More Than Werth It
Matt Holliday is making a strong case for a big payday as a free agent this winter, and he deserves it. Over the last two years, he’s accumulated more value than any outfielder in baseball, posting a +11.4 win value in 2008 and 2009. Want to know who is #2?
Jayson Werth, the new leading candidate for the most underrated player in the game.
Werth had a tremendous 2008 season, and he’s followed it up by proving it was no fluke. After hitting .273/.363/.498 last year, he’s topped it with a .274/.377/.523 line. He’s also a tremendous baserunner, having stolen 34 bases and been caught just four times over the past two seasons. He’s Ryan Howard with the benefit of speed and defense, but his slugging teammate continues to garner more press.
Werth shouldn’t be overlooked as one of the primary reasons the Phillies continue to contend in the National League, however. Over the last two years, he’s racked up +9.6 wins of value, ahead of the likes of Manny Ramirez, Ichiro Suzuki, or Ryan Braun. When the elite outfielders in the game are mentioned, however, he’s never mentioned.
Howard, Utley, Rollins, Hamels, and Ibanez have gotten the press, but Werth is just as important to the Phillies. He’s a tremendous player, and he’ll eventually get the recognition he deserves.
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There is absolutely no way that Jayson Werth is as important to the Phillies as Chase Utley. Chase has been worth more than 2 wins a season more than Werth. Werth is a very good player, but Chase Utley is one of the top 5 players in all of baseball.
Yeah here’s the difference though. Chase Utley’s 08/09 salary: $18.5 M. Jayson Werth’s 08/09 salary: $3.7 M.
Both are amazing bargains, but Werth is producing at more than 10 times the rate he’s being paid.
Nowhere in that article did it say he was. “[B]ut Werth is just as important to the Phillies” implies that while the 5 people mentioned get a lot of press, Werth’s season is also an equally important tool to their success. It doesn’t take a genius to figure this out, stop looking for reasons to get upset, because you are finding things that aren’t there.
I wasn’t upset (who gets upset over Fangraphs articles about teams they don’t follow closely?), but now I’m confused. Your reply is, to borrow a phrase, a tautological hellmaze.
Lumping in Utley with Howard/Rollins/Hamels/Ibanez does a disservice to Utley.
Werth is cheaper, but replaceable. Utley isn’t. Comparing Jayson Werth and Utley is like comparing Adam Lind and HanRam.
Not to say that Howard is a speedy, gold glover, but the guy does play above average defense at first and has a 4.8 speed rating this year.
Other than that, Werth is great and definitely deserves more recognition. I hope the Phillies can keep him around the next couple of years.
I had no idea. I’m guessing this is because Werth took more than 1,000 plate appearances (with three teams) to establish himself at the Major League level. An interesting experiment would be to look at players who have a very pedestrian first 1,000 or so plate appearances who subsequently perform at a much higher level and then compare that list to a group of perceived (subjectively) under-valuedness. These would be the anti-Jeff Francouer’s.
Another player I’d love to see walk at the end of the year. Let Bay go, get Type A, sign Werth, we improve, probably for less money, too.
Werth’s not a free agent.
I am an idiot.
If they get rid of werth instead of Ibanez I will cry. Ibanez is really proving that he was not deserving of that contract. But the phillies have some pressure in their system in the outfield, with Mike Taylor probably ready to go to the bigs at the start of next year, and Dom brown probably the year after. Ibanez’s contract is going to kill this the phillies for a couple of years.
Ibanez has more than justified his contract this year and there’s only two years left. He’s not a bargain, but he’s certainly not killing the team either.
My guess is that Taylor starts the year in AAA and then becomes the Phillies 4th outfielder. Anytime Werth, Ibanez, or Victorino need a day off Taylor starts. He can probably get a good amount of at bats this way.
It is almost never a bad thing to have an extra player or two. By the time injuries and rest are figured in, a fourth outfielder ought to get enough playing time (especially in the NL).
I’m surprised you lumped Utley in with the “well-known” players, as most narratives I’ve read about the Phillies either don’t feature him (if they’re gushing about Rollins or Howard) or lament his lack of awards and notability.
UZR hasn’t been as kind to Werth this year.
which is weird. he’s had some lapses out there but he’s still getting to a lot of balls.
even with a bad UZR he still has a high WAR.
anyone able to calculate WAR with an average of his previous UZR’s? i’d imagine he’s be around 6 WAR or so for the year if he was his usual defensive self.
He’d roughly be at 5.8 WAR if he had an “average” UZR year.
I agree the UZR looks rather tough on Werth; oddly, it’s been down on Victorino (-3) as well, while liking Ibanez (+7). Makes me wonder what’s going on in that Phillies’ outfield, or what the heck is wrong with UZR. Werth and Victorino never make it look pretty, but I haven’t been able to notice much of a difference in their play from this year to last. Anyone have any insight into how the Phils outfield got all mixed up?
