MLB Trade Value ‘08: #11-#50 Recap
We’re going to take a pause for the holiday weekend and finish off the top ten on Monday, but wanted to give you guys a chance to see the list up through #11 in one big post. Feel free to put your guesses for the top ten in the comments and we’ll see how well you guys do on Monday.
11 B.J. Upton, CF, Tampa
12 Josh Hamilton, CF, Texas
13 Cole Hamels, LHP, Philadelphia
14 Brandon Webb, RHP, Arizona
15 Joe Mauer, C, Minnesota
16 Justin Upton, RF, Arizona
17 Jay Bruce, RF, Cincinnati
18 Russell Martin, C, Los Angeles
19 Jose Reyes, SS, New York Mets
20 Ryan Braun, LF, Milwaukee
21 Roy Halladay, RHP, Toronto
22 Miguel Cabrera, 1B, Detroit
23 Scott Kazmir, LHP, Tampa Bay
24 Josh Beckett, RHP, Boston
25 Chad Billingsley, RHP, Los Angeles
26 Justin Verlander, RHP, Detroit
27 Dan Haren, RHP, Arizona
28 Geovany Soto, C, Chicago Cubs
29 James Shields, RHP, Tampa Bay
30 Prince Fielder, 1B, Milwaukee
31 Joba Chamberlain, RHP, New YorK Yankees
32 Clayton Kershaw, LHP, Los Angeles
33 Adrian Gonzalez, 1B, San Diego
34 Ian Kinsler, 2B, Texas
35 Lance Berkman, 1B, Houston
36 Curtis Granderson, CF, Detroit
37 Edinson Volquez, RHP, Cincinnati
38 Dan Uggla, 2B, Florida
39 John Lackey, RHP, Anaheim
40 Alex Rodriguez, 3B, New York Yankees
41 Jake Peavy, RHP, San Diego
42 Chipper Jones, 3B, Atlanta
43 Dustin McGowan, RHP, Toronto
44 Jacoby Ellsbury, CF, Boston
45 Robinson Cano, 2B, New York Yankees
46 Ryan Zimmerman, 3B, Washington
47 Carlos Zambrano, RHP, Chicago Cubs
48 Clay Buchholz, RHP, Boston
49 Johan Santana, LHP, New York Mets
50 James Loney, 1B, Los Angeles
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My Best Guess at the top 10: (not in any order)
Wright
Hanley
Felix
Pujols
Sizemore
Longoria
Lincecum
Sizemore
Utley
Unsure of #10- But I’m not seeing Crawford or Markakis on this list, so maybe one of them?
Where’s Adam Eaton?
I’ll guess:
1. Pujols
2. Wright
3. HanRam
4. Felix
5. Lincecum
6. Sizemore
7. Longoria
8. Utley
9. McCann
10. Markakis
I think Dave loves McCann; I wouldn’t put him that high but he’s definitely top 50. Matt Cain (and not Rollins or Howard) is the guy I wouldn’t be too surprised to make it.
1 Hanley
2 Wright
3 Longoria
4 McCann
5 Sizemore
6 Felix
7 Lincecum
8 Greinke
9 Utley
10 Pujols
But where’s Nate McLouth?
Wither Anthony Reyes?
/obscure FJM joke
1 Hanley
2 Wright
3 Sizemore
4 Lincecum (altho Sabean probably views him as trade bait)
5 Utley
6 Markakis
7 Longoria
8 Pujols
9 Cano
10 Morrow
Oops didn’t notice Cano at first at #45, oh well.
It seems like you are weighing 2008 a little too heavily for my liking. Therefore, I wouldn’t be surprised if you didn’t have him on the list, but he definitely deserves to be at the top: Fausto Carmona. He is young and has a relatively inexpensive contract through up to 2014. He’s probably not as good as he was last year but he is still very good.
Hernandez
Wright
Utley
Lincecum
Longoria
Hanley
McCann
Markakis
Sizemore
Rollins
I’d be a bit surprised not to see Matt Kemp anywhere on this list, though top 10 seems a bit extreme.
