MLB Trade Value ’08: #1 – #5
Continuing on in the week long series on the 50 most valuable assets in major league baseball. If you missed the introduction, it can be found here.
Ranking, Player, Position, Franchise, 2006-2008 WPA/LI
5. Albert Pujols, 1B, St. Louis, 13.79 WPA/LI
4. David Wright, 3B, New York Mets, 9.05 WPA/LI
3. Grady Sizemore, CF, Cleveland, 8.47 WPA/LI
2. Hanley Ramirez, SS, Florida, 7.11 WPA/LI
1. Evan Longoria, 3B, Tampa Bay, 0.80 WPA/LI
Pujols is the perfect hitter. Among active players, he has the highest career batting average, second highest career on base percentage (only Coors-aided Todd Helton is higher), and highest career slugging percentage. There is literally no one in the game that can compare to his abilities with a bat in his hands. He has remarkable bat control, a great approach, and terrific power. And, just for good measure, he’s made himself an outstanding defensive first baseman – perhaps the best in the league. Even at $16 million a year through 2011, he’s still a ridiculous bargain for the level of play he provides. Only the nagging injuries that have kept him out of the line-up too frequently keep him from being further up this list, but make no mistake, we will all tell our grandchildren that we got to watch the great Pujols play.
When you have a 25-year-old third baseman who hits like Mike Schmidt, you sign him up for as long as you possibly can and do a happy dance. That’s what the Mets did with Wright, inking him to a deal that will keep him in Queens through 2013. Wright’s a very good hitter, and there’s still room for power growth that could allow him to make the leap to great hitter. His defense at third has improved quite a bit, and the offense he provides from the hot corner at a young age makes him a legitimate star.
Still just 25-years-old, Sizemore has added legitimate home run power to his repertoire this year, as he’s just two home runs away from matching his 2007 season total before this year’s all-star break. The power surge, combined with a slight decrease in strikeout rate, shows the maturation of a player just entering his prime. He has a legitimate chance to go 40-40 this year, and oh yea, he plays a pretty good center field as well. He will never be the premier player in the game at any one particular skill, but his excellence at everything makes him a superstar. While it’s been a disappointing year in Cleveland, the Indians’ fans have to be happy that they have this kid under contract for the next four years for a total of $26 million. He’s the building block around which a great franchise can be established, and the production he gives his team for what their paying him makes him one of the game’s truly great assets.
I expect there to be a minor outrage that Ramirez isn’t #1 on this list, and when the assumption that you’re the second most valuable asset in the game is controversial, you know you’re pretty special. Ramirez’s bat has developed far faster than anyone could have expected, and he’s turned into one of the premier power/speed guys we’ve seen in the last fifty years. In the history of baseball, only 13 players have posted an Isolated Slugging Percentage of .200 or higher in the same year that they stole 50+ bases. Here is that list. Look at the names on there – Cobb, Henderson, Morgan, Bonds – and you’ll see just how impressive Ramirez’s combination of skills are. And just in case the offense isn’t impressive enough, he plays shortstop. Sort of. Because as great of a hitter as he is, Ramirez isn’t really much defensively, and realistically, he should probably be in center field. While he has the physical tools to handle shortstop, the instincts and reactions just aren’t there, and his skills would be maximized in the outfield, where his raw speed would allow him to make up for the first step that he doesn’t have. While it takes away some of the value of his bat, it certainly doesn’t diminish Ramirez’s value much – he’s still a franchise player and a great, great talent.
And now, for the most valuable asset in major league baseball – Evan Longoria.
Yes, I know, he only has a half season of major league experience, and we have to be careful drawing too many conclusions from sample sizes that don’t include more than 300 major league at-bats. However, the value of his abilities is so great, and his contract is so ridiculously awesome for Tampa, that the positives more than outweigh the negatives and make him the guy I wouldn’t trade for any other one player in the game.
He’s just 22 years old, but he already is showing legitimate middle of the order power, posting a .256 ISO thanks to 39 of his 79 hits going for extra bases. When you have a kid who can drive the ball like Longoria can at a young age, you have a special hitter in the making. The power is simply a pleasant surprise, however, as Longoria is a legitimate all around hitter who has a good approach at the plate and can hit to all fields. We’re not looking at an Adam Dunn type of slugger, but rather a complete hitter who can also turn on a fastball and put it in the seats. Meanwhile, his defense is nearly as good as his offense, as he’s already one of the game’s best defensive third baseman. He has enough range that it wouldn’t be a stretch for him to play shortstop, and the Rays have already acknowledged this ability by putting him there earlier this year. His hands and footwork are top notch, and his abilities with the glove are reminiscent of a younger Scott Rolen. While he’s going to be a terrific hitter, he’s also going to toss in top shelf defense as well. You just don’t find 22-year-olds who are this good at both aspects of the game this soon.
