Matt Kemp Isn’t Bonds, But You Still Walk Him
In a couple of hours, for The Morning After, you’ll see the story of the Dodgers and Braves playing a fun, exciting, memorable game. It featured pitching dominance, comebacks, clutch two-out hits, and a walk-off. The game went 12 innings, but it could have gone longer. It probably should have gone longer, really. But Braves manager Fredi Gonzalez made a decision in the 12th that, I think, cost his team the game.
Criticizing the manager is as old as baseball itself, and most of the time it amounts to petty bickering. Armchair managing is easy, because the moves never blow up in our faces. But every once in a while there is a move so painfully wrong that a comment from the ivory tower is warranted. This is one of those instances. I simply cannot understand why Gonzalez would pitch to Matt Kemp in the 12th.
In the top of the ninth this game looked set. The Dodgers had taken a 2-1 lead in the seventh on a Casey Blake home run, and Clayton Kershaw was absolutely dealing. He had retired the first 10 batters of the game, and while the next 26 outs didn’t quite come as easily, he still got through them with only one run, a solo shot by Freddie Freeman, allowed. It was that 27th out that was difficult to come by.
With none on and two outs in the ninth, Kershaw allowed two straight singles, followed by a walk and then a single that plated two and gave the Braves the lead. Unpredictable, this game of baseball can be. The Dodgers did their part by eking out a run against Craig Kimbrel in the ninth, which set the stage for the 12th inning showdown that would have many fans scratching their heads.
Gonzalez had few options in terms of the bullpen. He had already used Kimbrel and Eric O’Flaherty, and Johnny Venters was unavailable due to arm soreness. That left Cristhian Martinez, who had 63 innings of big league experience, to handle some critical innings. None would be more critical than the 12th, when the Dodgers sent their 2-3-4 hitters — Blake, Andre Ethier, and Matt Kemp — to the plate. Martinez got Blake to ground out, but then Ethier doubled into the corner. That put the game-ending run on second with one out and Kemp at the plate.
It’s no secret that Kemp is one of the hottest hitters in baseball. He had been carrying his team through the first two weeks. The only other real offensive force on the team, Ethier, stood on second. First base was open. Juan Uribe, who is off to a terrible start, was on deck. Kemp’s run ultimately meant nothing, since the runner ahead of him would end the game once he touched home plate. Does it not seem like a fairly obvious decision to have the inexperienced Martinez walk Kemp and face Uribe? Gonzalez thought not.
Maybe he should have consulted Tangotiger’s When to Walk Barry Bonds chart. No, Kemp is not Bonds, especially not Bonds circa 2002, when Tango created the chart. But, to repeat, he is one of the hottest hitters in the league, and we know that in general he is a very good hitter. Better, surely, than Uribe, the man batting behind him. Scroll down on the chart to ninth inning, runner on second, one out, tie game. The instruction is not merely to walk. It is to “Walk, Now!” Again, that’s because Kemp’s run means nothing. It also puts on the double play possibility, and Uribe isn’t exactly immune from those.
Yet Gonzalez decided to have his inexperienced pitcher face Kemp. It appears that Kemp thought he’d be pitched around, because he took strike one right down the middle. He then swung over a pitch diving down, putting him in an 0-2 hole. The decision to pitch to him looked quite a bit better. That is, until Martinez threw the 0-2 pitch right down the middle. Fool Kemp once, sure. Fool him twice? Not a chance. He deposited it over the wall in center, giving his Dodgers the walk-off victory.
Before levying the charges against Gonzalez, I checked the Twitter feed and blog of Atlanta Journal-Constitution Braves beat writer David O’Brien. I also checked out the Braves’ MLB.com writer Mark Bowman, but he is apparently off this week so the MLB.com recap had to suffice. In no instance did I see Gonzalez answer a question about his decision to have Martinez face Kemp instead of Uribe. This appears odd, because I was screaming at my TV at the time, and I know that a few other baseball writers I follow and converse with were doing the same. The decision seemed odd enough that surely someone would ask about it. Alas, we’re left without answers.
