Milwaukee Chooses Peterson
World-renowned pitching coach/guru Rick Peterson, after a hiatus, is back in baseball as the Brewers new pitching coach. He’s got some serious work to do, as the Brewers pitching staff ranked second worst amongst all 30 teams in FIP and actually finished with an identical ERA and FIP of 4.84.
The rotation pitched horrendously with the exception of Yovani Gallardo, who posted the sole starting FIP sub-4. Manny Parra and David Bush were the only other two under 5.00, and free agent additions Braden Looper and Jeff Suppan had FIP of 5.70 and 5.74 respectively with ERAs over 5.00 as well. Looper made more than 30 starts, which means his 2010 option is now worth $6.5M instead of $6M and his buyout increases from $750K to $1M. It’s hard to see Milwaukee picking that option up given the potential grabs on the free agency market.
Trades could also be an avenue of injecting pitching talent. Shortstop J.J. Hardy could probably fetch someone who effectively becomes the Brewers second best starter. If the Brew Crew feel like placing Prince Fielder on the market, one would think they could land a legitimate equal to Gallardo. Maybe the good news is that almost any addition is effectively an upgrade given just how putrid the starters were.
The bad news is that Suppan is still due $12.5M and has a buyout after the season. Is there even another challenger to what Doug Melvin’s worst move is? Suppan’s strong post-season duped the then-uprising Brewers into inking him for veteran presence, playoff experience, and all the other terms that sounds good at a press conference but don’t quite translate to wins and losses – okay, they do translate to losses when you throw over 300 innings of replacement level ball while making over $20M.
Not as much work needs to be done with the bullpen, which had a FIP and ERA on level with the Yankees and Mariners. That’s middle of the road to slightly on the curb, but comparing that to the monstrosity known as the rotation is like comparing a grasshopper to Godzilla.
As for Peterson himself, he wasn’t entirely out of baseball last year, as he tried to fix Scott Kazmir mid-season and seemingly did a decent job at it. He’s one of the forefront supporters of advanced and rigorous physical testing of pitchers, and for that reason alone Milwaukee should welcome him with wide arms. Maybe it’s just a coincidence, but go back and read Derek Zumsteg’s excellent series on pitching prospects and attrition for a reminder of just how good the Athletics were at preventing arm injuries during some of Peterson’s time there.
Peterson also seems to know a little bit about how pitching works. As demonstrated in multiple interviews, he doesn’t pound the “first-pitch strike” philosophy; instead he focuses on winning the first three pitches. He knows the value of the swinging strike and groundball, and he doesn’t seem to carry a notebook of clichés and labels for each of his pitchers.
Milwaukee made a sound hire; now it’s time to get the man some talent to work with.
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RJ,
In your opinion would the Brewers take Buccholz and say a little ways away player with high upside like Kalish for Fielder? I think Clay will be a 4.5 WAR pitcher who is still affordable for awhile and Prince is getting pricey. Is this enough or am I way off?
you’re way off.
Am I?
Fielder is not signing an extension. I have heard Cain but he is about to get very expensive. Clay provides number one upside and he is still very affordable for 4 or so seasons. Further more Kalish has really come back on strong and could be the CF they need and he may contribute late next season. Who else out there would provide a better package coming back?
The Brewers, rightly or wrongly, would have to be blown away to trade Fielder; they may not receive a better offer than you mentioned, but they’re in no hurry to trade him.
Well, the Brewers offered Sabathia $20M/year and have also paid Sheets 8 figures in the past. Why is it a given that they can’t extend him for a few years? buy out the last of his arb years and try to get a year or two of free agency?
Prince Fielder is an established superstar who is all of THREE MONTHS older than Clay Buccholz, who is, believe it or not, still a bit of a question mark.
Kalish is a prospect, nothing more. He’s not a bad prospect, but he’s no where close to a sure thing.
+Bowden/Tazawa
+Kelly
+Lottery tickets
It’s Prince Fielder…
seriously, a 25 year old coming off a 6.7 WAR season.
that’s worth one good prospect and a bucket of crap.
newsflash: Bowden is overrated.
