MLB Trade Value ‘08: #6 – #10
Continuing on in the week long series on the 50 most valuable assets in major league baseball. If you missed the introduction, it can be found here.
Ranking, Player, Position, Franchise, 2006-2008 WPA/LI
10. Troy Tulowitzki, SS, Colorado, -1.00 WPA/LI
9. Tim Lincecum, RHP, San Francisco, 2.45 WPA/LI
8. Felix Hernandez, RHP, Seattle, 3.22 WPA/LI
7. Chase Utley, 2B, Philadelphia, 10.49 WPA/LI
6. Brian McCann, C, Atlanta, 2.84 WPA/LI
When he’s healthy enough to take the field, you can count on one hand the list of human beings on the planet who are better defensively than Tulowitzki. According to pretty much every possible way you could evaluate defense – stats, scouts, magic 8 ball – Tulo was somewhere between 20 and 30 runs better than an average defensive shortstop last year. Shortstops are, of course, the very best defenders in the game already, so Tulo was heads and shoulders ahead of the best of the best. When recounting how Colorado made it to the World Series last year, nothing deserves mention before Tulo’s defense. There are still legitimate questions about whether he’s just going to be an average hitter or develop into a good one, but here’s the thing – if he puts up a major league average offensive line, his defense is good enough to make him a 4 to 5 win player alone. If he turns himself into a real hitter, he’ll be the best player in the game. The Rockies were wise to lock him up when they did.
There haven’t been too many college arms in recent years that caused as much division coming into the draft as Lincecum. His diminutive size, unorthodox mechanics, and crazy workloads at the University of Washington convinced a lot of people that the risks surrounding him had reached the level of red flags. The Giants, however, ignored the risks, focused on the reward, and have reaped the benefits of one of the game’s best young pitchers. Lincecum’s power arsenal allows him to miss enough bats that the lack of command isn’t a huge problem, and he’s dominated the National League since showing up in San Francisco. At 24 and with just over one full year of service time, he’s a long way from any kind of real payday, and as long as he keeps his right arm attached to the rest of his body, he’s going to keep getting people out with his unique pitching style.
I, among others, have been hyping up King Felix for so long that a significant portion of people view him as a disappointment for not turning into the game’s best pitcher to date, so I feel somewhat compelled to remind those people that Felix is still 22 years old. He has racked up just short of 600 major league innings at an age where a normal pitching prospect is still in Double-A. He’s shown extended flashes of brilliance, and his stuff is still better than any other pitcher alive. The upside is still off the charts, and there’s an argument to be made that trading him right now, for anyone, would be selling low. However, he’s garnered enough service time that he stops being free next year, and he’s a couple of years away from what will almost certainly be the biggest free agent contract ever given to a pitcher. As much as I love Felix, he still hasn’t become the ace he can be, and he’s going to get paid like the greatest pitcher in history pretty soon. It’s time to take your throne, kid.
There’s a pretty good argument to be made that, right now, Utley is the best player in baseball. His consistency over the last four years has made him one of the game’s truly elite hitters, and it doesn’t hurt that he plays a terrific second base. There are better hitters, and there are better fielders, but there aren’t any who offer a better package of both. If he doesn’t win an MVP award soon, he should just steal the pair that have already been given to his undeserving teammates. However, he’s already 29, second baseman don’t age particularly well, and he’s getting paid like an All-Star. That’s enough to knock him down a few pegs on this list, but don’t let it talk you out of realizing just how great he really is.
The return of McCann’s 2006 power has allowed him to re-establish himself as the game’s premier offensive force behind the plate, and at just 24, he’s off to the kind of start to a career that ends in Cooperstown. When you offer the combination of middle-of-the-order offense and the ability to catch, you have a remarkably valuable player. The Braves got McCann signed long term at the right time, and thanks to their prescience, he won’t earn market value until he becomes a free agent in 2014. By then, Atlanta will have received the prime years of his career for a grand total of $27 million. That’s a huge asset.
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So that means Julio Lugo is somewhere in the top 5. Interesting.
If this list went to 100, would Ichiro make it? Thinking about trade values and seeing how the top 50 are weighted makes me even more curious about some of the stars of the game not present in the top 50.