The only possible point I can conjure to defend Gonzalez is how each hitter performed in the series. Kemp had just one hit in 14 PA leading up to his walk-off in the 12th, while Uribe had five hits in 12 PA, including a homer earlier in the game. Yet Uribe had also struck out twice earlier in the game, and it’s not as though he was putting on a laser show with his three hits the previous day. In other words, I don’t see why you’d weigh Uribe’s latest 12 PA so heavily when he’d looked like crap in the 60 PA that preceded them, while at the same time discounting Kemp’s body of work this season. Regardless of three-game trends, Kemp was clearly the more dangerous threat there.
As I said earlier, managing from the height of an ivory tower is quite easy. We can look down on managers and judge them, because our moves do not face repercussions. But in this case, I’m trying to descend to field level. I’m trying to think of reasons why Gonzalez would have the fifth-best pitcher in his bullpen face one of the three best hitters in the NL so far this season (and a generally good hitter outside this season). I have come up with nothing that would convince me that pitching to Kemp was the right move. I’m sure Gonzalez has his reasons, and I really wish that one of the beat writers had found them out. But I’m not convinced that his reasons will present strong enough evidence that would justify his non-move in this scenario.
Update: Via O’Brien, Gonzalez has explained himself. “We had handled him pretty good the whole series,” he said, while adding that if Kemp had gotten ahead in the count he probably would have walked him. Again, I find this inadequate. It completely ignores the pitcher on the mound and assumes that because the Braves’ better pitchers handled Kemp, that Martinez could do the same. I’m glad that someone asked the question, and I’m glad that Fredi gave an honest answer. But it still doesn’t add up.
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Joe – Welcome to the media in Atlanta. Dave O’Brien wouldn’t ask the manager a tough question if it saved his life. He will, however, berate any commenter and dismiss any blogger who questions his decision not to ask said question, because, well… he’s kind of a douche.
As for Fredi’s decision making, it has already become painfully obvious to many Braves fans that he has little overriding philosophy from which he draws. In the first game of the series, in the first inning (!), he opted to walk Kemp intentionally. And then in the bottom of the 12th with a man on second and first base open he chooses to pitch to him. I think he’s just guessing.
You didn’t hear? We all wanted Heyward batting 2nd for our fantasy teams. We all own him, and all have the same agenda!
He’s finally hitting Heyward higher in the order, but it’s decisions like this that make me really, really hope he’s doing some kind of behind-the-scenes intangible hocus-pocus like everyone said Bobby Cox did.
Great insight and great read. Fredi has been maddening so far this season. From bunting with Alex Gonzalez in the 9th of a one-run deficit (Matt Young and Brooks Conrado on deck) to bunting with Tommy Hanson with the bases loaded to misuse of the bullpen to strange pinch hitting calls…it’s been a mess. That saddest part of it all? Like you mentioned, Dave O’Brien and/or Mark Bowman haven’t even so much as asked for Fredi’s thought process on any of it.
I don’t know what their problem is, but their laziness is getting as old as Fredi’s mismanagement.
It’s still very early here.
Conrad instead of Conrado
The saddest part instead of That saddest part
Yikes….typos.
Its almost as if Fredi isn’t a very good manager. Its not like his teams in Florida had great fundamentals, played hard or made good decisions either. I guess no one else realized that as nobody really watched the Fish play the last few seasons.
Hanley wasn’t the only reason he was let go.
Of course Hanley wasn’t the only reason he was let go. Gotta remember, this is the same club who fired Girardi after winning Manager of The Year. Loria places unreasonable expectations on his club and when they fail to meet those expectations, the firing ensues. It’s only a matter of time before Edwin gets the axe.
this isnt even a case of statheads not like IBB, either, that was just bad baseball
That chart from Tango is awesome. If anyone want a project it would be cool to see such a chart that is customizable. Say, input the batter’s wOBA and it recalculates all of the advice.
