Comments on: Oh Manuel

By: vivaelpujols

vivaelpujols — Wed, 18 Feb 2009 01:45:46 +0000

Not a large amount, maybe 10 runs (1 win) at most. For a playoff contending team though, that could be huge. Besides, what is the downside to optimizing the lineup, even if it only produces a couple more runs.

By: Steve

Steve — Wed, 18 Feb 2009 01:37:05 +0000

Haven’t statistics proven that moving the lineup around does not have a large effect on wins over the course of the season? Regardless, Manuel seems to be talking about trying to get a hitter in a groove during spring training games… I think what he is trying to say is that right now what is best for the Mets is having Castillo play better rather than Reyes getting more at bats.

By: Jay

Jay — Tue, 17 Feb 2009 19:26:54 +0000

I don’t think Manuel worded his argument very well, but batting Castillo at the top of the order and moving Reyes somewhere else isn’t necessarily a bad decision.

There is plenty of merit to having your two best bats at 2 and 4, and a good OBP guy at the top. Reyes could fill in nicely at 3, 5, or 6 and still be plenty productive and good for the team.

By: Christian

Christian — Tue, 17 Feb 2009 15:45:12 +0000

One of firejoemorgan.com ‘s last pieces was tearing apart a set of Manuel quotes almost identical about this… this post makes me miss FJM all the more.

By: Joe

Joe — Tue, 17 Feb 2009 08:34:06 +0000

How much the old guys in the media canonize Jerry Manuel if the Mets win the NL East for sticking it to those mother’s-basementing stat nerds?

By: vivaelpujols

vivaelpujols — Tue, 17 Feb 2009 04:16:38 +0000

There is an interesting article over at Brew Crew Ball (click on my name to see it) which details about proper lineup construction. The part about leadoff hitters says:

“Of your best five hitters, your first batter should be the one with the least amount of power and the most walks. Preferably, the player here has a large split in batting average and on-base percentage because the value of a hit is similar to the value of a walk due to the fewer amount of runners on base in this spot.”

Castillo isn’t one of the best 5 hitters on the club, however he is the guy who has the least amount of power and draws the highest percentage of walks on his club. Therefore, using that model he is a good candidate.

Using this model of lineup construction, the Mets lineup should be:

Castillo
Beltran
Delgado
Wright
Reyes
Church
Tatis/Murphy
Pitcher
Schneider

By: doctaK

doctaK — Mon, 16 Feb 2009 22:24:14 +0000

I agree with Sam – Manuel didn’t say anything to ridiculous here.

While I don’t think Castillo should bat leadoff (or God forbid, 2nd), it wouldn’t be a problem to put him there during spring training games. The lineup a few comments above this one works for me. Although I think “The Book” said that batting a pitcher 8th might be a good strategy.

By: Jason T

Jason T — Mon, 16 Feb 2009 22:23:15 +0000

I don’t see how when a guy fails you hand him more responsibility. Other than politics, what other business does that?

Besides, havn’t we heard forever about moving players ‘down the order’ so there’s ‘less pressure’. I don’t see why you’d want to monkey with a good thing. The Mets are a really good team (especially offensively), September swoons or not.

By: Sam

Sam — Mon, 16 Feb 2009 20:45:16 +0000

Manuel wants Jose to give up leading off (at least during spring training) so he can “get Castillo going.” From Manuel’s perspective, Jose should take one for the team while Luis gets a chance to become more comfortable in a familiar role . Then if Luis is hitting again, he can move Reyes back up.

Whether you agree with this method or not, Manuel thinks it’s a team first move because it sacrifices Jose’s personal preference to accommodate Castillo. The second quotation didn’t imply that Jose wasn’t a team first player nor did the third quotation imply Manuel wanted to pad Castillo’s stats. He simply thinks entrusting Castillo with more responsibility would help him put a bad season behind him.

By: Matt F.

Matt F. — Mon, 16 Feb 2009 19:45:00 +0000

David Wright will never bat 2nd.

He could always bat Murphy 2nd against righties while trying the Castillo, Beltran, Reyes, Wright combination against lefties.

Career-wise, Castillo makes less outs (67%) per plate appearance than Reyes (69%). Last year, Reyes made outs 67% of the time to Castillo’s 69% from the 8th hole.

I dare say it might just jump start Castillo’s year so that he at least looks like a professional baseball player when he’s swinging the bat.