Given what Prince will make, I’d jump at that trade. $11M in 2010 and then last year of arb eligibility in 2012. Probably looking at $15Mish. That’s $26M for two seasons of, say, 4.5 WAR each, or $25M over rep salary for 9 WAR. Good deal, not great.
Buchholz has four years of team control left. Let’s say he’s only league-average, at 2 WAR (160 IP in the mid to high 4.00′s FIP-wise). That’s 8 WAR at a cost of free, $2M, $4M, $6M, or $12M One less win for half the cost of Prince? Yes, please! And I think that’s underestimating Buchholze by a fair amount.
Again, it’s not just ability that matter to a team, but the price of that ability.
http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=tz8qHiYrIzlFtVnly7gibjw&output=html
It will be interesting to see what the Brewers could get for Fielder. the amazing part is that after the season he had, his salary due is going to diminish any potential surplus value he might add when it comes to a trade.
The Brewers will be very shocked to find out the market for Fielder is not as good as what they had hoped (and Brewer fans will have tons of cold water splashed on their faces).
I think the best route for the Brewers is to trade him before July 31 next year, for one nice prospect and 3 or so mid level A ball prospects with a lot of upside. Whatever they do its going to be a lose lose for the team in the short term.
You know who the Brewers need? Carlos Silva. We won’t be like greedy Red Sox fans and ask for Prince. Hell, we’ll even pay a chunk (ha! Silva joke there) of his salary to make this happen. All we ask for are several thousand of those delicious brats to give away on ‘Carlos Silva “Appreciation” Night’.
Think about it.
haha you made a fat joke in an article about Prince Fielder, but it was directed at Matt Garza? Not an easy thing to do — I salute you, sir.
in related news, the Brewers just signed Victor Zambrano. check back in 10 minutes.
I know all you Brewers fans think it’s irresponsible to trade Prince Fielder for Victor Zambrano, but I have a 10 minute fix that will unload all of Victor’s potential this year. You’ll see.
As a Mets fan, the saddest part of the Wille Randolph firing was that the enjoyment I should have been feeling was completely dashed by the news that the Mets were also firing Peterson. I remember when we first got him as a pitching coach I told my pops that he was our best free agent acquisition. Very good move by Milwaukee, too bad the lack of pitching talent and money to lock in Prince means their odds of making the playoffs are slim.
Maybe I just don’t understand exactly how WAR works for pitchers (I really don’t), but I was wondering exactly how Buchholz was worth 1.2 WAR this year in 92 innings of 4.69 FIP pitching, while Yovani Gallardo was worth just 2.7 WAR in 185.2 innings with a 3.97 FIP.
He worked twice as much as Clay, so with similar FIPs, he should have 2.4 WAR. That would mean that a FIP differential of 0.72 runs is worth only 0.3 WAR over 185 innings. Doesn’t make sense to me.
Anyone care to explain?
Guessing it’s the difference in league quality, as Buch didn’t get to pitch against other pitchers. Toss in a half run FIP adjustment for the DH, and you’re now talking a FIP difference of 4.50 to 4.70 instead of 4.00 to 4.70.
Not only that, but you cant just look at one variable and try to figure out why one players WAR is different than another players WAR on a relative basis. Its not just FIP.
peterson is a great pitching coach. he gets a bad rap because he’s actually intelligent, thoughtful, and not a jock.
great move for the brewers.
Is there somewhere I can get more insight on why Peterson was fired in the first place?
Looking at Victor Zambrano’s performance with the Mets, coupled with Kazmir’s ascent in Tampa, should be the first place you look.
Yes.
HELP MEEEEEE
Thanks for the support on the decision, R.J. I think it was a sound move for the club and it tickled my mustache quite greatly.
I would like to work more closely with Rick, please.
Hey, I tried… allegedly. I offered the A’s a better package than the Cubs did for you but it was after the Cubs’ deal already went through… allegedly.
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