Let’s:
1. Make this spreadsheet
2. Purchase iPad
3. Open spreadsheet on iPad
4. Give said iPad to Fredi
Thank you for this article. When I didn’t see anyone bring it up on the blog, or hear the announcers mention it at all, I thought I was taking crazy pills.
And for all the comparisons that are made between Gonzalez and Bobby Cox, Cox would NOT have pitched to Kemp.
“The game went 12 innings, but it could have gone longer. It probably should have gone longer, really.”
At that point, definitely. I was really hoping Kershaw would get the hook after 8, and Broxton would clean it up in the 9th, and things would have ended a lot sooner. Not an egregious call, but I was hoping for it in the 8th.
I think Mattingly expressing confidence in his closer the other day tells us everything we need to know about how much confidence he actually has in his closer.
Somehow lost in the shuffle of all this is that Frego brought in Brian McCann for DEFENSE in the ninth inning. Brian let a pitch get by him, as he has done a few times this year, and a runner advanced to second and later scored on a single to tie the game. What in the world is Frego thinking replacing the superior at defense David Ross with Brian McCann. Surely he didn’t actually think a double switch was needed (unless he expected Kimbrel to blow the save, that is). Seriously, an empty seat in the dugout could have managed the Braves to 10-11 right now.
Not only that, he called for a fastball on 0-2. I’m most certainly putting a slider in the dirt.
The 0-2 pitch was a slider……
I would have left Ross in, but the Braves were short on pitchers and the double-switch allowed Kimbrel to stay in for 2 innings. Not a terrible decision.
But it was a double switch in the 9th inning when the Braves had the lead, so Frego reduced the chances of winning in order to have a better chance to win only if Kimbrel blew the save. Honestly, the chances of giving up one and only one run in the ninth are very slim, and would have been even less if Ross was playing defense.
Mike is right. YOU PLAY TO WIN THE GAME. The only reason you pull a double switch there is if you’re playing for the tie, always a bad decision.
It’s simple. Ross is a much better defender. You leave him in. Especially at an important position like catcher.
also maddening was Mattingley leaving Kershaw in after he loaded the bases in the 9th and Broxton ready and Ross coming to the plate.
i think the consensus is that kershaw should have been taken out with uggla coming to the plate, if at all. if broxton had come in to face ross, fredi (one hopes) would simply have pinch hit mccann.
Soild work. This is the kind of excellent post game/morning after analysis that makes this baseball site excellent.
How about some numbers in this article? Also, :( @ “Kemp’s one of the hottest hitters in the league”.
If you follow the link on the hottest hitters line, I explain it more fully. I didn’t feel the need to repeat something I had written earlier in the week, especially since this got kind of long, anyway.
You pointed out that Uribe K’d twice in addition to his HR. You did not mention that Kemp had K’d THREE times that day. And THREE times the day before. I agree that you set up the double play. But to say that Kemp should be a feared beast is not right. He had two singles and two walks in 17 PA’s with 8 strikeouts leading up to the at bat. If Ethier had gotten out, do you still walk Kemp? At 0-2, things were looking pretty good. I agree, he should have been walked, but only because it set up the double play. Let’s not act like Kemp getting the game winner was a foregone conclusion.
I get that he *is* hot, my point was just that being “hot” isn’t very predictive (especially since lol .491 BABIP). ZIPS RoS projection has him at a very un-Bonds-like .356 wOBA – that seems like the relevant number to use for analysis. The frown indicated my inner turmoil at seeing a “hot streak” discussed as a relevant factor in decision-making on Fangraphs rather than ESPN. Not saying the IBB was or wasn’t correct, but would have been nice to see you crunch the actual numbers as well, with a reasonable estimate of his current TT.
Tulo is better.
Amazing insight. One wonders why you don’t have a job on Baseball Tonight with that gem.
The worst part about this is that on Tuesday, there was the following situation:
Kemp up, 1 out, runner on 2nd, tie game, 1st inning.
Fredi walked him (with Brandon Beachy pitching).
