Comments on: Mariano Rivera’s Curious Rates

By: joser

joser — Sun, 21 Jun 2009 22:48:33 +0000

Not everybody who finds all things Yankee obnoxious is a Sox fan. If anything, the last few years, I’ve been finding all things BoSox even more obnoxious than the Yankees. Which is saying something. And something I didn’t think it was possible to say.

By: Rich

Rich — Thu, 18 Jun 2009 02:14:39 +0000

Thanks MPC. I need to check out his LD% in each situation.

joser,

If you’re a Sox fan, are truly unself-conscious.

By: joser

joser — Thu, 18 Jun 2009 00:47:04 +0000

He didn’t say that bringing up the point is obnoxious. He said some Yankee bloggers are obnoxious. Which is self-evidently true of almost everything related to the Yankees.

By: MPC

MPC — Wed, 17 Jun 2009 21:15:58 +0000

Rivera in save situations: .523 OPS against, 8.2 K/9, 4.6 K/BB, .38 HR/9
Non save situations: .581 OPS against, 8.6 K/9, 3.39 K/BB, .59 HR/9

In tie games, the OPS goes up to .665 and the K/BB drops to 2.77. BABIP also goes up to .319 (career .268).

By: Rich

Rich — Wed, 17 Jun 2009 20:48:03 +0000

*bringing up*

By: Rich

Rich — Wed, 17 Jun 2009 19:16:03 +0000

The reason for my post is that I would like to see a legitimate analysis from someone at FanGraphs.

I haven’t read the blogs you referenced, but I’m not sure why breaking up the point is obnoxious.

By: Jon

Jon — Wed, 17 Jun 2009 18:28:24 +0000

Some obnoxious Yankee bloggers have made that point time and time agian. I wonder has anyone done a legitimate analysis to see if his poor performance in tie games is statistically significant?

By: Rich

Rich — Wed, 17 Jun 2009 16:14:38 +0000

The most inexplicable aspect of Rivera’s last two seasons is that he is still very good in save situations but not good at all in tie games.

By: joser

joser — Wed, 17 Jun 2009 15:32:29 +0000

Of his 5 home runs, the first one was at Fenway (4/24) and the second one at Detroit (4/29, his next appearance) so it seems unlikely he was already adjusting his pitching for a stadium that hadn’t hurt him yet (and hadn’t even yet earned its homer-ific reputation). The remaining HRs were at NYS, two on the same terrible night against Tampa (5/7). Since then, he’s only given up one HR (5/20) in a span of 6 weeks and 15 appearances.

It’s hard to say with events that occur as erratically as home runs given up by closers, but it’s possible his HR rate is already regressing (and/or he’s fixed whatever problem he was having early in the season — ie, he now has adjusted how he pitches, and it’s working).

By: Mark R

Mark R — Wed, 17 Jun 2009 05:45:50 +0000

He’s toast. Rivera for Yuni Betancourt, straight up. The M’s will be doing New York a favor.