Ichiro has a ridiculous contract for a 34-year-old, slap-hitting right fielder with speed and agility and his two primary weapons. I suppose one variable this list doesn’t take into account is business value, and a guy like Ichiro likely carries that value and then some for the Mariners, as they build their international appeal, but I digress….
Would be a neat case study to look at a handful of players not in the top fifty and try and rank their worth.
Lincecum is in the top 5 for me, certainly above Felix. Felix has better overall stuff, but he has 2 more years service time (which is big) and strikes me as a slightly higher injury risk (I put more stock into biomechanics than stature). Lincecum is already an ace and might be Pedro Part Deux (i.e. shorter righty of slight build who absolutely dominates). I take Lincecum solely because of his service time. Even if you think Felix is a better talent, he’s not so much better that he negates a 2-year service time advantage for Lincecum.
I am a tremendous Utley fan. I’ve had him in an NL-only keeper league since I took him for $2 back in 2004 (he’ll be $27 for me next year and is still a great keeper). As great as he is, I still think his contract and age should knock him down behind someone like Lincecum.
Of course, with guys ranked so close together, this is just splitting hairs!
The rankings are slightly biased toward position players since pitchers don’t have the same impact over a full season. I’m guessing that, all contracts being equal, Dave would pick Chase Utley ‘08 over Brandon Webb ‘08 for one season of play.
There aren’t any pitchers in the top five, and really, with the rate at which pitcher’s fall apart and lose all value, that’s going to be true nearly every year. The risks associated with pitchers are just so much higher than with position players, you’d really have to have one like early-2000s Pedro at a below market contract to have a top five long term asset. They just break down too often to justify giving up a great young position player in exchange.
Also, if Lincecum was in the AL and in a park that didn’t suppress home runs by left-handed hitters to such an extreme level, I doubt that anyone would be interested in taking him ahead of Felix. He’s obviously a good pitcher, but his context is helping him out a good deal.
Statspeak’s round-table asked who you would like to start a franchise with…. Eric said Wright, Pizza said Pujols, and Peter Bendix (guest) said Longoria. In the comments I said Hanley (assuming I can move him to CF), so I’m gonna guess that he’s #1 on this list, with the #2 being Pujols. But it wouldn’t surprise me if you had those two flipped.
Pitching wins championships (just ask A-Rod). Are pitchers a little more risky? Of course. But it is harder to find an ace pitcher than it is an elite hitter. Plus, I believe in Lincecum’s long-term health, which is part of the reason I would rate him higher. I agree with your general statement regarding pitcher risk, I just think Lincecum will stay healthy.
As for Lincecum v. Felix, are you really using Lincecum’s park as an excuse for HR supression when Felix pitches in Safeco, a nightmare for RH hitters? They’ve both been a bit lucky in that regard this year.
You have them ranked right next to each other, so its really silly to quibble. If they had the same service time, I think its a toss-up. But Lincecum is under team control below-market for 2 more years than Felix, and that is worth a TON. That is the main reason I like Lincecum more. That and he hasn’t had the same injury red flags the past couple seasons.
That said, if I had to start a franchise with a player, I would choose a hitter. But if I had to choose a pitcher, I’d choose Lincecum.
Pitching does not win championships – that’s a total myth.
As for Safeco, it’s actually quite HR friendly for left-handed hitters, which are the the hitters who Felix has trouble with. The fact that Safeco suppresses HRs by RHBs isn’t that big a deal for him, since he destroys RHBs by himself.
If Felix got to pitch in a park that killed LHBs, he didn’t have to deal with the DH, and he got to play in the inferior league, I think it’s obvious that his performance would be quite a bit better despite being the same pitcher. I’m not saying Lincecum isn’t good – I’m saying his surroundings are more conducive to success.
Prior to Lincecum being drafted you downplayed him and said he was damaged goods…don’t think you’re very objective.
While Lincecum has less service time, he is two years older than felix and has more wear and tear from UW. So, not only does Felix have more potential (being that he is younger) he also has less wear and tear. That alone should make up the two year difference in service time when you add onto the fact that Felix’s pitches are the best in the game.