Comments on: Nick The Unlucky Stick

By: Brian Jennings

Brian Jennings — Wed, 30 Apr 2008 16:31:17 +0000

I was curious so I looked into this a little more. Using BABIP minus LD% as a measure of luck (negative values being unlucky), the most unlucky batter thus far (Min 50 PA) has been Tony Pena – LD%: 27.5%; BABIP: .185; Difference: -.090. Nick Johnson was 4th and Robinson Cano was 7th most unlucky.

On the flip side, assuming we can call a player lucky for having a large, positive value of BABIP minus LD%, the luckiest player thus far has been
Fred Lewis – LD%: 14.5%; BABIP: .415; Difference: +.273.

It’s amazing how Pena is hitting line drives almost twice as much as Lewis, yet his BABIP is 215 points lower!

By: Choska

Choska — Wed, 30 Apr 2008 04:32:20 +0000

You ROCK.

I picked up Johnson today. Tonight he goes 2 for 4 with an HR.

Anyone else we should be targeting? I need saves and HRs :-)

By: Aaron

Aaron — Tue, 29 Apr 2008 22:24:31 +0000

Yes. Specifically, Manny Acta is smart enough to realize this.

By: Mariner Fan in Colorado Exile

Mariner Fan in Colorado Exile — Tue, 29 Apr 2008 18:31:22 +0000

Are the Nationals a smart enough organization to realize what’s happening here?

By: Jason

Jason — Tue, 29 Apr 2008 17:39:06 +0000

So maybe Cano is a guy who’s usually going post a higher than normal BABIP, even if his LD% would say otherwise. Very interesting.

By: David Appelman

David Appelman — Tue, 29 Apr 2008 17:17:53 +0000

There are batters who regularly exceed league average BABIP. Batters usually find their very own average BABIP and hover around that.

BABIP is less of a luck things for batters, but looking at a batters career BABIP vs his season BABIP is a good way to tell if he’s been lucky or unlucky.

By: Jason

Jason — Tue, 29 Apr 2008 16:32:09 +0000

Well, are there players who regularly exceed their BABIP numbers? Maybe there are some underlying skills there? Or are some players historically lucky?

By: Brian Jennings

Brian Jennings — Tue, 29 Apr 2008 15:57:20 +0000

Great post. As a huge Yankees fan, I’ve been wondering what the deal is with Robinson Cano and his .153 batting average. It seems he is in a similar situation as Nick Johnson. His LD% is 17.4 %, but his BABIP is only .165.

However, I guess Cano had this coming as he far exceeded his BABIP expectations the past two years:

2006: LD% – 19.9% BABIP – .363
2007: LD% – 16.9% BABIP – .331

By: Greg Johnson

Greg Johnson — Tue, 29 Apr 2008 15:12:23 +0000

What do you think of Cust then with this stat in mind? He’s even farther out on the edge of the PrOPS than Johnson…

By: Matt Williams

Matt Williams — Tue, 29 Apr 2008 13:52:37 +0000

I’ve been waiting for this.

I’ve got Johnson in a very deep 15×15 league and was so excited about how late I got him.

I come back to FanGraphs often to be sure that my eyes aren’t fooling me, because I see no reason he shouldn’t be hitting over .300 with doubles galore (my league counts doubles).

I really have never considered actually dropping him, but thanks for the extra bit of encouragement.