Hanley Ramirez-25
David Wright-26
Grady Sizemore-26
Evan Longoria-23
Felix Hernandez-22
Tim Lincecum-24
Brian McCann-24
Chase Utley-30
Albert Pujols-28
Rich Harden-27
Markakis was already mentioned as a possibility for #50, but Dave just dropped him from the list.
Carmona’s a tough one. I’m not convinced his one-trick power-sinker approach can hold up over time, but I’d still rather have him than a few of the pitchers toward the end of the list.
Weird to see so many people stumping for Markakis. He’s a good young player, but a lot closer to James Loney — or others who aren’t on the list, like Corey Hart or Carlos Quentin — than to Wright or Ramirez.
I’m surprised Lester is not up there.
Pujols
Utley
Hanley
Felix
Lincecum
Sizemore
McCann
Wright
Longoria…
These seem to be the consensus nine. And as to the tenth, I just can’t see it being Carmona, who can’t find the strike zone or punch guys out with regularity, although he does have a contract that any GM would drool over. And Greinke seems like he should make the top 50, but top ten? Harden would be here if he could stay healthy, but he can’t. Rollins is fairly cheap, but 29 years old. Crawford isn’t locked up long term. And I’m pretty sure Dave thinks Crawford and Rollins are a bit overrated. Ervin Santana won’t be a free agent until 2012, and Dave likes him, but top ten?
And so I’ll go with Stephen Strasburg. Yup.
1. Wright
2. Longoria
3. Hanley
4. Tulo
5. Lincecum
6. Utley
7. Pujols
8. Felix
9. Sizemore
10. McCann
If I have this right, I’m surprised there’s no Matt Cain on the list.
Hmm… Haven’t paid attention to this year much, looks lilke Tulo is a bit silly there. So I’m guessing Matt Cain is in.
Yeah, I don’t see Tulo in the Top 10. Sure he’s a great defensive player, but how good can he really be offensively? Also, Cain does seem like a possibility for the #10 spot.
And Harden is far too risky
I’m calling it…. Dave is going to make a case for Beltre to be in the top 10
Pujols
Grady
Wright
Hanley (think he’ll end up in OF)
Utley
McCann
Longoria
Felix
Lincecum
Tulo
Surprised there’s no Beltran. Arguably best defensive CF, plus a great hitter. Maybe his age/contract push him down some but outside the top 50 completely?
where is your prized ERICA BEDARD? lol, GO O’s!!!!
10. Brian McCann
09. Nick Markakis
08. Grady Sizemore
07. David Wright
06. Chase Utley
05. Evan Longoria
04. Albert Pujols
03. Felix Hernandez
02. Tim Lincecum
01. Hanley Ramirez
That’s the last ten I would put in, trying to balance from the guys I think you will consider. I might have missed it, but I’m a little surprise to not see guys like Brandon Phillips and Phil Hughes anywhere on here, as I’d have a hard tim putting them in the top ten, but certainly no sweat including them in the top 50.
Great list. Looking forward to the finale.
What about Ryan Ludwick? Making under a 1/2 mil and posting a .940 Ops? Is it that he is 29 and in his fifth year holding him back?
And probably his shoddy D.
1. Felix Hernandez (#1 Because I quote Dave’s early season series preview on Ducksnorts, “In raw talent, he’s the best pitcher alive, and it’s not very close.”)
2. Hanley Ramirez
3. Tim Lincecum
4. Evan Longoria
5. Grady Sizemore
6. David Wright
7. Albert Pujols
8. Brian McCann
9. Matt Cain
10. Chase Utley
Fun list, i look forward to seeing the top 10. Go M’s.
