NLDS Coverage: Don’t Blame Holliday
You’ve all seen the highlight by now. With two out in the ninth inning, James Loney lined a ball right at Matt Holliday. If he catches the ball, the Cardinals tie the series with a 2-1 win in game two. But he didn’t catch the ball. It hit him in the stomach, bounced to the ground, and the comeback was on. A few batters later, the Cardinals lose, and Matt Holliday is the obvious candidate for blame.
But I’d suggest that Cardinal fans go easy on the poor guy. There’s plenty of blame to go around, and Holliday’s not the one most at fault for the loss.
Yes, if Holliday catches the ball, the game is over. But even after the drop, the Cardinals still had an 87% chance of winning the game. Ryan Franklin then took that 87% percent probability and flushed it down the toilet. Walk, single, walk, single, ballgame. Holliday put one guy on base. Franklin put four guys on base. It takes some kind of perverse twisting of the facts to think that Holliday was more responsible for the loss than Franklin.
Or, if we want to look at earlier lost opportunities, how about Brendan Ryan? Three times he came up with a runner on second base, where a base hit would have scored a run that obviously would have been fairly crucial by the ninth inning. He grounded out, struck out, and flyout. No runs would score.
And, let’s not forget that the Cardinals first run of the game came on a home run by Holliday. Had Holliday hit like the rest of his teammates, the Cardinals would never have had a game to lose in the first place.
It’s easy to say that if he would have caught the ball, the team would have won. While true, it also ignores everything that went before and after that play. Matt Holliday didn’t lose the game for the Cardinals – it was a team effort.
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Cardinals fans HAVE to read this piece.
I don’t understand how they can hate the reason that they made it to the playoffs in the first place.
Holliday provided the Cards w/ 2.6 WAR since arriving 2 months ago — a great total. But the Cards won the division by 7 or 8 games. Albert Pujols and the great starting pitching — about 25 WAR — are the reasons the Cards are in the playoffs. They’re not there b/c of Matt Holliday. All he did was increase the cushion.
“I don’t understand how they can hate the reason that they made it to the playoffs in the first place.”
Are you effing kidding me??
Well played, sir.
Nobody hates Holliday, we’re just rather peeved he dropped the ball that would have ended the game.
Yes, Cards fans are happy he helped get the team to the playoffs.
But how on Earth could any reasonable person not be just a hair peeved that the guy, you know, botched an easy play that would have ended the game?
Of course Franklin is more at blame… but Holliday simply blew that one.
Nothing exists in a vacuum. Good post.
Unfortunately, logic won’t help here. See the case of Steve Bartman for proof, and Bartman didn’t even put a man on base, as it was a foul ball, nor would that out have ended the game, as there was only one out. Oh, and it was only the 8th inning, so the game wouldn’t have even been over. Come to think of it, why is Bartman so vilified anyways?
Because Alou swears up and down the could have caught that ball. Oh, and Cubs fans love self-loathing, it seems, or sadomasochism. Every Tuesday on ESPN they’re doing these one hour sports documentaries, last Tuesday it was on Wanye Gretzky getting traded and I saw that they are doing one on Bartman soon. Looks really good.
b/c it’s easier to blame a helpless fan than to blame the players you idolize for failing to turn a routing DP one batter later.
one is “bad luck”, the other is “God, my team sucks”
Alo has said numerous times he wouldn’t have caught the ball…
Would the rest of of America and especially Card-nation read this, please!?!?!
As a Cardinals fan I concur, it was definitely a team effort.
You can also look back on Rasmus getting thrown out at third after his double (with 0 outs being the killer). Who knows how things play out if he stays at second. It appears that the two key contributors to the offensive output, also made costly mistakes.
Franklin is another story entirely…
I think it’s an expectancy issue.
(Honest) Fans expect Franklin to screw up, or at least walk a tightrope.
I don’t think any fan expected Holliday to blow a catch.
Ok you guys have GOTTA give me that Holliday is a probable juice. Cmon, he has all of the defining physical characteristics–jutting jaw, portruding head, disproprtionately large and veiny forearms. I SMELL DECA-DURBOLIN
You’re a one-trick pony and your act is getting old. At least try harder to be entertaining.
