Organizational Rankings: #7
As we finish out the top eight, all of the remaining clubs earn an overall grade of A-, A, or A+. These eight franchises have separated themselves from the rest of the pack – there’s probably a bigger gap between #8 and #9 than between #8 and #4, for instance. If you root for any of the upcoming teams, you should be very pleased. The future looks bright for all the upcoming franchises.
Rankings So Far
#30: Washington Nationals
#29: Florida Marlins
#28: Houston Astros
#27: Kansas City Royals
#26: Pittsburgh Pirates
#25: San Diego Padres
#24: Cincinnati Reds
#23: Colorado Rockies
#22: Detroit Tigers
#21: St. Louis Cardinals
#20: Toronto Blue Jays
#19: San Francisco Giants
#18: Minnesota Twins
#17: Chicago White Sox
#16: Baltimore Orioles
#15: Seattle Mariners
#14: Philadelphia Phillies
#13: Los Angeles Dodgers
#12: Texas Rangers
#11: Oakland Athletics
#10: Los Angeles Angels
#9: Arizona Diamondbacks
#8: Atlanta Braves
#7: Chicago Cubs
Ownership: ?
With the Tribune companies sale of the club to an ownership group led by the Ricketts, the team is changing hands one more time. Unlike with the Padres situation, we don’t really have anything to judge the new owners by, so I’m just working off the assumption that the Cubs will continue to be fairly well capitalized, based on their revenues and market.
Front Office: B-
Believe it or not, Jim Hendry has a good eye for talent. When he was the Cubs scouting director, the team acquired a significant batch of young talent, and he consistently built farm systems that were supplying the Cubs with impact players. Since being promoted to GM, his weaknesses have been exposed, however – the team has had problems in how the young talent is integrated into the major league roster and the team has shown questionable discernment in handing out contracts to free agents. He’s built a quality major league roster, but squandered a lot of assets in getting there.
Major League Talent: A
For 2009, this is the best team in the National League. The line-up is going to put runs on the board in bunches, and the team isn’t sacrificing defense in order to build an offensive juggernaut. They have a roster full of players who contribute on both sides of the ball with skill sets that age well. The rotation is terrific, and even without a proven closer, the bullpen has a solid collection of interesting arms. There are depth issues, and with Milton Bradley and Rich Harden involved, you know the team isn’t going to be at full strength on most days, but they’ve got a team on the field that could be the class of the NL for the next several years.
Minor League Talent: C-
There’s Josh Vitters and then a pretty large gaping hole. The lack of minor league depth hurt the team over the winter, as the Padres couldn’t find enough interesting pieces to ask for in a Jake Peavy trade and required an additional team be involved in order to get enough quality prospects headed back towards San Diego. It’s a good thing the Cubs have a loaded major league team, because they aren’t going to get much help from the farm system for a couple of years.
Overall: A-
The Cubs management has made a lot of mistakes, but their payroll gives them a lot of room for error, and they’ve managed to assemble a top tier major league roster even with their questionable judgments. If Hendry and company can stay out of the way, the team should be playing in a World Series in the next few years – there’s just way too much talent on the 25 man roster for them to not make it deep into October sooner than later. Given the state of the farm system and the lack of a great young core at the major league level, the fall-off could be pretty steep down the line, but for right now, they’re legitimate contenders for the foreseeable future.
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This is the first team I’m dubious about your ranking for. With a poor minor league system, good but not great GM and a completely unknown at ownership I don’t think even A level talent makes them deserve an A- ranking. This is the team that probably should have slotted in at B+.
Agreed, especially when you consider the age of so many of their major league players. I would imagine that steep downturn should be expected to come much much sooner than later.
Mostly what I don’t understand is how/why they rank so high above a team like the Phillies. Obviously the cubs likely spend more but both have very good but aging ml squads and shaky farm systems/lack of young help on the way.
Dave already mentioned that he is considering the team’s ability to contend in the next 5 years or so. While their ownership isn’t the greatest, their stockpile of major league talent will keep them from contending year after year for the next 5 years, which is what this ranking is evaluating.
I can agree, or at least not quibble too much, with this statement:
“For 2009, this is the best team in the National League.”
But there are a lot of hedges in this article, with this one the starkest:
“Given the state of the farm system and the lack of a great young core at the major league level, the fall-off could be pretty steep down the line…”
To my mind, one must replace the words “could be” with “will be.”
