More Mainstream Sabermetrics Thoughts
Last week, Dan Novick of Statistically Speaking wrote a post discussing the current relationship of sabermetrics and the mainstream in an attempt to figure out why advanced statistical analysis is not more popular. Dave Cameron responded here, largely pointing out that sabermetrics have in fact been integrated into the mainstream, with links to our posts popping up at ESPN and the Wall Street Journal, and teams reaching out to hire very solid analysts in order to bolster their operations staff.
Even further, the MLB Network is using ERA+ in their Prime 9 series, and ESPN showed OPS numbers in their lower-third graphics in last night’s Phillies-Braves season opener. It is undeniable that great strides have been made but I still do not believe that sabermetrics are necessarily mainstream… and, to be quite honest, I am glad.
This might seem like a counterintuitive statement from an analyst like myself, but I look at things differently than others. I’m not in this game to prove a greater knowledge than the casual fan, nor am I in this field to constantly berate mainstream analysis or the opinions of commentators who still think batting average is the mecca of number-crunching. Certain members of the sabermetrics crowd certainly fall into this category, but my goal has always been to increase the wisdom of anyone willing to listen. If there is one thing I have learned in my 23 years on this planet, it would be that convincing someone to agree with you while they steadfastly hold onto their own belief is incredibly futile. I’m not going to waste time trying to convert batting average advocates into the wOBA faithful.
If sabermetrics were truly ingratiated with the mainstream, the wonderful analysis found here, at The Book Blog, The Hardball Times, Baseball Prospectus, and all of the other analysis-oriented blogs/sites might not exist. We could instead turn to Sportscenter to find out Win Values leaders, or listen to Joe Morgan discuss the benefits of UZR. I get as ticked off as anyone else when announcers ramble on about RBIs or when Harold Reynolds and Barry Larkin express their desire for quality .215 hitters, but I love being able to analyze the game from a different perspective. If sabermetrics were the norm, the outlets to do so would be few and far between, and would instead be hogged by the Plaschke’s, Mariotti’s, and Paige’s of the world.
I thoroughly enjoy receiving random Facebook friend requests from readers of my work, or looking over in a computer lab at school and seeing someone reading posts on this site. In a relatively small group, one can not only make a real difference in the field in question, but can also truly feel the impact.
People have very specific comfort zones which is the primary reason I feel sabermetrics are not more popular. When the “old-time” baseball people scoff at the idea of analysis, they are criticizing change moreso than the information itself. It gets pretty ridiculous when they go onto criticize those providing the information, which is where much of the hullabaloo of stats vs. scouts is derived.
Sabermetrics are definitely finding their way into more mainstream outlets, but they are not fully accepted by the bigger piece of the population pie, and this particular writer is perfectly fine with that fact. For anyone interested and willing to listen, thereby increasing their knowledge of the game and understanding of how players actually contribute from a production standpoint, all of us here at Fangraphs will always do our best to provide top of the line advanced statistical analysis. For the uninterested parties who will never read these words, all I ask is that you accept the benefits analysis like this can provide even if you choose not to utilize such information.
Ultimately, this plea may go unheard for quite some time. Before sabermetrics can truly get to its mainstream apex, those opposing the form of analysis need to get past their own personal aversions to change. Human nature says such a conversion is unlikely to take place, but before we list all of the baseball-related reasons for sabermetric resistance, look first to those actually resisting, as their reasoning likely deals much moreso with personal makeup than anything like fantasy baseball. For now, we just have to deal with the fact that the wonderful pool of statistical analysts and the loyal readers who flock to our sites hoping to increase their wisdom are in the minority, and we need to understand that being in this minority is in no way a bad thing.
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I think stuff like this just takes a long time to work it’s way into the game. People forget that there are a great deal of very old, very young, and very casual fans who don’t understand sabermetrics at all. You can’t just dump this stuff on them all at once. It happens over time.
I think eventually the time will come when RBI’s aren’t discussed, but it could be quite a while longer.
I wouldn’t put it all on the old, young or casual. I think almost anybody can understand OBP or OPS instead of batting average. The problem is most game broadcasts still focus on the triple crown stats(and strikeouts) instead.
I can understand not getting into more in depth things like wOBA. Also using fielding percentage(ugh) for players since most advanced defensive metrics are still in the early stages.
I like the point.
