Organizational Rankings: #6
As we finish out the top eight, all of the remaining clubs earn an overall grade of A-, A, or A+. These eight franchises have separated themselves from the rest of the pack – there’s probably a bigger gap between #8 and #9 than between #8 and #4, for instance. If you root for any of the upcoming teams, you should be very pleased. The future looks bright for all the upcoming franchises.
Rankings So Far
#30: Washington Nationals
#29: Florida Marlins
#28: Houston Astros
#27: Kansas City Royals
#26: Pittsburgh Pirates
#25: San Diego Padres
#24: Cincinnati Reds
#23: Colorado Rockies
#22: Detroit Tigers
#21: St. Louis Cardinals
#20: Toronto Blue Jays
#19: San Francisco Giants
#18: Minnesota Twins
#17: Chicago White Sox
#16: Baltimore Orioles
#15: Seattle Mariners
#14: Philadelphia Phillies
#13: Los Angeles Dodgers
#12: Texas Rangers
#11: Oakland Athletics
#10: Los Angeles Angels
#9: Arizona Diamondbacks
#8: Atlanta Braves
#7: Chicago Cubs
#6: Milwaukee Brewers
Ownership: B-
Since Mark Attanasio bought the Brewers from the Selig Trust, the team has dramatically shifted gears. Payroll went from $27 million to $81 million in four years, and the team showed willingness to invest in the roster when opportunities arose, offering a significant deal to CC Sabathia. The team is profitable, even at these higher payroll numbers, and Attanasio is intent on winning. Things got a bit messy towards the end of the season when he demanded that manager Ned Yost be fired, but overall, he’s mostly stayed out of the baseball operations team’s way.
Front Office: A-
Perhaps the most under the radar of the sabermetric front offices, the Brewers are among the leading organizations in baseball in applying new ways of thinking to roster building. Doug Melvin has instituted a lot of forward thinking ideas, and there are a ton of smart people working up in Milwaukee. The loss oF Jack Zduriencik, Tony Blengino, and Tom McNamara hurts, but there are qualified men ready to fill their shoes. Melvin understands how to build an organization that can supply impact talent to he major league roster and how to surround those home grown players with valuable pieces from the outside. Milwaukee fans are in good hands with Melvin and his team.
Major League Roster: A-
Like the Diamondbacks, the Brewers have the best of both worlds – a core group of young talent that they can build around that is also capable of winning right now. Ryan Braun, J.J. Hardy, Prince Fielder, and Yovanni Gallardo are all-star caliber players, while Corey Hart, Rickie Weeks, David Bush, and Manny Parra are useful second tier pieces. Underrated players like Mike Cameron, Bill Hall, and Carlos Villanueva round out a roster that should be a wild card contender and could challenge the Cubs for the NL Central if everything goes right. They’ll have some decisions to make after the season, with a lot of expensive arbitration cases coming due, but they have enough assets to win now and win later.
Minor League Talent: A-
Even after trading prospects for Sabathia at the deadline, the team’s farm system remains very strong. Alcides Escobar, Mat Gamel, and Angel Solome provide potential as everyday position players who could be ready by 2010, helping to infuse another wave of talent into the major league roster. Jeremy Jeffress has a top notch arm, even with his off the field issues. Brett Lawrie has an advanced bat that should play anywhere, and his decision to play second base should get him through the minors fairly quickly. There’s good depth in the system as well, ranging from guys like Lorenzo Cain to Cutter Dykstra and Taylor Green. The Brewers have a lot of help on the way, or more potential trade pieces to help put them over the top in a playoff run.
Overall: A-
A smart front office, a talented young core that’s ready to win, and a very good selection of minor leaguers give the Brewers a chance to be good and stay good for quite a while. Their capital is a bit lower than most of the rest of thess elite franchises, which drags down their grade a bit, but they have a front office that can win with an $80 million payroll, especially given the cost controlled talent already in the organization. The Brewers are going to be fighting for a playoff spot for the foreseeable future, and they’ve earned their way into contention.
