Comments on: Mets Left Out of Bargain Shopping http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/mets-left-out-of-bargain-shopping/ Daily baseball statistical analysis and commentary Mon, 13 Feb 2012 00:21:02 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: buy hdmi cable http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/mets-left-out-of-bargain-shopping/#comment-655711 buy hdmi cable Mon, 11 Apr 2011 02:23:23 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=2756#comment-655711 That's amazing a three-year deal at $36 million. That's 12 million every year. that's the best deal .I would be so happy even if i get the 1/10 of money. Thanks for the article it has been a fun to read. That’s amazing a three-year deal at $36 million. That’s 12 million every year. that’s the best deal .I would be so happy even if i get the 1/10 of money. Thanks for the article it has been a fun to read.

]]> By: Joe R http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/mets-left-out-of-bargain-shopping/#comment-61702 Joe R Thu, 05 Feb 2009 08:31:11 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=2756#comment-61702 by that I mean $12.33 million a year. My mistake, still a bit of an overpay in my opinion, but I think everyone expected K-Rod to get an inflated deal. by that I mean $12.33 million a year.

My mistake, still a bit of an overpay in my opinion, but I think everyone expected K-Rod to get an inflated deal.

]]> By: Joe R http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/mets-left-out-of-bargain-shopping/#comment-61701 Joe R Thu, 05 Feb 2009 08:22:47 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=2756#comment-61701 Terrible signing. Then again, what do you expect from a team that just handed K-Rod a $17 mil / year contract when every forecast predicts his ERA to go up. Terrible signing. Then again, what do you expect from a team that just handed K-Rod a $17 mil / year contract when every forecast predicts his ERA to go up.

]]> By: Mike http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/mets-left-out-of-bargain-shopping/#comment-61691 Mike Thu, 05 Feb 2009 05:21:12 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=2756#comment-61691 Is this published anywhere? If so, where can I find it. Is this published anywhere? If so, where can I find it.

]]> By: acerimusdsux http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/mets-left-out-of-bargain-shopping/#comment-61609 acerimusdsux Wed, 04 Feb 2009 12:37:17 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=2756#comment-61609 That has probably been updated to put him on the Mets. The fangraphs projection is probably supposed to be team neutral. That has probably been updated to put him on the Mets.
The fangraphs projection is probably supposed to be team neutral.

]]> By: Sam http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/mets-left-out-of-bargain-shopping/#comment-61597 Sam Wed, 04 Feb 2009 06:39:23 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=2756#comment-61597 Why doesn't his CHONE projection at fangraphs match this one: http://www.baseballprojection.com/perezol3386.htm ? Why doesn’t his CHONE projection at fangraphs match this one:
http://www.baseballprojection.com/perezol3386.htm ?

]]> By: acerimusdux http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/mets-left-out-of-bargain-shopping/#comment-61590 acerimusdux Wed, 04 Feb 2009 03:09:34 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=2756#comment-61590 Well, even using *tRA I figure him right at 4 wins over the last 2, so still 2 per season. Given his upside, that you're getting him for his age 27-29 seasons, I think it would have been a decent signing had it been at $10M/yr. I think he's clearly a cut above Wolf. All else equal, yeah you certainly pay more for the guy with stuff and upside, for his prime years, who really only has to be more consistent with his mechanics. And I think he will average about 2.5 wins over the next 3 seasons, but I think the Mets overpaid for that. Well, even using *tRA I figure him right at 4 wins over the last 2, so still 2 per season.

Given his upside, that you’re getting him for his age 27-29 seasons, I think it would have been a decent signing had it been at $10M/yr. I think he’s clearly a cut above Wolf.

All else equal, yeah you certainly pay more for the guy with stuff and upside, for his prime years, who really only has to be more consistent with his mechanics.

And I think he will average about 2.5 wins over the next 3 seasons, but I think the Mets overpaid for that.

]]> By: Matthew Carruth http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/mets-left-out-of-bargain-shopping/#comment-61581 Matthew Carruth Wed, 04 Feb 2009 00:33:04 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=2756#comment-61581 Both of those are cherry-picking. Last 2 years avoids his dreadful 2006 and his career includes his flukey 2004. Furthermore, tRA is inferior to tRA* for projections. The WAR's are based off tRA because they are the better reflection of how the pitcher performed that season, but since it doesn't attempt to correct anything like HR/FB rate, it's limited as a projection tool. Both of those are cherry-picking. Last 2 years avoids his dreadful 2006 and his career includes his flukey 2004.

