Scrabble Spells “Fair Deal” for Cards
Ed. Note: Four people were injured in the copyediting of this article.
One word. Change one word of the trade description, and you might see a world in which the Cardinals got fair value for Colby Rasmus in their trade Wednesday night.
The consensus for the most part is that Alex Anthopoulos pulled a coup when he acquired a young left-handed center fielder with power and speed and a decent glove for his collection of spare parts. A rental starter, a rental backup center fielder, a rental righty reliever, and a young lefty reliever is all that it took to get Rasmus. But then there’s that one word — reliever.
Call Marc Rzepczynski a young lefty starter, and suddenly things might seem a little more even.
A lot could be made of ‘Scrabble’ not being up to snuff in the American League East, and that he’s been moved to relief for a reason. You don’t have to look too far past Ian Kennedy to realize, though, that the AL East is a crucible reserved for the dominant and for the veteran. Escape the harder league and the hardest division, and things look a little better.
Rzepczynski is called a LOOGY — and his 4.18 xFIP against righties, at first blush, doesn’t suggest that he can’t hack it in a full-time role. Sure, he’s not as good against them. His 9.47 K/9, 2.98 BB/9 and 60.3% GBs versus lefties is much better than his 7.65 K/9, 4.62 BB/9 and 52.2% GBs against right-handed hitters. But those numbers against righties aren’t terrible, especially if he can improve his control. Considering his better-than-average control against lefties — and consistently decent minor league walk rates — it’s not a stretch to imagine the 25-year-old in the Cards’ rotation at some point.
He doesn’t lack the tools to iron out his split and his sinking fastball and his slider both have hefty platoon splits when thrown by a righty to a lefty. That might be contributing to his problems. But changeups are a great equalizer. They either have no platoon splits or a reverse one. As a reliever, Rzepczynski has moved away from his change, but he’s still used it around 10% of the time and it’s close to a scratch pitch by linear weights (-3.5 runs career). He can make it work.
What Rzepczynski does do well is combine strikeout stuff with ground balls. All that despite his lack of elite velocity. His fastball hasn’t averaged 90 mph over his career, but he has an above-average swinging strike rate (9% career) anyway. The slider is his best pitch, and he uses it a third of the time with strong results (+19.6 runs career).
We know from Matt Swartz’s work on SIERA that 60% ground ball rates are exponentially better than 50% rates, so it’s not surprising that Rzepczynski has seen his best results when he’s pushed his ground-ball rate over that threshold. Who better to help the young lefty work on retaining those results while moving back into the rotation than ground-ball wizard Dave Duncan?
Still, there hasn’t been an indication that this is what the Cardinals are thinking. Kyle McClellan has long been rumored to be returning to the bullpen, but he will be replaced in the short term by Edwin Jackson. In order to become the starter and fully realize his potential, Rzepczynski needs to beat out Jake Westbrook, who’s under contract for 2012. His advantage (other than his current FIP and xFIP, which are both a full run better than Westbrook’s) is the fact that he’s under team control until 2015. As the rest of the team gets older and more expensive, Scrabble could morph into an affordable starter for the long-haul.
This year, we’ve seen Justin Masterson overcome a platoon split that’s even more pronounced, and he’s done it without a real changeup. With a little bit of work, the Cardinals might just find themselves with a young lefty starter with a wicked slider — on the cheap.
Is that the same value as a young center fielder with power and speed under control until 2014? Maybe not, but it’s a heck of a lot closer.
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As a Cardinals fan (and a huge Rasmus fan, his name is on the back of my cardinals shirt), I feel like the team got better with this deal. I never worry about a pitchers numbers that we acquire because of Dunc is more time or not going to make them at least bump up on level. I feel like the team got a lot better with this trade.
FWIW, Duncan this morning said he doesn’t view Rzepczynski as a starter in the future. He also admitted that he hasn’t seen him much, either.
All this. Rzep is not to be trifled with. I may, in fact, love him.
Coming from a Jays fan. We tried him as a starter and he didn’t look anywhere close to as good as a starter then he does as a reliever. Sometimes people are moved to the pen purely based on there not being enough room in the rotation at the moment, this is not one of those cases.
These articles popping up defending the Cards are all kind of funny. It’s like someone is picking on your little brother and you are all compelled to jump in and defend him even if he really is a little dork that needs his butt kicked.
Does everyone not hate the Cardinals? Is it just me?
No offence, people of St. Louis!
Most pitchers don’t look anywhere close to as good as starters compared to relievers. This is why the replacement level FIP for relievers is much higher.
A league-average starter (what Rzep almost certainly is, at least, looking at a 3.94 xFIP as a starter in the AL East) is worth more than the most dominant situational reliever.
He doesn’t need to be as dominant in the rotation as he is in the pen to have value. If he can keep up that 3.94xFIP over a full season starting, he’s actually quite probably a decent #3, regardless of what he “looks” like.
