Odds of Catching a Foul Ball
The other day I attended an Orioles game and just like every other baseball game I’ve been to in my entire life, I didn’t catch a foul ball. I didn’t catch a home run ball either, but that would have been impossible where I was sitting.
While I was watching a few lucky fans snag souvenirs, I wondered what my chances of catching a foul ball actually were. Doing some quick back of the envelope calculations, I figured there were maybe 30 balls a game hit into the stands, and maybe around 30,000 fans at each game. If that were the case, about 1 in every 1000 fans would walk away with a foul ball/home run.
In reality, there were 120,946 foul balls and home runs during the 2005 season and 74,915,268 fans in attendance that same year, which ends up being about 1 in every 619 fans end up with a ball. This is probably better than the actual odds since not all foul balls are hit into the stands.
If we were to say half of all foul balls were hit onto the field and the other half hit into the stands then the odds jump to 1 in 1189.
Finally, there are some places in a stadium where you couldn’t possibly catch a foul ball, and other places where you’d likely increase your chances, making that 1 in 1189 is hardly 100% accurate, but good enough for a rough estimate.
Odds are, the only way I’ll be getting a baseball at a game, is at the souvenir stand.
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I’ve also wondered this as well. It would be an interesting study.
Some other factors.
–Many stadiums have “holes” so to say in between the fence and the stands where HR balls disappear. Goes the same as a place like Wrigley Field where the fans in the stadium may not get a HR ball hit since it leaves the stadium. Or Kauffman stadium where a great amount of the outfield isn’t accessible to the fan.
–Some of the nice things of ballplayers is that they actually throw balls that were the 3rd out back into the stands at the end of the inning. Or the in between inning balls players sometimes throw up into the crowd. The only ball I ever got at a MLB game was due to the fact that the LF of the game warming up with a ballboy in between innings horribly misthrew a ball into the stands that luckily landed in my lap. They expected me to throw it back, but its hard to deny a grinning 8 year old a baseball.
–On your last point, it would be interesting to see where certain stadiums “hot zones” are. It definitely might influence ticket sales for the math minded. Finding the best value ticket while maximizing optimal souvenirage.
If you want a foul ball, I suggest going back in time to see a Montreal Expos game from late in the 2001 season at Stade Olympique, and sitting in an empty region (there were plenty) all by yourself. Since there would be no competition for foul balls, I think you could boost those odds to maybe 1 in 25 or so, depending on how fast you can cover the empty ground. This is essentially how I caught my only foul ball, albeit it was at a minor-league game and time-travel was not involved.
This post made me smile. Thanks David.
I actually caught a foul ball at an Orioles game this week (Monday afternoon’s)! My first one ever - it was definitely a thrill…
One other source of actual game balls. At the end of an inning, if the last out is a fly ball to the OF, the fielder usually flips it into the stands. Also, ground rule doubles would have to be factored in, as would errant throws from third to first that end up in the stands.
The only balls I’ve caught have been during batting practice. It’s a great time to get some as there are far less people and the odds go way up and there are more homers.
Re: Foul Ball at Expos’ game
This would seem sensible, but those Montreal ushers were so zealous that you had to sit in your ticketed seat. Most of the sections were closed off, and if you ventured in you would be quickly shoo-d away. In fact, most sparsely attended ballparks jam everyone together in a few sections to make it appear (?) that there’s more folks there.
Good post. I caught a ball at the Coliseum once off a ricochet from the facing of the upper deck there…and then had another come to my exact same seat two innings later(w/o the bounce off the wall, backspin is NASTY). I’m guessing I won’t see another ball again for a while, huh?
BTW, it’s always been assumed by me that I would like to sit behind the dugout on the first base side for a better chance to catch a ball. I have always imagined that since there are more righties batting then lefties, and foul balls are more of a result of being behind the ball than ahead of it, you would have a better chance of getting a ball on the first base side(all hypothetical jibber jabber on my part here of course…I am assuming alot).
Years ago, while attending batting practice at Anaheim Stadium, Rod Carew yelled at an usher to throw a ball into the stands. I could hear
Rod’s voice and this left a lasting impression on me.
David - very timely article for me.
Big Red Sox fan living in SC. I was watching a Red Sox - Ranger game about 2 weeks ago, and the NESN announcers were commenting on a fan who had caught a ball earlier in the game, and had a 2nd try later in the game bounce off his glove, and I remember Jerry Remy (Sox announcer) saying “what are the odds of that, catching 2 foul balls in one game?”
