Comments on: Miguel Cabrera Strikes Back

By: scotsw

scotsw — Mon, 22 Jun 2009 13:32:49 +0000

BIP says:

“Regarding Holliday, looking at home/road stats is a terrible way to evaluate a hitter’s potential performance in a new ballpark. Epic fail. ”

Except that in Holliday’s case, “home” was the quite exceptional Coors Field. If he rakes in Coors, but nowhere else, you have to ask why.

By: scotsw

scotsw — Mon, 22 Jun 2009 13:28:32 +0000

Clarification: I’m talking about 2008, of course. Incidentally, the club called it a “quadriceps” injury, but it sure looked like “groin”.

By: scotsw

scotsw — Mon, 22 Jun 2009 13:27:10 +0000

Adjustment period, maybe. But Cabrera was limping through April and May last year on a gimpy leg. He didn’t move very well at all until the All-Star break. It’s hard to see all this on TV, but I had a 27-game package, and it was really interesting to watch him jog back to the dugout or even warm up between innings. You could see the evidence of it in plain sight. But he fought through it like a pro. This is often forgotten, and people look at the numbers and just think “slump”.

By: beejeez

beejeez — Sun, 21 Jun 2009 12:49:47 +0000

I wonder if that homer-distance stat means much. It takes a longer homer to go out at CoPa anyway, so why wouldn’t Tigers almost automatically be overrepresented among the league’s longest-homer stats? Not to say Cabrera doesn’t belt the bejeezus out of the ball, mind you.

By: BIP

BIP — Fri, 19 Jun 2009 11:17:07 +0000

Um, he has a lot more than “nothing” to back up his statements. Since interleague play began in 1997, up until 2008, the AL has a 1536-1420 in interleague games (with only 5 AL teams below .500 in interleague play during this span), 11-0-1 in All-Star Games, and 7-5 in World Series with a staggering 38-23 game record. Seems pretty obvious the AL is superior.

Also, the utility man argument is just one side of the coin, since AL teams lose one of their best hitters when playing in NL parks.

Regarding Holliday, looking at home/road stats is a terrible way to evaluate a hitter’s potential performance in a new ballpark. Epic fail. Also, he’s not really a fastball hitter since he has better career weighted values against sliders and changeups. Besides, a 3% decrease is quite insignificant–you’re talking about something like 18-25 plate appearances worth of pitches over a full season. Yawn.

Ibanez isn’t really helpful to your argument (if you even have one) either, since Safeco is actually somewhat favorable to left-handed hitters. Sure, he’d still get a little bit of a bump moving to Citizens Bank, but not nearly as much as he’s apparently gotten from facing weaker competition.

By: Alireza

Alireza — Thu, 18 Jun 2009 19:27:16 +0000

And you have nothing to actually back that up. If anything, the reason the NL typically suffers in interleague is because they end up with a utility man in the DH spot or in the field for a DHing regular in the AL park.

As for the comparisons you use, they aren’t good ones. Holliday was a product of Coors and everyone knew it, except perhaps Billy Beane, looking at his home/road stats. That he only hit 25 HRs last year at Coors had to be a warning sign, especially considering he was moving to one of the most notorious pitcher’s parks in baseball. Remember too that Holliday is a fastball hitter and he went to a league where fewer fastballs are thrown and saw a 3% drop, not an insignificant number.

Ibanez was the reverse. He went from one of the biggest pitcher’s parks to one of the best hitter’s parks, especially for left-handed hitters.

By: JimRI

JimRI — Thu, 18 Jun 2009 18:23:11 +0000

Al->NL thing isn’t universal, although there seem to be a fair number of cases. Manny Ramiriz would be a stunning example of the opposite effect, although Jason Bay didn’t seem to be affected at all. Texeira was another one it didn’t seem to bother, although he had just came from the AL. The effect seems to be there, but it’s not universal.

By: diderot

diderot — Thu, 18 Jun 2009 17:08:58 +0000

Absolutely correct. American League pitching is much better, so the adjustment factor is apparent for those coming from the National League (also see Holiday), and creates a cake walk for most of those moving in the other direction (see Raul Ibanez).
There’s a reason the National League typically suffers in interleague, the All Star game and the World Series.

By: Dave Dombrowski

Dave Dombrowski — Thu, 18 Jun 2009 15:57:52 +0000

Yes, I did… that’s why I gave him a fat contract extension before he ever threw a pitch in Detroit.

By: Steve C

Steve C — Thu, 18 Jun 2009 13:23:03 +0000

This only seems anecdotal in my head and I’m sure someone smarter than I could put numbers to this either prove or disprove it.

It seems like players moving from the NL to the AL have an adjustment period where they perform below their projected levels while adjusting to their new environment.