New York Mets: Top 10 Prospects
General Manager: Omar Minaya
Scouting Director: Rudy Terrasas
FanGraphs’ Top 10 Prospects:
(2009 Draft Picks/International Signees Not Included)
The Major League squad may still look a little rough around the edges but the minor league system is starting to round into shape. The first four players on the list all received consideration for the top spot, while the last six could all face big breakout seasons. The ’09 draft did not infuse much talented into the system.
1. Fernando Martinez, OF, Majors
DOB: October 1988 Bats: L Throws: R
Signed: 2005 non-drafted international free agent (Dominican Republic)
MLB ETA: Now 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 2
Although some have already, it is far too early to give up on Martinez. Just 21 years old, the Dominican outfielder just needs to have a healthy season. When he did get on the field in ’09, he hit .290/.337/.540 with an ISO of .250 as a 20 year old in triple-A. That is pretty darn impressive. He reached his ’08 total in home runs in about half the at-bats. Martinez actually had a career-high OPS of .877 in ’09. He also kept his strikeout rate below 20% at 18.8%, but it would be nice to see more patience at the plate (5.9% walk rate). At the MLB level, he was over-matched and hit just .176/.242/.275 in 95 at-bats. With a career line against southpaws of .237/.308/.392, he has some work to do against lefties. Despite that, he still has a chance to be a very good player.
2. Ike Davis, 1B, Double-A
DOB: March 1987 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2008 1st round – Arizona State University
MLB ETA: Mid-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
A lot of eyebrows were raised (including mine) when Davis hit zero homers in his ’08 debut, which spanned 239 plate appearances. He responded to the criticism in a big way in ’09 and split the year between high-A and double-A while slugging 20 homers and 31 doubles. At the higher level, the first baseman hit .309/.386/.565 in 233 at-bats. He posted a wOBA of .426 and an eye-popping ISO of .256. Davis also showed a willingness to take a walk (11.2 BB%) but his strikeouts started to get out of hand (29.0 K%). He has some work to do against lefties, as seen by his OPS split: .672 against left-handers compared to 1.000 against right-handers. One caution about Davis’ breakout season: He’s a slow-footed player that posted a BABIP of .350 at high-A and .381 in double-A, so we’re likely to see his batting average come down in 2010, especially if the strikeout rate remains high.
3. Jenrry Mejia, RHP, High-A
DOB: October 1989 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2007 non-drafted international free agent (Dominican Republic)
MLB ETA: Late-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 90-96 mph fastball, curveball, change-up
Mejia did not turn 20 until after the season ended and he reached double-A as a teenager, which says a lot about his potential. The right-hander began the year in high-A where he posted a FIP of 2.52 and allowed 41 hits in 50.1 innings. He showed good control with a walk rate of 2.86, but that jumped to 4.67 BB/9 in 44.1 double-A innings. His strikeout rate of 7.87 also increased with the promotion, though, to 9.54 K/9. Mejia allowed just two home runs on the season, thanks to a ground-ball rate just shy of 60%, which is outstanding for a flame-thrower. He dominated left-handed batters, as seen by his 10.71 K/9 rate against them, and they hit just .247 against Mejia despite a .354 BABIP. After making just 19 starts in 2009, the talented youngster should open 2010 back in double-A but he could reach the Majors by the end of the season, if needed.
4. Wilmer Flores, SS, Low-A
DOB: August 1991 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2007 non-drafted international free agent (Venezuela)
MLB ETA: Mid-2012 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Another young player, Flores is just 18 years old and he spent much of the year playing in low-A ball at the age of 17. Overall, he had a ‘foundation year’ with a line of .264/.305/.332 in 488 at-bats. His BABIP was just .305 so we can expect to see a bump in that in the future even though he lacks blazing speed. Flores has raw power, but he posted an ISO of just .068. He needs to show more patience at the plate after posting a walk rate of just 4.3% but he handled the bat well and struck out just 14.8% of the time. Because he profiles as a third baseman down the line, Flores will need to focus on getting stronger and driving the ball more (12.5 LD%) in 2010. He’ll likely be pushed up to high-A this coming year.