As Cardinal fans, we follow the Cubs more closely than any team besides our own. And this team has the smell of decay to it. If they don’t make it in 2009, I don’t see them in the playoffs in 2010 barring a significant influx of new talent, and their current payroll commitments (and the reluctance of teams to swap young talent for big contracts in today’s economy) will hurt them in this effort.
The team’s big three are Derrek Lee, Aramis Ramirez and Carlos Zambrano, all of whom have shown major warning signs of decline in their production. (Perhaps Ramirez the least so, but another article on this site predicts a major decline this year and I agree). Unlike most of the people I talk to, I think Soriano was actually a good signing, and think he’ll continue to produce for several years as his countryman Vladimir Guerrero has. But outside of he and Soto and hopes for Fukudome, this is an offense in decline. Worse, Lee is locked into pinstripes through 2011, well after his 20-HR days are done. Ramirez as well.
The key to the pitching staff hinges on Zambrano – 1) can he continue to stay ahead of the avalanche of PAP that he’s accumulated through the years, and 2) how will he mature as he continues to lose the ability to miss bats? After him you have a couple of nice guys in Lilly and Dempster who overachieved last year, and Harden, who is Cy Young for 18 games per season, but even when “healthy” wasn’t deemed reliable enough to pitch the desperation game 3 of last year’s NLDS.
I agree they have talent enough for this season. But beyond, I have serious doubts.
‘“Given the state of the farm system and the lack of a great young core at the major league level, the fall-off could be pretty steep down the line…”
To my mind, one must replace the words “could be” with “will be.” ‘
—————
This is ignoring the other method of acquiring talent…free agency. And given Dave’s assumption about the next ownership (“the Cubs will continue to be fairly well capitalized, based on their revenues and market. “) this is certainly a viable option for the Cubs to avoid a steep fall-off.
The problem is the escalating nature of the contracts they currently have, it was part of the reason it was so hard for the tribune to find buyers. They have a lot of older players who are still owed a lot of money which is going to make it incredibly hard for them to be major players in the free agent market anytime soon. Not to mention not as many marquee free agents are hitting the open market.
To my mind, one must replace the words “could be” with “will be.”
I sure to your mind it has to be inevitable, because this is what your mind wants to believe. Lets begin.
“And this team has the smell of decay to it. If they don’t make it in 2009, I don’t see them in the playoffs in 2010 barring a significant influx of new talent, and their current payroll commitments (and the reluctance of teams to swap young talent for big contracts in today’s economy) will hurt them in this effort.”
While I can’t comment on the overall odor of the Cubs baseball team I can find flaws in the rest of your statements. Namely why you feel they are at the limits of their payroll when you have no idea what that payroll will be. The Cubs have added payroll every year for the last several and there have been no indications from the new owner that this will change. Further you seem to feel that in the span of 1 year the Cubs will go from the class of the NL to a team not able to win its divison. Are all the Cubs players going to age at the same time, dramatically and all the while the hyped up young talent of StL, Cincy and Milwaukee will all pan out and mature? This seems as improbable as a Cubs fan thinking that the core won’t age at all doesn’t it?
“The team’s big three are Derrek Lee, Aramis Ramirez and Carlos Zambrano”
This is not only false but it’s irrelevant. Why limit a team to a “Big Three” Unlike other teams in the division whose hopes for contention rest on 1 or 2 mega players to carry the team the Cubs have no real other worldly talent but a collection of good players. Aramis Ramriez, Milton Bradley, Zambrano, Marmol and Soto aren’t going anywhere and while some will undoubtedly face regression that doesn’t mean their regression makes them useless decrepit players rather just less productive ones. By every measure the Cubs have a vast gap of talent/production from the rest of the NL Central so it would take alot of regression to age team in the way you imply they will.
“this is an offense in decline”
Now THAT is really off track. Take a look at the WAR for the Cubs offense this year compared to last year’s. This team is going to score more runs, a lot more rather than less.
“Worse, Lee is locked into pinstripes through 2011,”
False. His contract is up in 2010 along with Ted Lilly’s and perhaps Bradley’s which gives the Cubs between 20-30 million to sign other good players.
“his 20-HR days are done. Ramirez as well”
This is getting homer-ish. When Derrek Lee hits 20 this year send me an emai. Also, when Aramis Ramirez posts an OPS over the .850 mark for the next few seasons think of me. There is a difference between wishing somethign to be so and presenting it as a likely event and actually having reasons to feel the way you do.
