NLDS Game One Preview: Cincinnati
Game One of the Phillies-Reds series kicks off tomorrow, and Cincinnati gets the unenviable task of trying to beat the best pitcher in baseball to kick things off. With Roy Halladay on the mound for Philadelphia, the Reds will have to keep the Phillies from scoring runs, and attempt to get Halladay out of the game as early as possible. The latter will be difficult, so Dusty Baker‘s game plan for tomorrow’s contest should be to do whatever it takes to keep the Phillies off the board.
He’s already made the right call by going with Edinson Volquez as his starting pitcher. Despite his inconsistencies while returning from surgery, Volquez is the Reds best starter, and he was among the best in the league in September. His final month performance (2.60 BB/9, 10.08 K/9, 54.1% GB%, 2.69 xFIP) was nothing short of dominating, and while it was just a handful of starts, he showed enough of his 2008 form to get the nod in the series opener.
While no one questions Volquez’s stuff, his command is always a concern. His career BB/9 is 4.68, and only 40 percent of his pitches were in the strike zone this year. He’s the definition of effectively wild, as his ability to get both groundballs and strikeouts allow him to get out of jams that he creates through walks, but he will find himself pitching in a lot of high stress situations.
The solution – tell him he’s only going to bat once (unless the Reds rally and his spot comes up in the first or second inning, which seems unlikely), and that he’ll only be responsible for four to five innings tomorrow. Tell him to throw max effort on every pitch, and if it tires him out after 75 pitches, so be it.
Because of the way the series schedule is setup, they can – and should – be very liberal with their bullpen usage. The series is set to be played on Wednesday, Friday, Sunday, Monday, and Wednesday, so only one game will be played without an off day before it. Not only does this allow both teams to just use three starting pitchers, but it also gives the teams a chance to get a lot of innings from their bullpens without overworking individual relievers.
The Reds will likely want to hold back LHP Arthur Rhodes (3.24 FIP) and RHP Nick Masset (3.38 FIP) for 7th and 8th innings of close games, but they should still be able to bridge the 4th-5th-6th gap if they need to pull Volquez early tomorrow. With both Homer Bailey and Travis Wood available out of the pen, they’ll have a guy capable of going multiple innings and pitching well, and Aroldis Chapman looms for any high leverage situation where Ryan Howard and Raul Ibanez will be coming to the plate.
If I’m Dusty Baker, my innings plan for tomorrow goes something like this:
1st – 4th: Volquez
5th – 6th: Wood/Bailey
7th – 8th: Chapman/Massett/Rhodes
9th: Cordero
If handled correctly, the Reds can probably get by only having to let their pitcher hit once, and can ensure that they have a platoon advantage in nearly every high leverage situation they might face. Rather than looking for Volquez to match Halladay by pitching deep into the game, the Reds need to take advantage of their bullpen depth and the copious amount of off-days. Remember, relievers outperform starting pitchers almost across the board because they don’t have to pace themselves, so getting more innings from your relievers is a good idea if you can do it without wearing them out.
Dusty Baker should have the quickest hook of any manager in the playoffs. This schedule gives them a chance to reduce the amount of work that has to be carried by the weak link on this roster – the starting pitching – and they should take full advantage of it.
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Nice article Dave. I’ve read about 10 different previews of this series and while everyone mentions how big the extra day is for Philly’s starters, no one brings up the point you make about how it is equally beneficial for Cincy’s relievers.
It also keeps Madson fresh for the Phillies…and he’s likely the best reliever on either side in this series.
Perhaps, but the Phils gain a smaller comparative advantage by keeping Madson fresh, because they will have less need to go to their bullpen in any event.
You can have Madson. I’ll take Chapman.
I would change “stariting’ to starting, but other than that, good article.
I like the solution, although it still can’t hurt to get Volqy through more than 5IP.
I really hope Volquez pitches a gem in Game 1 regardless.
Very interesting way to look at it Dave. I like your idea here, but the odds that old school Baker follows along are slim and none, with slim only showing up if Volquez is getting hammered.
By which time it will be too late to make a difference, of course. I only know of Baker by reputation, but I agree that Dave’s prescription, eminently sensible as it is, doesn’t sound much like Dustyball. A real shame, too, as I am dearly hoping that the Reds catch lightning in a bottle, knock out the Phillies, then immediately drop their bottle, lose their lightning, and roll over for Atlanta in the NLCS. And yeah, I realize there’s a missing step there.
Sadly, I agree with Doug.