5. Jonathon Niese, LHP, Majors
DOB: October 1986 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2005 7th round – Ohio HS
MLB ETA: Now 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 2
Repertoire: 88-92 mph fastball, cutter, curveball, change-up
Many Mets were cursed by injuries in ’09 and Niese was one of them. A torn hamstring tendon ended his season prematurely in August after he had made just five MLB starts. Despite that fact, Niese left a solid impression after posting a 3.25 FIP in 25.2 innings. His most effective pitch was a newly-honed cutter. Earlier in the season, the southpaw showed his MLB-readiness by posting a 3.38 FIP and 55% ground-ball rate in 94.1 triple-A innings, while also showing good control with a walk rate of 2.48 BB/9. Niese should be healthy and ready to go in spring training so he has a good shot at winning a spot in the MLB starting rotation.
6. Brad Holt, RHP, Double-A
DOB: October 1986 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2008 supplemental 1st round – University of North Carolina – Wilmington
MLB ETA: Late-2010 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 89-94 mph fastball, curveball, splitter
Holt had two distinct seasons in ’09. After a dominating pro debut, he opened ’09 by posting a 3.18 FIP in nine high-A starts. He also posted a strikeout rate of 11.22 and showed solid control (2.70 BB/9). Moved up to double-A, though, Holt struggled with a 5.01 FIP (6.21 ERA) and allowed 58 hits in 58.0 innings, despite a BABIP of just .292. His walk rate rose to 3.57 BB/9 and his strikeout rate plummeted to 6.98 K/9. He also struggled with the long ball (1.40 HR/9), and his ground-ball rate on the season was poor at 38%. Holt, 23, will certainly return to double-A in 2010 and look to conquer the league in his second try.
7. Ruben Tejada, SS, Double-A
DOB: September 1989 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2006 non-drafted international free agent (Panama)
MLB ETA: Mid-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
The organization has been extremely aggressive with the slick-fielding shortstop. Despite hitting just .229/.293/.296 in high-A in ’08, the Mets promoted Tejada to double-A in ’09 and he hit .289/.351/.381 in 488 at-bats. His wOBA jumped from .277 in ’08 to .346 in ’09. He also showed improved base running and was successful in 19 of his 22 attempts. Tejada is a free swinger, who posted a walk rate of 7.0% but struck out just 12.1% of the time. He should move up to triple-A in ’09 but he’s currently blocked by incumbent shortstop Jose Reyes. Luckily for Tejada, the veteran player was injury-prone in ’09. The youngster could also slide over to second base.
8. Josh Thole, C, Triple-A
DOB: October 1986 Bats: L Throws: R
Signed: 2005 13th round – Illinois HS
MLB ETA: Now 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 3
This converted catcher has his share of doubters, but he’s done nothing but hit over the past two seasons with a batting average above .300. He even received a 17-game trial in the Majors at the end of the season and hit .321/.356/.396 in 53 at-bats. At double-A, Thole hit .328/.395/.422 in 384 at-bats. The left-handed hitter has walked more than he struck out for three straight seasons and posted a BB/K at double-A of 1.24. He doesn’t need to be platooned, as he actually has a better career batting average against southpaws (.317 vs .284). On the down side, Thole has little power and posted an ISO of .094 in the minors and .075 at the MLB level. Defensively, he’s still learning the position but he improved his throwing in ’09 and nabbed 30% of runner trying to steal.
9. Kirk Nieuwenhuis, OF, Double-A
DOB: August 1987 Bats: L Throws: R
Signed: 2008 3rd round – Azusa Pacific University
MLB ETA: Mid-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Nieuwenhuis’ first full pro season was a success, as he hit .274/.357/.467 in 482 high-A at-bats, while also playing a solid center field. The speedy player also stole 16 bases in 20 attempts and showed surprising power with an ISO of .193. His strikeout rate was high at 28.1% but he offset that a bit with a solid walk rate at 11.1%. He has work to do against southpaws after hitting just .235/.294/.348. The outfielder received an eight-game trial in double-A and he should head back there in 2010.