On ability, he’s terrific, but it’s really the contract that he just signed that puts him over the top. Tampa wisely saw a star in the making and decided to strike early, locking him up to a contract that gives them the ability to keep him around for eight more years after this one, and at salaries that are going to be laughably low by the end of this deal. He signed away the absolute prime of his career for an absolute maximum of about $50 million, and Tampa is only on the hook for a guaranteed $17.5 million through 2013. If Longoria gets hurt and regresses significantly, well, they didn’t pay him much anyway. If he turns into the perennial all-star that we should expect him to, then he might go down as the least compensated superstar in recent history.
When you have a 22-year-old who can hit, field, run, and has agreed to play for bargain salaries until he’s 31, well, you have a player you just shouldn’t trade.
2
I’m all for projecting the future and locking a guy up based on those projections, but that’s a different decision than deciding whether or not to trade that player you just locked up to what you project to be a sweetheart deal for the team for a player with a similar skillset, a similar age, and better/longer results at the highest level.
Today, I’d give up Evan Longoria for Hanley Ramirez over and over again with only a mild case of future anxiety.
But I will agree to a mild case of tossing and turning at night.
If you trade Evan Longoria for Hanley Ramirez, this is basically what you’re saying:
I would rather have six years of Ramirez for a total cost of $70 million than eight years of Longoria for a total cost of $48 million.
To give up two years of Longoria’s career, and pay an extra $22 million for the right to do it, you’d have to believe that Ramirez is way, way better than Longoria. I don’t.
I think it is just splitting hairs arguing the top 2. If Hanley could play the least bit of SS, I think he easily would have been #1 despite the ridiculous contract Longoria has.
Anyway, why no love for Holliday? I’m guessing it is because of his H/A splits.
Holliday who has one year left on his contract, and is Raul Ibanez away from Coors Field? Would he even make the top 100?
Agree 100% that Longoria is #1 choice here too.
Dave – did you purposely exclude minor leaguers? I’m not sure if by “Major League Baseball”, you mean literally only players in the majors, or just “Baseball”, if you know what I mean.
Assuming they were excluded, curious where you think a guy like Price would fall.
Fully agreed on Longoria at No. 1, Dave. That contract is fantastic, and the skillset is damn near perfect. The kid’s virtually a lock to be an All-Star and MVP candidate for the next eight years at a ridiculously cheap price.
We are just living in the Rays’ world right now.
I have been anxiously awaiting each section of the list, but I am kind of surprised that Nick Markakis isn’t on there. At the very least (complaint-wise), Markakis has the ability to put up James Loney type numbers while playing a more important defensive position (which he does pretty well). Otherwise the list looks pretty good.
It was between Loney and Markakis for #50 on the list. After I put up the #46-#50 post, I felt like I probably should have gone the other way, but it was already published, so I just lived with it. The difference between the two isn’t huge, though I agree that I’d probably rather have Markakis.
Mea culpa, O’s fans. Markakis should have been on the list. My bad.
Not that he should have been in the top 10, but Matt Kemp is not on the list? I have to assume that he definitely has more value than Loney (I don’t think it’s even close) as well as some others on the list? Was he on the bubble?
Come on Dave! Can’t you indulge us with the next 50 or so? (Of course then we would ask for the next 50)
I still don’t understand why Grady Sizemore isn’t a fan favorite, especially considering his huge value to fantasy teams. Crazy.
It can’ be understated how much defense closes the offensive gap between Hanley and Longoria. Give Hanley 5 runs for playing the tougher position. Then take away 20 runs for his poor glove at short (although it appears to be better this year). Then give Longoria, say, 10 runs for his good glove at third. That’s a 25-run edge to Longoria over a full season, enough to make him the more valuable player based on 2008 numbers.
What a contract. Sheesh. Imagine it’s January, 2014. Gas costs $7.50 a gallon and 850 square-foot apartments in NYC cost $3800 per month. Longoria just became a free agent after his six years of slavery to the Rays, coming off two MVP seasons of 140 OPS+ offense and stellar defense at third. He’s set to sign a huge free agent contract — $25MM per year? $35MM per year? Nope, he signs for three more years at $11MM per season. That’s what Carlos Silva’s earning in 2008, when gas is only $4.25 per gallon.
Excellent piece, as always, Dave.
Of all the players you listed, who is the Delmon Young of the group — a player who you think could drop off completely between now and when you re-vamp the list next year? And who were you most afraid of underrating?
