Odds of Catching a Foul Ball
The other day I attended an Orioles game and just like every other baseball game I’ve been to in my entire life, I didn’t catch a foul ball. I didn’t catch a home run ball either, but that would have been impossible where I was sitting.
While I was watching a few lucky fans snag souvenirs, I wondered what my chances of catching a foul ball actually were. Doing some quick back of the envelope calculations, I figured there were maybe 30 balls a game hit into the stands, and maybe around 30,000 fans at each game. If that were the case, about 1 in every 1000 fans would walk away with a foul ball/home run.
In reality, there were 120,946 foul balls and home runs during the 2005 season and 74,915,268 fans in attendance that same year, which ends up being about 1 in every 619 fans end up with a ball. This is probably better than the actual odds since not all foul balls are hit into the stands.
If we were to say half of all foul balls were hit onto the field and the other half hit into the stands then the odds jump to 1 in 1189.
Finally, there are some places in a stadium where you couldn’t possibly catch a foul ball, and other places where you’d likely increase your chances, making that 1 in 1189 is hardly 100% accurate, but good enough for a rough estimate.
Odds are, the only way I’ll be getting a baseball at a game, is at the souvenir stand.
Dumonk said,
May 9, 2007 @ 10:44 am
I’ve also wondered this as well. It would be an interesting study.
Some other factors.
–Many stadiums have “holes” so to say in between the fence and the stands where HR balls disappear. Goes the same as a place like Wrigley Field where the fans in the stadium may not get a HR ball hit since it leaves the stadium. Or Kauffman stadium where a great amount of the outfield isn’t accessible to the fan.
–Some of the nice things of ballplayers is that they actually throw balls that were the 3rd out back into the stands at the end of the inning. Or the in between inning balls players sometimes throw up into the crowd. The only ball I ever got at a MLB game was due to the fact that the LF of the game warming up with a ballboy in between innings horribly misthrew a ball into the stands that luckily landed in my lap. They expected me to throw it back, but its hard to deny a grinning 8 year old a baseball.
–On your last point, it would be interesting to see where certain stadiums “hot zones” are. It definitely might influence ticket sales for the math minded. Finding the best value ticket while maximizing optimal souvenirage.
Patrick said,
May 9, 2007 @ 11:12 am
If you want a foul ball, I suggest going back in time to see a Montreal Expos game from late in the 2001 season at Stade Olympique, and sitting in an empty region (there were plenty) all by yourself. Since there would be no competition for foul balls, I think you could boost those odds to maybe 1 in 25 or so, depending on how fast you can cover the empty ground. This is essentially how I caught my only foul ball, albeit it was at a minor-league game and time-travel was not involved.
Pizza Cutter said,
May 9, 2007 @ 4:49 pm
This post made me smile. Thanks David.
Oriole Fan said,
May 10, 2007 @ 10:25 am
I actually caught a foul ball at an Orioles game this week (Monday afternoon’s)! My first one ever - it was definitely a thrill…
Pizza Cutter said,
May 10, 2007 @ 11:02 am
One other source of actual game balls. At the end of an inning, if the last out is a fly ball to the OF, the fielder usually flips it into the stands. Also, ground rule doubles would have to be factored in, as would errant throws from third to first that end up in the stands.
Brent said,
May 11, 2007 @ 9:32 am
The only balls I’ve caught have been during batting practice. It’s a great time to get some as there are far less people and the odds go way up and there are more homers.
Jeff Fetzer said,
May 11, 2007 @ 9:53 am
Re: Foul Ball at Expos’ game
This would seem sensible, but those Montreal ushers were so zealous that you had to sit in your ticketed seat. Most of the sections were closed off, and if you ventured in you would be quickly shoo-d away. In fact, most sparsely attended ballparks jam everyone together in a few sections to make it appear (?) that there’s more folks there.
Dan said,
May 14, 2007 @ 12:56 am
Good post. I caught a ball at the Coliseum once off a ricochet from the facing of the upper deck there…and then had another come to my exact same seat two innings later(w/o the bounce off the wall, backspin is NASTY). I’m guessing I won’t see another ball again for a while, huh?
BTW, it’s always been assumed by me that I would like to sit behind the dugout on the first base side for a better chance to catch a ball. I have always imagined that since there are more righties batting then lefties, and foul balls are more of a result of being behind the ball than ahead of it, you would have a better chance of getting a ball on the first base side(all hypothetical jibber jabber on my part here of course…I am assuming alot).
Douglas DeConnick said,
May 15, 2007 @ 6:13 pm
Years ago, while attending batting practice at Anaheim Stadium, Rod Carew yelled at an usher to throw a ball into the stands. I could hear
Rod’s voice and this left a lasting impression on me.
Michael Durant said,
June 3, 2007 @ 3:04 pm
David - very timely article for me.
Big Red Sox fan living in SC. I was watching a Red Sox - Ranger game about 2 weeks ago, and the NESN announcers were commenting on a fan who had caught a ball earlier in the game, and had a 2nd try later in the game bounce off his glove, and I remember Jerry Remy (Sox announcer) saying “what are the odds of that, catching 2 foul balls in one game?”
I know you’re not gonna want to hear this (and I’d love to see you do the odds of this), but at a Red Sox - A’s matchup in the mid-90’s at Fenway, I *caught 2 foul balls in one game. One was in the 3rd inning off of Troy O’Leary, and another in the 5th inning off of Reggie Jefferson. We were sitting down the left field line that day.