10. Jeurys Familia, RHP, Low-A
DOB: October 1989 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2007 non-drafted international free agent (Dominican Republic)
MLB ETA: Late-2012 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 88-94 mph fastball, curveball, change-up
Familia is a hard-throwing right-hander who is still quite raw. However, despite being basically a one-pitch pitcher in ’09 (the fastball), he more than held his own in low-A ball at the age of 19. In 134.0 innings, he allowed just 109 hits, thanks in part to a .283 BABIP. He showed good control for his age with a walk rate of 3.09 BB/9 and his strikeout rate was modest at 7.32 K/9. His ground-ball rate was just shy of 50% at 48.8%. Familia did not allow a home run to a left-handed hitter all year (217 batters) but his strikeout rate was just 4.83 K/9 against them. If Familia can continue to grow as a pitcher, he could be a real breakout candidate in 2010.
Up Next: The Baltimore Orioles
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OF Fernando Martinez is Dominican.
Ummm not a bad list, but where is Reese Havens, i think if u omit Tejada and replace him with Havens it would be much more reasonable. Must be a brain fart cuz Havens is top 5 in my books.
Yeah, I think it’s a big mistake to omit Havens.
Agreed. He’s probably the starting 2B in 2011.
I had the same top six in my last back in September at THT. But I agree, I think you need Reese Havens here (especially over Tejada).
Nice list. I could see F-Mart, Niese and Thole helping out the Mets this season. I’m most excited to see how Mejia fares next season.
F-Mart is Dominican, and I don’t understand how Havens is not on this list, thats a terrible omission.
I think FMart and Thole have ETAs of 2011, effectively. The Mets need both of them to get time in AAA; FMart to regain confidence/value, and Thole to improve as a catcher.
the number of KKK mets fans is incrising every day
Havens is in the 11-12 range. He doesn’t have a position and he’s hitting .247 over his two-year career.
I regret the Martinez hiccup and will have that corrected.
Check Havens’ BABIP and luck adjusted stats. And he has a position, 2b.
Kylen Allen will be in the Mets top 5 next year.
Youre really judging Havens by his Batting Average? Come on Marc, you should know better than that, his BABIP was .275 last year, which is terrible. Reese can also take a walk or two and had a .361 OBP even with a .247 average. If Havens only plays average Defense at second base his bat will make him a solid regular, as he can hit for power and draw a walk.
Can someone please explain to me why the mets signed Blanco, Coste and are pursuing Molina? What is wrong with putting Thole and Santos out there and using the money to fill blatant holes that still exist, like 1b, rf (well, they think they are set) and a high risk, high reward starting pitcher, most of whom are already signed.
Metsfan,
The mets are loading up on catchers, but it’s a position that tends to be injury prone, so it’s not a terrible idea to carry an extra 1 or 2.
My take is that the mets aren’t crazy about Santos. If they sign Molina then they may shop Santos.
As it stands right now, they have Santos/Blanco on the opening day Roster. Coste is catcher #3 and Thole #4. That’s not too many at all.
If they sign Molina, then it’s a little crowded, and Santos probably starts in AAA if he’s not moved. (I’m not crystal clear on Santos’ options)
Coste is a minor league signing / injury callup guy and that was a good signing. Guy’s like that are useful. I think the mets plan on using him to mentor Thole.
I think Blanco was a good signing too because Santana likes him and because he’s a good defensive catcher (better than Santos). Looking at his numbers, Santos looks like an adaquate catcher, but I don’t think the mets liked his D and his minor league stats suggest that his hitting could take a turn for the worse next year.
On Molina – fan feelings are mixed and some say that 2/12 is overpaying, but he brings something to the plate and I think he’d improve the mets offense a bit.
Finally on Thole, the mets want to give him a full year in AAA. Nothing wrong with giving prospects time to develop, especially since Thole is still learning the position. Everyone I’ve talked to says it’s smart to give Thole a year in AAA.