Excellent insight, Dave. The only reason that Holliday is most heavily blamed for the Cardinals’ loss is because it was a fly ball that he would’ve made 99% of the time into an out. While closers spontaneously combusting (and allowing 4 consecutive baserunners) are also a rarity, it is not quite as rare as Holliday missing a easy fly ball. That’s probably why he’s getting blamed at the first place.
Nonetheless, I totally agree that Holliday is getting way too much criticism for this issue. Sometimes the whole “What if?” mindset just gets into the average fan’s brain too much.
Yep, completely agreed. Not sure if it’s already been talked about here, but Rasmus pushing the issue by trying to take 3rd with nobody out just wasn’t necessary. Who knows if he scores in that inning if he holds at 2nd base, but still the point is that Holliday’s missed catch wasn’t the only out given away by the Cards.
Well said… key point in the game (nobody out i think?). Bad base running mistake. Loney should get some credit for making a heads up (and tough) play.
Not a Cardinals fan, but I have to disagree somewhat. If Holliday catches the ball the game is over, everything that happens after an “easy” third out does not matter when trying to place the blame on Franklin. Franklin got the third out, you cannot expect a pitcher to go through an inning unscathed whether that be giving up singles on balls put into play, or even walking or hitting a batter. The game should’ve been over! 100% win expectancy if Holliday catches that fairly routine ball. Therefore, instead of a 100-87=13% drop in WE because of Holliday, it really should be a 100-0=100% drop in WE because of him
vr, Xei
All close losses are team losses, but I tend to agree here. Pitchers are going to give up runs..but that was the third out of a playoff game. he lost it in the lights. I don’t go too hard on Holliday. Players make errors. This is kinda like Cqstillo mising tha pop-up. Only this game meant something. And it probably rattled Franklin. Respect to Blake, too. Once he got that second strike and was in the hole on what I thought was a poor check swing call, he fouled off a high strike and managed to work a walk. When Holliday made the error, at that moment in time he is the only person responsible for the outcome of that play. Franklin is just one guy, and the hitters also have an effect on the outcome at that point. They managed to do their jobs. Hey, and one of them was Ronnie “Torre is F’ing Up By Benching Hudson” Belliard.
except this isn’t really anything like the Castillo popup. the game ended on that play. there was absolutely nothing K-Rod could do about it.
after this play, the pitcher had FOUR more chances to get one out but couldn’t.
Steve, yeah, I said kinda likem, but you are right…however, as i aid later, franklin isn’t the only actor at that point. Hitters have some effect, fielders too, luck. Blake fouled of a good 2 strike pitch. Belliard and Loretta hit singles, folks here make it like if it ain’t a homer or walk it’s luck, so how is that Franklin’s fault. Sure, he didn’t strike them out, but he isn’t a huge K guy anyway. he relies on his fielders. And when holliday messed up it was just him and the ball, no one else involved at that point.
I get dave’s point, but I think that’s a pretty big time to flub a flyball, and more of an “abnormal” occurence than a coupla walks and a coupla singles. I dunno, Schiraldi is just as guilty as Bucjkner, right? :)
I love WPA but one of the areas in which it is weak is in dealing with stuff like this. Matt Holliday is recorded as having a .011 WPA for yesterday’s game but, while he’s not totally responsible for yesterday’s loss, he is responsible for droppng that fly ball. He should be deducted .133 (bringing his total to minus .122) for dropping the fly ball. Instead, Franklin is deducted the .133 b/c he allowed the ball to be hit in the first place. While Franklin should be held responsible for the subsequent walks and hits (including hits by stalwarts Ron Belliard and Mark Loretta), he shouldn’t be held responsible b/c Holliday dropped that ball.
Franklin screwed up by not striking the guy out. :)
Franklin gets a -.9 WPA.
Wowsers.
Most of these “whose fault is it?” things are all timing. If Holliday does the same thing in the third inning, most fans would blame the pitcher or Colby Rasmus’ awful baserunning.