Furthermore, tRA is inferior to tRA* for projections. The WAR’s are based off tRA because they are the better reflection of how the pitcher performed that season, but since it doesn’t attempt to correct anything like HR/FB rate, it’s limited as a projection tool.

]]> By: acerimusdux http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/mets-left-out-of-bargain-shopping/#comment-61577 acerimusdux Wed, 04 Feb 2009 00:10:34 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=2756#comment-61577 Thanks. And, note...it's also 2.65 wins a season over the last two. I don't think the Mets are worried about what he did in Pittsburgh as a 24 year old. He was a 3.6 win player in 2007, and a 1.7 win player last season per tRA. You could also look at it as 11.9 wins in 175 career games, which would come to about 2.3 in 34 starts. I don't think it's that far fetched that he'll settle in as near a 3 win player for a few seasons here at his peak. We are talking about a 26 year old lefty who sits around 91 mph with the FB and mixes in a nasty slider. That said, I still think in this market he should have been paid for more like 2.5 wins at about $4M a win, or about $10M/yr. Thanks.

And, note…it’s also 2.65 wins a season over the last two.

I don’t think the Mets are worried about what he did in Pittsburgh as a 24 year old. He was a 3.6 win player in 2007, and a 1.7 win player last season per tRA. You could also look at it as 11.9 wins in 175 career games, which would come to about 2.3 in 34 starts.

I don’t think it’s that far fetched that he’ll settle in as near a 3 win player for a few seasons here at his peak. We are talking about a 26 year old lefty who sits around 91 mph with the FB and mixes in a nasty slider.

That said, I still think in this market he should have been paid for more like 2.5 wins at about $4M a win, or about $10M/yr.

]]> By: nymets8 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/mets-left-out-of-bargain-shopping/#comment-61574 nymets8 Tue, 03 Feb 2009 23:19:40 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=2756#comment-61574 I am not too excited about this up coming season. Oliver Perez was consistenly bad last year. These are his numbers from 6 September starts in 2008: 33 Innings, 33 Hits Allowed, 21 Walks, 34 Strikeouts, 21 Earned runs. That is an ERA of 6.36 and a WHIP of 1.64 Just awesome. 54 baserunners in 33 innings. Imagine if he had an ERA of just 5.00 in September, maybe he could have received a 5 year deal. Just a joke. I am sad today to say I am a Mets season ticket holder. Also, if we think Tim Redding is the answer….here are his September #’s: 24 Innings, 26 Hits, 12 Walks, 20 earned runs. Nice, 8.33 ERA. If the Nationals do not want you, there is a reason. I would beat Omar in baseball roto every year. He has no clue about pitching. They should hire the Twins scouts. That is where their money should be going. Those guys make $100k. Offer them $200k to leave. I am sick. John Maine’s health is a question mark and Pelfrey pitched more innings last year then the 2 previously combined. And as far as the “revamped” bullen is concerned. I would agree that it is improved if Wagner were still pitching. K-Rod replaces Wagner, he is not an addition, he is a replacement. We trade Joe Smith, who was actually better then Putz last year. Heilman had a brutal year last year, but the guy replacing him, Sean Green is horrible. Horrible. He will be sent to minors by mid May. I am not too excited about this up coming season. Oliver Perez was consistenly bad last year.

These are his numbers from 6 September starts in 2008: 33 Innings, 33 Hits Allowed, 21 Walks, 34 Strikeouts, 21 Earned runs. That is an ERA of 6.36 and a WHIP of 1.64 Just awesome. 54 baserunners in 33 innings. Imagine if he had an ERA of just 5.00 in September, maybe he could have received a 5 year deal. Just a joke. I am sad today to say I am a Mets season ticket holder.

Also, if we think Tim Redding is the answer….here are his September #’s: 24 Innings, 26 Hits, 12 Walks, 20 earned runs. Nice, 8.33 ERA. If the Nationals do not want you, there is a reason. I would beat Omar in baseball roto every year. He has no clue about pitching. They should hire the Twins scouts. That is where their money should be going. Those guys make $100k. Offer them $200k to leave. I am sick.

John Maine’s health is a question mark and Pelfrey pitched more innings last year then the 2 previously combined.

And as far as the “revamped” bullen is concerned. I would agree that it is improved if Wagner were still pitching. K-Rod replaces Wagner, he is not an addition, he is a replacement. We trade Joe Smith, who was actually better then Putz last year. Heilman had a brutal year last year, but the guy replacing him, Sean Green is horrible. Horrible. He will be sent to minors by mid May.

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