Organizational Rankings: #18
Today, we keep looking at some teams that have legitimate hope, so it gets harder from here on out. And, for those of you who haven’t seen the previous parts (which are linked below), keep in mind that this is a forward looking exercise – we are evaluating clubs on their overall ability to contend for a World Series title in the future. We are not evaluating how they have performed historically. This is about the health of each organization going forward.
Rankings So Far
#30: Washington Nationals
#29: Florida Marlins
#28: Houston Astros
#27: Kansas City Royals
#26: Pittsburgh Pirates
#25: San Diego Padres
#24: Cincinnati Reds
#23: Colorado Rockies
#22: Detroit Tigers
#21: St. Louis Cardinals
#20: Toronto Blue Jays
#19: San Francisco Giants
#18: Minnesota Twins
Ownership: C-
During the Pohlad era, the Twins have consistently been under-capitalized, especially considering the strength of the rosters being put together by the front office. Despite a player development system that churned out all-star after all-star, the team has acted like a second class citizen, running low-end payrolls and dealing off practically every meaningful player once they started making market value salaries. The ownership even went so far as to volunteer to contract the team despite the fact that the team has a solid history and a good fan base to draw from. The posturing was enough to finally get them a new stadium that will open next year, but given how the Pohlad family has operated in the past, we can’t be certain that new stadium revenues will actually be poured back into the franchise.
Front Office: B-
Under Terry Ryan, the Twins were a player development machine. They scouted well, drafted well, developed well, and created home grown stars that helped push them into contention despite questionable major league acquisitions and an old school philosophy that actively discouraged their players from hitting home runs. Ryan’s exit left a hole in the organization that Bill Smith has tried his best to fill, but so far, the few moves he has made have been somewhat questionable. While the structure that Ryan left in place should continue to allow them to be among the league’s best in scouting, the team continues to ignore the new understandings that other franchises have gained in the past ten years, and at some point, the Twins are either going to have to adapt or get left behind. They have their strengths, but they also have too many analytical weaknesses.
Major League Talent: B-
This might be the toughest roster in MLB to gauge. Joe Mauer is an MVP candidate, Justin Morneau is a minor star, and the team should get good contributions from the likes of Alexi Casilla, Denard Span, Carlos Gomez, and Joe Nathan. If Francisco Liriano can stay healthy, he’ll give the team a quality frontline pitcher in front of a bunch of strike throwers, which can depend on a solid defense to keep runs off the board. But for a team with so many pieces in place, you have to wonder why some holes didn’t get fixed. Nick Punto is miscast as a starting shortstop for a team with championship aspirations, and the team should have done better than sticking with Young/Cuddyer/Kubel to split LF/DH between. In addition, Mauer’s back problems could sink the entire season, and Mike Redmond isn’t a suitable fill-in. The roster has talent, but also too many unresolved issues that could have been fixed. If Mauer can’t play 120+ games in ‘09, they’re in a lot of trouble.
Minor League Talent: C+
With Ben Revere and Aaron Hicks, the Twins have two of the toolsiest outfield prospects in the game – both fit the Minnesota model of a ballplayer, as they offer copious amounts of athleticism and should be solid enough hitters. They fit the defense first mindset, and while neither is particularly close to the majors, they both offer significant long term potential. There’s a huge valley between those two and the rest of the system, though. Shooter Hunt has too many control problems for a college tested first round pick. Wilson Ramos is a nice enough catching prospect with no real future in Minnesota. Kevin Mulvey looks like a #5 starter. It’s a collection of moderately interesting guys giving the organization a bit of depth, but the system breaks down as Revere, Hicks, and a lot of question marks.
Overall: C+
With a young core and a window for contention, the Twins are blowing a fairly large opportunity by not investing more in their product. With a larger budget and a few front office members that were more open to new ideas, they could build something pretty special. They have a championship core in place, but unfortunately, haven’t done enough to build a high level team around that core, and right now, it appears Joe Mauer’s prime is going to be wasted playing on some teams that could have been special but ended up fairly mediocre. It’s too bad, because he’s a great player, and he deserves better.
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I’m really interested to see what the Twins do moving foward if Mauer can’t catch. It has to be a real concern for them. Do they move Morneau to DH and Mauer to first? Doing so would cancel out a pretty big advantage they have had for the last couple years.
Morneau is a very good 1B, if they were to move it would be to third, but Mauer won’t be moving for at least 5 more years, guarenteed. By that time, it would probably DH (assuming he continues his injury streak)
I think you are overly harsh on the Twins ownership. They may not put a ton of money into the team, but they do put in around ~70million and they stay out of the way. You gave the Reds a full grade higher in ownership despite a very similar situation (~70 million and a hands off ownership). And the 70 million they do put in is enough to field a competative team. I mostly agree with the rest of it, and kinda forgot about them in previous discussions in this series. However, I think due to the missgrading of the ownership that we’re looking at an over B- here. And this as such this team should be a place or two higher. I think they should be ahead of the White Sox, for example. The only thing the White Sox can do better than the Twins is spend money…..