Rasmus probably should have netted more, but, that being said, I wouldn’t be surprised at all if Duncan turns Jackson into an excellent pitcher and Rzep into a decent back of the rotation guy. The Cards may look like winners in this trade in a couple of years, provided they resign Jackson.
Jackson’s going to have what? 8 Starts as a Cardinal? I’d be stunned if Duncan improves on Jackson’s performance (4 WAR pace in 2011).
I think Jackson gives StL 5 QS and 3 non-QS (but not horrific) starts. I think Marc, McClellan and Dotel improve the bullpen, and at least for 2011, Jon Jay maintains the pace that is equal to or better than Rasmus’s 2011.
This trade is only bad for StL if we look at 2012 and 2013 without considering that StL is trying like hell to make the 2011 playoffs in what could be the final season for 1-2 monumental Cardinals.
Too many are looking at this trade while neglecting that StL and TOR are in two different situations and ignoring the ultimate goal of the MLB is to make the playoffs with a chance to win the title.
I’m actually surprised that we haven;t seen a “remaining WAR production” for the remainder of the year type analysis to get an approximation of how the trade values for each team involved.
[1] EJax is 1 WAR for the remainder of the year, so is Rasmus.
[2] However Rasmus’s replacement is likely worth the same value, whereas Jackson is almost a full win surplus over the guy he replaces, [3] who is a 1/2 win better than the reliever he replaces,
[4] who is a partial win better than the guy he replaces.
In the end, StL could be “up” 2 wins for the remainder of the season via this trade. All the while giving up a young player whose production is likely matched by his replacement, another young player that makes even less money.
The lack of this analysis, or anything above “Rasmus is a 4 WAR CF under team control with unlimited potential” and “Jackson is an average SP rental” is just mind-boggling.
FG is reputed to be the “advanced analysis” site, yet I’m not seeing it in the analysis of these trades (where the fun is, IMHO).
If they mess with the rotation a bit Jackson could start 10, I believe.
“The lack of this analysis, or anything above “Rasmus is a 4 WAR CF under team control with unlimited potential” and “Jackson is an average SP rental” is just mind-boggling.
FG is reputed to be the “advanced analysis” site, yet I’m not seeing it in the analysis of these trades (where the fun is, IMHO).”
And FWIW I totally agree with this. I think my back-of-a-cigarette-packet math is similar to yours – this trade nets the Cards 1-2 wins in a close pennant race. Obviously Rasmus is much better than Rzep going forward, most likely, but IIRC Rzep is under team control for one more season, and the deal also includes two likely supplemental draft picks (for Dotel and Jackson) to the Cardinals. Ultimately the balance of the trade depends on whether Rzep makes it as a starter, but even if he doesn’t I don’t think it’s necessarily a terrible deal. If he does, or if Colby’s struggles prove more long-term, it could actually be a good one (see below).
Your analysis totally hand waves Jay into Rasmus, when FG type analysis will tell you that is not supported in any way.
Jay’s BABIP is going to regress. Even in 2011 I don’t know that this is a slam dunk for the Cards. I find it funny that there aren’t articles popping up that mention the idea of a Jackson/Jay regression in the second half of 2011.
Dotel would only net a draft pick if the Cards decline his 2012 option, then offer him arbitration, and he declines that offer. There’s risk there for the Cards because Dotel very well may not decline an offer of arbitration and the Cards would be stuck paying him more in 2012 than had they just exercised the option in his current contract (since arbitration usually results in a raise for the player over the previous season’s salary).
Jackson is pretty good right now… He’s been the best starter on the White Sox since they got him (5 WAR over the last year) and very consistent… Better defense behind him and run support, and I’d expect him to be fairly dominant down the stretch in the NL (look how he did the last two months last year).
Thats because he got to face the inferior AL competition
“if Duncan turns Jackson into an excellent pitcher and Rzep into a decent back of the rotation guy. The Cards may look like winners in this trade in a couple of years, provided they resign Jackson.”
Well that’s only three “if’s” in your two-sentence scenario. It’s not hard to envision any team winning any trade they’re involved in if everything breaks exactly right for them.
Jackson already is an excellent pitcher.
He certainly a good one, if he was really smart he would sign a 2/20-25 deal in STL and spend a couple years getting the Pineiro/Carpenter treatment then hit the FA market as a bonafide ace
How many “bonafide aces” are there and what is your criteria for them?
The idea that Rasmus WILL become a bona vide 5-WAR+ CF in the next 3 years is a big “if” as well. Of his three seasons so far, only one has been significantly above average. I’d imagine a breakout, aged 25, next year is quite likely, but it’s by no means definite, and there remain significant questions about his defense. Whilst his routes to the ball are good, he’s quite error-prone and is very bad at communicating with his fellow outfielders, and has a terrible arm (both in terms of accuracy and strength). If he can’t stick at CF this becomes a whole different situation.
