More on the Pirates Front Office
All things considered, maybe it’s for the best that no small market teams made the playoffs. Now the next four months will be void of asking who the next “x” is. The sensation grasped onto the Tigers’, Rockies’, and Rays’ unlikely runs and killed any reasonable discussion of the next up-and-comer. Naturally nobody mentioned the most-likely choice, which happens to be the Pittsburgh Pirates.
Dave went in-depth on the aesthetic appeal of yesterday’s Iwamura deal and I covered the gritty baseball details last night, but some of the quotes from Pirates general manger Neal Huntington show why this team is in better hands now than most people suspect. Take this one, transcribed by Dejan Kovacevic, which touches on the service time issue (Chavez’ being under team control for an additional five seasons to Iwamura’s one):
“It was tough to give up Jesse, but the bullpen is the most difficult area to predict future performance. In our minds, it was much more difficult to find 600 quality plate appearances than 60 relief appearances.”
Focus in on the middle point more than the former (the Pirates liked Chavez) or latter (600 plate appearances of quality is harder to find than 60 relief appearances) and you see a common sabermetric principle: relievers are quite difficult to project moving forward. Take reliever’s home run rates. They have virtually no relationship year-to-year, yet they are important in a reliever’s success or failure. Again, this is nothing groundbreaking and most people who realize the sample sizes being dealt with are minuscule compared to the preferable total are rolling their eyes at this point.
Still, the sins committed by a previous front office leave residuals on the minds of many. People still think Pittsburgh is ran by a train of fools and that’s simply untrue. Huntington did excellent work in Cleveland and has assembled a few good men around him, such as Dan Fox. Check out his response to the most overrated statistic here and keep this in mind for when the Pirates start winning games. It’ll happen if this front office is given enough time.
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Joe Morgan used his chats to conduct a month-long diatribe on how bad the Pirates are for getting rid of all their good players.
Yes, because when they had Bay / Nady / Sanchez / Wilson / LaRoche / etc, they were winning a lot of ball games, right?
The Morgan trade looks kind of crappy right now (I know some people in DC, think Morgan’s the greatest thing ever, and when you OPS .831 with his defense, I can see why they would), but other than that, they turned their roster over nicely and now have plenty of young, cost controlled talent. Here’s to Garrett Jones continuing to mash, I guess.
Initially, I thought there was no way Milledge could make up for Morgan’s defense, even if he could out perform Nyjer at the plate. However, Milledge took very well to the outfield instruction of Varsho, and made a remarkable turn around on defense.
It’s always an iffy proposition to compare small samples of UZR, but when the stats back up what you see with your eyes and quantify that, then I believe it.
Lastings was about -20 UZR after 2 weeks as a Pirate and the eyes said he was as horrible as that number. Then he began to noticeably and visibly improve his routes and decision making and finished the season as +11 UZR/150 making several sensational catches and showing a good accurate arm.
It will be interesting to see how that all measures in 2010. But I can say that unless Morgan can sustain an OBP of over .400, I like Milledge’s chances to be the better player next year.
Huntington’s quote is of course true but it’s also phrased to make the deal seem like a steal. This may seem like a nitpick but the Pirates traded up to 300 relief innings (not 60) for up to 600 plate appearances.
I still think 5M for Iwamura could be better spent. Maybe for another 2-win player when the Pirates can actually compete. Maybe for a signing bonus for another Sano.
I understand Dave’s point. A 1 or 2 win improvement is worth something to a losing team but I don’t think it’s worth 5M and 5 years of a even a mediocre relief arm.
I’m reserving judgement until the trading deadline. Iwamura could be flipped at a higher value and that would make my whole post irrelevent but as of now, that’s where I stand.
People seem to forget that this site has Chavez at MINUS 0.4 wins versus replacement in 2009, giving him a NEGATIVE value. Kicking him off the Pirates’ bench is an upgrade. Probably even Brad Lincoln or some current minor leaguer could do better.
And when does a reliever EVER pitch 300 innings in a season. Even a starter doesn’t do that; even Mariano Riviera doesn’t do that. That implies two innings a game for 150 games. 60 innings sounds about right.
The fact that the Pirates are a laughingstock works to their benefit, as does the unfortunately Jason Bay trade. In retrospect, it led teams to think that they can “steal” the Pirates’ best players for their cast-offs, like Andy LaRoche and Brandon Moss. These same teams don’t realize that if the Pirates’ players had been as good (in the aggregate) as they seem to think they are, the Pirates wouldn’t be in the cellar.