Maybe I’m nit-picking, but what the heck, that’s what the comments are for right.
and win play-in games
unfortunately the facts don’t back that up at all. You should expect the White Sox to be battling the Royals for 4th place this year.
The white sox spend more money, have at least an equally average GM, have less MLB talent, and have a worse farm system. How’s that add up again?
Especially considering how young the team is as a whole. Look at Bill James’ Young Player Inventory, for example
You’re forgetting that a bunch of that money keeps getting spent on terrible players like Tony Batista and Livan Hernandez rather than investing it to retain studs like Johan Santana….
Sure, but we’re not comparing them to a perfect franchise. The white sox continue to spend a lot of money on some terrible players and Kenny Williams can’t trade for and keep young players to save his life. Look at the mess that was the Swisher/Garcia trades, for example.
You underrate Nick Punto. He’s not a great player by any means, but at short he gives you an average bat with above average defense. He won’t wow you, but as long as he’s healthy he’s a respectable SS. The only problem is he slides into first so he’s rarely healthy, and runs the bases like an idiot.
I really feel like when you separate minor league from major league talent, you are really doing the Twins a disservice. Whether someone is in the minor leagues or just broke into the majors shouldn’t make that much of a difference. The Twins might be a C+ for overall major league talent, but as a whole they have the best young, cost controlled major league talent as anyone in the league. That has to come into account somewhere. I realize this is a tough excercize to do, but just separating the minor and major league talent without taking into account the age of the major league talent is irresponsible.
Also, I’m really looking forward to how the White Sox, the Rangers, and the Orioles somehow have a better chance of making the world series in the future than the Twins. Bill Smith might be the face of the front office now, but Ryan is still around, and the Twins system was based more on developing players than it was with making great signings and trades anyway.
Despite being “ignoring new understandings” the Twins understood the value of defense way before any of the Sabermetric community did. Putting together a roster of great defenders with a group of pitchers who rarely walk anyone has always been their strength, and that isn’t going to change.
CWS – Thome, Dye, Konerko, Pierzynski are all 32+. Quentin, Alexei (not a fan of, personally), Danks, Floyd are good young guys, with Beckham/Viciedo on the way. I think they have maybe 3 good years left, but yes their farm system isn’t exciting. I don’t think it’s fair to count on KW or any GM’s future transactions to fairly assess future success.
TEX – Hamilton + Kinsler + Davis + best farm system = Legitimate argument. Although it’s not fair to say that all of a team’s prospects will pan out or even contribute, they do have a very high ceiling.
BAL – Beats me, especially in that division. Wieters is really good?
Wait one second here … Mauer is an MVP candidate and Morneau is a minor star?
AL MVP voting (rank in parentheses)
2006: Morneau (1), Mauer (6)
2007: Morneau (20), Mauer (no votes)
2008: Morneau (2), Mauer (4)
Not to split hairs or put any value into the stupid MVP award, but you might’ve had these flipped.
Also: RE: White Sox v. Twins: Yes, the White Sox can spend money far better than the Twins, no doubt. But the ChiSox’s international scouting, ability to turn around loser pitchers (thank you, cutter) and training staff all have been key to the division titles they’ve put up lately with next-to-zero talent.
Mauer has been a more valuable player than Morneau every year, including 2006.
Agreed, just because the BBWAA is scared of factual evidence doesn’t mean the rest of us should be.
Sure Mauer’s great, but the point is, Morneau is more than a ‘minor star’ that sounds bad. You could at least say all-star
Morneau gets voted into All-Star Games, yes. He’s an above-average first baseman and I wouldn’t mind having him as my first baseman, but he’s not a guy who deserves the MVP votes he gets every year. His RBI totals make him look better than he is. I don’t think “minor star” is selling him short.
I actully think you are being too easy on the ownership, especially given the grade assigned to the Marlins. Pohlad is Loria after bilking the state out of the money it needs for infrastructure. He’s consistently listed as one of the richest Americans, turning a huge profit year after year. He’s a D, tops.
Also, Delmon young’s still got to be a major league asset, no?
Anyway, I really enjoy these rankings, so keep up the good work!
“Also, Delmon young’s still got to be a major league asset, no?”
He’s about due for a break out season. I think people forget he’s just going into his age 23 season and still has some star potential. Leaving him out of this analysis is a bit questionable.
But how good can he really get? Even if he breaks out, hits .300 and ISOs .200 next year, his defense is still really poor. He’ll always be a pretty aggressive hitter but is he ever going to hit for a high enough average to post a well above average OBP? He can certainly be a very valuable commodity, but I’m not so sure about star potential unless he can make up for his defensive woes in some form.