As I say, I expect him to improve and probably put up 4-5 WAR years over the three that Toronto “own”, but thus far he’s really only been about a 3 WAR player. IF he never progresses from that, the Cardinals don’t lose as much here as it would appear.
Rzep is legit and this article is accurate, he might quickly make the Cards feel a lot better about the deal. He has the potential in the lousy NL to be a strikeout/groundout machine as a starter.
Still love the Jays end of course but it wasn’t a total heist.
*unless you are a Sox fan… yikes
*unless you are a Yankees fan
*unless you are a non-orioles (or jays obviosuly) fan. yikes!
As for the Dave Duncan thing, I acknowledge he does damn good work but you can’t be pulling his name out every time they trade for a pitcher and pretending that the pitcher instantly is more valuable. This is fangraphs, they have a stat for everything, and people go around talking of magic.
Agreed, I am sure good pitching coaches with stellar reps do have a big impact on inconsistent starters but how can we quantify that body of work? Pre/post trade rates?
I remember a Rick Peterson once said he could fix the other Zambrano in one week…. that turned out well.
Additionally, Edwin Jackson is coming to Duncan from Don Cooper, who is also acknowledged as doing great work with pitchers. We can’t just keep assuming a pitcher will get better with every big league stop because the new team has a good pitching coach.
He has awful arm action which will probably prevent him from ever throwing 200 innings. This is apparent the first time you watch him. It’s just ugly.
This has been the opinion of multiple scouts throughout his development. Keith Law being one of them.
That being said, he’s very much not a scrub reliever and will help the Cards out for the next 4 years.
Another point in his favor is his new home stadium. Busch is pretty hard on RHB, with a park factor of 74 for HR, 96 for wOBA.
The difficult part of the “fair” or “ewin-lose” part of the trade is that we’re going to look at “player WAR” and contract years and things of that nature, when StL is trying to win the division THIS year, and TOR is playing for the future.
Of course, TOR is going to look better in all such deals. But, TOR is trying to be playing in the situation StL is in this year.
If StL makes the playoffs this year (considering everything that has happened in 2011 and may happen in 2012), that has to at least equalize the difference in WAR that TOR may have over StL in this trade (and they may not have any more WAR).
StL and TOR are in 2 very different places in 2011.
Why don’t we take a look at Atlanta and the trade they had with the Jays at last year’s deadline.
Escobar is a top 5 SS in the league at the moment while Gonzalez has been so bad this year that they have resorted to Lugo.
Just cause you make the playoffs doesn’t make you ‘win’ a trade or ‘even’ out the war
The difference is that StL has a 4th OF that is producing at the same rate as Rasmus.
The deal only looks really bad if [1] StL doesn’t make the playoffs, [2] Rasmus turns out to really be a 4+ WAR OF.
I’m not going to get into a discussion about whether he will or won’t or whether Bautista will be “Uncle Joe” to Colby, or anything of that nature. That’s all perception.
By definition, Cameron Maybin is still a 5-star potential player.
I agree that TLR is impeding Rasmus’s performance (also perception), but I also think we have to temper our initial MLB projections for Rasmus. He may not turn out to be Van Slyke and Edmond’s love child. He may just be Van Slyke Lite, just without the witty personality everyone loved.
The problem is that current production rate isn’t the best predictor of future performance rate. That’s Naive Bayes.
John Jay has been punching above his weight class. Any analysis that considers Jay’s production as a constant is somewhat flawed.
Cool buzz word mentioning Bayes. What analysis do you have that Jay is punching above his weight and what is his weight?
Jay doesn’t have to produce at Rasmus’ rate for this deal to be just about palatable for the Cardinals. He has to be about average (2 WAR), and Rasmus to not exceed 4 WAR going forward by too much. They can take a 2 WAR hit in CF for the next three years, I imagine, if Scrabble pans out either as a dominant set-up man or average to above-average starter, and they get at least one pick (but pref. two) from the Jackson/Dotel duo.
Even if Rzep turns into a middle of the rotation starter, it’s still not a “fair deal” for the Cards.
Admittedly he has shown better GB% and BB% numbers this year, but I don’t think that’s an indication that he’s performed better, but that he’s faced more LH hitters. This year half his innings are vs LH hitters vs the 25% or so he faced when he was starting. I think it’s worthwhile for the Cards to try him out as a starter, and I wish the Jays would have given him a larger opportunity to do it with.
For what it’s worth, during this KLaw chat (http://espn.go.com/sportsnation/chat/_/id/27357/mlb-insider-keith-law) which was pre 2010, here’s what he had to say about Rzep on whether he sees him as a SP or a RP:
KLaw: I think he’s a reliever – low slot, bad arm action, significant platoon split in the minors.