That allows the current Pirate front office to read other teams like a book; to trade highly valued Pirates for other players based on a “true” assessment. In poker, if I can see your cards and you can’t see mine, I win.
he was saying that Chavez is cost controlled for 5 years. 5 x 60 = 300.
Chavez is no big shakes and I’m not concerned about having lost him but the Pirates didn’t trade away only 1 season (60 innings) of relief pitching. They traded away up to 5 seasons (300 innings). Sorry for not making myself clearer.
I highly doubt Chavez will be useful enough to keep during his arb. years. His peripheral stats are not very good, and there is nothing to suggest he is better than his peripherals.
I’d agree with Justin.
Yeah but Chavez is easily replaceable, and most likely upgradeable. I’m sure (and I don’t know much about their farm system) that they can find another schmuck in their minors that can equal Chavez’s production. Aki Iwamura obviously will not make a difference there long term and may not even be around past July, but as Dave pointed out in the article yesterday he gives people a reason to come to the ball park, and as others have pointed out he gives them another trade chip to grab young talent. At $4.25 million Iwamura’s not going to break the bank either. I don’t think you can just slap young players in at every position either, otherwise you end up fielding a AAA team. Granted, the Pirates aren’t much better than a AAA team right now, but there’s a difference.
And given Iwamura’s career numbers, the Pirates should be able to get a draft pick out of him, correct?
With anything close to a full year of play, he’d safely be a type B, but I’m not sure if the Pirates can offer him Arb.
Here’s the language on Cot’s contracts for Iwamura’s deal with TB.
“contract includes clause requiring TB to sign Iwamura to extension by end of the deal or release him (effectively granting him free agency early)”
I’m sure the actual contract is more precise but going from that, I don’t know.
The way one gets a compensatory draft pick is if you offer arbitration to a player who files for free agency, and he declines and signs with another team.
Iwamura cannot be offered arbitration by the terms of his contract. If that was not the case and he could be offered arbitration, he would be obliged to accept it because he has less than six years’ service time.
He cannot under any circumstances produce a compensatory pick (unless the contract has somehow been misreported).
I don’t see how getting one player makes Pittsburgh the next ‘x’ next year, especially after their fire sale last year. They suck, and will continue to suck like all the small market teams until baseball realizes that it sucks and decides to be more like the NFL.
Go Royals!
Cause a small market team didn’t win the American League just last year…
Yes and the Yankees responded by spending 200mm+ on three players (over a couple of years), thus making it even more difficult for the Royals and Pirates of the world. Last year was a very long time ago…
don’t see how the yankees’ spending affects the pirates one bit (i’d argue it has a minimal effect on the Royals too, but that’s for another time).
they play in a different league.
if anything, i’d imaging the Pirates benefit from the luxury tax the Yankees pay, so i’m sure their spending spree was a net positive to the Pirates.
now, if you want to argue the Yankees’ spending is detrimental to the Jays or the Rays, that’s one thing.
but the Pirates would just be using that as a crutch.
Yeah, then those players will hit their mid 30’s, do what players in their mid 30’s often do and decline, and the Yankees will end up with a whole lot of salary for average-ish players.
Obviously this may be wrong and CC and Teix could be awesome well into their late 30’s, but in the long term, things can still balance out if you’re run right in the FO. Sure, Yankees won 103 games in 2009. They also feature a lineup where 5 of their everyday starters (A-Rod, Jeter, Posada, Damon, Matsui) are over the age of 30, will probably have to get older to improve their SP in 2010 (is there any pitcher on that team you can safely say will be good starter in 2011 outside of Sabathia? Burnett is madding in his inconsistency, Pettitte is 104, and Joba is still rocking a 174 point OPS split from the first time through the order to the second), and outside of A-Rod in April, were amazingly low-injury. They could very easily have Jeter, Teix, and Posada go down in 2010 and become an 85-90 win team. Heck, their xW-L was only 95-67, so they could be back to everyone else’s level in 2010 with nothing happening.
If Joe R. can throw out a lame example that ‘hey look last year the Rays so therefore all small market teams have decent shot’ then why can’t that assertion be rejected with just as lame a counter arguement?