10). Brian McCann
9). Matt Cain
8). Chase Utley
7). Evan Longoria
6). David Wright
5). Albert Pujols
4). Tim Lincecum
3). Grady Sizemore
2). King Felix
1). Ichiro! (kidding… Hanley Ramirez)
1. Wright
2. Hanley
3. Pujols
4. Felix
5. Lincecum
6. Longoria
7. Sizemore
8. McCann
9. Utley
10. Cain
I agree that the Top 9 are fairly obvious – I’d be surprised if they weren’t present in some order. Alex Gordon is my sleeper pick, as he’s only 24 and not too long ago projected as one hell of a third baseman – I think he’ll suffer, however, from the same fate as Zimmerman: not enough actual production to backup the talent. Holliday, Sabathia, Howard, Rollins, and Crawford are other options, but as people have already mentioned, age, contract status, and perceived vs. actual performance level deplete their value. Chris Young, OF, also crossed my mind, but I’d rather have everyone else mentioned, so he’s really not an option. One last thing: Wright and Hanley currently have the most value in baseball, but if Pujols didn’t have minor-injury bug, I’d take him first overall; I think we’re looking at a top 10, maybe top 5, all time hitter – if healthy.
I wouldn’t do Morrow for Loney at #50 but I don’t expect Morrow to be in the Top 10. Granderson seems a little overvalued here.
I can tell you from being an avid reader of Dave’s at USSMariner, Felix will not be #1. There is no bigger fan of Felix than Dave. But he’s made the point several times that all else being equal a position player is more valuable than a pitcher. The combined influence of hitting and defense makes a top-notch position player more valuable than a top-notch pitcher. Throw in the higher injury risk for pitchers, and there’s no way Felix will be #1.
Probably #5, with Hanley, Utley, Wright, and Sizemore ahead of him.
Utley ain’t a spring chicken. Can’t see him in the top five.
USSM were also all over Ellsbury prior to the season calling him overrated and now they’re forced to throw him at #44 ahead of Buchholz. HAHA
Matt Cain > McGowan
Why is McGowan so hyped among the internet community anyways.
Most of the country hates Boston…..because….. Boston fans are mostly hatta’s….
The consensus nine that you guys have all agreed upon are indeed nine of the final ten, though no one has gotten the order yet. Been interesting to read all the takes on who the tenth guy should be.
For #10, I’l admit that I’m biased for the Rays here, but I’m impressed by Dioner Navarro’s improvement over the last 100 games. Plus, he’s 24 and makes $400K.
I might as well go for broke and throw Matt Garza and J. P. Howell out there as well, ages 24 & 25, and both making around $400K as well. Garza is finally coming around, and Howell has done a complete turnaround as a middle relief guy this year.
#10- Jr…. ??????
Upon reflection, the tenth player has to be Jimmy Rollins. He may be “overrated,” but he’s still the second-best shortstop in the game (third-best at the very outside). He’s not yet thirty, he stays healthy, he has a rep as a gamer and a team player, and he has a cheap contract — he’s getting almost exactly the same money as Jose Reyes for the next three and a half years.
As for the young pitchers, there just isn’t much to separate Cain, Greinke, Lester, Garza, et al., and they’re clearly behind some pitchers already listed, like Billingsley and Volquez.
I’ll throw my weight behind Troy Tulowitzki. As a rookie he was just as valuable as Hanley Ramirez (hello, fielding) and is still under team control for four years.
Not sure why people are in love with Matt Cain — his FIP has been between 3.78 and 4.08 every year in the majors — good, but not great. His home ballpark protects his flyball tendencies — his ERA would likely be half a run higher elsewhere. His strikeout rate is great, but his K/BB rate is mediocre thanks to a BB/9 rate approaching 4. Maybe he deserves to make the top fifty, but definitely not top ten.
As for McGowan, scouts, umpires, and other players are in love with his stuff. While I put only small credit in that, his numbers stack up to Cain quite well. Similar K/BB ratio (although with fewer of each), but a much higher GB%, which bodes better for preventing homeruns.