I know you’re not gonna want to hear this (and I’d love to see you do the odds of this), but at a Red Sox - A’s matchup in the mid-90’s at Fenway, I *caught 2 foul balls in one game. One was in the 3rd inning off of Troy O’Leary, and another in the 5th inning off of Reggie Jefferson. We were sitting down the left field line that day.
Now I don’t think this matters, but I put the * on the word ‘caught’ above because I didn’t actually catch either ball cleanly. The first ball came right at us, and as usual - glanced off a crowd of people in front of us, and landed between some empty seats to the right of us. I cross-body-blocked one of the adults sitting next to us, and gave myself enough time to swipe it off the ground. I felt some guilt for putting a linebacker move on the guy, but I’m still pretty proud of the maneuver to this day.
I got lucky once again on the 2nd ball. Back in the mid-90’s, Fenway wasn’t the consistent sell-out it is today, and there were a few empty seats around us. In the 5th, Reggie Jefferson sent a line shot down the left field line into the stands about 20-30 feet to my left towards the Monster. I remember getting a clean run out of my seat into this open row of 10 or more seats, and used the same logic as before - let the goofballs in front of me jump after it at the same time and hope it comes my way - and it worked perfectly. The ball ricocheted off the crowd, took one clean hop off the concrete and into my hands.
At the time of the 2nd foul ball, my girlfriend was getting us beers downstairs. She came back up and was excited to tell me that she saw replays of me getting the ball on the TV down below. That’s when I flashed her ball #2, told her that it wasn’t a replay, and the celebration was on.
As I sat there over the next inning or so, I started to feel some guilt over the cross-body-block move I planted on the other guy in the 3rd inning, so I gave him one of the balls.
Which leads me to the remaining evidence I have of this feat - I have a picture of me and the cross-bosy-block victim both holding my foul balls (he somehow built up the strength to smile for the shot). I have 3 witnesses, my then girlfriend and her parents. I’m also actually considering contacting the Red Sox to request possible footage, since my guess is that there are only a few of us out there who have been lucky enough to be in the right place at the right time in the right game. I’ve always kept every ticket stub of every event I’ve ever attended - so once I locate that I can give them the specific date, inning, and batter.
I have been to approximately 75 major and minor league games before and after that, and have never seen another ball even come close to me.
My family and I were at a Red Wings game today and my uncle caught 2 foul balls in the same seat.
What are the odds of that?
What’s weird about this post is that I was at a White Sox / Orioles game last night and caught a foul ball. I have never caught a ball before, and there were about 10 guys around me trying to get it. I didn’t even stand up, it just kind of fell into my lap!
Great souvenir!
I once got seven balls in one day at Miller Park. The key is going behind the left field fence during batting practice, bringing your glove and being polite to the players out in the field.
I’ve only caught one foul ball in almost 200 games. It bounced off some seats and into my hand. This is how most foul balls are “caught”. So I wouldn’t bother bringing a glove to a ballgame. Be ready to get the ball off the bounce or after it slams into the seats.
After the ball hits the seats/ground/whatever, it’s basically a mad scramble (especially if it’s at a crowded stadium). You have to be careful not to bump your head on the seats or on the heads of other souvenier-seekers when you go head first for it under the seats.
The best way to get a souvenier ball is during batting practice. I was able to catch one just the other day. You could “ask” a player to toss you a ball, but that is the lamest way of getting one. Leave the begging to the kids. You want to get a ball that was hit by an actual player.
The tiers of getting a souvenier baseball are (from best to worst):
1) Throwing-Error
2) Home-Run or Ground-rule-double
3) Tossed into stands after last out of inning
3) Foul Tip
4) Batting Practice
5) Tossed from a player during batting practice (This is for kids. Adults should not be begging for batting practice balls)
6) Buy one from the team store (Yes, you are a loser!).
Why is a throwing-error ball the best? Because it means that at least two defensive players touched the ball! Home runs happen all the time, but throwing errors into the stands are a rarity!
Good luck!
Check out my website and MLBlog. I have caught 2800 baseballs at Major League Baseball games over the past 30 years and another 2000 baseballs at minor league games! Of those 2800 baseballs I have caught 99 of them are Game Home Run Balls. The more memorable HR’s I have caught were Sosa’s 61st in 1998, Dave Winfields 450th, Carlton Fisk’s 350th and many others!