And what’s your thought process when it comes to guys like a couple of my favorites, J.P. Howell and Hong Chih-Kuo — cheap players with low MLS numbers whose talent-levels perhaps outstrip their current roles as middle relievers?
Kemp’s a talented guy, but no, I don’t see him as one of the 50 most valuable players in the bigs right now. He’s got 750 career major league at-bats over the last three years and is hitting .300/.342/.471, which when combined with below average defense in a corner OF spot makes him a mediocre player right now. And that line is built on a .389 career BABIP, which just isn’t sustainable. His strikeout rate is so high that he has to be ridiculous when he makes contact, and he’s not yet. He could be a good player down the line, but like Adam Jones, Jeremy Hermida, and Alex Gordon, right now, he’s pretty much all upside. Those guys are obviously valuable, but not valuable enough to make this list.
As for the guy who has enough questions surrounding him that I could see a precipitous fall as possible, I’d probably throw out Russ Martin (the lack of power means a low BABIP sinks his value as a hitter) or Prince Fielder (if he gets an enormous contract). The guy that I think I might be short selling a bit is Ryan Zimmerman, who isn’t that much different than Longoria, skill wise.
And while I’ve been touting J.P. Howell for a few years, both he and Kuo are a long, long way from making this list. Kuo’s list of injury problems makes him a huge risk, and numbers put up by relievers need to be taken with several grains of salt – it’s just really easy to get batters out when your manager gets to bring you in against same handed hitters and you can throw at max effort for 20 pitches. I’d be happy to have either on my team, but I doubt either of them is ever one of the top 50 pieces in MLB.
Dave:
Kuo doesn’t pitch only against lefties. And does 8 Ks in 6 and 8 Ks in 5.1 mean that he is throwing at “max effort for 20 pitches”? Not saying that he should be in the Top 50, but let us get the rationale just so.
And saying that if you were the Rays GM, that you wouldn’t trade Longoria for any other player does not come remotely close to demonstrating that Longoria is the “most valuable asset”. The notion that the Rays unique circumstance means that Longoria is the “most valuable asset” in MLB is quite simply preposterous.
What use have the Mets for Evan Longoria and his contract? If I’m the Mets, I have more use for Russell Martin or Adrian Gonzalez than I do for Longoria. Try remembering a simple premise, and so, if you’re in the middle of the Pacific after your boat has capsized, an inflatable on hand for $1,000,000, which you’re good for, might be the “most valuable asset” when compared with that new Mercedes in a garage in Dusseldorf that the one other guy is peddling for a $1.
And, Dave, as good as Evan is, he is not the most valuable asset the Rays have. Their most valuable asset is a plural, and it’s called their pitching staff. Sub in 07′s pitching performance for 08 and Longoria doesn’t quite mean as much to the Rays as he does right now. Matter of fact, sub in last year’s pitching staff performance and while the Rays improve with Longoria, the improvement stops somewhere just below, at, or just above .500. Such a record would presumably affect the team’s revenue. In other words, Evan’s worth to his own team is indeed determined not only by his own performance but also by the performance of the others on the team.
And you wrote that:
“While it’s been a disappointing year in Cleveland, the Indians’ fans have to be happy that they have this kid under contract for the next four years for a total of $26 million.”
Why should an Indian fan care about 4 years for 26 million? One might care about the 4 years, but who cares what his salary is? Am I supposed to want to spend my money on the Indians because they have a good deal with Grady? It is the disappointing year that serves as cause to seek out some alternative entertainment satisfaction, and good deal with Grady or no, if they suck, they suck, and I don’t spend the same money on suck as I do on greatness.
Lastly, what will you say if the Rays’ falter? What value is there in losing? Remember, baseball is a personal services business that provides entertainment. The value of a personal services business is indeed in its reputation. With respect to this personal services business, reputation is largely decided by winning and losing. So going back to what I said above, Longoria’s value to the Rays is indeed dependent on the success or failure of the team as a whole. His value to any potential suitor is entirely dependent on the particular suitor’s own unique and specific circumstance at any given time. To pretend otherwise is folly.
As an O’s fan, I understand leaving Markakis off, but I don’t understand picking Ellsbury over Jones.
It’s a very good list, though. As all the disagreements and fanboyism show, it’s not an easy project.
Dave, excellent list and analysis. Agree 100% on Longoria. What was his agent thinking? Surely he could have at least had some more upside built into the contract, or made a few of the later option years higher.
You arguments for Longoria over Hanley in comment #2 were basically my arguments for Lincecum over Felix, though money obviously isn’t as big of a factor with the pitchers since neither is locked up long-term.