Hope that wasn’t too long, but, I actually like the mets catcher signings so far. Cheap signings / added depth. On Molina? I’ll let you know when it happens.
Thole is not ready to catch in the major leagues yet. His bat is okay, but it isn’t good enough to justify sacrificing defense at such an important position to get him in the lineup. And Coste, Santos and Blanco are back-ups at best.
a 240 hitter in Single A probably doesn’t belong on a top ten list. He has time to develop but to project him a ML player in 2011much less a starter is a little optimistic.
Definitely has a low BABIP, which is the only reason why he gets consideration for the 11-12 range, and isn’t ranked in the 15-20 range. I’d like to see him at second a little longer before I agree that he can stick as the everyday guy at the keystone in the Majors. Interesting player to watch but not Top 10 in my opionion (which is actually a good thing for the system, by the way… it has some depth).
He had 97 PA in 2008 and his low average from this past year was a result of a poor .275 BABIP.
His plate discipline and power are very good for a middle infield prospect. Definitely a top 10 guy in my eyes, but agree to disagree I guess.
Allen and Havens are both better prospects than Tejada, who projects more as a utility infielder.
But it is nice to not have to reach to find enough guys to fill out a top 10 for a change.
I like Havens with the walks and power, but we don’t know quite how flukey the low babip is yet. Tejada wOBA’d near .350 at AA at 19, and he is 3 years younger than Havens. And Tejada can handle ss. He doesn’t have much power, but he still might end up an above average ss. I can understand preferring Havens, but it isn’t cut and dried.
isnt it hard to believe fmart is only 21 we have been talking about this guy for years it feels like. at 21 no one should give up on a guy who clearly has talent, just needs to stay healthy, stay confident and have a dominant year , and you will see him jump to the top of the overall prospect list. on a totally different front i saw a rumor floated of a trade proposal king felix for david wright. i think believe it or not i would do it. felix is still only 23, wright has shown an uncanny ability to fail in the clutch for two or three seasons, and i thnk if we got felix behind santana, sign adrian beltre, wed be a better team then we are now. i want to love david wright,and i know hes a guy who had bad year as far as power and there are many reasons fo it, but its hitting in the clutch that kills me, he had a lot less on his mind in his first two years when he was mr clutch, now hes a guy who in my gut i dont like seeing up there in a big spot , i swear there were many times id rather have seen omir santos up there or even that other heavy weight back up catcher we had then wright . i think he puts so much presssure on himself and i dont know if that will change, while throwing santana and felix out there would be scary. it would be hard to pull the trigger and the mets would never do it, hes there poster boy but id have to say if it were my call i make the deal.
A buddy of mine played in venezuela with Thole this winter. He says Thole is coming around on D. I am completely for giving him one more year in the minors to work behind the plate and develop his power. My buddy says he is something special, and as a Met fan I will certainly enjoy him. He says his plate dicipline with two strikes is better than anyone he has ever seen. I say sign Molina if you’re so inclined, but bring Thole up in 2011 to learn. Get him set up as someone’s personal catcher at the least, or platoon them.
Mike, Thanks for your post, it is great to hear positives about Josh from people in the business. I too liked alot of what I saw in September and was thrilled to see him do so well with the stick in Venezuela. One thing I really hope is that he not get rushed out of need like so many other Met prospects have. He has only 2 years experience behind the plate and I’d love it if he came up for good when he is ready behind the plate too. Thanks for the update. Much appreciated
“Although some have already, it is far too early to give up on Martinez. Just 21 years old, the Dominican outfielder just needs to have a healthy season.”
And all I need to fly is a pair of wings. Any day now…
Congratulations! You have just won the Pointless Post Award.
Marc, there is some good analysis here, but there is one sentence about Fernando Martinez that just doesn’t make sense:
“At the MLB level, he was over-matched and hit just .176/.242/.275 in 95 at-bats.”
Martinez had a .197 BABIP, and struck out just 15% of the time. He was anything but overmatched, unless you count luck as one of his opponents.