If he did it in the thrid inning, we don’t know what Wainwright would have necessarily done, and Franklin may never have been in the game.
It was the last out of the game, which may be why he blew it, who knows. Enough counter-factuals.
Maybe someone should inform LaRussa he’s got the winningest pitcher in postseason history collecting dust on the sidelines while his overachieving ‘closer’ falls apart.
Does being the “winningest pitcher in postseason history” somehow have an impact on that player’s current skill-set or ability?
Yes, you’re right – I should have called attention to his 9.5 K/9 and 1.184 WHIP he’s posted in 38 innings since joining the club.
If there was ever a situation that called for a strikeout pitcher with playoff experience, this was it.
And to clarify, there are some legitimate arguments to use Smoltz there. But being the “winningest pitcher is postseason history” is not one of them.
by this same logic, someone should bring back Bernie Williams!!
I’d take Bernie on my bench over Troy effing Glaus.
He’s done absolutely nothing in 2009 to warrant a spot on a postseason roster. Meanwhile Allen Craig is inexplicably kept off the 40-man when he torched PCL pitching in the 2nd half of the year.
Yeah, while i know pitchers are supposed to be robots, even in little league if you have a fielder blow a key play for you on the mound it becomes easy to get riled up.
You could argue that major leaguers are supposed to be more mature, but surely the adrenaline, the body chemistry, the emotions, the fact that the crowd gets into the game has some impact. I know there’s no such thing as clutch, but there surely can be anti-clutch, when a really big moment makes someone implode irrevocably (see Ankiel as a pitcher). In fact, if the error statistic were a better measure, I’d bet a substantial sum of money that if you took ALL games where an error was committed with otherwise empty bases and 2 outs, the odds of that runner scoring are… oh, 10% higher than the default situation with a runner on first and 2 outs.
or if you wanted to bet, say $5 per percentage point difference, and you get a 5 point spread.
Anyway, so yeah. That error was more than 13% surely.
I still agree that Franklin is probably a mental midget more than most pitchers, and deserves some of the blame and if anything seems like the type thats more likely to implode, but to expect the team to still play at their usual level after such an error is shockingly naive.
But his babip against was 1.000 on those 2 singles….bad luck. :)
Is this sarcasm?
Regardless of the error Franklin has pitched like this for the past month or so. He had blown 4 of 5 opportunities or something ridiculous like that heading into the postseason. Usually you’ll save more than that just by virtue of a little luck if you get those chances and you’re worth anything as a pitcher but he can’t get the ball over the plate and the only reason he was solid in the first half was his amazing control.
If Franklin gets anywhere near a high leverage situation after this it’ll be one of the few times I’ll really trash LaRussa’s decision making.
Is it just me or is Joe Torre the luckiest manager of all time?
Yeah, he was really lucky to see that Hudson was hurt and gassed and Belliard should play. He was lucky to go with his closer down a run in the 8th. He was lucky to have lost those playoff/world series to the Angels, Marlins, Tigers, Red Sox…
Just kidding around here. Joe is lucky in the sense that he has managed some very talented wealthy franchises, no doubt.
Hrm, three mentions of Rasmus already? Someone at Viva El Birdos reviewed and reported that Jose Oquendo (the third base coach) waved him around to third. And if it weren’t for an heroic leaping-off-the-mound cutoff interception he would have easily been safe, too – runner on third with one out.
But, in the spirit of the OP, I’ll armchair some more blame and fault Tony LaRussa for not going with John Smoltz out of the bullpen after the kitchen caught on fire and we needed one (1) out. I think he could have handled the likes of Ronnie Belliard, and even if he came in after the tie he’d still be ready to pitch five innings.
If Oquendo was waving him around then yeah I’ll temper my criticism of Rasmus for getting thrown out. However, with the pitcher coming up next (i.e. bunting), and 0 outs, it’s still a risk likely not worth taking.
Jesus Steve, you can’t blame Rasmus for that play. He got the RBI double, which most players wouldn’t have had. His WPA for that play was .130.