Paul:
With all due respect, your line of reasoning (I hesitate to even call it that) is monumentally flawed and utterly misguided. In fact, your argument demonstrates such a glaring inability to grasp the most fundamental aspects of “asset valuation” that part of me thinks that your post was written as a joke (if this is the case, it was a very funny joke. Bravo.) Where to begin?
Inherent to the valuation of an asset is the notion of “value” (obviously). Simplistically speakling, value is something that is determined by market forces. For the sake of this argument let’s say that the Rays have 2 exact replicas of Evan Longoria (I know, it’s hard to believe). By your logic, the existence of Evan Longoria #1 would make Evan Longoria #2 completely useless (and devoid of value) because he would be blocked by Evan Longoria #1 from reaching the Majors. Luckily, however, there is this little caveat in baseball known as trading in which one team exchanges it’s assets for another team’s assets. Therefore, Evan Longoria #2 is still just as “valuable of an asset” even though the Rays already have EL #1–the relative strength of each team and/or place in the standings is completely irrelevant in ascertaining the value of these assets (much the same way that if Bill Gates has $10 million of microsoft stock, it is still worth $10 million even though Bill Gates doesn’t actually need the extra money).
I don’t know if league adjustments were made, but if so, they would be too weak for my liking. If 7 of the top 10 and 28 of the top 50 are NLers, it is not a good sign. Markakis would be the obvious omission, and he belongs a lot higher than #50, in my opinion. Other AL candidates would include Quentin, Lester, Greinke, Marcum and Gordon.
Paul, the hostility in your post is a bit bizarre, and all of your arguments seem to indicate a lack of understanding of what this series of posts is actually about. If you follow the link at the top of the post to Dave’s introduction to the series, you’ll get a clear definition of the kind of value he’s discussing here. “Value” obviously can mean a lot of things, as you illustrated in your post, but the value being discussed here is specifically the value that each player would have to a generic MLB GM, all else being equal. Of course the actual value of a player to a specific team depends on that team’s constraints (budget, rebuilding mode vs. win-now mode, etc.), but overall it’s fair to say that certain players have more value than others due to their talent level, predicted performance, and contract status.
And regarding your comment about Cleveland, a fan should be happy about Sizemore’s contract because of what it means about the team’s future. Yes, the team is disappointing this year, but because they have a superstar locked up at a bargain salary, they have more room in their budget to go out and get the pieces they need to improve their team. So although the Indians less of a chance of making it to the playoffs this year as the Giants, the difference between a Grady Sizemore contract and a Barry Zito contract says a lot about the ability of these teams to contend in the future.
David Wright is a “very good” but not “great” hitter? I know you meant to imply growth, but he’s already a great hitter who could be better.
-He’s posting the same OPS+ as your top asset right now.
-He had a 30/30 season last year
-He had the 4th best Adjusted OPS+ in the NL last year
-He ranked 2nd last season in runs created
-He had played every inning of every game until late June this year, and since finally taking 1 game off is batting 380/458/780 with 5 HR in 13 games.
-I don’t respect the Rawlings GG award, but he did win one of those.
I can keep going, but the point is that he’s already an elite hitter in one of the better pitchers parks in baseball.
Mike,
League adjustments were made, and while I agree that the AL is significantly stronger than the NL right now, I don’t believe that has to be reflected on a list like this. The 28 NL players on this list represent the top 7% of the total talent pool in that league. It is certainly reasonable to believe that the difference in leagues is from the bottom 90%. I think we can concurrently believe that the AL is currently the stronger league and that the NL has a bit more premium young talent. These are not mutually exclusive.
Just as there are some quality AL players who didn’t make the list, I could point to the list of good NL players (Matt Cain, Brandon Phillips, Jason Bay, and Matt Holliday, among others) that didn’t make this list either.
In your top 50 trade values, you have McCann (6), Mauer (15), Martin (18), and Soto (28). I’m a little surprised there aren’t more catchers due to position scarcity. Also, when you factor in the age of the catchers or low quality of options for the high budget teams and contenders, it makes me curious what a Jesus Flores (good d, hitting well in a lousy line up, one more year before arbitration) could command on the market, say, from Boston in the offseason. Salty does not make the list after being traded (with Andrus) for rent a Teix? Wouldn’t Toronto trade McGowan for either of those guys? I’m just curious.
I could understand if you spoke of a Coors-aided SLG for Helton, but not a Coors-aided OBP. His batting eye that leads to his walks and hits isn’t really a product of Coors. That’s just picking a nit though… absolutely great article!! I really enjoyed it 50-to-1 even if I didn’t agree with every single ranking. Well done, sir!
How do I add this to my RSS reader? Sorry I’m a newbie :(
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