What the hell:
1 Wright
2 Longoria
3 Tulo
4 Sizemore
5 Pujols
6 Hanley
7 Felix
8 Utley
9 Lincecum
10 McCann
Cain wasn’t even on my original top 10 until I saw him mentioned, then thought about how much I liked him going forward. The above post confirmed my gut, which I should have gone with earlier, about not having him on the list. So in reevaluating my final pick, I’ll go with one of the shortstops: Rollins or Tulo. I agree with Sky’s argument about defense, as Tulo’s fielding was good enough to make him for valuable than Braun last year despite Braun’s incredible offense. However, I’ll go with Rollins, as I think Tulo’s injuries this year will keep him out of the Top 50.
A sleeper pick could be David Price. Obviously he isn’t in the majors right now, but if we are talking about trade value he has to rank way up there.
That being said…
1. Hanley
2. Wright
3. Lincecum
4. Felix
5. Longoria
6. Utley
7. Sizemore
8. Price
9. Pujols
10. McCann
Dave said in one of the previous comments threads that there are only 4 pitchers ahead of Halladay. Considering he has already put Hamels and Webb ahead of him, and Felix and Lincecum should be in the top 10 – I think Cain is out.
With that being said, I think the most compelling argument is to put in Rollins or Tulo. I think Dave is going to find another middle infielder or catcher rather than an outfileder so I could see Navarro as a possibility as well.
No way it’s Navarro. He’s a AVG-only hitter with only half a decent season on the majors.
Rollins should be on the list, thanks to his contract — $8MM per year for four more years. Now I’m thinking Dave went this direction, but I’d personally rather have Tulo (thanks, Cot’s):
08:$0.75M
09:$0.75M
10:$3.5M
11:$5.5M
12:$8.5M
13:$10M
14:$15M club option ($2M buyout)
Well, we know that there are no more pitchers. With Gordon a small possibility, Tulo and JRol seem like the best options. Here is a quick breakdown
Troy Tulowitzki
23
2008-0.75M
2009-0.75M
2010-3.5M
2011-5.5M
2012-8.5M
2013-10M
2014-15M (option)
Jimmy Rollins
29
2008-7M
2009-7.5M
2010-7.5M
2011-8.5M
Tulo is signed for longer, getting paid less on average than Rollins. And he’s six years younger. Unless were all missing the boat, it’s probably Tulo in the top 10.
Scott, there are more important things than a 3 million difference in salary. Rollins is the reigning NL MVP who plays very good SS defense so I think he should be in the top 10. Also, this list is pretty cool to me because I have Hanley, Lincecum, J-Upton, Braun, Zimmerman, and Buchholz on my fantasy keeper team.
Cano at #45? Over Brandon Phillips? What a joke
Obviously Cano’s not hitting well at all this year, but let’s look at the past two years of OPS+ for both guys:
Cano: 126, 120
Phillips: 88, 105
Phillips probably has a small edge in the field and is a better baserunner, but he also grounds into a crapload of double-plays. Then there’s the contract situation:
Phillips, age 27
08:$2.75M
09:$4.75M
10:$6.75M
11:$11M
12:$12M club option ($1M buyout)
Cano, age 25
08:$3M
09:$6M
10:$9M
11:$10M
12:$14M club option ($2M buyout)
13:$15M club option ($2M buyout)
Those are pretty much the same, although Cano costs $1-$2MM more per season and has an extra option year.
Unless you’re overreacting to half a season, Cano’s the better player, is younger, and has a similar contract.
On the theory that up-the-middle players are more valuable, here’s my guess:
1. Hanley
2. Sizemore
3. Wright
4. Utley
5. Felix
6. Longoria
7. Pujols
8. Linecum
9. McCann
10. Chris Young (Diamondbacks)
The last player is either Tulowitzki or Rollins. Tulo may be an awesome defender, but his road stats are pretty pedestrian and not many GM’s understand defensive value enough to make it a top trade target priority. Rollins gets my vote just because the league probably thinks he’s more valuable and would thusly trade more to acquire him (perception is often reality in MLB).
