively.
* Manny’s has a career .270 ISO (despite a horrible season in 2007, where he posted a .199 ISO over 569 PAs [6.2% of his career]); this season, that figure sits at .314.
* Manny’s career HR/FB rate is 21.9%; this season, Manny is hitting more FBs than last year and is sporting a 21.3% HR/FB rate.
* Manny’s HRs this season average 410.5 FT in distance; the league average home run this season is under 400 FT in distance.
* Manny’s K rate is down almost 2.6 points (11.8%) this season against his career rate.

So sure, the ISO, BABIP are most likely going to regress towards his career rates — perhaps a little lower due to aging — going forward on the season, but Manny is still nonetheless one of baseball’s premier offensive threats. His pure awesomeness is no news to ANYONE (27 ADP this preseason), but his continued success is incredibly impressive. Steroids or not, Manny is one of the greatest hitters of all time. I’d probably argue Manny is a top ten player in the game’s history, especially given the right-handedness, but I’m no expert on baseball pre-2003.

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