Nelson Cruz’s Contact
When you think of the guys who swing and miss the most, a few names probably pop into everyone’s minds – Mark Reynolds, Jack Cust, Ryan Howard, Carlos Pena, Adam Dunn, and Russ Branyan have been the kings of whiffing for a while, and they are always at the top of the strikeout leaderboards.
Not surprisingly, these are the names that show up when you sort contact% from lowest to highest. Contact rate and strikeout rate are very highly correlated for obvious reasons. But they aren’t perfectly correlated, and if you look at the two leaderboards next to each other, you’ll notice something strange.
Nelson Cruz has the fifth lowest contact rate of any hitter in baseball this year, with his 67.9% rate sandwiching him right between Howard and Cust. However, his K% isn’t anywhere near those guys. In fact, despite a massive drop in contact from last year, his strikeout rate is basically unchanged.
Last year, Cruz made contact 77.8% of the time, which led to a 24.3# strikeout rate. This year, he’s contact rate is down 10 percentage points, but his strikeout rate has only increased by eight-tenths of one percent. He’s swinging through pitches he hit a year ago, but apparently not in situations with two strikes on him.
I don’t know what this means, honestly. My instincts would suggest that the decrease in contact rate is more “real” than the stability of strikeout rate, and that his K% will increase if his contact% doesn’t return to prior levels, but I haven’t studied the issue close enough to prove it. It is at least possible that Cruz has adopted an extreme shift in how he swings the bat based on the count, where his two strike swing is further away from his regular swing than any other hitter in baseball, but that seems like the kind of thing that would have been picked by up the team’s fanbase, and I haven’t seen anyone talk about this before.
So, Ranger fans, help me out here – am I missing something you guys have already figured out? Why is Nelson Cruz making contact like Jack Cust but only striking out like David Ortiz?
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Dave I’m not a Rangers fan, but just looking purely at the numbers Cruz has 7 home runs in 218 at bats when he has 2 strikes on him. Compare that to 25 home runs in 210 at bats when he has less than 2 strikes on him.
With 2 strikes: One home run every 31 at bats
With less than 2 strikes: One home run every 8.3 at bats
This would seem to indicate that he’s taking something off of his swing with two strikes unlike most of the guys on this list. However, it’s also fair to say that by virtue of him getting two strikes in the first place he is likely fooled to the point where he wouldn’t be able to hit for power. In other words these home run: at-bat rates are probably the same with every player on this list. Like you though, I’m feeling a little lazy to do that work…
Essentially that Cruz becomes a defensive / ball in play hitter with 2 strikes on him?
I can see that making sense.
Dave, I think Cruz has midPA patience. After opening his stance in accord with some Scott Servais coaching, he claims he does “see” the pitches better. And being the intensely strong power hitter that he is, he is likely to try on the first or second hittable pitch to send it off the property. (His first pitch HR rate is available I just haven’t checked to see what it is). His second pitch success for any kind of hit appears to be a one preview learning curve wherein he takes a pitch to see what he thinks the pitcher wants to throw him, then goes after pitch #2.
Then, curiously enough, he gets a kind of quiet patience. He is sometimes called out on a third or fourth pitch that is marginal, but he also has taken walks after having two strikes on him. I think opposing managers have spotted this, and at times ordered intentional walks if they are not confident their pitcher’s offspeed or breaking stuff might strike Cruz out.
A third factor we see in Arlington and on broadcasts that is not weighed in here: Crua has reverse splits. He may have more trouble with stuff coming at his belly button in the open stance than what a RHP throws parallel to his line in the box. But even soft tossing lefties (a nemesis) don’t let him see a fastball after two strikes.
Just an opinion.
Mark,
It might be more appropriate to look at his batted ball profile and HR/FB split based on count to see if he really is changing his swing. Aren’t there less home run-hittable pitches with 2 strikes on average anyway? Also, where’d you get those count splits? I’d be curious to see how those numbers look for everyone else.
He might be getting them from some other place, but B-R has them
Dave, I’m not sure where you are getting your stats but Cruz’s contact rate this season is 75%. It only drops to 68% if you use PAs instead of ABs.
Ct% = (AB-K)/AB = (429-107)/429 = 75%
The contact percent Dave is using is percent of pitches made contact with when swung at. Which is found on this site.
Sounds like he chokes up to me.