Yesterday, the situation was:
Kemp up, 1 out, runner on 2nd, tie game, 12th inning.
Fredi didn’t walk him.
the only plausible explanation is that fredi is just managing with his gut, which, to paraphrase nick hornby, has sh*t for brains.
DOB just tweeted this (guessing he started feeling heat): Here’s #Braves’ Fredi Gonzalez on not walking Kemp w/ 1st base open, 1 out, Uribe on deck & winning run on 2nd base in 12th inn. Thursday: “[Kemp] is a dangerous hitter; you have to respect him. We had handled him pretty good the whole series. I think that if the count would have been on Kemp’s side, I would have walked him and taken my chances with Uribe.” (In other words, if Martinez fell behind in count to Kemp, Gonzalez would’ve then had him walk him to bring up Uribe, who homered earlier Thurs. and was 7-for-16 w/ 5 RBIs in series. But since he got ahead in count 0-2, he thought Martinez was in position to put away Kemp.)
Of course a nice follow-up would have been asking about walking him in the first inning two days earlier and asking him to explain the inconsistencies. But DOB is DOB.
I would have walked any hitter in that situation. That is unless Barry Bonds was up next. At that point its DP infield fly or bust.
I hate the IBB, but you walk almost any hitter not named Butera, Tolbert, Casilla in that situation….don’t you?
Jason Repko feels left out.
It makes me happy that Braves lost :-)
1. What’s your win expectancy if you walk/don’t walk the batter
from the generic Win Expectancy table
2. Same question but now taking into consideration batters and pitchers skills.
Without these numbers, I couldn’t argue one way or the other.
Tie game, bottom of 9th (or later) inning, one out, runner on 2nd, home team win expectancy is .707; runners on 1st & 2nd, it rises to .717. (From The Book, table 10 http://www.insidethebook.com/.) So the generic answer is you don’t issue an intentional walk unless the batter at the plate is significantly better than the one on deck.The Book also says hot or cold streaks have little predictive value. Career Batting Average is probably the best guide to this situation, since you don’t care about extra bases or walks: any solid hit ends the game. Kemp clocks in a .289 vs. Uribe’s .255 . I don’t think that’s anywhere near enough to apply the Barry Bonds chart, but it does look more significant than the generic cost of issuing an IBB in this situation.
Thanks. You should’ve written the article. Doesn’t sound like much of a gain/loss one way or the other.
You also walk Miggy Cabrera anytime he has a chance to beat you. Not just because he a great hitter, but because no one else on the Tigers is going to do damage.
Has an IBB to Cabrera ever hurt the defense?
Seriously 23% of his career walks are IBBs.
But that .01 chance in win expectancy is worth (IMO) the chance to get out of with no runs allowed, on a ground ball.
Base hit and the game is over. Matt Kemp on 1B (via a IBB) doesn’t even get the chance to score, because as soon as Ethier crosses the plate, it’s lights out.
In that same situation, with a guy on 3rd, you could IBB TWO batters, because the only way you’re getting to extra innings is a couple of strikeouts, a double play, etc.
I’m reading this right, right? Ethier is on second base is the WINNING run? Kemp’s “run” on 1st doesn’t matter at all.
Not only did Freddie not call for the intentional walk, but, the catcher (a veteran) didnt recognize the need for it and call for it, or at least signal to Freddie about it. Its not all on Freddie. It also falls on the catcher too. Doesnt it?
Kemp has like a career .360 wOBA, he’s not even close to Bonds. You’d pitch to him every time.
Why would you pitch to him when walking him doesn’t effect WE and the batter behind him is significantly worse?
Fredi was right, the Braves had handled Kemp pretty well in the series, up to the point where he launched the game-winning homer. It looked like the Braves advance scouts had noticed something in Kemp’s current approach to exploit and most of the Braves’ pitchers had taken advantage. But the calculus has to change when you are dealing with a back of the bullpen guy in Martinez, who has very hittable stuff.
Fredi has made some bewildering decisions in his tenure so far.