Steve, the Yankees spending affects all the teams. Saying it doesn’t is not logical. What one team spends impacts all the other teams in terms of competing for free agents, as salary markers for their own free agents/arb cases, and for good ole fashion on the field competition. The yankees spending is on display now in the world series. Isn’t it logical to conclude that the additions of Tex, Burnett, CC were driven by losing and not making the playoffs due to the up start small market Rays? If any team has a goal to win a world series then aren’t they impacted by the other teams the may have to play? Aren’t trades of established MLB’s like a certain hot topic guy like Jason Bay direct results of the escalating salaries driven by teams like the Yankees?
Joe R, when their players hit their mid 30’s, and do what players in their mid 30’s often do and decline the Yankees will due what they do and reload with free agents…
And you are assuming that in 2010 a big team team won’t add one new piece to improve? Can you honestly look at the Yankees payroll and players and say with even 50% certainty that they won’t add another starting pitcher (or two)? Do you realize that their payroll is slightly down from last year and projected to go down 40mm+ next year with Damon, Matsui, Petite, Nady all coming off the books?
Pick a small market team all you want, but Ian was on to something…the deck is stacked against them.
In the past year or so, Huntington has picked up 3 pitchers on waivers or through Rule 5 that are more valuable than Chavez.
Evan Meek (3.45 ERA/4.01 tRA), Steven Jackson (3.14 ERA/4.65 tRA), and Donnie Veal (now dominating in AFL).
Chavez might blossom with the Rays or not, but he’s someone that can be picked up basically for free if Huntington continues to prove himself resourceful.
Any pitcher with a 20% line drive rate and a .280 BABIP must be looked at cautiously.
Actually, according to our in house valuations, only two Pirate pitchers were worth LESS than Chavez (the above-mentioned not being among them).
They were Phil Dumatrait, who’s probably on his way out, and Matt Capps, who’s had better years, was injured for part of the past year, and will be a given a “second chance.”
But if Capps “repeats” in 2010, or forbid, in 2011, he’s out too.
I find the Rays’ FO’s inability to construct a competent bullpen puzzling in light of their evident skill in most other areas of roster construction. Is it just that they are so implacably hostile to turning starters into relievers that guys who ought to be relieving in the bigs right now are starting in the minors instead (doing little good for the franchise, since they’ve already got a strong cost-controlled rotation)?
They lucked out when Grant Balfour suddenly had the fluke season of all time in 2008, but other than that, they’ve really struggled with putting a competent group together.
I’m really a little shocked at the support for a GM who overdrafted an okay college player who would sign for slot – again (even if they did go over slot later) and then just traded for a $5m player they don’t need given that they will be lucky to win 70 games next season. If his contract is pretty standard, for him to qualify for a B pick after next season he would need to put up big numbers, which would mean a big increase in arb. Of course they would be really foolish at that point to offer him. Are they going to get back a whole lot more at the deadline than Chavez? Sure, maybe a more highly regarded reliever (those unpredictable guys).
Chavez isn’t even the point, although if I’m the Rays I love just picking up a second year guy with 94.5 mph fastball and plus changeup, shedding payroll, continuing to play a much better player over there (Zobrist), or now being able to move Bartlett at the height of his value and plug in Brignac/Rodriguez. They would have just non-tendered him for nothing. Easy win for the Rays. Pointless move for the Bucs.
I don’t get your logic. Why don’t they need him? Just because they aren’t going to win 85 games doesn’t mean that they should just throw any stiff out there. The capitalized on an opportunity to get a average regular for below market price, both in what they gave up, and salary owed. How is that ever a bad deal?
Paul – last time I checked, even losing teams need someone to play second base. I don’t see the point of saying “We’re not going to win the division this year, let’s just use a replacement player even if we don’t have to.” If nothing else, having a real second baseman helps the value of the pitching staff not fall through the floor as you are evaluating them.
This is a good move for the Rays as well. Both teams got what they needed from it.
Now, about that overdraft at #4 pick last year…It was clear with the thin prospect pool at that point in the draft that there was no consensus standout pick. The smart thing to do at that point is take a position player, not a pitcher, since those hit at a higher rate. The next position player (whom the Pirates also considered) was taken in the middle of the round and signed for only a small amount more than Sanchez signed for.
Put in that perspective, you’re just nitpicking whether you like one or the other. Both would have been a “reach” given the conventional wisdom, and it will be interesting to see over the next few years which pick would have been the better one.