If Rzep can cut it as a starter, it makes the deal slightly more tolerable for the Cards. But I’d agree with Law, having seen Rzep. I don’t think his arm would do well over 200 innings, especially since his career high in innings pitched in a season is around 150. You’d have to wait until next year to stretch him out, so he may not even reach 200 innings until what, 2013?
I like Rzep and wish him the best with the Cards. Loved watching him pitch, but I think he’s best suited for a relief role.
“Even if Rzep turns into a middle of the rotation starter, it’s still not a “fair deal” for the Cards.”
I don’t know, it looks like it to me. Even if we assume Rasmus is a 4-WAR CF (not necessarily certain, as the only time he’s exceeded that value was with a huge BABIP last year), you’re trading 3 years of a 4-WAR guy for the haul the Cardinals got. Assuming he gets paid something like $3m/$5m/$8m in arbitration, and 1 WAR is worth $4m, that’s $48-16 = $32m in surplus value.
The Cardinals improve maybe 1-2 wins this year, which in a contending season is worth more than the $8m or so surplus value that would be worth on the FA market, but let’s call it just $8m anyway. We’ll assume the trade is basically payroll-neutral this year, as cash considerations could be part of the deal and the Cardinals lost a couple of guys (Miller, Tallet) that they’re paying a couple of million to. So – $8m surplus value to the Cards this year.
Dotel and Jackson are probably worth a supplemental pick each, CBA permitting. Assuming $5m per pick, that’s another $10m surplus value.
So that means Rzep has to be worth $14m surplus value over the remainder of his contract to make the deal break even, from Mozeliak’s perspective. I believe he has 4 years of team control left. If we call a “mid rotation starter” a 2-3 WAR guy, 4 years of 2.5WAR = 10WAR, or $40m of value. If we assume a similar arbitration package to Rasmus ($3m/5m/8m or so), that’s $26m of surplus value, giving the Cards a “win” of $12m surplus value.
IF Rzep is a mid-level starter (or even a mere average one), this deal is a good one for the Cards. If he remains a competent reliever only, it’s a loss.
This is the type of thinking I’d like to see in trade analysis.
I can get “Rasmus is awesome, Jackson is bad or average” anywhere else.
This is exactly the type of analysis implicit in my article. I saw it similarly and so wrote about how Rzep, if a starter, could change the balance of the trade. So, I agree with you!
Actually, this is the type of thinking that leads to misanalysis. You can’t make a 4-for-1 kind of trade, add up WAR, and reach a conclusion based on (WAR*costperwin) – salaries.
Roster spots have value that isn’t necessarily replacment level. If the Cardinals, for all of the positions and all of the years you added up, had precisely replacement level players available as alternatives, then sure, you’re right. What are the odds of that? Without Jackson and possibly Rzep in the rotation, are they going to be starting 0 WAR pitchers in their places?
I understand the 1-2 win added idea based on the current roster shifts, and that’s pretty reasonable and doesn’t require guess-casting. This long term stuff, though, is really pushing it.
Todd; that point works both ways. Yes, Rzep presumably replaces someone like Lance Lynn in the rotation, who may be a 1-2 WAR pitcher, or perhaps Kyle McClellan, who may be a 1 WAR pitcher with a prevailing wind (although I actually anticipate their being at least one free spot next season, due to the likelihood of injury setbacks for guys like Westbrook, Lohse and Wainwright on his return from TJ, and beyond 2012 there’s 2-3 free spots in the rotation, so plenty of room for guys like this). In reality, he probably replaces Chris Carpenter next year, allowing the Cards to decline his $15m (or is it 18m, can’t recall) option.
HOWEVER, they’re not simply “losing” all of Rasmus’ WAR either. Next year they have Matt Holliday, Jon Jay and Allen Craig all under contract. Jay’s probably a league-average guy (he’s been a 3-4WAR guy so far but with a huge amount of BABIP luck), but then so is Craig – good minor league hitter, maybe average-ish in a corner spot. The Cardinals have more than 25 above-replacement-level players in the system, so NOBODY is going to be replaced by a true replacement-level scrub going forward (except in the middle infield where the system is essentially barren).
Of course it works both ways! That’s my point! This WAR analysis stuff just doesn’t work that simply in the long term.
Could StL have gotten more for Colby Rasmus? idk, but if you can isolate how it affects the Cardinals, it certainly makes them a better team this year. Jon Jay is not as good as Rasmus, but Jay is only one year older and probably won’t be vastly different in terms of WAR (maybe a 2 WAR player compared to a 3-4 WAR). Edwin Jackson and Rez just need to make up the difference.
Whether Jay is “not as good as Colby” is subject to a lot of speculation by Cardinal fans. Jay’s OPS+ the past 2 years is 120 vs Rasmus’ 111.
