Comments on: Oliver Perez: The Next Koufax?

By: Tyrone Shoelaces

Tyrone Shoelaces — Mon, 29 Jun 2009 21:52:25 +0000

This thread is a way-above-average-argument of this sort.

I come at it from a sligthly different angle – one which may be difficult to support with metrics, but can be widely illuminated by anecdotal evidence.

Everyone on this board knows that left-handed pitchers – like, say, renovators of historic properties, or Civil War re-enactors – are a different breed of cat. Wildness is as common as shower mildew in the lower minors. (Maybe there’s a link between the disproportionate number of fine artists who are left handed . . .?)

ALL METRICS ASIDE, isn’t it fair to assert that the best of O. Perez is roughly equivalent to the best of Cole Hammels, or the best of John Lester? (This is the point several posters have been trying to make, I think.)

Perez is certainly not approaching the Santana/Sabbathia realm, but his cracklin’-best stuff can’t help but set every Mets’ fan, and several pitching-starved GMs, to imagining Perez authoring a season like some of the Santana gems.

The larger questions are: what’s this “potential” worth in the open market?; how does one unleash this potential?; and – most importantly – is this particular guy capable of gettin’ all the Clydesdales hitched to the same wagon, headed in the same direction?

Bo Belinsky at one extreme; Sandy Koufax at the other?

This is a post from the far side of baseball reverence. The nut that must be cracked is not – to me, at least – one which will be compliant to a metrics tool. This is a case where a large portion of the analysis is off to the “art” side, irreconcilably divorced from the “science” side by the rare circumstance of intermittently- (and unpredictably-) demonstrated dominance.

By: Jim

Jim — Sat, 27 Dec 2008 16:28:59 +0000

“Um, does any of this make Perez better than Lilly? Answer, no. Lilly is better than Perez.”

A difference of .11 over the course of their fairly short careers is completely negligible. How can you come out and just say “Lilly is better” with absolutely no argument? My point is not that Perez is better than Lilly, but that Lilly is not unquestionably better than Perez. Again, you presented absolutely no argument telling me otherwise.

If Pettite and Johnson being old is a bad argument, who do you really think would be better over a 5 year contract? Because that’s basically what Boras is trying to get for Perez by calling him a top 5 lefty.

By: Josh Warner

Josh Warner — Fri, 14 Nov 2008 03:17:33 +0000

Man, can everyone start thinking a little bit? he is just 27 y/o he has indeed 1000 k’s plus, with a good pitching coach that helps him with his mechanics to lower a his BB issue i’ll say he could turn into a great pitcher, he surely does not worth 60 millon but, he has a lot of potential and hopefully a team will notice it.

By: Antonio

Antonio — Thu, 13 Nov 2008 20:57:23 +0000

wow almost everyone here is trashing Ollie with the stats.
Me personally i’m not really a stat person… i think Oliver perez could be a good 4 or 5 starter..don’t tell me you wouldn’t like to have him on your team cuase you know you’d be lying…..plus his last season record (10-7) should be higher it’s just that the mets didn’t support him very much..he could have ended up with 13 or 14 wins….people never think about that.

By: Sean

Sean — Mon, 10 Nov 2008 23:31:20 +0000

“my main argument with Moyer and Johnson and Pettite is that they are old and cannot maintain their 2008 numbers.”

Thats the worst argument ever then. Moyer isn’t better to begin with, so I disagree with Dave there. Johnson is so much better than Perez some miracle would have to happen for him to be better next year. And Pettitte actually improved from his 2007 #s this year, despite what his ERA says. Pettitte also plays in the toughest division in baseball so his numbers should be even that more much impressive. It would be silly to project Perez as a better pitcher then either next year even with them being old as dirt.

“Lilly has a career FIP of 4.56 and gives up a ton of fly balls. He has pitched 1 more season (with more than 30 IP) in the bigs and is 5 years older than Perez. Give Perez a few years of his prime before you start saying that a 32 year old with a similar career FIP is unquestionably better. Perez pitched 5 semi-full seasons before the age of 26, and still has a career FIP only .11 higher than Lilly.”

Um, does any of this make Perez better than Lilly? Answer, no. Lilly is better than Perez.

By: Jim

Jim — Mon, 10 Nov 2008 21:12:18 +0000

Again, for clarification, I agree with you Dave that Perez is no Koufax. Just arguing about who belongs on that list.

By: Jim

Jim — Mon, 10 Nov 2008 21:05:14 +0000

Just to make it clear, my main argument with Moyer and Johnson and Pettite is that they are old and cannot maintain their 2008 numbers. Plus, Moyer has a middling 4.41 career FIP.

Saunders is, in the words of a RotoGraphs writer, is an “average joe.” His FIP has gone up in every season he has pitched in the bigs, and although he is more consistent than Perez, it is laughable to say that he is unquestionably better, especially comparing their recent FIP’s.

Buehrle has settled back down from his 2006 season, and if there is one guy on my list I would give to you, it’s him. Looking at his whole career, it seems that listing his last 3 seasons alone would be taking things out of context, as I feel you did by listing only 2008 FIP’s.

Lilly has a career FIP of 4.56 and gives up a ton of fly balls. He has pitched 1 more season (with more than 30 IP) in the bigs and is 5 years older than Perez. Give Perez a few years of his prime before you start saying that a 32 year old with a similar career FIP is unquestionably better. Perez pitched 5 semi-full seasons before the age of 26, and still has a career FIP only .11 higher than Lilly.

By: Jim

Jim — Mon, 10 Nov 2008 20:43:13 +0000

Dave, you still haven’t responded to my argument. I am curious how you can justify using only 2008 FIP to argue that a) I know nothing about baseball and b) that Moyer, Johnson, Pettite, Saunders, Buehrle, and Lilly are all locks to be better than Perez in ’09.

By: Brian Gallagher

Brian Gallagher — Mon, 10 Nov 2008 18:00:32 +0000

Aaron B.,

Ha. I’m a fool. Sorry.

By: C Johnson

C Johnson — Sun, 09 Nov 2008 16:44:39 +0000

Try this comparison between Oliver Perez and Wandy Rodriguez in 08:

Perez listed first

ERA: 4.22; 3.54
FIP: 4.69; 3.62
K/G: 8.2; 8.6
BB/G: 4.8; 2.9

Perez is only 2 years younger than Wandy Perez’s home park is more of a “pitcher’s park” than Wandy’s. I certainly wouldn’t claim that Wandy is the next Koufax. And it is ludicrous to say so for Perez.