Garrett Jones certainly counted as a replacement level player last offseason. Doesn’t that count as one of the savvy Huntington moves? If your position is that Hunts is a savvy GM based on moves like Garrett Jones or Hanrahan, how do you simultaneously claim that dealing a league minimum middle reliever with upside for a league average 2B who would not get $5m on the open market if TB just turned him loose (which they would have if the Bucs had not given them a something for him) is savvy?
The savvy move would have been claiming Hoffpauir from the Cardinals and let him and Young man it for a year or so. OR wait until TB releases Aki and sign him for 20% of what they will pay him this season. If the Rays were willing to give him away, isn’t that a pretty good indication that he doesn’t have much value? Unless the Rays are idiots, and apparently some here believe they are, forgetting that they picked up J.P. Howell for Gathright.
By the way, regarding your 2B defense point, if we are not capable of evaluating pitchers unless they have stellar defense behind them then why do we bother with xFIP?
They could be using that extra $4m plus to sign the top player on their board in next year’s draft, instead of a slot player. Are you seriously claiming that Sanchez was the top player on their board at #4? If he was, then that is another strike against them. How long has it been since they even tried to develop a high caliber HS pitcher? Burnett? Wait, he was another bargain pick.
Huntington may be a great GM, but this move was not his finest hour. Giving the guy a pass because he uses advanced metrics is not analysis. This move was completely unnecessary and he just threw $5m down a rathole.
I find it a. wildly speculative, and b. extremely improbable, that Iwamura, who is (as you noted) league-average, could not achieve $5M a year on the open market. The implication that they could get him for 20% of that ($1M) is farcical.
Your posts on this thread are full of rather ridiculous assumptions about reality which do not comport with basic economics.
I don’t get the assumption that because the Pirates are spending 5 million on Iwamura, they will somehow be unable to spend it on the draft or latin america.
1. The Pirates draft budget has been one of the highest the past few years.
2. The Pirates major league payroll is nowhere near their self imposed upper limit, so adding 5 million doesn’t effect any other budgets.
3. The Pirates did spent over slot on quite a few high school pitchers last year. Just because they didn’t take Tyler Matzek or whomever in the first round doesn’t mean they are being cheap in the draft.
Paul Thomas: Let me inform you about my understanding of basic economics. A price is based in large measure on supply and demand. There is not a single American League team that would be looking to add Aki as an upgrade for the guy they already have. In the NL there are a few teams besides the Pirates that could use a 2B, but we can guarantee that the Padres would not be buyers.
In a market where a league average player either is not better than the guy half the teams already have, or the guy the already have is the same guy as Aki but cheaper, how exactly does he get anywhere near $5m? Pittsburgh magic beans apparently.
Justin: It is not an assumption; it is an assertion. It’s pretty simple. If they don’t spend $5m that means they have $5m. They can use it to pass out condoms at ladies night for all I care.
The simple fact is that they passed on at least three high upside HS arms at #4 and reached on a player who signed day of for slot. If they do that again this year they will deserve to get savagely ripped, especially since they could have allotted Aki’s salary to the draft budget (remember, if they don’t spend it on Aki, they have it to spend somewhere else).
What you are saying makes no sense whatsoever. Garrett Jones played at replacement level? Do you even know what that means? How does a .390 wOBA player count as replacement player in your book?
Secondly, the fact that the Rays didn’t feel like Aki’s salary was worth it for them, doesn’t mean he had no value for anyone. The Rays had Ben Zobrist emerge in Aki’s absence and he piled up an 8.5 WAR with a 21 UZR/150. Don’t you think they just might have a better cheaper option than the already good option they had in Aki?
As for the draft, Huntington drafted numerous high school pitchers in this draft who might have been first round picks except for their bonus demands. That’s what this draft was all about for the Pirates – taking high upside high school pitchers after round 1. Considering “reach” Tony Sanchez hit over .300 with 7HR in 48 games after signing, it’s looking like they might have made a pretty good decision on him. The future will tell.
I think what people are overlooking is that they traded Freddy Sanchez for Tim Alderson. Iwamura gives you the same value as Sanchez (if not more so) at the same cost, and they got him for nothing.
So, basically, they turned half a season of Freddy Sanchez and a fungible reliever into a year of Iwamura and a good pitching prospect with zero service time.
This is just another in a series of savvy moves by the Pirates FO.
And if NH flips Aki at the deadline too, who knows?
The pirates don’t have a whole lot of middle infield options, though. IF LaRoche makes the switch to 2b, then they’ve still only solved half of that problem.