We can talk tools until the cows come home, but, it’s hard to measure potential, particularly when it’s been largely unrealized.
I agree that the Cardinal team is better with the pitching additions. Heck, moving McClellan back to the pen is pretty big at this point.
It will be hard to fairly measure the trade even beyond 2011. I doubt the Cards will get a sandwich pick for Dotel, as I find it unlikely they’ll offer him arbitration. But, it is possible that Jackson will get them 2 picks if he finishes well.
I think this is a great trade for the Jays, which pretty much everyone agrees on. While I don’t think its great for the Cards, I don’t think its as terrible as many are making it out to be. It does seem like they could’ve gotten more, but at least to me, given their situation, it seems reasonable.
Cards: Treat Rzep well and you may end up liking this deal. He’s been tried in the starter’s role, but maybe like Brandon Morrow in Seattle, he wasn’t given enough of a chance. But the Jays didn’t need him in the starter’s role with an expected rotation of Marcum, Romero, Morrow Cecil and Litsch with Drabek knocking on the door. He’s been used as more than a LOOGY, however. In 39 appearances, he’s been used for 2 or more innings 6 times for a total of 12.2 innings and faced 42 batters in those appearances, only 4 above the minimum. His WPA in those appearances sums to 0.959.
There is versatility with how he gets used. Potentially, he converts back to a starter and succeeds, but at a minimum he’s an effective swingman/long reliever who can be used as a LOOGY when needed.
Unless St. Louis retains E-Jax past this year, the trade is an absolute steal for the Jays. I don’t know what I’m more shocked at, that St Louis pulled the trigger on that deal or that no other team in the league topped it…Rzepcynski will never pitch enough innings to be a #3,4 starter, his delivery screams future shoulder problems.
Maybe I’m alone in this, but I hate this line of thinking. The Cardinals only traded for the rest of Edwin Jackson’s 2011 season. Considering he’s a Scott Boras client, it’s not likely Edwin will be taking a discount after the season to stay with the Cardinal – so if they retain him, it will be at a price that would’ve almost certainly also landed him as an offseason free agent signing without making this trade.
There is obviously a difference in draft compensation as a result of the trade, but I think it’s disingenuous to assume potentially re-signing Edwin as a free agent before 2012 counts as an outcome of this trade.
Okay, I admit I am a Jays fan, but anyone who says the Jays didnt steal Rasmus is crazy. I blame this transaction solely on that crazy manager in St. Louis. I also have to give so much credit to AA for his genius. Rasmus is a legit 5-tool talent with a good glove. Remember when we got Yunel last year…. look how that has turned out for us (I still feel guilty for how cheap we got him). I see the same thing happening with Rasmus. How can you people not see that Rasmus is a future anual All-Star. Rczep is a great reliever and is nasty Left-on-Left. Having watched him pitch as a starter, I do not want him anywhere near 200 innings a year with his delivery/heavy reliance on his slider. I see him as a quality 8th inning guy or Lefty specialist, but not a starter, and I think Toronto knows that. Rasmus is going to thrive in Toronto. Too many times I saw Pujols giving him the cold shoulder in the dugout, and look for Bautista (a great vocal leader) to bring him around (just as he has with Yunel). Toronto is going to be dangerous in a year or two if the young rotation pitching works out. I am pumped
I didn’t realize Tony Rasmus was a Jays fan, nice to have you on the board.
Good luck on your assesment. Colby has issues. LaRussa doesn’t seem to have any problem with Jay.
Yeah, and Scott Rolen had issues with LaRussa, and look how many problems he’s caused.
LaRussa has had run-ins such as this before Cards fan. Zaun said it best last night on the teli…. “LaRussa thought Rolen was a cancer in the locker room, and to be honest, he is one of the best human beings I have ever played with.” I can understand why you are upset though Cards fan, it is never easy to lose a future star for Edwin Jackson and a few relievers. We got Rasmus cheap because of his apparent ‘problems’. Seems to me that LaRusa is running a baseball club in 2011 with the mentality of a 1970′s manager. Things have changed, and players are now more ‘media-involved’ than they were then and it is up to the manager to understand how to change managerial practices with the times. I find it funny to hear what we did about Yunel and then to see him perform as he has with a more ‘new-wave’ manager. AA is a god in Canada….. like a baseball Gretzky
Great. Maybe one of these days you’ll end the season with a winning record.
That was the point of the trade Cards fan…… Also remember that you dont play half of your games against the Rays, Sox and Yanks. Do you think the pirates would be above .500 in the AL East?
Re: “Yeah, and Scott Rolen had issues with LaRussa, and look how many problems he’s caused.”
Scott Rolen is a fine player. But, St Louis wasn’t the only place he couldn’t get along with the manager. He wasn’t in Toronto long enough to butt heads there and his decline in Cincy makes manager issues there problematic.
