I would tend to think a combination of his vast differential in sample size vs RHP than LHP, his higher GB% vs LHP than RHP, as well as something we would have to investigate in terms of where he is pitched by both pitcher-types and where he hits his grounders.

vs L : LD – 22%, GB – 58%, FB – 20%
vs R: LD – 21%, GB 54%, FB 25%

By all means get off track! This is for any discussion regarding anything in the article. With regards to the Ichiro example, it appears that his career numbers break down like this:

vs RHP: .324/.371/.426, BABIP of .348
vs LHP: .353/.395/.438, BABIP of .376

One factor to keep in mind when looking at that is the amount of PA vs each type. Ichiro has exactly 3800 PA, as of right now, against RHP while just 1472 against LHP. His BABIP may be higher against lefties due to the vast differential in opportunities.

Another factor could be the way each type of pitcher throws to him. Ichiro is a 55.2% groundball hitter and has a swing that allows him somewhat of a head start to first base as soon as the ball comes off of the bat. Due to this he theoretically has an advantage in recording infield singles. Inside pitches are much more easily pulled, so if RHP are trying to jam him he would hit the ball on the ground towards first base or the 1B-side of second base. These grounders are much harder to beat out.

On the same note, if LHP are pitching him away and he is able to go with the ball it would be much tougher for a SS/3B to throw him out on balls either in between the positions or up the middle. David Appelman may have the RHP/LHP splits in terms of GB% and FB% which may or may not help shed light.

Again these are not concrete answers but rather some factors to keep in mind. I’m currently building my Pitch FX database from 2007 and so far in 2008 so this is something I can definitely explore in the near future.

Dave C, you’re a Mariners guy, is there anything you’ve seen that could help answer this query?

I definitely agree that this has the makings of a breakout season for McLouth if for no other reason than he will be gaining confidence. I’m trained to avoid small sample sizes, though, and so I can’t look at his April stats thus far and make any type of comparison to Pirate greats. In a couple of months if he is still posting these numbers, or numbers similar but a bit regressed, then we will have more to work with. For now, though, I think it’s premature to even say that this is a breakout season for McLouth. If he hits a severe cold spell his numbers will take significant hits, which comes with the instability of these small sample sizes.

I also don’t think we can render his previous seasons meaningless YET, if for no other reason than the small sample size issue. It’s only been 19 games. If he goes 20 for his next 100, his batting average will drop by just about 100 points, from .375 to .278.

You know the Pirates better than I do but I’m not going to put Xavier Nady or Nate McLouth in the same sentence as Pirates greats until I see a full season of great production. It’s safer to say that if they can keep their current production levels up for the entire season then they will be reminiscent of that Alou-Clemente-Stargell outfield; 19 games into April, with a notorious quick starter that has historically declined as the months progress and a hot hitter right now with a ridiculously high BABIP and increase in GB%, won’t convince me though. That’s all I’m saying.

It could happen, and I’ll be the first to buy you a Diet Dr. Pepper if it does, but I’ve watched a lot of Pirates games over the last few years (Penn State gives me Phillies and Pirates games) and I’m just very skeptical things will be vastly different for Nady and that this production level/potential for a breakout year will keep up for Nate.

That said, I have a few observations to make. The first is that it’s obvious (to me at least), that Nate McLouth is having a breakout season that basically renders his last three years almost meaningless. His current stats are (Mattie) Alou-like. Whether they’ll stay that way or settle down at some lower level is open to question. But given the “discontinuity” between this year and last, I wouldn’t conclude that he was not Mattie Alou by “blending” this year’s statistics with previous years’. Instead, I’d overweight this year’s results in the calculation.

Nady does typically get off to a strong start, but this year’s April is good even compared to his own previous starts. Again, I wouldn’t extrapolate April over a whole season except to say that I expect at least part of the “2008″ premium to carry over to most succeeding months on a like-for-like basis, so that each month this year will be stronger than their equivalents in 2006 or 2007. And if he can avoid his usual September slump, I expect his batting average to rise by twenty or more points over the previous years’. I believe Nady to be the other “sleeper” in terms of star power for the Pirates, and like him personally and professionally far better than Adam LaRoche. He’s also a better fit with the Pittsburgh culture. Management should try harder to sign Nady long-term and less hard to sign LaRoche.

As for Bay, Brian O’Neill of the Post-Gazette last year found a pretty strong comparison between Giles-Bay and Stargell over the preceding eight years (before Bay’s weak 2007). O’Neill did point out that the comparison might not continue much longer because Stargell exhibited strength well into his 30s that is uncharacteristic of ballplayers (he was a factor in the 1979 pennant race and the World Series itself at the age of 39). But it’s something to hope for with regard to Bay, at least through his 2009 contract extension.

Maybe it is a bit early in the game to be making these comparisons (analogies is more the way I think about them). But I’m not sure they’re premature even if they’re arguably a stretch. And it is the early bird that gets the worm, so if we collectively “catch on” on this site faster than the rest of the baseball world, it could be a feather in our caps.