I understand his limited OBP issues, thought I think his SLG should continue to rise in up coming season. And I’m not sold on his terrible defense. In RF in 2007 he was +5.5, now in 2008 in LF he’s -16.8 by UZR/150? I’m not sure what that means.
A bigger sample size would be much better, but I predict that +5.5 was an aberration. +/- called him -6 that year and agreed with UZR that he dropped off in 2008 with a -17 score (-25 enhanced). I’d be interested as to what PMR says but I can’t find the run totals for 2007. Yes, UZR carries more weight but other PBP metrics have their worth too. The sample size we have right now points to Young being at least a below average defender so far in his career — most likely poor — and with defense being one of the first skills to decline, this doesn’t bode well for Young’s not-too distant future.
Even though the power numbers are trending downward, I’d say you have fairly good reason to believe he could turn it around this year. The man clearly bleeds tools (or at least used to; I only kept tabs on his numbers last year). But he’s going to have to hit a lot in order to be a star with -5>-10>-15 defense and a -7.5 positional adjustment further down the road.
Ownership’s history includes starting to demand a new publicly financed stadium less than 20 years after the Metrodome was finished (yes, it’s a bad ballpark and yes, the Twins have a terrible lease, but they agreed to it), threatening to move to the Carolinas, and volunteering to contract the team. Granted, direct control has now passed from Carl Pohlad to his son, but given that history and the recent inability/unwillingness to pay Santana market value, I think suspicion about the management’s commitment is understandable. Maybe the C- grade is still low, but it’s not totally unreasonable. We’ll see what happens if/when they resign Mauer.
That said, given the young talent it feels like the Twins’ ability to be competitive going forward should be better than the White Sox.
So, exactly which talent did the Twins ship off that you have serious objections to?
Torii Hunter? The Twins were supposed to pay Torii Hunter $90 million? Oh boy. Santana wasn’t going to stay here under any circumstances… the proper play in hindsight was to let him play out his contract and the Twins might have been hoisting a World Series trophy. But, that was at best a tough call. The Twins just couldn’t hand him $135 million. He wasn’t going to take it and have the rest of the roster hamstrung by his contract. He forced a deal,it’s as simple as that.
Yep, they let Cristian Guzman walk. And Jacque Jones. And the corpse of Shannon Stewart. And Corey Koskie. And Doug Mientkiewicz got shipped out. Meanwhile, they tied up Mauer, Morneau, and Nathan. Pretty good choices.
I’m not sure, but I think they used to have this pitcher, Santana, who was halfway decent.
To clarify, the Santana deal was not good. Contending > not contending, no?
Also, re-signing Santana for $135 wouldn’t have been a big deal if ownership capitalized the team better… which is kind of Dave’s point.
Let me get this straight:
You are arguing that the Twins who won 4 AL Central titles the last 7 years and were closed to a 5th last season, are rated below the pathetic Mariners, the team you cover?
Yeah, the M’s better show up pretty soon here. The next two for me are probably the White Sox then M’s. Though I would have put the Twins above both.
People who think the Mariners are still a badly run organization haven’t been paying attention this winter.
The Mariners broke a major league record last year: The highest payroll team to ever lose 100 games… You claim that the new GM will change the same pitching staff overnight? Or getting an overvalued aging player with no position (Griffey) is a smart organizational move? The Mariners should have been in rebuilding mode at this point but they are not. Do they realistically think that they can finish above the As and the Angels and the Rangers in 2009 with that roster?
I’m not sure anyone here has said they are poorly run organization…..
I agree with thrylos98. Mariners should’ve traded Putz in a 12 player deal or something…
Amen thrylos
As someone who has read Dave’s stuff for a few years, it cracks me up to see him being accused of overrating the Mariners.
Really, really surprised by this – the Mariners have a better organizational outlook than the Twins? The White Sox are the second-best organization in the AL Central?
Given that the White Sox minor leagues can’t be more than a C at the very most, that’s putting a lot of points on Jerry Reinsdorf’s ownership and Kenny Williams’ mercurial teambuilding style. Walter Jones does make very good points about some of Chicago’s unheralded strengths, especially one of the best DL avoidance records in the majors.
I think there will be a commenter in every one of these threads who doesn’t read the “this is a forward-looking exercise” thread. Bad ownership is a major flaw for teams, as they don’t get sold all that often, and an owner who only wants to make profit is flat-out going to hamstring a franchise. When owners actually care about winning, it can lead to over-bearing personalities (Steinbrenner), but the money is still there. If the Twins had $30 million more to spend, they would be way higher, but as it is, they are crippled by budget. Who knows what will happen in the new economy.