One cant help but notice that you did not answer my question….. So you honestly feel that you would rather have E-Jax (for the rest of the year) and a few relievers over Rasmus?
Rolen had issues in Philly too.
Re: “Do you think the pirates would be above .500 in the AL East?”
I don’t know why I would care how the Pirates would do in the AL East. Can’t help but notice that they did sweep the AL East series winning 2 of 3 against Baltimore, Boston and Toronto. All that with a $42M payroll. So how much of a genius is your GM anyway?
Re: “So you honestly feel that you would rather have E-Jax (for the rest of the year) and a few relievers over Rasmus?”
Let’s just say that I don’t think the Cards win the division with Colby, and they may be able to do so with those three pitchers.
I do find it annoying that all the eggsperts(sic) are quick to declare victory without experiencing a full year of Colby’s antics. I wish you well. He simply didn’t work out in St Louis and blaming it entirely on LaRussa is ignorant.
TOR’s manager is a former pitcher and new to managing. It is entirely possible that he is willing to let Rasmus’s dad “coach him” in regards to mechanics, approach, etc … as long as Rasmus produces.
The issues with Rasmus surfaced in the minors when he wasn’t working on what the club wanted him to work on, and during 2011 when he was struggling, playing disinterested, and refusing to listen to coaches. Not many teams are going to tolerate that if they don;t have to.
I think Rasmus is the only teammate to ever get Pujols riled up. That indicates something.
But, Toronto is in a different situation. They’re primarily a young team, and a huge underdog that won;t come with division champ expectations, and will get to lay low and play the spoiler role and any chance at a division title will be a welcome surprise, rather than the expectation going into the season. Low pressure environment.
What I would really like to know is what advise from mcGwire and coaches was Rasmus ignoring and what was his dad telling him. It’s easy to say “he should listen to his coaches” or “they should just leave him alone”, but it’s inaccurate without knowing the details.
It is very possible that TLR is an arrogant, overbearing dick and Rasmus is a little mamby-pamby, daddy’s boy, pussy whiner. Wow, that was a lot for one sentence. All I mean is that it’s not a dichotomy … they can both have majorly flawed personalities (and that might be the most accurate scenario).
@Cards fan, the Jays have had winning records 5 of the past 6 years, so yes, thanks for wishing us luck with having a winning record.
I’ve also read reports that LaRussa had issues with Ozzie Smith of all people.
Scrabble being a LOOGY this year has definitely affected his numbers for the better.
Except for the fact that his numbers have been best when he pitches 2 or more innings: Only 4 batters faced over the minimum (2 singles and 2 walks) 12 SO (8.53 SO/9) and a 0.71 ERA!
Its strange, long relief hasn’t been a problem for the Jays this season, single innings have been ugh, but 2 or more have been great. Not just for Zep, but all relievers.
everyone seems to be ignoring one important fact:
the cardinals acquired scrabble: the man with the best nickname in baseball.
Thats true, although prepare for Scrabble to get called Rapunzle from other teams fans when he has a terrible game.
As cute as “Scrabble” is for a nickname, I am actually thankful for this trade because it made me memorize how to spell Rzepczynski’s name without having to look it up. I still can’t PRONOUNCE it for shit, but I can at least spell it right.
prounced Zep-Chin-Ski
Should be pronounced roughly zhep-CHING-ski, at least I assume that his name is really (if you go back far enough) Rzepczy?ski.
eric, below, has the common pronunciation.
Matt,
How dare you fail to perpetuate the “Anthropolous is the best GM of all time” meme! This is outrageous. You should really be fired. He’s like Einstein, Socrates and Billy Beane all wrapped up into one genius level GM. He’s so much smarter than the other GMs it isn’t funny, and to not mention this is just ridiculous. Seriously man.
Sorry Eno, I don’t know why I was thinking of Klaassen.
would have been a good effort if you hadn’t screwed up the author
Basing your analysis on a 4 WAR ceiling for Rasmus based on his first 385 games of his career seems awfully short-sighted. The fact last season was the “only” time he has surpassed that mark is of less relevance than you imply since he is only in the midst of his third season in the majors. IF you use a depressed ceiling for Rasmus based on his performances and IF you use an inflated ceiling for Rzepczynski despite his performances and IF you include draft-pick compensation that might not even exist then yes, this trade could be fair. That seems to be a lot of ifs though.
The Jays traded a rental starter, two relievers (the Cards have no plans to even try Rzep in the rotation), and a replacement-level OF for a 24 year-old above-average CF with a huge ceiling.
It’s an absolute fleecing however you look at it.
It’s possible. But given present situations, the trade makes StL a better team for 2011 … and perhaps by a decent amount.
The trade may hurt them in 2012 and/or 2013, etc. But, not in 2011, in trying to win the division. Not just that but in a year where two of their best players may not be with the team the following year. The Cards in 2012 might be a team that is ~10 WAR lighter than it is this year.
