NL MVP Dropoffs
While I firmly believe the comments made by Jimmy Rollins towards Philadelphia fans was a non-story, and, well, true, the fact is that he is having a very poor followup to his 2007 MVP campaign. Granted, some will argue that he should not have won the award in the first place, but he did, and his performance with the bat this year has been anything but award-worthy. Now, in the field, he has been a +8 shortstop this year to go along with his +7 last year and +12 in 2006. The issue, however, is that the perceived effectiveness of a player is generally born out of his offensive performance and production in timely situations.
In other words, WPA is a pretty good indicator of the MVP award, because voters aren’t going to stop and think about what would have happened if every plate appearance just counted as one (WPA/LI). They look at overall numbers, the clutchiness, and more like-factors. With that in mind, and with Rollins’ offensive struggles this year, I took a look at the MVP winners over the last twenty years (1988-2007), along with their WPAs in both the award year and the next year. The ultimate goal being to see if anyone else has had such a drastic perceived drop in effectiveness.
Year NAME WPA1 WPA2 WPA-Drop 1988 Kirk Gibson 5.00 0.87 -4.13 1989 Kevin Mitchell 6.91 2.86 -4.05 1990 Barry Bonds 5.63 7.99 2.36 1991 Terry Pendleton 3.57 4.81 1.24 1992 Barry Bonds 5.92 7.79 1.87 1993 Barry Bonds 7.79 4.82 -2.97 1994 Jeff Bagwell 5.79 4.70 -1.09 1995 Barry Larkin 3.96 3.54 -0.42 1996 Ken Caminiti 6.10 4.38 -1.72 1997 Larry Walker 6.65 2.63 -4.02 1998 Sammy Sosa 6.09 4.11 -1.98 1999 Chipper Jones 6.36 2.16 -4.20 2000 Jeff Kent 4.85 1.21 -3.64 2001 Barry Bonds 11.63 10.57 -1.06 2002 Barry Bonds 10.57 8.36 -2.21 2003 Barry Bonds 8.36 12.63 4.27 2004 Barry Bonds 12.63 0.26 -12.37 2005 Albert Pujols 4.15 9.57 5.42 2006 Ryan Howard 8.10 3.11 -4.99 2007 Jimmy Rollins 2.69 0.33 -2.36
Now, Gibson in 1989 and Bonds in 2005 were both injured and missed significant time, so their second year WPA numbers should be disregarded. Other than that, though, Rollins is not alone in his perceived dropoff. In fact, his dropoff from last year to right now is actually less than some others on this list. What also needs to be taken into account is how his WPA in the MVP year is the lowest of anyone in the last twenty years—so there is much less to drop off from—but he has not been the worst in terms of WPA differential between the award year and the year after. His .747 OPS is disappointing, but he has been solid in the field, and despite the criticism pointed towards him with the hustle or lack of puncuality, the situation could be much worse.
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Does that WPA make Rollins the worst MVP ever? What a joke that Rollins has as many MVP awards as Pujols.
I wouldn’t say ‘ever’ unless I saw everyone ever awarded the MVP and their numbers. In the last twenty years, he posted the lowest WPA, so based on performance relative to when that performance occurred, he is the worst in this span. Another way to look at it would be to see how many players who theoretically had a shot at the award, finished with higher WPAs.
Remember that the award-voters tend to vote for guys on playoff teams or teams in contention, and it’s largely a story-based award. For that reason, a guy like David Wright last year, despite being very deserving of such an award, theoretically had no shot based on how the season ended.
I don’t think it’s a joke he has as many as Pujols, however, because it’s Barry Bonds’ fault Pujols doesn’t have more. If Rollins didn’t win it last year, it’s not like Pujols would have – Holliday would have.
Eric – I know that Pujols would not have won last year (he was, however more deserving than Rollins), but the joke is that in Pujols worst year (his rookie year) his WPA was 4.03. In Rollins career year he manages a 2.69 and is just over 5 WPA for his career. It is a joke that he got the MVP last year and it is a joke that he is on par with Pujols in any category, even if it is the farce that the MVP “award” has become.
Well, duh. I’m not saying in any way, shape or form that Rollins is along the same lines as Pujols. Albert is going to be, at career’s end, one of the best of all time (if he isn’t already there). What I’m saying is that there shouldn’t be any “joke” because he should have won several awards by now. The fact that he hasn’t is a shame, but he should not be in the position where he and Rollins share the same number of awards…. which is exactly why I wrote the post last week that we should’t care who wins awards because we know they mean nothing towards the evaluation of a player.
Erik – Sorry to get you fired up. It just bothers me when a player as undeserving as Rollins wins such a major award. Meanwhile someone like Pujols gets jobbed out his rightful awards due to PED users (Bonds) and one-trick ponies (Howard).
It’s called affirmative action and it’s sickening. The fact that no white American has won the award since 2000 is no coincidence. Compare this to pre-1990 when the award was evenly distributed between whites and coloreds and you’ll see.
I hope that post was a joke Jay. Bonds, based on his numbers, deserved every MVP, as did Pujols. I mean, your post has to be a joke. I am not a regular on here, so maybe I missed something….but “coloreds”…are you serious?
Yes, I as well hope it was a joke. There have been some weird comments here lately and I’m hoping it stops.
I only meant colored as a way to separate whites from non-whites. Of course Bonds deserved them all, but even after you remove Bonds, only 11 of the past 35 winners dating back to 1987 have been white whereas from 1960 to 1986, 31 of the 55 winners were white. It doesn’t take a degree in mathematics to spot the trend, and Rollins is only the latest manifestation of this. There was not one but four white position players far more deserving of the award than Rollins yet somehow he came out ahead of all of them. It’s a disturbing trend and one I never thought I’d see in our nation’s pastime.
I tried typing seven different responses to this, but deleted each one. I’m honestly speechless here. At this point I would prefer nobody respond to the above comment and focus more on the article’s content.
When they gave Morneau the MVP, they were clearly pandering to the French-Canadians.
I’m glad somebody else noticed this.
I wonder how much of the dropoff is due to IBB or unintentional IBBs? Maybe after the player got more “press” teams started to pitch to him less in big situations.
i knew rollins didn’t even have that great of a season last year…but a WPA of just over 2 wins the MVP? god i hate sportswriters