So, in the spirit of forward lookingness, Dave looks back at the contraction debacle of eight years ago. Hey, Carl is dead! That’s ancient history! The Twins have been in the playoffs four times since then and extended the White Sox to 163 games last year.
The Twins are a different franchise now than they were then. They learned how to compete in a really tough revenue situation. They get zero dollars from luxury boxes in the Metrodome. They have a crappy concessions deal — the Vikings have raped the Twins on this. The Twins are playing in the worst stadium in the majors (arguably) and they have a terrible revenue model that’s been in place since before the Pohlads bought the club 25 years ago.
The Twins couldn’t figure out how to compete in the post strike era until about 2000. Since then, they’ve been pretty darned good and have had at least a fighter’s chance in five of the last seven seasons at a World Series title. This is a testament to an ownership group that has learned how to run a baseball club and a front office that doesn’t do stupid things like sign Carlos Silva to a $48 million deal (one of those “meaningful players” the Twins let get away). They have a great young nucleus of players at the major league level. And now, they are going to play in a real live major league baseball park starting in 2010 for the first time, ever.
I humbly submit that things are looking better for the Twins than they are for the Texas Rangers.
I understand the Rangers ahead of the Twins, but its really close. They have great hitting (nothing new) but there major league pitching is ATROCIOUS and there minor league pitching is not major league ready (Feliz is still just 20, Holland has 9 starts above LoA, Perez is 17 and Main is HiA) Point is that the talent is there, but I wouldn’t bet anything on their success
On the other hand, the Twins’ Front Office did want to trade something of value for Jarrod Washburn and the rest of his contract last year.
Echoing the concern posted here: the Mariners are a better organization than the Twins? OK, I know you love Jacky Z and that’s fine and good, but how can an organization that was lucky to be “in contention” two years ago, MISERABLY last-place last year, and rebuilding this year (while still stuck with a couple awful contracts) be a better organization than the Twins? I would argue the Mariners are a significantly worse organization.
Just to be clear, I read and enjoy USS Mariner. And I am a homer for the Twins, but I don’t think you have to be a homer to rate the organization better than the Mariners.
Forward-Looking Exercise.
Forward. Looking.
So the Twins minor league talent is a C+? How would you rate the White Sox or any other “talents” in the minor league system based on this? F-? Lets face the facts here: The Twins have some of the best minor league prospects in the entire Major Leagues and always have. Revere, Hicks, Angel Morales, Hunt, Ramos, Valencia, Deolis Guerra, etc. Sure, Hunt and Guerra struggle with control sometimes, but that is why they are 19-22 years old. They are still young men and have to learn some things before they can entire the majors…otherwise, they would jump right up. Santana used to have control problems at the age of 19 (and he still does) but nothing is said about that! You have to get your facts straight before posting something like this. Twins sport some of the best minor league players and development of those players of anybody in the major leagues. I could also quibble about your Major League rankings too, but I believe I have made my point.
I wouldn’t go as far as to say they have some of the best minor league players in baseball. BA only has Hicks, Revere, and Ramos in their top 100. They have depth, but not much else. I’m pretty sure Dave put some research in before writing this.
You’re doing it wrong. The correct way to comment on one of these posts is to assume that I’m biased against your favorite team, don’t realize how good the team really is, ignored the contributions of everyone not mentioned in the write-up, am only considering these four areas, am weighting all the areas equally, and am, in many ways, stupid.
Feel free to go back over the post, figure out which of those things you’d like to accuse me of, and then try again.
seeing as my team hasn’t appeared yet, i don’t think i’ll be complaining
Don’t forget accusing those who agree with you of being paid to do so.
The twins got a C+ because their farm system is average.
I like Hicks/Morales/Ramos, but am not particularly excited about Revere. To me, his ceiling is basically 2008 Denard Span.
Farm rankings are based on star potential. The twins probably do as good as anybody at finding contributors in the minors, but there are very few potential stars down there.
I’m a twins fan, but honestly, how many legitimate stars have the twins developed in the past 15 years? Mauer, Morneau, and 2006 Liriano. Santana was not a product of their farm system, and Hunter doesn’t count as a star.
Dave’s C+ rating is perfectly fine.
“how many legitimate stars have the twins developed in the past 15 years? Mauer, Morneau, and 2006 Liriano. Santana was not a product of their farm system, and Hunter doesn’t count as a star.”
Those are some awfully mobile goalposts you’ve got there, big guy.
I’d agree overall that the Twins are probably looking at a fairly average farm system right now. OTOH, I think that you do the org a disservice by ignoring 25-man players like Young, Gomez, Span, Casilla, etc — guys that still have some ceiling to look forward to and are already contributing to the MLB club without costing, say, the $5m you’d pay Hinske to come in and be a league-average DH.
“Those are some awfully mobile goalposts you’ve got there, big guy.”