One reason I’ve had a desire for sabermetrics is because the team I root for, the Cubs, always seemed to put a premium on filling the stands over winning games, not understanding that the two don’t have to be mutually-exclusive. As long as they could get players the fans love, those look-like-you-try-as-hard-as-you-can-even-if-you’re-not-so-great Todd Walkers, John Mabry’s of the baseball world. Had sabermetrics been more “mainstream”, the casual fan would have had a better understanding of the real value of players and management might have been forced to embrace it sooner. Who knows?
Luckily, the miserable 2006 season came, along with the empty stands, along w/ an increased payroll and a lot of contracts coming off of the books. I can’t say for certain that the Cubs have embraced sabermetrics, but I don’t see how one can justify paying Milton Bradley over Adam Dunn w/o having some knowledge of advanced stats and how 100 games of MB > 160 games of AD.
Hopefully, Hendry has welcomed advanced stats if not embraced them. Hopefully, Ricketts recognize this and hopefully they keep the payroll in the Top-4 of MLB (Yankees, Red Sox, alongside the Mets). If this happens, the Cubs might just end up being the class of the NL. I hope. Get to the playoffs every year, and I’m happy. Eventually they’ll win it.
Ya I saw OPS last night when batters came up to the plate during the Braves vs. Phillies game, with a brief description of what it meant. I immediately thought about this site when I saw it.
I don’t mind that the mainstream sports media isn’t well versed in sabermetrics, but I would prefer a minimum level of statistical proficiency (or at least a lack of idiocy) from these major “news” outlets. But then again, sports is entertainment, so it’s probably my problem as much as theirs.
“…or listen to Joe Morgan discuss the benefits of UZR.” That is gold, though I was surprised when Morgan mentioned OPS in the pre-game last night.
When I’ve had discussions with people about sabermetrics, I’ve usually found that people in general are just intimidated by math.
There is a glimmer of hope that a stat like wOBA can eventually make it’s way into the discussion. Has anyone looked at the formula for QB rating?
I have always liked Rob Neyer’s view of sabermetrics as something of a niched scientific field. When thinking of it that way, you understand how it can take time for brilliant ideas that go against the grain to work their way into mainstream consciousness, much like how Bronx Baseball Daily noted. Most people (unlike the majority of readers here and at other sabermetric sites) won’t try to learn this on their own, so if they’re not taught, they don’t understand it, and we all tend to dismiss ideas which we don’t understand. But, as Rich notes, there’s a lack of statistical proficiency in the mainstream media. As a statistician by trade, it annoys me to no end when a numerical figure is flung out there without an explanation or understanding of how it was calculated.
I agree with all of the points mentioned in this thread, but I guess my overall point is being missed in that I LOVE that is a niched field and wouldn’t have it any other way.
I think I understood that, I just disagreed. I’m not sure if it stayed completely niche (as in, not even infiltrating front offices-or at least the Cubs), the team I followed wouldn’t be as good.
I also think that as more teams adopt advanced statistics, the beat writers, who tend to echo teams and reach a wider audience than blogs, will have to educate themselves to an extent, and they’ll naturally (unintentionally and on purpose) begin to educate the public… to varying degrees, of course.
Nice post, Eric.
“If there is one thing I have learned in my 23 years on this planet”
This type of line only works if you have real life experience, which is only gained after 60 or so years. IMHO this just reeks of arrogance from a 23 year old.
I’m 25 and I approve this message.
Right, that’s what should be gleaned from the post.
But seriously Eric, when will you stop putting your age at the bottom of your articles? We get it – you’re a young, bright guy. It just seems precocious to point out your age like that. It was magnified in this article by a needless reference to your “23 years on this planet.”
“precocious”???
I’ll respond when people would like to discuss baseball or this post, not ridiculous assertions about an online signature that automatically shows up.
People leave this guy alone. What is this 2nd grade? If you don’t have anything nice to say you might as well not say it.
The point is this is a baseball site and we come here to read great articles about baseball. I agree wholeheartedly with your statement regarding educating readers willing to listen rather than preaching to the stubborn and closed-minded.
I also believe that as a writer all your work is up for criticism, including pointless references to your age. If you don’t like that then you can stop referencing your age in your posts. Remember that FJM had a successful run criticizing mainstream announcers and writers.
Congratulations on being young, bright, and working hard to create the opportunity to write about baseball for a living. Now just stop making pointless references to your age and “experience” and focus on the games and stats.
Signed,
Older member of Gen Y
Damn you for bringing up FJM. Now I have to go on a week-long bender to stave off the depression.