Last night, the Phillies took a 2 to 1 series lead with a 6-5 win over Colorado in the only remaining playoff contest, scoring the winning run in the ninth inning on their way to victory. This was the second straight game to be decided by one run, and overall, the Phillies have only outscored the Rockies by a total of four runs in three games. On the surface, it looks like the two teams have been playing fairly evenly.

However, that is not so. Here are the team’s offensive totals for the first three games of the series:

Philadelphia: .313/.389/.444
Colorado: .255/.296/.388

In essentially an equal number of at-bats, the Phillies have six more hits and seven more walks. Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, and Raul Ibanez are all hitting over .400 for the series, while Jayson Werth has supplemented his .300 BA with a .462 OBP and .800 SLG. The Rockies have not been able to get Philadelphia hitters out with any regularity, yet the series is still close.

For Colorado to pull off the upset and win the final two games, they’re going to have to keep the Phillies hitters off the bases. They’ve been fortunate so far in stranding runners, because the Phillies are hitting like a team that should score a lot more than 5 runs per game. Putting guys on base and trying to wiggle out of jams isn’t going to cut it in the next two games – starting with Ubaldo Jimenez tonight, the Rockies have to get some of Philly’s big bats out at the plate.