I even offer “Ballhawking 101 - The Class” for those of you that want to learn the finer art of catching baseballs at MLB games!
http://www.majorleagueballhawk.com
http://majorleagueballhawk.mlblogs.com
….I offer a course on how to get laid; Collecting 2800 Baseballs, for reasons beyond my comprehension, did not make the curriculum.
Yes, I was shocked too…
Believe it or not I have actually caught 2 foul balls. One was at the now demolished Veterans Stadium and one at the new Citizens Bank Park. And I narrowly missed a third that my bud in the next seat caught. I didn’t have to chase any of them. They all literally found me. Very luckily I was both an infielder and an outfielder as they were all screamers and my reflexes saved me bodily harm….lol….
I need to do a final project for a GIS class, and I would like to map a season’s worth of balls that are hit into the stands at a particular ballpark . . . home runs & foul balls. Ideally I would like to do this for Coors Field, as I live in Denver, but would do any park that I could get the data for. What I’m thinking is to divide the stadium into sections and go from there. I realize breaking it down into individual sections would be too much. (However, I have ambitious plans to break it down by lefty vs. righty hitter . . . we’ll see how *that* goes).
And that leads me to my question. Does anybody know if such data is kept and, if so, who keeps it?
Thanks for any help or advice any of you can provide!!
the other day i attended an angels game vs. the orioles game at angel stadium and i was one of the lucky few who caught a foul ball.and i am only 13 so it was sooo cool to have tha happen
I went to the O’s game yesterday and got in the arm with a foul ball - ouch! But I got to keep it YAY.
Too bad we lost :(
You’re rooting for the pinstripes?? BOO THIS MAN
Funny,
I went ot Wrigley 3 years ago. My wifes Nephew was kind enough to get us tickets down the 1rst base side in prime foul ball area. During batting practice a ball came our direction and my wife jumped out of the way. I was like “what are you doing?” Then I calmed down and said” I would just give it to a kid. anyway. Well, the 7th inning rolled around a ball came careening down the walkway, I jumped(catapult roll) down the stairs the ball bounced pass about 5 people and I blocked it with my chest. Stuck my hand out and my forearm was gripped by 3 other people. Needless to say I pulled it out and put it straight in my pocket. No celebration for I have the holy grail !
My wife missed the whole thing in the rest room, I kicked over both of our last beers. Ripped my pants and apparently I forget that whole give it to a kid thing.
I figured one trip to Wrigley and I get a ball. It was harmonic convergence
I had always wanted to nab a foul ball at a Major League game. After hundreds of games, some where I tried to position myself in the best sections, I got my first one at the age of 38! That was in 2000 at the old Busch Stadium in an interleague game against the Royals. Then I got my second one in 2002 in Kansas City against the White Sox. I’ll be darned if I didn’t get a third one in Pittsburgh in 2004 also!! What’s really cool about all this is that one game was an interleague game, one was an American League game and one was a National League game! And in three different stadiums. I guess after all those games the law of averages worked out for me!
I am bringing my glove to the Brewers opener on Friday, because last year I had a chance to catch a foul ball on the second level on the first base line. I missed it because it was moving unbelievably fast with tremendous backspin. I did manage to knock it down for the lucky jerk behind me who was afraid to show it to me because he thought I would steal it back. This year I will bring my glove and at least not jam a finger if I miss it.
I had never even gotten close to a foul ball, but then two years ago, I got two in one game. The first one I snagged as it was bouncing over the railing of the upper deck behind home plate at Camden Yards. I wanted to get it signed by the guy who hit it (Ryan Spilbourghs) and so, a few innings later, I sneaked down to the lower deck behind the vistitors’ dugout and as I was working my way forward I caught the second one. I gave this one away. I felt kind of guilty. I haven’t gotten close since then, although the next day, I caught a promotional frisbee at a minor league game. Interestingly enough, I typically bring a glove to games, but, in this case, I was following Bill Simmons’ guidelines and did not bring a glove.
My father is a casual baseball fan at best, but the past few years he, my mother and people from work have been traveling to Miller Park to tailgate. Last year we went to the Cubs/Brewers season finale.
When JJ Hardy hit a foul off of Angel Guzman in the third, it was my 5′5″ dad that came down with it (I’m 5′9″ and everyone else around was taller).
