Milton Bradley Not Playing Games
Without checking, can you name the top five players with the highest OPS totals from the beginning of last season until right now, with at least 100 games played? On second thought, this won’t work as well as I had planned, since there is no way for me to know who you named. In that case, I’ll just list them:
Chipper Jones, 1.058
Alex Rodriguez, 1.056
Barry Bonds, 1.045
Albert Pujols, 1.028
Milton Bradley, 1.015
Yes, Milton Bradley ranks fifth behind these four surefire (in my book, at least) Hall of Fame players with regards to offensive production via OPS. Bradley and his 2.16 WPA currently ranks third in the AL behind only Manny Ramirez and teammate Josh Hamilton. Additionally, he has a 2.81 WPA/LI that leads the league and an equal 2.81 REW that ranks second behind Hamilton’s 2.83.
In 64 games this season he has a .332/.452/.627 slash line—good for an OPS of 1.079—as well as a .295 ISO and .384 BABIP. Astonishingly, each component of that slash line ranks atop the American League leaderboard. His .332 BA is tied with Alex Rodriguez, and his OBP/SLG come in ahead of everyone else in his league.
When the Padres acquired him last season Bradley provided a spark and energy that came close to propelling the team into the playoffs. If not for a freak injury suffered at the hands of his manager, they might have played into October. Here are Bradley’s 2008 numbers stacked up next to his 2007 numbers with the Padres:
2007 w/SDP: 42 GP, 45-144, 11 HR, 30 RBI, 23 BB, 27 K, .313/.414/.590
2008 w/Tex: 64 GP, 73-220, 15 HR, 48 RBI, 47 BB, 54 K, .332/.452/.627
All told, since July 8th, 2007, Bradley has a .324/.439/.613 line in 106 games, complete with 26 HR, 78 RBI, and a 1.052 OPS. The guy may have some personality issues and he may have struggled to find a “home” throughout his career thus far, but this guy can flat out rake.
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Which line do you think is more impressive, 2007 or 2008? 2008 has a huge OBP advantage, comes in the AL, and is a larger sample. But the difference between hitting in Texas and hitting in PETCO is huge.
Yeah, it’s a really interesting question. By my count, of his XBH last year, at PETCO, he had 2 doubles, 1 triple, 6 home runs. So, away from PETCO he had 3 doubles and 5 home runs. I think that his overall numbers this year are more impressive but that it’s a more impressive feat to post his 2007 numbers in a park like PETCO.
He’s been very good this year but check out his Home/Road splits….
H: .390 BA, .504 OBP, .830 SLG, 1.334 OPS, .403 BABIP
R: .283 BA, .409 OBP, .458 SLG, .868 OPS, .360 BABIP
He’s still been good on the road, but it’s nothing compared to his Ruthian numbers at home.
Well, aside from being an extremely small sample size, those home splits have nothing to do with the park. Looking at Hit Tracker Online (<a href=”http://hittrackeronline.com/detail.php?id=2008_1653&type=hitter”), all of those homers at Arlington were legitimate shots spread all over the yard. Yeah, one was 354 and another 366, but the other ten measured 380+ feet in distance with five of those traveling in excess of 400 feet. No cheapies over the short porches like Nate McLouth. Those six between 65° and 105° were all at Arlington and all to the deepest parts of the yard.
As an aside, is Arlington even a home run park? I don’t get park factors. I really don’t. I just don’t understand how a park can go from a moderate pitcher’s park to the most extreme hitter’s park outside of Denver and back to neutral all in the span of fifteen years without any changes to its configuration. According to Baseball Prospectus, Arlington’s park factor lingers in the 0.97 range in the early nineties, climbs steadily to 1.04 by the turn of the century, holds for a few, inexplicably spikes to 1.07, then just as inexplicably plummets to 1.00 in 2007. Either way.
Nathan, thanks for posting the Hit Tracker info. It’s an amazing resource. I know Pizza Cutter has been working on a post about park factors for quite some time so that could potentially shed some light, but yeah I agree it can be tricky to grasp.
I fully expect random fluctuations and other fluky stuff to cause a stadium’s three-year park factor to waffle within a certain somewhat narrow range (given no alterations to the park, of which there were none in this case), but Arlington’s metamorphosis was ridiculous. From 1972 to 1994, courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com, Arlington only twice had a one-year batting park factor above 103, then bam: 106. 108. 107. 104. 110. Another 110. 112. All contained sequentially within a ten year span. Then, just as quickly as it came, it disappeared: 103, 103, 97 and 97 over the last three and a half seasons, driving its current three-year factor down to a completely neutral 100. These last three and a half years could have been a fluke, but that doesn’t explain the first 23.
Yeah, I’ve wondered the same thing about park factors. It’s half-reliant on the home team’s lineup, and if the home team isn’t sporting that great of a lineup — say, this year’s San Diego Padres — the park factor is going to reflect that. Similarly, if a team puts out a great lineup — like the Phillies — the park factor is going to balloon as a result.
I assume there is some way to find out what a park factor would be in a specific stadium with a league-average lineup. I’m not the math whiz Pizza Cutter is — though I’m trying, as he recommended some literature for me — but it seems like it’s possible to hypothetically put a league-average offense in Citizens Bank Park or PETCO and estimate the expected runs or home runs.
As to the topic, is there a reason why Bradley hasn’t had 400+ AB in a season besides 2004? Is he very injury-prone? I know he had that freak injury arguing with an umpire, but I don’t remember why he missed so many games in the other seasons. Aside from that, it’s impossible not to fear the guy when your favorite team’s pitcher is staring him down. Unfortunately, my and Eric’s Phillies will be doing that exact thing when the Phillies play the Rangers starting Friday.
Bradley’s been injury-prone, yeah, and someone said it best with regards to him in that “there’s always something with that guy.” Whatever it is he struggles to find a home or play full seasons.
But Bill, honestly, he scares me more than most other players. Maybe it’s his violent swing or his disposition at the plate, but there are always certain non-superstar guys that scare me in certain sports. Stephen Jackson in the NBA (I swear every shot looks like it’s going in), Milton Bradley in the MLB.
The rise in park factor was clearly caused by global warming since it correlated with a rise in Dallas area carbon emissions. In 2007, however, sales of the Toyota Prius jumped 70% in Northeast Texas, while styrofoam cup orders fell by 20%, resulting in the park factor slide and the disappearance of Hank Blalock.
Bill: the park factors are calculated by looking at the stats of players at home and on the road. So, even if you have Howard, Utley, Burrell, et al at home, they are also in Phillies road games.
Park factors include weather, and weather is not anywhere near as constant as the players. Look at Wrigley.
In any case, the skepticism surrounding park factors is justified. You can read more about it here:
http://tangotiger.net/parks.html
Park factors have nothing to do with how good a team is at hitting. Its the team’s stats on the road versus at home, for the most part. So Yankee Stadium in 1927 could have a park factor of less than 100 if the Yankees hit better on the road in that period.
Tango and Dan, thanks for the clarification.
Tango, I’ll check out your article.