I repeat, StL is trying to win the division (not finish 3rd for the next few years). It’s probably not a good trade for StL in the “long term”. But, short term and in trying to make the playoffs, it’s a good trade.
I don’t think Jon Jay is the same potential player as Rasmus, but he’s performing the same (I don;t like to recognize that). Again, if we as a community value WAR, and examine things like BABIP and the like, then we have to look at Rasmus as what he has done, not that he might be possibly Jim Edmonds someday if everything goes “right”.
Some articles highlight the importance of making the playoffs, and other articles ignore its impact entirely. They put up banners for titles, not consecutive 85 win seasons. I’m a Cardinal and Rasmus fan. But, in looking at how the added pitching helps the Cardinals via chaining, I’d rather go for the playoffs in 2011 than have Rasmus for 2012 and 2013 (especially given his relationship with the manager/fans/media).
You can make the playoffs in the terrible NL Central without resorting to trading one of the better, cost-controlled CF’s in baseball for peanuts.
And from there, as Cardinals fans know better than anybody (see the 2006 WS title with a mediocre team), it’s a crap shoot.
@circle
true/false: EJax will be the best starter moved at the deadline.
In terms of WAR? Yes.
In terms of WAR + expiring contract? Hell Yes.
In terms of “true talent” (whatever that means and by whatever metric you’re using to measure it)? Maybe not.
There’s a chance Ubaldo gets traded, and I would view him as being more “talented” than Jackson, but Jackson has produced more WAR this year.
I don’t think the CWS were willing to give up Buehrle, Danks, Floyd or other starter that was under contract for 2012.
@JoshCohen
Looks like Ubaldo is being traded to CLE for Pomeranz, Alex White, and another.
Let the future WAR calculations run wild. *grin*
Has anyone considered that my son might just start OPSing .950 and reach his potential by being able to listen to my advanced coaching instruction.
This article considers the upsides of other players, but I mean, Rasmus is already in the 3-4 WAR range… if he gets up to the 5-6, the Jays win this BIG time.
Downside for Jays is a minimal loss.
Upside is a huge win.
Thanks for reminding me of the best part of this trade for Cardinal fans. :o)
Well, on my Out of the Park baseball game, Rzepczynski turned into a good starter for me, so I guess it is possible. Haha
Why is it that everyone focusing on what the Jays got a great deal from the Cards? Does everyone forget to include the players sent to Chicago and salary picked up(Teahan) to acquire Jackson?
Because we sent a potential 4th starter to them (one who might end up stuck in the pen), and a rental Relief pitcher?
And ate approx 7 million dollars to acquire Rasmus. Just sayin
Are you refering to Teahan? If so, think about it this way. Vernon Wells trade gave The Jays the financial room to sign Joey Bats for 5 years and acquire Rasmus.
Why the A’s didn’t top what Tor gave up for Rasmus is beyond me.
I wonder if things like this, teams seemingly in need not getting in on it, reveal something of how the trade process works? Did StL not get that Tor offer and then call around?
I do not see how Billy Beane, if told he could get Rasmus so cheaply, would not top that offer. A’s pitching is crazy deep. Doesn’t matter if this is a “selling” year not a “buying” one. Rasmus is just as good or better than all the A’s one year contract OFs, with way more upside.
There had to be a better deal out there for StL, very strange.
As a Jays fan, I’m not going to pretend that the Cards got good value here, but personally I love Rzep, and think that he could have hacked it as a middle of the rotation starter even in the AL East, let alone anywhere else.
I think your pitching coach will take back those words about not seeing him as a potential starter pretty quickly once he starts working with him. His combination of Ks and GB is pretty damn rare.
All that being said, the kid will be a fairly dominant reliever if they keep him in the ‘pen.
I love Rzep. Not enough for Rasmus, but still a quality asset.
If you still love Rasmus a couple years from now then you have my permission to declare victory on this trade.
zep falls into the same mold as liriano and erwin, pitchers with no fastball command and a big breaking ball. For these guys, their approach to pitching is throwing their fastball down the middle to get two strikes and throw nothing but sliders afterwards. They rely on the velocity and movement of the heat to kee it from being crushed, but unlike the others zep doesnt have that velocity in the rotation, and he literally has no clue where that pitch is going once he releases it.
No chance he makes a successful rotation bid outside of PETCO park.
He’s been successful as a starter already. How do you reconcile that?
4..35 ERA as a starter in 23 starts, 4.39 FIP.
His stuff is best suited to the bullpen
A limited sample size against hitters unfamiliar with him, and even then after the first couple of starts teams were starting to pound him.
