Moose!
Mike Mussina did not have too great of a season last year. He barely surmounted the 150 innings plateau even with 27 starts and a relief appearance. He fanned just 91 hitters, a 5.39 K/9, his lowest rate since 1994. Coupled with a 2.07 BB/9, Mussina’s 2.60 K/BB was his lowest since 1993. Surrendering 188 hits in those 152 innings helped produce a career worst 1.47 WHIP. Stranding just 66% of those baserunners resulted in all time high ERA of 5.15. With numbers like that and a fastball that struggled to touch 86-87 miles per hour, the end appeared to be rapidly approaching this potential and oft-debated hall of fame candidate.
There were some good signs, however, as the hits surrendered hinged upon an unusually high .340 BABIP. Additionally, despite 5.15 ERA, his FIP was a solid 4.01, which might not be the caliber of a #1 pitcher, but definitely what a team should be looking for in a #3-#4 guy. Entering this season, the Marcel projection system saw Mussina as a 4.53 ERA/3.95 FIP pitcher with a 2.83 K/BB and a 1.38 WHIP. His numbers were projected to regress a bit, but not all the way back to the Moose from the late 90′s/early 2000′s.
With a week left in the season, Mussina has made many forget about last season’s numbers as he has been a rock for the Yankees staff. In 32 starts, he has pitched in 189.1 innings, and while he has gotten hit around a bit to the tune of 207 hits surrendered and a .326 BABIP, his WHIP has dropped to 1.25. The major reason for this is his 1.38 BB/9, which happens to be the lowest of his entire career. Coupled with a nice 6.70 K/9, Mussina’s K/BB now rests at 4.86, one of the highest in his career. The strand rate has regressed to the league average 72%, and with the reduced amount of baserunners, period, this has helped him to a 3.57 ERA. His FIP of 3.38 suggests it should be even lower.
His fastball has gotten even slower this year, as he averages around 84-86 mph on his “heater” but something noteworthy is his change of rates on balls in play. His career rate of grounders is 43%, and from 2002-2007, it ranged from 40-43%. This year, however, he is at 48%. It is very tough to discuss Mussina right now without mentioning his hall of fame candidacy, so I will leave that for the comments section below, but if he were to retire following this season, going out on top so to speak, what do you consider his chances to be? Or does he need one more season like this to cement his place in Cooperstown?
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“Marcel projection system saw Mussina as a 4.53 ERA/3.95 FIP pitcher ”
Maybe I’ve misunderstood the concept of FIP, but how have a system project a pitcher to have an ERA higher (or lower) that FIP? Isn’t a difference between FIP and ERA based on fortune/misfortune? Did Marcel project Mussina to be unlucky this year?
Again, maybe I’ve misunderstood FIP, but some clarification would be awesome. Thanks.
For some reason, some projection systems project each individual stat out of context. Marcel does this so that it remains incredibly simple. So to project Mussina’s win totals next season, Marcel will just use win totals from the previous 3 seasons.
The reason it projected him to have a big difference between his FIP and ERA this season is solely because of the bug difference last season. Regression knows nothing about the relationship between FIP and ERA.
More advanced systems don’t have these same problems (as far as I know) to the extent that Marcel does..
Moose through 5 innings tonight: 4 hits, 6 K’s, no walks, no runs, 7-2 GB/FB
IMO, if Mussina get’s snubbed, it’ll be along the lines of what happened to Blyleven. IMO, you can’t consider Schilling or Smoltz without giving Moose the nod. I suspect the writers will screw him though.
Thanks Eric. I didn’t see what happened (not near a TV), but Moose got hit in the elbow and is now out of the game after 5. Hopefully the bullpen holds the lead and he can get win #19.
I’m factoring in Moose’s run environment, and especially the fact he spent his career in the AL. Schilling has had some great years, and in some of the toughest parks for a pitcher, but spent most of his career in the NL. I’d give Smoltz extra consideration for being with one team his whole career, but you have to consider the fact he played in the NL, in a pitchers park, and in front of some great defenses.
I’d vote for all 3 of them, and maybe (probably) Kevin Brown.
And now his K/BB ratio is officially over 5. One more win on Sunday (I think) and he has his 20 win season that the writers have been saying is missing from his resume.
And I think its absolutely ridiculous that his HOF chances may very well rest on his next game.
Before this season I considered Moose a HOFer already, and believed that his performance as the Yankee’s planned 5th starter should do little to help or hurt his HOF resume. After the Cy Young conversation season he’s had this year my opinion has changed little. Mussina is a clear HOFer in an era where the 300 game winner has died off. In 20 years it will be impractical to use 300 wins as a HOF benchmark for SP unless the baseball writers want to exclude the Johan Santana’s of the world, who only reached 100 wins this year. I will consider it a travesty as a Yankees fan if Mussina isn’t brought back next year and enshrined in the HOF when his career ends.
I’m pretty sure the whole milestone things (300 wins, 3000 hits, 500 hr) worked because they serve as a proxy for the talent level of the player. To get 300 wins, you had to be a great pitcher for long enough to count, same w/ 3000 hits or 500 HR for hitters. The problem is, we no better now. We have a better idea of how much a fielder contributes, or that a high walk guy can be just as effective, if not more, than the high AVG guy. The milestones are obsolete, and unfortunately, so is the BBWAA as a baseball authority.
The sad thing is the writers don’t get it. They hold onto cliches and still believe in ideas of player value that have been repeatedly debunked.
For example, the “hardware” the player’s earned is used against them for HOF votes. So is playoff experience. So if someone plays for a bad team, or is in some other players shadow, they get less consideration?!
I’ll stop ranting. On an only somewhat related note, I believe the only thing keeping Pujols from being a guaranteed famer is the 10 year rule. 2 years from now he’ll be a hall of famer no matter what.
Ichiro too. I believe has Japanese stats should absolutely be used in his favor, just with weighted value. If you do proper league factors, it’s obvious, the MLB Ichiro is about the same player offensively as the Pacific league Ichiro, and his defense must have been unearthly as a young Ichiro. He was also a pioneer. Again, the only thing I can see keeping him out is the 10 year rule.
As a life long Mariner fan, it’s hard to be objective, but I’m certain Ichiro is a HOF player, and deservedly so.
I’ll stop with the OT HOF discussion (unless it’s welcomed).
By historical standards, Mussina already was a probable Hall of Famer before this season. However, the past several seasons, the BBWAA has been applying a tighter standard to starting pitchers and the veterans committee hasn’t been admitting players, so there’s some sense that the historical standard is becoming more strict. Whether this is a temporary aberation or a new long-term trend can’t be determined at this time.
Subjectively, I’d put Mussina in the Hall (and Blyleven and Schilling and Smoltz too). I like to follow the historical standard which indicates the difference between being in or out of the Hall is somewhere between Jim Bunning and Mickey Lolich, between Herb Pennock and Allie Reynolds, between Vic Willis and Frank Tanana. It strikes me as more elegant to aim for the same de facto standard across time given where we are today. The 300 career win benchmark was the benchmark for a slam dunk Hall of Famer, not ever a minimum for a likely Hall of Famer.