“The key to the pitching staff hinges on Zambrano”
No it doesn’t. Zambrano is a great pitcher and we like having him but if he goes down tomorrow we have a good enough rotation to win the NL Central without much trouble. This isn’t my opinion its backed up with WAR and other metrics.
“After him you have a couple of nice guys in Lilly and Dempster who overachieved last year”
This is the 2nd year in a row I have seen people talk about Lilly and his overachieving, maybe it’s time to acknowledge he is a good pitcher and just leave it at that? As for Dempster he isn’t having any problems racking up the K’s in ST so far so while I won’t hold my breath for a 08 repeat other teams fans shouldn’t bet against a productive season either. Also, Rich Harden did in fact start in the NLDS and “when healthy” is the best pitcher in the NL.
I also apologize in advance for the typos I’m rushing to get of the office.
I think the reason is because the Cubs are probably the best team right now in the NL by a significant margin. This makes them the most like MLB team to reach the world series this year and maybe for one or two more. Their short term future is good enough to make up for a lack of longer-term prospects.
This is a good point; i guess this optimism is relying on a couple last grasps at a title and a big-market safety net to overcome longer-term concerns.
I’ve gotta say though, as a hardcore Cubs fan, i can’t help but agree with Will’s comments regarding the sense of this team: they just feel like a team that missed out on their best shot and supporting their short-term hopes with free agency feels like a taller and taller order. I think it’d be tough to argue against the claim that this is a team getting worse, not better, even if you disagree about the strength of the core. With the exception of Soto, Marmol, and Harden (for some of us more bullish types), you can’t really get excited about the 2011/2012 version of the players here, regardless of how good they are right now.
And also, watching them over the past few years, i just can’t shake the sense that their consensus as the NL team-to-beat isn’t drastically shaped by the inferiority of the Central division and their oh-so-convenient SOS. As little as postseason performance says about a team, it’s not much of a surprise that they’ve been swept right out of dodge the last couple years, as they never seem to matchup against quality teams from the other divisions. Combining this with an apparent downhill trend, and well… i guess we’ve got a couple more shots to take at the dartboard we call the postseason.
I really don’t get the constant bashing of the Cubs minor league system. It quietly has produced the current teams opening day starter, one of the best RP in baseball, a starting SS who provides above league average production, what should be a good 5th starter in Sean Marshall and the 2008 ROY at a premier position.
It has also provided ammunition to land Aramis Ramirez, Derrek Lee and last year’s Rich Harden blockbuster. So while the Cubs farm may not get all the press and adoration from arbitrary prospect ranking systems it does provide talent to the major league club which is what farm systems are for in the first place. The Cubs system is not top of the line but it is far from being the barren wasteland that others try and depict.
Dave’s minor league rating grades the strength of the prospects currently on the farm, not the general ability of the team to acquire and develop talent (that would be included in the front office rating)
I think dylan is using the current team to express distrust for minor league assesments in general. When Soto, Marmol, Theriot, Fontenot, and Marshall were in the minors 2 years ago, the system still wasn’t rated that high.
I have to agree dylan. And don’t forget Mike Fontenot, although I know he originated in Baltimore’s system- the Cubs got their starting 2B, who is projected to be above avg. for a post-decline Sammy Sosa. That means the starting C, SS, 2B, closer, and 2/5 the rotation on a team ranked ‘A’ came from this ‘dreadful’ system. It certainly isn’t the best system, and no one is claiming that it is. Most minor league assesments aren’t intended to discuss how the minor league talent is used to improve/supplement what the big league team has.
And going back to the acquisition of Fontenot, that’s one of a few trades where Hendry completely fleeced someone (Aramis Ramirez and Kenny Lofton for Bobby Hill, Derek Lee for Hee Sop Choi, and the Harden/Gaudin trade was hard not to like). Of course, Hendry has been fleeced his share of times (Piere for Nolasco/Mitre) and has handed out some rediculous contracts. But the point made in this article about building an offensive jugernaut while not sacrificing defense is another thing he should get some credit for.
Regarding the Farm System. A way to look at it is if you were an opposing GM, what talent in the minor league system would you be targeting?
And that’s Dave’s point. Outside of Vitters, there isn’t much.