Anyway, Dave, I’m glad you wrote this little article. I think it was just last season when you said there way no way that Vic and Werth could repeat their value from 2008. They’ve done a pretty good job so far.
I wonder if the OF’s defensive statistical oddity is partially a result of all the LHP the Phillies have used. The MLB split for batters faced by RH vs. LH is around 72% R, 28% L. The Phillies have had 51% R, 49% L. In theory, it shouldn’t affect it, but it seems like it could be a probably cause. Somebody who knows more than me about UZR could say more.
Werth also averages the highest Pit?PA in baseball, a pretty valuable skill in itself.
Why is this a valuable skill?
I think it’s pretty self explanatory. Anyone who’s pitched knows how annoying batters are when they continuously go 6 or 7 pitches deep every at bat. Lenny Dykstra was always vaunted for his ability to make the opposing pitcher use his entire repertoire to start the game. Werth doesn’t intentionally foul off pitches, but he does make the opposition dig deep. The result of seeing more pitches is a higher triple slash line (in most cases) because the hitter has more opportunities with 3 balls to draw walks and also sees more fastballs in those hitters counts…meaning more line drives and gappers.
good example
the other day he’s up at the plate with the bases loaded. he fouls of several pitches, takes a couple of balls, and BOOM! he hits a grand slam.
And to think…the Dodgers could have had an outfield of Werth/Kemp/Ethier making less than $10 million combined. That value would’ve been ridiculous.
If Werth sticks around, the Ethier trade may not be made, given the presence of Drew.
Charlie Manuel recognized Werth’s contributions by selecting him for the All Star team this year over some loud, mostly ill-supported objections (although those calling for Matt Kemp had a fair argument). Good job Charlie!
Most of the arguments weren’t that Werth wasn’t deserving, it was that Howard wasn’t deserving which caused Charlie to select Werth instead of Pablo because he “needed” another OF.
Howard gets the press because he had a two year stretch with an average OPS of over 1.0 and won a MVP award. Lets not act like these guys have put up the same offensive statistics ever year. This is the first year they are fairly comparable offensive players. It takes more then a year of stellar play to get the name recognition of Ryan Howard. Thats not to take anything away from Jayson, who is having a fine year, but its ludicrous to question why he hasn’t gotten the press of Ryan Howard. Howard has done it year after year.
Werth has been equal to Howard this year and was better than him last year. It’s been two years of solid play, plus he was worth 3.4 WAR in 93 games in 2007.
And another thing Ryan Howard’s defense has been unfairly maligned his entire career. He has basically been around average.
No it’s not. He got better defensively because he decided to slim down this past winter (oh, and SSS).
Let’s not forget all the effort he put in improving his footwork. Howard’s greatest atrocities have always been throwing errors. This year he’s cut back on them a lot, which I suspect is the primary difference in the UZR data.
No, he has been atleast average every year except for his rookie year, when he was a whooping half run below average.
It’s probably noteworthy that through 600 PA in 2008, Howard was batting .234/.324/.490, well below average for a 1Bman. I wonder if there are any studies available that look at how players spread productivity over the season, and whether that impacts the actual value to the team, rather than calculating WAR always in aggregate.
Also, not to pile on, but Werth has better plate discipline than Howard.
If a player ‘costs’ a team 5 wins over the first 75% of the season, then ‘contributes’ 10 wins in the last 25%, he is still a 5 win player.
That’s understood, but I am speculating that perhaps a player who hits a HR 6 games in a row may help his team win more games than a guy who hits 6 HR over 3 games. Thoughts on such an extreme example?
I recognize it may not make a difference, since even streakiness is usually spread across a number of games in short succession, not concentrated within one single game.
The value of “consistency” or any other particular spread of performance over others is widely believed in but not empirically demonstrable. I think a lot of people believe it must be valuable to smoothly spread out your performance because ‘consistency’ is a widely valued trait in our society, sometimes even for good reasons, so it just seems like it must be valuable for baseball players, too. But it doesn’t stand up to scrutiny.
Werth also breaks up the string of lefties in the lineup. With Burrell leaving, they needed a RH power threat behind Howard to avoid a LHP being able to breeze through 3-4-5 late in the game.
I’d expect Victorino and Ibanez to be the odd men out in the future. They will surely keep Werth over these two. An outfield of Brown Werth and Taylor is pretty good….but that’s 2 years down the line.
Werth will be a free agent after 2010. While I would love for him to re-sign, I wouldn’t be surprised if he left.
Did anyone noticed around 7 PM yesterday the main story was Jason Werth on espn.com.
Cameron your such a jinx