Believe it or not, I caught two foul balls in the same inning of Saturday night’s Red Sox v Oriole’s game. It happened in the bottom of the 3rd inning. The first was hit by Jacoby Ellsbury, the second by JD Drew. I was sitting 13 rows behind the Oriole’s dugout on the 3rd base side. They were both pop ups into the stands. The first I caught on one bounce, the second deflected to directly off a guy’s arm. What are the odds of that?!?
I caught a foul ball at a marlin game 6/2/09 and I was able to see it on the tv since i taped the game! Gave my son the ball and he had the biggest smile. I put it on you tube under ” Victor catches foul ball at Marlins game” . Most people can say they caught a foul ball- but I have video to prove it LOL :)
This isn’t a foul ball story, but it’s a story nonetheless.
I was watching the Jays’ relief pitchers during BP one day with my girlfriend. She reached down into her purse just as Jesse Carlson tossed her a ball — She didn’t signal for the ball, he just sorta tossed it to her..
Either way, I tried to reach over and grab it (with my left hand,) but just missed it. As I was reaching, I tried to warn her, but saying her name only made her lift her head.
The Ball Smacked her right in the forehead. I felt bad. Carlson Felt Bad. My girlfriend cried. It was group awkward-ness. A 10 year old kid caught the ball as it bounced off her head, just in case you were wondering.
Carlson actually came over and took a photo with her, which was nice of him but it was just such a weird set of circumstances. If only I could catch with my left hand…
The only time I remember a ball coming right at me was a line shot home run off the bat of Matt Williams at a spring training game at the old Royals complex near Davenport. I knew it was coming to me, and I took off my cap to catch it, and it ricocheted off of my thumbnail into someone else’s hands.
I got a foul ball at a minor league game in Orlando in 1986 a few empty rows back, and amazingly enough, found out my childhood hero Carl Yastrzemski was attending the game to watch his son play. I waited after the game and got him to sign it, but unfortunately all I could get my hands on was a ballpoint pen, and now it’s so faded you can’t see it. I keep wondering if there is a chemical that will bring it back to the forefront.
We went to see the METS play against the Nationals last Saturday in DC. It was my first pro game ever…and I “caught” a foul ball. Okay, so I didn’t really catch the ball. I saw the ball coming straight at me (to my face) so I I twisted my body and covered my head with my arms. The ball hit the back of my seat and just dribbled down near my backpack. When I straightened up, I felt the ball poke my back and grabbed it real quick before someone else from behind reaches for it. My husband could not believe it! He told his family and friends and everybody thinks it’s amazing!!! Apparently, none of them has caught a foul ball…and they have been watching baseball since they were kids I didn’t realize it was that big of a deal… Awesome!!!
I have two foul balls and a bounced into my car foul ball. One foul ball and the bounced into my car foul ball were both at a spring training games in Clearwater Florida (PHILLIES) in the late 1980s. The other was a legit foul ball off the bat of Luis Vizcaino at the only Shea Stadium game I ever attended in the mid 1990s.
The bounced into my car ball was a ‘just foul’ out of the stadium homer by an old Phillie (red?) with the last name Chamberlin (all tools awsome arm struck out to much) forget the first name he played RF and had a modest MLB career. But he was very impressive at batting practice. I had left my old Nissan Pickups window open which I usually did in spring living in Florida. The announcers claimed the ball flying out of the stadium bounced into a red pickups window in the parking lot. I was parked on a grass field real close to the park. After the game I went to my truck and there it was. No damage done to the vehicle that I could find. The weird thing is a bunch of kids used to hang out around the stadium and catch balls and sell them to tourists. None thought to open the door to my truck and get the ball.
The ball at Shea cost me my nachos and Soda. The ball hit above me on the face of the balcony, bounced off the back of the 6 foot 8 inch guy who sat in front of me, then onto ground in front of the empty seat next to me. My Nacho’s and Drink (newly purchased) had just been set on that seat. Some kid came out of nowhere and dove into my nachos getting them and the Soda all over the place. I however barehanded the ball off the first bounce on the floor. I was sitting about three or four rows up from the thirdbasemen. I think it made TV and the diamond vision, but that I do not know for sure because I was grabbing every napkin in my section for awhile. Ushers even came to help us clean up. The ball avoided the cheese and soda somehow, but the rest me did not. My brother in law who went to the game with me was off at the head. He is a good 6 inches taller than me and was sittin in that empty seat. He has never caught a foul ball and been to scores of Mets games many sitting just up from the thirdbasemen.
a guy way up in the stands next to the pressbox at Fenway caught two last @ last nights game. fwiw… I’ve had a few go over my head, none close