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I have no idea how you can give the brewers an A- for major league talent
Yea, i get the fact that there are some All-pro talents (Braun, Fielder, Gallardo) but the rotation is a MESS. The bullpen is hinging on Trevor Hoffman…after him, then what?
On that note, nothing was said of criticism to the tune of the Eric Gagne signing
Keep the articles up, I love them all
You can build a bullpen with pieces that don’t look so hot. The Brewers bullpen projects to be much, much better this year.
http://www.rightfieldbleachers.com/?p=3928
Also, the only truly weak link in this rotation is Suppan – every other starter is projected to have an FIP below 4.70, and some projections have Suppan below 5.00. That’s still awful for his contract, but decent for a #5.
“On that note, nothing was said of criticism to the tune of the Eric Gagne signing”
Maybe because there’s no such thing as a bad one-year contract?
Well for 10 million it certainly wasn’t a good deal, but yes, its pretty hard for one year deals to be that bad. The real problem is if this kind of thing gets repeated, which it doesn’t seem to be.
OK, so here is how the last five should round out and here is how Dave will actual rank them. Me first:
#5. Yankees’s: only because of all the $$, Cashman is overrated.
#4. Cleveland: each rebuilding period keeps them competitive
#3. Mets: 25 man roster has crazy talent
#2. Tampa Bay: only reason not #1, is lack of funds
#1. Red Sox: great prospects, especially pitching, and they have the $$$$.
Here is how I predict Dave’s final 5 will go.
#5. Cleveland
#4. Mets
#3. Yankees
#2. Tampa Bay
#1. Red Sox
Not much of a difference between what you think and what you think Dave thinks. I think Dave will put the Mets out next, but we’ll have to wait and see.
Um, how do the Mets rate higher than the Yankees in any of the four treatment groups?
Not owned by Hank Steinbrenner…. other than that, I agree with you.
Honestly, all Hank does is talk. Hal seems to be the brother running the team.
If you look at the four criteria, the Mets actually do stack up on par with if not on top of the Yanks.
Ownership: The Yanks tend to spend a bit more, but neither organization is exactly strapped for cash. Hank is a bit more of a hothead that Wilpon, but for the most part both guys stay out of the affairs of their respective GMs.
Management: Again, about even. Minaya has made some questionable moves, but he’s also been willing to take some risks, and there’s no question he’s helped rebuild the franchise. Cashman is good, but I don’t think as creative as Minaya – which is both a plus and a negative depending on the situation.
Major league talent: The Yankees probably are a little deeper, but the Mets core is younger. They’ve got four elite players all at 30 or younger, whereas the Yanks are relying on a lot of guys who are past their prime except for Sabatthia and Teixeira.
Minor leagues: Definitely not the strength of either organization. The Yankees have some flashier arms, but the Mets have got F-Mart and a handful of prospects who could be serviceable if not spectacular players.
Frankly, it’s a push. The Mets also don’t have quite the same level of competition, though the Phils and Braves are tough.
I’m not sure I agree with a single point made here.
Ownership: Hank has nothing to do with baseball operations, and the Wilpon’s are non-existant aside from their checkbooks(which they don’t open nearly enough for top tier talent in a city where money is no issue, and the back page of newsday is everything).
Mangement: Minaya and Cashman have both made some mistakes, but at least Cashman tries to bring his team help when they need it. Whether or not it works out is irrelevant. Minaya brought the Mets no help for their rotation or bullpen last year, and then traded away the farm for a setup man coming off elbow problems.
Majors: Who are these 4 elite players under 30? I see Wright and Reyes as the obvious answers, Santana is 30 this year, so I’ll count him for now… who’s the 4th “elite” player (should be way more obvious i think). There is a big difference between players that are “past their prime” and players that are slowly regressing towards what would still be considered All-Star caliber play, with a boatload of young players ready to compete at the major league level.
Minors: The Mets have F-Mart and no one. No one. The Yankees AAA squad could compete for the NL west. 4 pitchers that will be Major league ready by this season or next, and a stockpile of highly touted hitting prospects.