As for my order, I’d go:
1. Chase Utley – maybe the best player in baseball right now as he’s great offensively and plays probably the toughest position to find great offense
2. David Wright
3. Hanley Ramirez
4. Albert Pujols
5. Felix Hernandez
6. Tim Lincecum
7. Grady Sizemore
8. Evan Longoria
9. Brian McCann
10. Jimmy Rollins
1. Hanley Ramirez
2. Felix Hernandez
3. Evan Longoria
4. Tim Lincecum
5. Albert Pujols
6. Grady Sizemore
7. David Wright
8. Chase Utley
9. Matt Holliday(Chris B. Young/Jimmy Rollins???)
10. Brian McCann
3-8 is all very, very close.
No youk, pedroia or elsbury ? Find it hard to buy this list.
Once I saw this post, I was gonna do something like a projected WAR based on position and age thing, (which Dave probably did) but thought against it and just decided guesstimate on the trade values.
Without further ado, here’s my picks.
1. Troy Tulowitzki
2. Evan Longoria
3. Felix Hernandez
4. Grady Sizemore
5. David Wright
6. Hanley Ramirez
7. Albert Pujols
8. Tim Lincecum
9. Brian McCann
10. Chase Utley
My list might look crazy, after some thought I gave #1 to Tulowitzki. He is a GREAT defensive player at an up the middle position topping nearly every advanced defensive metric in existence, and has a great contract favoring the team. His 2008 thus far has been bad, but since we are projecting into the future, Tulo gets my vote.
Longoria is one of the hardest players to project at this point with a lack of sample size in the majors, but his minor track record rocks, his defense seems at least average or better (working with what I’ve seen thus far), has one of the most ridiculously good contracts ever, so he’s way up the list. He has bigger uncertainties than anyone else on the top 10, but even if he flops, the Rays are only hooked for 6/17.5M.
Looking at the list of other people here, I see most people put Hanley Ramirez near the top of their list. He doesn’t make the top 5 on my list because he is a butcher with the glove. He is something like 15~20 runs below average (2007 numbers here), and is a good candidate to move into a less defensively demanding position in the future, and will kill his value. He has a hell of a bat but well, defense matters. (Oh, and he’s now commanding a bigger paycheck too)
Although Lincecum is having one hell of a season and is one more year away from arbitration than Felix, I’d still take Felix over Lincecum. He has a small frame with larger risk of injury, two years older than Felix, and nowhere near Felix in ability to induce groundballs. As good as Lincecum is, Felix’s ceiling is just much higher, and is only 22.
Brian McCann is an interesting choice, because I would probably take Russell Martin over McCann here. Of course, McCann has the better contract, but the Dodgers have rights to Martin until 2012 even without an extention. Once he gets some extension (I’m not saying this is happening) he’s a definite top 10, maybe even a top 5 guy. Martin is a better “catcher” and is durable as hell. I’d actually want to know why you picked McCann with better value than Martin. (Age? Martin’s small frame? Ned Colletti?)
Pujols is Pujols, but costs $16 Mil a year, and has lingering injuries, which bumps him off the top 5. If not for his age, Chase Utley would be much higher on this list, but he is turning 30 in a couple months, so #10 for him.
That’s my thoughts on the final ten. I’d love thoughts my choices from other readers, and especially from Dave.
“No youk, pedroia or elsbury ? Find it hard to buy this list.”
Dave’s more than capable of taking up for himself on this one, but I thought it warranted mention that Ellsbury is already on the list (and you spelled his frikkin’ name wrong, too!) Also, had this list included 75 players or so, I’m sure Youkilis and Pedroia would clearly be in the mix. I think either could be argued to be a better value than James Loney, but we’re talking about the very end of the list here where Dave has already said that there were any number of interchangeable players to put at that spot. Dave probably just likes Loney’s swing a little better, and honestly, if you watch Loney swing, it’s hard NOT to rank him in the top 50 most valuable players in baseball.
neat list. I’d have to say i think lester belongs in the 40-50 range, probably more than buchholz. After throwing his 2nd shutout this season(against the yankees), lester is bordering on pollished. His walks are way down and he just seems to have figured it out. I also seem to recall the sox were much more willing to include ellsbury for santana than they were lester.