Comments on: Move Over, Howard and Reynolds

By: Jason B

Jason B — Mon, 01 Jun 2009 02:20:59 +0000

Brent–

Good thought, but no way Peavy would accept a trade to Texas if he wouldn’t accept one to Chicago (AL).

Brian–

Hopefully the Mets don’t fall just short of the playoffs (again) and run a prospective franchise cornerstone outta town because of “all those damned K’s” (a/k/a the Dunn treatment). Will be interesting to see the park effects at Citi over the course of a full season or three.

By: PhD Brian

PhD Brian — Sun, 31 May 2009 17:39:49 +0000

David Wright is on pace for 170 Ks this season and 13 Home runs.

By: Erin

Erin — Sun, 31 May 2009 16:28:10 +0000

What might happen if Davis were moved up in the order? Would seeing better pitches help him hit the ball more often?

I thought at the beginning of the year that Texas should’ve been batting him 5th after Hamilton and Cruz, with Blalock batting 6th, giving Davis some protection.

Also, is there a reason why his BABIP is so much lower than expected? is it the FB%?

By: Fresh Hops

Fresh Hops — Fri, 29 May 2009 05:26:15 +0000

I recall reading somewhere that scout were pretty down on Davis’s defense. UZR is not a worthwhile stat in small samples like what we have of Davis, so I think it’s is premature to call him a slick glove.

Also, comparing Cust and Davis at the plate really reminds me of why I hate recording K% as K/AB instead of K/PA. On the latter, Cust and Davis aren’t comparable at all. Cust is a player who implicitly understands his merits and faults at the plate, i.e. he’s very selective about his pitches and tries to hit the ball hard, which compensates for his lack of ability to make contact. Cust is, consequently, a very good hitter. Davis, on the other hand, must learn to be more selective about pitches he swings at or he will never be a good major league hitter. His .304 wOBA coupled with an appropriate regression of his UZR, makes him the worst 1B in baseball.

By: Kincaid

Kincaid — Fri, 29 May 2009 03:51:05 +0000

I saw Mark Reynolds strike out 3 times and homer (Mark Reynolds in a nutshell) the other night to go over 60 Ks on the season, and we were talking at the game about whether anyone else in the game could put up totals like that. Apparently so.

I’m with Donovan. That Z-Contact% is absolutely brutal. Yikes.

By: dbuff

dbuff — Fri, 29 May 2009 03:27:51 +0000

A major league first baseman with a low batting average needs one thing other than power to succeed: He needs a respectable on-base percentage. In spite of his strikeouts and low batting average a hitter like Pena maintains a respectable OBP. Davis’ .259 OBP is a killer.

By: Brent

Brent — Fri, 29 May 2009 03:23:05 +0000

Shouldn’t Texas just flip this guy for pitcher somewhere already? I think they have an extremely good core of offense (especially with Smoak in the minors) already and if they were to land a Peavy (for example) that would set up a nice rotation of Peavy, Holland, Feliz and McCarthy down the road.

By: Donovan

Donovan — Fri, 29 May 2009 03:07:53 +0000

Eric,

Thanks for this analysis. Davis is a fascinating player. As you said, he’s got three components teams would love to have: youth, tremendous power, and great defense. But those strikeout levels, and resulting OBA, are absurd.

What stood out to me from your piece is Davis’ Zone Contact ratio. That’s gotta be amongst the league worst, possibly all-time worst. Do we have any sense of whether that’s curable, or whether it’s a particular pitch which is eating him alive?

Davis appears to be a great case study; I wonder if there’s any historical comps.

Thanks again,

Donovan

By: Slurve

Slurve — Fri, 29 May 2009 00:52:03 +0000

HR or Strikeout… Two True Outcome player!