What about my statement did you disagree with? (not being a jerk, just curious). I actually am a twins fan, but I thought that was a pretty fair statement in response to – “The Twins have some of the best minor league prospects in the entire Major Leagues and always have.”
“I think that you do the org a disservice by ignoring 25-man players like Young, Gomez, Span, Casilla, etc”
I’ve posted a couple comments in this thread already and have mentioned exactly this (2:10 p.m.). I even added Kubel, Baker, Slowey to the mix. I assure you I’m not ignoring the very good, young core, simply saying that the farm system is average.
Only an intellectually lazy person would waste time waiting to hear the argument before criticizing it.
Seriously, there is no way the Ms organization could be ranked higher than the teams currently ranked so clearly only a biased person could come to any other conclusion.
I reject all future arguments that do not agree with this position in the interest of intellectual efficiency. :-P
Forgot to say, per the M’s: I wouldn’t be surprised if they were near the top of this list. Ownership committed to winning? Check (though they sometimes can’t figure out how). New Front Office? Seemingly tremendous. Talent? Has been getting better on both levels, but still a little weak. However, they have 3 of the first 34 picks this year in the draft. Add that to the fact that Seattle is a great market, where they always turn a profit, the stadium lease is practically free, and a complete overhaul in organizational philosophy, and things look pretty good for the Mariners. Granted, the last few years under Bavasi have been terrible, but the owners let him spend the money…it’s not their fault he did it poorly (except for hiring him). Looking forward, this team is going to be on par with the big-markets in the East…they just have too many things going for them to not return to the 90+ win seasons of earlier this decade. People have short memories.
“Ownership committed to winning? Check (though they sometimes can’t figure out how). ”
Sigh, that’s like a half a check then, and the ownership has shown a tendency to meddle in the baseball operations. Its a good mark, but not great.
“New Front Office? Seemingly tremendous.”
Exactly, “Seemingly” being operative word there. They look good so far, but they haven’t been around to make a pattern of detrimental deals (Griffey? Really? Is that kind of thing going to continue?).
“Talent? Has been getting better on both levels, but still a little weak.”
Exactly.
So how does this add up to “this team is going to be on par with the big-markets in the East?” The Red Sox are pretty much an A across the board. Owner spends, and lets his incredibly talented FO do their job. The MLB roster is stacked and should be in the playoffs this year, and the farm system is one of the best in baseball. I’m not sure how you expect to compare yourself to that right now.
—So how does this add up to “this team is going to be on par with the big-markets in the East?”
Because of the “is going to be” in there. I’m certainly not saying they’re there now. I’m just saying that there is no reason they shouldn’t be, going forward, as they have all the ingredients necessary. I said near the top, not at the top, which I think is realistic. The Griffey move is too early to call, as he can be a decent DH for a small amount of money, and if the organization has the smarts to not play him in the field, it will be a positive. If that’s the worst move so far, then I’d say that’s pretty good. Seattle has the money, ownership steps back, for the most part, and lets GM’s do their jobs (Bavasi’s terrible job was still totally his own, as were Gillik’s much better teams before that). They have a very good environment in place, but the front office had been submarining them. The future looks much better.
I agree the future looks much better. I’m just thinking its a pretty big stretch to assume this is going to turn into something like what the Red Sox have going in the foreseeable future.
Basically its the starting point that hurts them so much. They have basically average to below average talent on the big league team and in the farm. That’s going to take several years to fix, and a couple more to bear fruit. By then its 3-4 years down the road and we really can’t predict anything out past about 6 years.
Okay, I’ll concede. They probably won’t be the Boston Red Sox in 3-4 years, but I think there is a good chance they will be a VERY good franchise, with wins to back it up.
“Exactly, “Seemingly” being operative word there. They look good so far, but they haven’t been around to make a pattern of detrimental deals (Griffey? Really? Is that kind of thing going to continue?).”
Well, saying “they haven’t been around to make a pattern of detrimental deals” is true of the new GM and his underlings, but for the Mariners, the “ownership” and “front office” become a little clouded, since the majority owner(Nintendo and its retired CEO, Hiroshi Yamauchi) are in Japan, and CEO Howard Lincoln and team president Chuck Armstrong run the Mariners on a day-to-day basis in their stead(there’s also the fact that the majority and minority owners as well as Lincoln and Armstrong serve on the Baseball Club of Seattle, which I suppose really runs the team).
And in Lincoln and Armstrong’s case, they have been around–but apparently, they’re also embracing the new philosophy as well–otherwise, Dr. Z would never have been hired. ;)
But, yeah, Dr. Z’s sample size is small(but excellent) so far.
Sass, you just described the Nationals.
Seriously, replace “Mariners” with “Nationals” and “Bavasi” with “Bowden” and you’re all set.
Yeah, I guess the major difference would be that the M’s just hired a forward-looking GM, while the Nationals are basically without a GM. That probably costs them some points.