There’s really an opportunity for Dusty to exploit two of his relative strengths in this series – a deeper bullpen and stronger bench.
He won’t take it.
This is an interesting proposal…in theory. But I think there is a bit too much theory sometimes, and letting the players play gets discounted.
How is Volquez normally as a pitcher? Is he used to pitching max effort? Perhaps that will do exactly the opposite of what is intended, and create more wildness/ineffectiveness. Changing the nature of how one pitches during the biggest start of his career is a bit of a risky proposition.
On the other hand, this being such a big start, it might benefit Volquez to use his extra adrenaline by pitching max-effort. But there is a fine line between that, and overpitching. It’s a dangerous game if you’re asking your players to play to a strategy outside of their comfort zone.
I don’t know Volquez too well, other than the fact that he is a young, hard throwing, wild pitcher – maybe he already plays close to a max-effort game, rendering this whole thing moot from the get-go.
ANOTHER small issue (and this is minor) is the idea of having a quick hook with the relievers. Every pitching change introduces more risk of a reliever coming in and “not having it”. I think the most effective strategy may be to watch the game unfold in a very standard fashion, and sticking to your guns if they seem loaded enough to go. Pre-planning bullpen usage seems fairly dicey to me, because what if Bailey, for example, is dealing for his two innings? Do you pull him just because you can afford to burn through 3 more arms per game?
Dusty Baker notwithstanding, of course.
However counter-intuitive it may seem to allow your opponent 4-5 innings to get to your bullpen, in this instance I think it actually makes a lot of sense, the obvious reason being that the Reds ‘pen is being bolstered by two starters they don’t have room for in the rotation.
Enjoyed this article. Good analysis. For those who complain about DC from time to time, I defy you to find this sort of take on the game from any other baseball media.
Do you think Howard could ever get a hit off Chapman.
Ever? Sure.
Like once every 20 at bats or so.
Well, lefties hit .154 (.368 OPS) against Chapman, and Howard was above average as a lefty vs. LHPs this year (.264 BA/.826 OPS, compared to league avg of .241 BA/.697 OPS).
So based on that, I’d say sure.
Fastballs aren’t really his problem…
I think the thought process is that if Volquez is on, he is most likely (among the trio of Volquez, Cueto, and Arroyo) to limit the Phillies and effectively match Halladay through 5-7 innings, while Cueto and Arroyo would have a better chance at matching Oswalt/Hamels. Volquez also has the highest likelihood of flaming, but if Halladay is his usual dominant self, that wouldn’t matter. Subjectively, the Reds win probability is probably the same or better for game 1 and slightly better for game 2 and 3, with a Volquez implosion being more tolerable against a dominant Halladay.
I’m pretty sure Arroyo in game 2 against Oswalt is the worst matchup for the Reds, Doc notwithstanding. That’s more because of the fact that Arroyo doesn’t have a good history against the Phils, which makes sense given his splits against lefties.
Dusty never has a short leash. Many articles have been dedicated to thus.
All teams would highly benefit from using their starter for only a few innings of max effort, especially NL teams, which can almost never hit their pitchers.
Do any managers do that? No. Will they do that in the post-season? No.
If Volquez (or any other starter on any other team) is pitching well and does not have a high pitch count, they will stay in the game. And we also have evidence, BTW, that how a pitcher is pitching in the first X innings, independent of the opponent, park, weather, etc., has little if any predictive value on how they will pitch the remainder of the game. And for those of you that don’t know, one of the (several) reasons why we advocate this strategy is that pitchers get considerably worse each time they go through the order, owing to “familiarity” by the batters (and not so much by pitcher fatigue). The two other reasons why this strategy is excellent is that in the NL you can pinch hit for your pitcher in the early to mid innings, especially in high leverage situations, and also if a starter knows he is only going to pitch 3 innings, he can throw harder and thus more effectively…
Umm, nobody responded to my comment (I didn’t THINK it was too long-winded)…but my main issue is this line:
“if a starter knows he is only going to pitch 3 innings, he can throw harder and thus more effectively…”
I think there is a legitimate reason to contest that point, due to the risk of overthrowing, sacrificing command, straightening out your fastball, losing effectiveness of the offspeed pitches, etc.
Sure a pitcher can be trained to be effective by throwing max effort (relievers..), but to tell Volquez to do it in his first career playoff game isn’t a thing I would be comfortable in doing.
What if Volquez gets knocked after 2/3 innings like he did in SF?
Phillies up 1-0 going into Friday night’s game.
You were close Adam, he actually lasted a lengthy 1 2/3 innings.