Comments on: No Mulligans In Baseball

By: wobatus

wobatus — Tue, 16 Jun 2009 22:06:42 +0000

BTW, based on tRA*, Green ranks 27th among all relievers. Vargas 103rd among all starters. Albeit both samples are small.

It’ll be funny if Sean Green becomes the best piece of this trade.

By: wobatus

wobatus — Sun, 14 Jun 2009 17:00:23 +0000

a toss worth takinh, I meant to say.

By: wobatus

wobatus — Sun, 14 Jun 2009 16:59:53 +0000

Ya know, vargas’s fip has declined, green has been pitching much better, and is a groundabller. Yeah, Putz has had surgery. He claims he can extend his arm better. Perhaaps he comes back before season ends. Likely won’t be resigned. Regardless, this trade still seems to me to have been a toss of the dice. I think people decide to write the story before it ends sometimes.

By: nrmax88

nrmax88 — Mon, 08 Jun 2009 21:59:58 +0000

Yeah, Brad Holt and Jenrry Mejia both suck. Jon Niese is godawful? I don’t even love Niese, but what are you basing this on? His ERA in AAA? Ignoring his 8.18 K/9? His 2.86 K/BB? 1.6 GB/FB? .398 babip? His 1.81 fip in his two ML starts? He is a groundball pitcher for Buffalo, probably the worst affiliated team in the minors. They have Javier Valentin playing 3B, and Mike Lamb playing 2B. He is hardly god awful. The Mets have pieces to get a deal done. Daniel Murphy, Ruben Tejada, Josh Thole, Wilmer Flores, Jeffry Marte, Cesar Puello, Dillon Gee, too say they have no assets to make a deal is just lazy.

By: wobatus

wobatus — Mon, 08 Jun 2009 14:38:27 +0000

Roger, understood, but vargas doesn’t really have all that much track record. We’ll see. Losing carp my end up hurting a lot. But the other posible outcome which has not occurred shouldn’t be ignored: Putz came back, shored up the bullpen (which looks pretty good right now even without him due to the fluctuating nature of bullpens), Mets avoid 3rd collapse in a row and make playoffs. It didn’t turn out that way, but there was a chance it could have.

I’ll have to go back and check, but I believe Putz had 13 ks and 2 bbs in september, and was throwing 95-97 his last outing. You can’t bank the store on that small sample, but it was a roll of the dice.

Carp’s power has spiked. The mets kinda have a poor man’s carp in duda, although older and even less power (hence the poorman). They couldn’t have been too confident in Davis after last year, although he is doing ok in Fla. St. this year. Lucky babip though.

Carp took a leap forward (not to be unexpected in a 22 year old). Putz flopped. Endy is a good defensive 4th outfielder. Carrera looks similar, maybe more. Yes, it hasn’t turned out great. I am just saying it wasn’t pre-ordained to turn out this way. And it looks like a very good deal from the M’s perspective and likely always was. They didn’t need an iffy health expensive closer coming into this year. Not saying the mets did, but they can afford to make that kind of gamble. Hey, if they really need a 1B maybe they can rent branyan later this year from the Ms. :)

By: Roger

Roger — Sun, 07 Jun 2009 21:10:37 +0000

Wobatus.. I would imagine it has something to do with SP FIP vs RP FIP.

I imagine that Vargas has a better FIP in relation to other starters than the relievers in that deal have to other relievers.

Mets made a bad deal, but they didn’t give up anything that will hurt them in the long run to the point of crippling the franchise.

Carp could become a league average 1B. Carrera could be a solid fourth OF. Cleto has a live arm.

These guys all have value, but if they thought Putz was going to be 05/06/07 Putz then I can see why they made the deal.

What Omar should have seen is a giant red flag in regards to JJ’s command. His walk rate shot up in 2008 in large part (in my opinion) due to his injury earlier in the year which seemed to have him totally screwed up in regards to throwing his splittler.

Anyway, the M’s made a great deal. They got Gutierrez, Carp, Carrera, Cleto and some SP depth in Vargas and Olson for basically a damaged and overpaid Putz.. and Valbuena (who probably tops out at a value similar to Gutierrez or Carp)

By: wobatus

wobatus — Sun, 07 Jun 2009 15:10:25 +0000

oops, meant to say I don’t know you can call vrgas the best of the deal to date.

By: wobatus

wobatus — Sun, 07 Jun 2009 15:09:41 +0000

I’d say the trade was worth the risk. Putz was throwing hard in September 2008. As someone said, maybe Jerry rode him too hard early. And certainly he shou;d have had the surgery earlier.

I don’t know you can say Gren has been the best player to date clearly. His fip isn’t the lowest.

Carp has stepped up his power, and the Mets could use him at first base, and they need 4th and 5th outfielders it seems. But I don’t think that makes or breaks the team.

If Putz could have given a facsimile of his ‘06 ‘07, he would easily have been worth those players, unless Carp turns into a huge star. Maybe he will.

And although Green was awful for abit he has picked it up. Note that his fip is sub-Heilman.

Naturally, now, it looks like a failed gambit. And this outcome was a distinct possibility. But it wasn’t written in stone.

By: Nick

Nick — Sun, 07 Jun 2009 08:03:07 +0000

Franklin Gutierrez, as already mentioned, had zero place on that team. Between Grady, Ben Francisco, Shin-Soo Choo, Matt LaPorta, and Trevor Crowe, there was no way Franklin was bringing anything to the table there.

By: BrettJMiller

BrettJMiller — Sun, 07 Jun 2009 05:09:24 +0000

His UZR in the bigs last year was in an extremely limited sample size. I’m no scout, but I have season tickets at Safeco in the right field 100 level, and watching him get extended playing time at 2B was a welcome change to watching Lopez man the position. He’s rangy as hell and while it may not have translated to results at this point, I think he definitely has defensive tools.