Hmmmm. 3.94 xFIP as a starter, in your early 20s, in the AL East doesn’t look too bad. He got pounded by the Yankees murderers’ row but I believe he had something like a 3.50 ERA against all the other teams he faced. In the NLC he’ll be facing the likes of the Cubs, Astros and Reds. Not the BoSox and Yankees. I think if you can have some measure of success in the hardest division in baseball, when you’re effectively still learning to some extent, you’ve got a shot at being better than a 2 WAR SP in the NL Central.
He also had a pretty good pedigree as a starter in the minors. I agree that his stuff looks much more like a bullpen arm, but then I’d say the same about guys like Colby Lewis. If he can handle 160+ IP (which is still debatable) I think moving him to the rotation next year is a good idea.
I mean he compares alot to Scott Down’s in terms of whether he’ll be a reliever or a starter. I love Zep, but I think he’s going to be a bullpen arm. I remember debating this for hours about who was going to be a better starter, Cecil or Zep
Rzep has already been MUCH better as a starter than Scott Downs ever was.
How has he been better then Scott Downs ever was?
Scott Downs: 4.65 FIP, 3.97 xFIP as a starter in 50 starts
Marc Rzep: 4.35 FIP, 3.94 xFIP as a starter in 23 starts
Scott Downs has been one of the better Lefty releif pitchers since 2007
Jays have a pretty good track record when it comes to fixing problem childs (see Bautista, Escobar, Lawrie)
The gamble here is pretty good.
There’s a lot of “ifs” to justify this trade for the Cardinals. Marc has never averaged 6IP a start at any level, and it seemed his starts were short with the Jays… I think ultimately due to his efficiency problems, he’ll be a decent fifth starter.
However, I like Zepper a lot, and he seems to be a great guy. He could be a very good setup guy down the road, and he was always fun to watch. Wicked stuff.
People bringing up Dave Duncan.
Dwayne Murphy.
All Alex Anthopolous has to tell Colby is this. “See Jose over there, now see that black guy over there? Listen to him and you will do alright.”
That’s hilarious. You think a trade will wake Colby up?
The way that AA and John Farrell are working with him to understand what helps him, what him and his father work on, what they talk about I think it will.
Dwayne Murphy is known for working with what guys are comfortable with and adjusting to what works for them, not trying to give everyone that consensus perfect swing.
Of course.
TOR should start with some easy fixes, like curing Lind, Snider, and Encarnacion … then maybe try and “fix” Rasmus.
IMHO, Rasmus doesn’t need fixed. What needs to happen is that reduction of our expectations. At best, he’s Andy Van Slyke without the defense and the humor. Stop looking Rasmus and seeing “mid-2000s Sizemore”.
What?
Should Yunel have had a “reduction of expectations” after last year?
And “fix” Adam Lind? He completely turned it around from last year. Encarnacion has actually hit the ball better this year then last year to be honest, balls aren’t going out at the same rate, but 25 doubles.
Rasmus is having some horrible BABIP luck.
Rasmus has slumped for 3 months. He had a good year last year. I’m just not convinced yet he will achieve the consistency needed to become a 5-6 WAR player. Maybe. He hasn’t demonstrated it yet. I think TOR got the better of this deal but not by as much as some are saying.
The other dynamic here is Rasmus asked to be traded. Twice. It may not help in WAR value, but how much does it cost a team to have players that are whiny, struggle with the coach, ask to be traded? I don’t pretend to know how much players with bad attitudes cost a team, but it’s something greater than zero. Cardinals are running a business. They need a team of professionals. Jay might cost them a couple WAR, but help them in the PR department a bit.
Yunel Escobar didn’t help things. LaRussa, like Cox, can be a complete jackass.
I mean how do two nice guys, two very proffessional guys like JD Drew and Scott Rolen hate playing for the guy. I think that says something.
Both guys were viewed (by managers) to be far too willing to sit out with an ailment or injury or whatever.
To be fair, when Rolen left Philly, they weren’t broken hearted about it … and Rolen racked up ~30 WAR for PHL in 5.5 seasons. Fopr StL, he had 26 WAR in 5.5 seasons.
It does make you wonder how two different teams weren’t all that worried about losing a player that was good for 5 WAR a season. I’m guessing it has a lot to do with Rolen averaging 103 games per year over his last 3 seasons in StL and the “I’m hurt, no I can play” thing with Scottie in the 06 NLCS (after Spezio was tearing it up as a replacement).
JD Drew is a different situation. He created his own issues with the whole not signing with Philly (draft) unless he got 10M signing bonus … even went to Indy ball b/c of it. As a Cardinal, Drew averaged 116 games over 5 “full” seasons. He’s pretty much done the same as a Red Sox.
Lets just leave it at LaRussa is a horrible judge of character, because that was 2 examples off the top of my head where everyone has come out and said that LaRussa’s word isn’t worth much to them because of their experiences with those players.
LaRussa is going to kill the cards.