On the ownership side, I’m simply talking about money. Both organizations can spend amply, with the Yanks having slightly deeper pockets. Neither owner is very intrusive – my only point was that Hank yells a bit more, but really doesn’t seem to have his father’s penchant for meddling into baseball ops. So I was basically giving them both A grades.
The fourth guy was Beltran, but I was mistaken about his age. My bad. He’s still at the peak of his production.
Minaya didn’t trade away the farm for Putz. He traded away a setup guy who could no longer function in New York, a decent middle reliever, and a couple of other token players who have not much upside for someone who is vastly superior to anyone sent away in the deal. He also signed a pretty good (if somewhat overrated) closer.
“Minaya brought the Mets no help for their rotation or bullpen last year”
I seem to recall a trade with the Twins that helped the rotation a bit.
I think he might mean last year as in this off-season. Also I would say Cashman/the Yankees have done better in drafting/developing young players.
Also Paul both owners can spend but the Wilpons seem to be a little tighter with the purse strings. Not just in free agency but the mets haven’t spent like the Yankees have in the draft.
I’m enjoying the list (and the WSJ pieces), Dave.
I just think you should take out “at the deadline” when talking about the Sabathia trade. It happened on July 7.
I have a little bit of a problem with the minor league talent rating. They do have some interesting prospects down on the farm, but most of the major impact players they had have now reached the bigs. Some teams that got much worse grades have much better farm systems in my opinion.
Yes I see the Brewers farm system ranked around 10-15th most of the time. That would be more in the B/B- range if we’re operating on the assumption that C+ is average. The basic complaint is that the system doesn’t have a lot of up side past Jeffress. Most of the rest of the guys listed above are projected to be basically fill ins that should be around average at best. When people say stuff like “The biggest weakness in his game right now is his lack of patience (5.4 BB%) and lack of power (.106 ISO).” about your 1st or 2nd best prospect, that just isn’t a good sign. Sure Escobar’s defense at SS is worth a lot, but if he can’t get better with the bat, I don’t see how he can be expected to be anything other than approximately average. And a ceiling of approximately average is not what you want from one of your top guys.
I’m not clear on the purpose of these rankings. From a baseball standpoint, the only thing that matters is wins. From a business standpoint, the only thing that matters is profitability.
And you think this is somehow unrelated to either of those?
I love that the mention of Tom McNamara (auto?)-links to the one who played in 1922. I suspect (from my impression of him at the offseason Seattle Library meet-up) that he’d be amused as well, though I’m sure he’s been long aware of his historical antecedent / namesake. I guess he really has “seen it all.”
I’d like to see more quantitative justification behind all of these rankings. Maybe scale the Front office in terms of Win Shares traded and changes via free agency. Value the major league talent by $ win value, minor league by surplus value. I guess the front office is fine.
I understand that this would take a lot of work, but if you’re going to make this an exhaustive list ranking the health of baseball organizations, please show me some data.
Edit: Ownership is fine by subjective, not front office.
Way more goes into evaluating a front office, and, to some extent, a major league roster and farm, than the data points you mentioned. Judging a FO solely on trades and free agent signings omits such important aspects as the quality of the scouting, the quality of drafting, the ability to develop talent, and, more generally, the ability to maximize resources and work under the constraints provided by ownership. You want Dave to calculate and compare the surplus values of every organization’s minor league system? How exactly would you propose doing that? Even with the major leaguers and all the data we have on them, assigning a letter grade must take into account such fungible things as overall balance and expected performance over the next ’5-ish’ years.
The only real weakness in the Brewers farm system is an almost complete lack of pitching. Well, that and a slugger to replace Prince.
Erm, maybe I’m missing something, but I thought they still had Mat Gamel?
(And even though I meant Gamel replacing Fielder as the “slugger” in the lineup, perhaps Gamel could even be moved to 1B should Fielder ever be traded?)