Mike Rizzo, the unofficial interim GM, was responsible for building the DBacks farm system, and was ranked two spots behind Jeff Z (#4) by Baseball Prospectus last year for up-and-coming GMs. I’d be very surprised if the Nats named someone else GM.
So while it does cost them some points right now, the GM spot will not be vacant indefinitely. I guess we’ll just have to wait until next year to see if they’re more deserving of a D-.
Actually, the M’s didn’t turn a profit this year, for some reason. Which is why I don’t mind the Griffey signing — he’s worth as much (if not more) at the gate than his on-the-table contract. Otherwise, total agreement. Let’s move on.
The only major contributor on the Twins that is older than 27 is Joe Nathan.
Mauer, Morneau, Gomez, Young, Liriano, Baker, Slowey, Kubel, Span, Blackburn are between 23-27 and can be or already are solid/very good. All of them are under team control for another 2-5 years.
I don’t see how that good of a young core won’t be competing for a playoff spot for the foreseeable future.(barring Mauer/Liriano missing lots of time). I think it’s fair to say that playoff spot = World Series contender. (’06 Cards).
Obviously, ownership is lousy and I’m surprised they don’t have a worse grade, although there aren’t many other owners with 2 WS titles.
Not sure how Baltimore and Seattle could possibly be ahead of the Twins. When exactly are the Orioles going to pass 2 of BOS, NYY, TB and make the playoffs, even with Wieters, Tillman, Matusz? Mariners aren’t close either even if Felix/Bedard/Morrow become a very good rotation.
Rangers/White Sox are debatable, but I can see a legitimate argument for both.
Yes I think the number of young, cost controlled players on the roster is the crux of the issue here. Given the parameters of this series (health of the organization going forward), that would seem like a huge mark in favor of the twins, especially compared with some of the other organizations (eg. the white sox). Any comment on this, Dave?
If this is about looking forward and not looking back, I think we need to recall that they are footing the bill for all cost overruns of Target Field, and are even throwing in more money to get what they want (meaning better quality seats, finishes, etc). The entire logic of the grade was based on stuff that’s happened in the past. If that’s the entire basis of the grade, then by their parameters it is meaningless. Ownership should be graded on the choices they made or influenced over the past year or so. To that end I think they should be held accountable for Santana, the stadium, and enabling or de-enabling the FO to spend money this offseason.
And speaking of the FO, I don’t think they are as good as in previous years, but were there really any players out there that the Twins realistically could have signed that would have been better than what they did? A bunch of older, soon to be or already declining players with lots of name recognition? IMO, Cruz was the best player who got away, and for what he got the Twins could have offered. What about Crede? That was a good signing. And as for the Young/Cuddyer/Kubel bit–name two players the Twins should have signed that would have been a better deal than those three players, in terms of production, defense, and contract? This review seems to come from the frame of mind that always devalues what the Twins value–young, low cost, defense, and upside over power, lack of defense, over priced, and maxed out or declining. Because of that mindset, I’d take their grades and rankings with a grain of salt.
Yes, because if there’s something I’m known for, it’s not valuing defense highly enough…
Sarcasm aside, I enjoy the USS Mariner and should have made the connection. Having said that, the tone of the analysis reminds me of a lot of the people who panicked about the Twins’ lack of power, despite the productivity of their offense last year. Power is very important in baseball, but in and of itself is a poor indicator of offensive production and an especially bad indicator of overall success.
Example: in the AL, of the top three HR hitting teams, two had losing records. Of the bottom three HR hitting teams, two had losing records. Scoring more runs than you give up is a much better indicator of team success, and it here I think the Twins are being underestimated.
I don’t think they will be the third best offense in the AL again this year, but I also don’t think they’ll allow the 8th most runs either. Their starting pitching will be better, (definitely Baker and Slowey, perhaps Blackburn and Perkins), while their bullpen will be (at best) slightly better (although they’re looking good in ST, at least Crain). Liriano looks dominant, but even without him the Twins may be OK. Gomez and Span cover ground and create outs, Young and Cuddyer help prevent SBs, and Punto and Crede make the infield dramatically more sound defensively. If Everett is supposedly going to make the Tigers better, than why doesn’t Punto make the Twins better? He led the team in UZR/150 among fielders with at least 100 innings at a position (with 16.4, followed by Gomez/15.3 and Span/12.5. For reference Crede was third overall for the ChiSox at 9.4). Point being I like the Twins’ chances. They may score less, but they’ll give up less.
You are known for several things Dave. One of which is a style of expressing your point of view which can only be described as confrontational. As much cross-checking as you enjoy at the expense of local beat writers, national opinion makers and even advanced analysts (though sometimes it backfires on you) it surprises me to see that you have such a tough time accepting even the slightest criticism.