Yeah I probably haven’t phrased myself very well in my two posts here. Clearly he deserves a ton of credit there for getting the double in the first place.
I guess I was more or less agreeing with Dave that it was a culmination of events that led to the Cards losing the game, one of which was Colby getting thrown out at third. Clearly, from a bookkeeping perspective, his positives (the double) way outweigh the negative (getting thrown out at 3rd) which may or may not have been his fault.
Further clarification…. Rasmus is one of the players that would take the LEAST blame for the loss in my mind
I would say the majority of Major Leaguers have had an RBI double…. A major leaguer (in a playoff game) should not make fundamental mistakes… granted, it sucks if his thirdbase coach was waving him on… I guess they are human too.
It’s much more common a relief pitcher give up 4 runners in an inning than an outfielder dropping a routine flyball.
yup.
“Yes, if Holliday catches the ball, the game is over.”
But he’s not to blame?
Just in: Adam Wainwright wants to ban white towels, white t-shirts, and white hats at all future away games.
Wainwright comes off looking like a whiny bitch.
He’s been dominant each of his last 2 starts and seen his team inexplicably piss both games away – costing him his 20th regular season win, and possibly a chance at another World Series
Give the guy a break…
I think he’s just trying to protect Holliday with the rally towel stuff.
clearly, he should have said “i hate matt holliday. my teammate sucks and he cost us the game.”
No, Holliday shouldn’t get all the blame, just some of it. That’s one of the ideas I live by… give people the proper amount of blame and praise. Holliday was responsible for half the runs the Cardinals scored last night, but he also made a horrible, critical error on a play that would have ended the game. It wasn’t his fault Franklin fell apart, but that does not excuse the error either.
God this site is on the $.
I hope the Cards turn it around, I really do.
As a Mariners fan, I say we should never pass up an opportunity to kick Ryan Franklin.
“Holliday’s not the one most at fault for the loss”
Wow. When you guys have a mancrush on a guy they can do absolutely no wrong.
You failed to list what percentage of the time a team wins when the team is leading with two outs in the ninth inning and the batter hits a ball that Timmy Lupus would have caught.
Franklin was brough in to get two outs, on the second Matty gagged and all hell broke loose.
ha ha ha mancrush hah, i love it….
dave cameron’s mancrush on holliday is fascinating.. the dude catches the ball and the ball game is over..
we do not need bill james, tango, WAR, RCAA, RC25, RC27, VORP to teach us that *simple* fact,
Holliday gets -1 (lost a playoff game) WAR for this one…
The biggest failure in this series that I saw was LaRussa’s stubborn insistence that Piniero and Franklin were legitimate pitchers, and not the beneficiaries of extraordinary luck in the first half of the season. That LaRussa – who supposedly pays a lot of attention to statistics – couldn’t recognize that extraordinary luck, and used those pitchers accordingly, is the biggest failure here.
That is retarded. Cardinals pitching had nothing to do with them scoring only five runs total in the series. And who would you have used to start game three? If you start Smoltz he’s not going more than 5 innings, which would mean Piniero comes in anyway. Couldn’t you also argue that Franklin was just unlucky in the 9th? His BABIP was 1.000 after all.
TLR did lots of dumb things, like not pinch-hitting for Carp in the 6th when there were runners in scoring position and two outs.
Their biggest failure was the Cardinals total inability to hit, and then running the bases terribly when they were on.
The ball Holliday dropped was not routine. Yes it should have been an out, but a sinking line drive hit right at you is about the most difficult catch an outfielder has to make. Yes, even more difficult than the balls they have to rundown. It’s kind of like a one hop smash right at a third baseman… yes a play a major leaguer should make, but not the proverbial “can of corn.”
maybe brendan ryan can make his mother happy and shave that crap off his face.
I agree somewhat with the premise and some comments here, the title is a bit misleading. Of course we can “blame” Holliday for the loss. Anytime someone fails to convert a seemingly “routine” game ending play deserves some blame. However, I don’t necessarily see anything “routine” about a sinking line drive that comes at you in a way that crosses up your glovehand. Maybe this will help Holliday’s transition to the RedSox