I am hoping that Gamel will be moved to 1B to replace Prince. Gamel doesn’t have the power Prince does. Few players do. I think Gamel can be an adequate replacement though since I think that Gamel could play much better defense.
The Brewers may receive some extra credit for their farm system because their top players are major league ready. Also, at some point you have to give them credit for their recent history. The Twins get the benefit of the doubt because they’ve had success, and I think the Brewers recent run might give them an extra tick or two.
This confirms that the AL East’s triumvirate are all locks in the top 5. Seriously, the AL East is the baseball equivalent of having the Lakers, Celtics and the Cavaliers in the same division. That’s 3 of the best ran teams in all of baseball all packed into one place and only 2 gets to make it to the playoffs. That is injustice to the team that doesn’t make it, and to baseball itself. I’m gonna bet that one of the 3 teams will surpass 90 wins and not make the playoffs. That’s just crazy.
And some how they keep letting the NL West send a team to their playoffs…
im not real sure about this squad. 17th in RS/G in 2008 and are returning the same core of the hitters. 6th in RA/G and replace Sheets and 1/2 Sabathia with Gallardo and Looper. Despite BP’s projected 85 wins, I just have a bad feeling on this team. This team will have to keep playing good D (6th DEff) and hope gallardo and parra fill out and looper didnt have an outlier.
Many of their hitters underperformed last year. In fact the only player to have a better than expected year was JJ Hardy. Weeks, Fielder, Braun, Hall, and Hart all had worse than expected years. I wouldn’t expect Fielder or Braun to match their 2007 numbers, but they should be over their 2008 numbers. Weeks had a worse year than his career average and he is only 25. All of the listed hitters are still pretty younger than their expected “prime” seasons.
The pitching, well that will take a step back. Parra should improve and Gallardo should be able to almost cover Sheets loss, almost. Looper should be a small improvement over the McClung experiment.
I think it’s a little generous to list Weeks as a second tier roster asset until he proves he can stay healthy.
He’s been an average player for two years. I know it’s en vogue to hate on Rickie Weeks lately, but give him some credit. He’s going to be better this year according to every projection and was worth 1.9 wins even in a down year.
Brewers minor league system is being vastly underrated here. Escobar projects as a top 10 in MLB SS for the defense alone, higher if he can hit for a .300 AVG. Gamel is going to be a Loney type 1B at the very least and likely better than that. Jeffress projects as a #1. Cain projects as an above average CF.
After those names they have a complete tier of A level players who project as future close to all star level major league players in Green, Lawrie, Lucroy, Gillespie, Brewer etc.
This is a farm system that will keep pushing up major league players for at least 5-6 years from now and many of the players will be at least close to all star level if not super star level.
Logan makes a great point which I’ve been trying to tell people. Two factors lead me to believe this lineup is ready for a breakout season. First, 6 of the core players are entering their prime. The other 2 are experienced, former all-star players (Cameron and Kendall). Second, the team leadership has vastly improved. Yost was a cancer for the team. This year, you’ve got Macha, Willie Randolph (an African-American bench coach for the team that has the most African-American starters – Fielder, Weeks, Hall, Cameron), and Dale Sveum.
And as far as ownership; the Brewers have doubled ticket prices since Miller Park opened in 2001. Plus they’ve tripled prices for ‘marquee’ games. And in a down economy, they still sold 1 million tickets this year faster than any other season in team history. Last season, despite being the smallest ‘TV’ market in baseball, the team drew 3 million fans…9th highest in the majors, ahead of Boston (small stadium), the White Sox, Atlanta, etc. It is a great baseball town, but ownership has created a partnership with the city. Mark Attanasio is making a profit with the smallest market in baseball, which also happens to be located in the rust belt. The B- (above average) is well earned, if not slightly below what he deserves.
Overall, I’d say the #6 ranking is something Brewer fans should be proud of!
I feel like the only criteria for a good front office guy is – How many statheads do they have? What ahead of the curve idea do they have? Without complete regard for track record
Wow! What an idea! Gorgeous .. Brilliant