Instead of assuming the ignorance of those who would question you (something you rail against when others are looking at your work) maybe you could ask yourself just why it is that you cause such a strong reaction?
if the market only calls for a payroll for ~70 million, why are the Pohlad’s being banged for spending that much? They’ve put a quality product out there for as long as I can remember and I don’t see how thats going to change in the future. And where are the Mariners on this list?
I can’t wait to read the comments when the M’s post finally arrives…
It’s going to be ugly.
Won’t it be filled with M’s fans angry that their team didn’t go higher, like all the other threads have been? ;)
Yes, but it will also be filled by fans from every other team that was ranked lower, convinced that this demonstrates Dave’s homerism (and somehow absolves them of their own). So instead of one team’s irrational fans, we’ll get closer to thirty.
I’m calling it right now: the M’s post is going to be bigger than the Mike Jacobs one….
About 100 comments if it shows up before #15
About 200 comments if it shows up before #10.
(Need new server) if it shows up after #10.
The team is now run by Jim Pohlad, and he HAS shown a willingness to lock up players. He was behind the Morneau and Cuddyer contracts, as well as the Nathan and Baker ones. Lets see what he does with Mauer, but Jim doesn’t run the team like Carl does.
The rest the list for me:
17 mariners
16 rangers
15 brewers
14 dbacks
13 orioles
12 white sox
11 dodgers
10 athletics
9 cubs
8 angels
7 phillies
6 mets
5 Indians
4 rays
3 Yankees
2 braves
1 red sox
Braves #2?
What?
Indians 5? Are you kidding
I think some people are getting a little riled up over nothing. It’s one man’s opinion. On Dave’s behalf, he does clearly state that this is the toughest roster in MLB to gauge.
I am a Twins fan and the knowns are Mauer, Morneau and Nathan. I’m not concerned about Mauer’s situation until their is something definitive about his diagnosis. I agree with others, that over the past year the Twins have had a lot of their young talent either called up from the minors or acquired through trades. In otherwords, they have the young talent now in the majors and I hope they can develop into the contender I think they can be, for years to come.
Having said that, I agree with Dave that our FO team has analytical weaknesses. They have their strengths ( Scouting and player development), but they have weaknesses in their attempt at acquisitions. Lately they seem to be in love with what I call the “trash heap of Free Agents.” Guys who were never starters or were regulars 2 or 3 years ago and/or are injury prone. I would like to see them become more SABR oriented while still keeping the rest of what they have been doing in the past in place.
So I agree with part of what he is saying and disagree with other parts.
No big deal.
My only real gripe here is that Dave has no real evidence that the Twins spend less of their revenue on payroll than a typical team in the league. The Twins had a $24M payroll in 2001, and after that CBA, which increased revenue sharing, and combined with increased attendance from better on-field performance, their payroll increased to the mid-50s from ‘03 to ‘05, and then went up to $71M in 2007. They had more high draft picks to sign in 2008, though, which I suspect is part of the reason that they spent less money in 2008.
I don’t really have a gripe with the overall rating, though. It’s true that the Twins don’t have as much money to play with as other teams in the league, and even though they’ve done a damned good job at getting a lot of wins per marginal payroll dollar spent–better than just about anyone out there, in part because they’ve been willing to part with players when they get expensive–without a larger payroll, it’s going to be tough for them to win a WS. I suspect that the Twins will actually put the new stadium revenues into payroll, but this is only going to help them keep up with the middle of the pack in payroll. I believe I heard something on ESPN about a couple of teams out East moving into new stadiums this year…
So the Twins probably belong in the middle of the pack here, but at some point someone should actually bother to produce payroll-to-revenue ratios for the teams in baseball before they decide which owners are cheap and which owners aren’t.
Also, I believe it was stated above that roughly 23-10 were basically equal.
Quibble: Sorry, buddy. Justin Morneau is a superstar- not just a “minor star.” (FYI, he was named Canada’s male athlete of the year last year. But hey, Minnesota and Canada don’t count- the only players who matter show up on ESPN highlights, right?) Put this guy in a Yankees/Red Sox uniform, and perhaps the sports networks would showcase just how good Morneau is night after night. Your simple (and wrong) statement about such obvious information makes me question the validity of the rest of your post.
As for the organizational ranking, the Twins have stayed competitive year after year since 2002. They have an overall winning record- and if this isn’t due to the FO, MLB talent, minor league roster, or ownership, I wonder how they do it. (Gardenhire must sprinkle magic wishing dust in the clubhouse before each game.) Seven years of (mostly) success is not a fluke- and if the Twins are an “average” organization, half the league can only dream of being so average.
I agree the Twins are a solid organization (though ownership could spend more) overall, and I’d probably have ranked them higher. Some of these rankings have really struck me as odd.