Now I don’t think this matters, but I put the * on the word ‘caught’ above because I didn’t actually catch either ball cleanly. The first ball came right at us, and as usual - glanced off a crowd of people in front of us, and landed between some empty seats to the right of us. I cross-body-blocked one of the adults sitting next to us, and gave myself enough time to swipe it off the ground. I felt some guilt for putting a linebacker move on the guy, but I’m still pretty proud of the maneuver to this day.
I got lucky once again on the 2nd ball. Back in the mid-90’s, Fenway wasn’t the consistent sell-out it is today, and there were a few empty seats around us. In the 5th, Reggie Jefferson sent a line shot down the left field line into the stands about 20-30 feet to my left towards the Monster. I remember getting a clean run out of my seat into this open row of 10 or more seats, and used the same logic as before - let the goofballs in front of me jump after it at the same time and hope it comes my way - and it worked perfectly. The ball ricocheted off the crowd, took one clean hop off the concrete and into my hands.
At the time of the 2nd foul ball, my girlfriend was getting us beers downstairs. She came back up and was excited to tell me that she saw replays of me getting the ball on the TV down below. That’s when I flashed her ball #2, told her that it wasn’t a replay, and the celebration was on.
As I sat there over the next inning or so, I started to feel some guilt over the cross-body-block move I planted on the other guy in the 3rd inning, so I gave him one of the balls.
Which leads me to the remaining evidence I have of this feat - I have a picture of me and the cross-bosy-block victim both holding my foul balls (he somehow built up the strength to smile for the shot). I have 3 witnesses, my then girlfriend and her parents. I’m also actually considering contacting the Red Sox to request possible footage, since my guess is that there are only a few of us out there who have been lucky enough to be in the right place at the right time in the right game. I’ve always kept every ticket stub of every event I’ve ever attended - so once I locate that I can give them the specific date, inning, and batter.
I have been to approximately 75 major and minor league games before and after that, and have never seen another ball even come close to me.
Marisa said,
June 17, 2007 @ 4:20 pm
My family and I were at a Red Wings game today and my uncle caught 2 foul balls in the same seat.
What are the odds of that?
Gavin said,
July 3, 2007 @ 9:56 pm
What’s weird about this post is that I was at a White Sox / Orioles game last night and caught a foul ball. I have never caught a ball before, and there were about 10 guys around me trying to get it. I didn’t even stand up, it just kind of fell into my lap!
Great souvenir!
Steichen said,
July 11, 2007 @ 11:18 am
I once got seven balls in one day at Miller Park. The key is going behind the left field fence during batting practice, bringing your glove and being polite to the players out in the field.
Jed said,
July 16, 2007 @ 4:43 pm
I’ve only caught one foul ball in almost 200 games. It bounced off some seats and into my hand. This is how most foul balls are “caught”. So I wouldn’t bother bringing a glove to a ballgame. Be ready to get the ball off the bounce or after it slams into the seats.
After the ball hits the seats/ground/whatever, it’s basically a mad scramble (especially if it’s at a crowded stadium). You have to be careful not to bump your head on the seats or on the heads of other souvenier-seekers when you go head first for it under the seats.
The best way to get a souvenier ball is during batting practice. I was able to catch one just the other day. You could “ask” a player to toss you a ball, but that is the lamest way of getting one. Leave the begging to the kids. You want to get a ball that was hit by an actual player.
The tiers of getting a souvenier baseball are (from best to worst):
1) Throwing-Error
2) Home-Run or Ground-rule-double
3) Tossed into stands after last out of inning
3) Foul Tip
4) Batting Practice
5) Tossed from a player during batting practice (This is for kids. Adults should not be begging for batting practice balls)
6) Buy one from the team store (Yes, you are a loser!).
Why is a throwing-error ball the best? Because it means that at least two defensive players touched the ball! Home runs happen all the time, but throwing errors into the stands are a rarity!
Good luck!
Major League Ballhawk said,
August 14, 2007 @ 9:02 am
Check out my website and MLBlog. I have caught 2800 baseballs at Major League Baseball games over the past 30 years and another 2000 baseballs at minor league games! Of those 2800 baseballs I have caught 99 of them are Game Home Run Balls. The more memorable HR’s I have caught were Sosa’s 61st in 1998, Dave Winfields 450th, Carlton Fisk’s 350th and many others!
I even offer “Ballhawking 101 - The Class” for those of you that want to learn the finer art of catching baseballs at MLB games!
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http://majorleagueballhawk.mlblogs.com
Steve B said,
September 25, 2007 @ 7:11 pm
Believe it or not I have actually caught 2 foul balls. One was at the now demolished Veterans Stadium and one at the new Citizens Bank Park. And I narrowly missed a third that my bud in the next seat caught. I didn’t have to chase any of them. They all literally found me. Very luckily I was both an infielder and an outfielder as they were all screamers and my reflexes saved me bodily harm….lol….
John S said,
September 30, 2007 @ 1:30 pm
I need to do a final project for a GIS class, and I would like to map a season’s worth of balls that are hit into the stands at a particular ballpark . . . home runs & foul balls. Ideally I would like to do this for Coors Field, as I live in Denver, but would do any park that I could get the data for. What I’m thinking is to divide the stadium into sections and go from there. I realize breaking it down into individual sections would be too much. (However, I have ambitious plans to break it down by lefty vs. righty hitter . . . we’ll see how *that* goes).
And that leads me to my question. Does anybody know if such data is kept and, if so, who keeps it?
Thanks for any help or advice any of you can provide!!