As for Morneau, please. He’s overrated, at least by the MVP voters. Morneau’s being a Twin hasn’t stopped the writers from worshipping at the altar of RBI (while simultaneously ignoring the superior Twins player: Mauer). Morneau is a good player… perhaps “minor star” was a bit harsh. He be an upgrade at 1B for many (most?) teams. I think people tend to tear him down a bit b/c of the MVP he won in ‘06, which many didn’t think he deserved (myself included). But seriously, if you want to whine about an underrated Twinkie, Mauer’s your guy.
You believe Morneau is overrated; I respectfully disagree. He is a VITAL cog in the Twins lineup, batted clean-up in every game last season, plays above-average defense at first, and is a real clubhouse leader. [Unsupported statement time: Morneau is the epitome of a team-first player, too.] Ozzie Guillen called Morneau the most dangerous hitter in the league (granted, before his late-season swoon- check out his May–August numbers). His second-most-in-the-league RBIs result from a combination of high batting average and power, and he hits especially well with RISP.
Morneau is an upgrade for all but a handful of teams in the majors, and he doesn’t deserve to be disparaged because of bitterness over his (earned) 2006 MVP award. Calling him a “minor star” is more than harsh; it’s completely bogus. If Morneau’s not good enough, tell me- who in the AL Central qualifies as a legitimate superstar?
As for Mauer, I didn’t feel the need to defend him in this post because he was listed as a perennial MVP candidate- which is accurate.
If you’re going to argue about “such obvious information” as why Morneau is more than a minor star, you should probably provide some evidence for why this point is so obvious and indisputable.
One place to start would be the “Leaders” tab on this site. If you then click on “Value” and look at the top 35 hitters, ranked by combined offensive and defensive value, you’ll notice that Morneau isn’t among them. If you’d like, you can even look at the rankings for 2006, when Morneau won his MVP. Again, you’ll find that he’s not among the top 35 hitters. Given that, I don’t think “minor star” is such an unreasonable label.
OK–of your top ten most valuable hitters, only one of the top seven made it to the playoffs last year (Utley). Four of the top seven MVP vote getters made it to the playoffs, with an additional two (Mauer and Morneau) missing out because of a coin flip.
Furthermore, of your top seven most valuable hitters, four out of seven hit in stadiums whose park factors favored pitchers. Of these four hitters, only one played for a team with any realistic playoff hopes (D. Wright). Perhaps they are good hitters on bad teams, but with the exception of Wright none of their contributions were enough to make their team a playoff team.
On the other hand, the top seven hitters in MVP balloting played in some of the best hitter’s parks in MLB, with the exception of Mauer and Morneau. Park factor rankings for the top seven MVP hitters last year are (higher number favors hitters): 5, 28, 5, 28, 4, 1, 12. And of these top seven hitters, six out of the seven either made the playoffs or were in contention until the last week of the season.
My point is one of values–a player who puts up great numbers on a mediocre (or just outright bad) team isn’t more ‘valuable’ to me than a player who’s contributions are vital to their team’s success. Morneau played in almost the worst park for hitters last year, was arguably a coin flip away from the playoffs last year, and was so important to his team that the Twins would have had zero chance at being in contention without him. To me that makes him a legitimate MVP candidate, and more deserving of a ‘minor star’ label.
Let’s put it this way: Morneau is an All-Star who has two Silver Sluggers, an MVP award, and a HR Derby trophy on his mantle (although this is, technically, the property of “Jason” Morneau). He’s in his prime right now, with the potential to be even better this season, and he is one of the face of the Twins franchise. If that’s not a formula for a superstar, I don’t know what is.
I wouldn’t say he is worshipped by the media when they got his name wrong for winning the HR derby. and if you want to talk about someone who is worshipped for his RBI total, Josh Hamilton anyone? He is also a very good player, but the only reason he gets any credit is because he blew is signing bonus up his nose and then stopped doing drugs. Whereas Morneau never did drugs, and still doesn’t so he is less of a man. This is more a harp on the media worshipping people just because they quit doing drugs. How about giving credit to the people who never did drugs.
OK, since 2000 the Twins have the 8th most wins in MLB, over the past 5 years, the Twins have the 6th most wins in MLB. Last year they had the 9th most wins in MLB. How is this the 18th best team? Now if this is a ranking of team going forward, which is a much more difficult endeavor than looking back, it may be possible that over the next 3-5 years the Twins will win the 18th most games. But I doubt it.
Dave, if you cast the most negative light possible (you did), you would still have to increase every category by a half grade. You must have formed your opinions immediately after a discussion with one of the Pohlad-bashing Negative Nancys making the blog circuit. You turned out some serious hog slop here.
I think his arguement loses credibility when he leaves out results. They’ve won 4 divisional titles recently and were one game away from a 5th divisional title.
The arguement is more suited to a fantasy baseball column.