Sure there is the possibility a guy busts out of nowhere like Soto did or a guy with limited tools somehow translates to major league success like a Theriot…but the farm system is definitely not one that is envied.
As for the future, I am a die hard Cubs fan and I see this teams window being 2 years. 2010 is Derrek Lee’s and Ted Lilly’s final year of their contract. Aramis Ramirez has the chance to opt-out and if he is still one of the top 4 or 5 offensive 3B in the league, he probably will. And perhaps not coincidentially, Lou Piniella’s contract also expires at the end of 2010.
So…..2010 or bust!
This is laughable.
I would wager a very substantial amount of (internet) dollars that the Cubs will not win a World Series with this roster. Contend? Sure. Right now the division is down. But they’ll need to count on everybody staying healthy, nobody continuing their decline and more heaps of overachieving to actually get it done. I’m dubious that’s going to happen.
I also don’t see how the Cubs can be #7 with a terrible farm team and $110 million tied up in aging players years from now while the Cardinals can be at #21 with a superior farm system, almost equal payrolls and the best player in baseball in his prime at 1b.
Let’s be clear here. The rest of the division is down. The Cubs are going to win 90-94 games with relative ease, and have a good shot at winning 98-100. They have five good starters, and even assuming Harden only makes 20-25 starts, Aaron Heilman is a better option than 3/5 of the Cardinals or Brewers rotations. So their sixth starter is basically better than or equal to more than half the starting pitchers on their two supposed rivals. And their lineup is very good. Even assuming Bradley misses significant time, it’s good. Obviously they don’t have Albert Pujols, the best player in MLB, but they have Milton Bradley, Alfonso Soriano, Aramis Ramirez, Geovany Soto, Derrek Lee, and Mike Fontenot. And I don’t know where you’re getting the idea of equal payrolls, either. The Cards payroll will be in the $100MM range, while the Cubs payroll will be north of $140MM. That’s a 40% difference. And for all your talk about aging players, outside of Soriano, those can all come off the books after 2010, leaving more money for acquiring free agent talent. The Cubs are in a position to dominate the NL Central. The rest of the division’s weakness only makes it that much easier.
“I would wager a very substantial amount of (internet) dollars that the Cubs will not win a World Series with this roster.”
Wow, that’s a prediction. So, if the Cubs pick up a reliever, or someone gets injured, or someone gets called up, you win the bet? How stupid. This roster was the best in the NL last year.
“they’ll need to count on everybody staying healthy,”
That’s just plain false. The Cubs have the best 1-4 in the NL for sure, and possibly in MLB. If one goes down, will the Cubs really be hurt by having Zambrano, Dempster, Lilly, Marshall, and Jeff S (spelling)? Absolutely not. Would the Cubs do fine without Derrek Lee? Absolutely.
In regards to the “aging” players. Have the Cardinals found a way for Chris Carpenter and Albert Pujols not to age? That would be impressive. The fact is that the only contributor on last year’s team who was older than 33 was Jim Edmonds. This whole post is just plain stupid.
It is amazing how it only takes 1 or 2 people to ruin a comment thread on a blog.
I agree, a little more thought and a little less bickering could go a long way here.
hmmm
I think this is a well thought out post, I too am curiouse what’s going to happen with the Ricketts group.
Upon reflection this list has been perfectly constructed and I wouldn’t change a single ranking.
1. The Cubs farm is PRESENTLY bad. All of their depth is at AA or below…mostly below. I do think there are impact players there, but none of them will be up before 2011.
2. The major league team is pretty much awesome, with no real weaknesses besides MAYBE the pen…but that would require Gregg, Heilman, and Marmol to all be bad. I think thats a stretch.
3. The offense scored more runs last year than ANY team, including AL team that use a DH, other than Texas. I mean come on…they lost DeRo and Edmonds and added Bradley, moving Fukudome to CF and platooning him. They are now more balanced and can basically go Righty leftiy all the way up and down the lineup. With the pop that Fontenot has shown, there is very very little not to like about this offense.
4. I think the window for this group is the next two years, but that isn’t to say a team with a 140 to 150 mil payroll can’t retool very very quickly, even without a great farm system. But the beauty of it is, while all their talent is in A ball right now, they will be ready in about, what, 3 years or so? About when they might need some retooling?
This is a good organization and he would lose all credibility if it weren’t in the top 10. Drought or not, this is the team to beat in the NL. They are predicted to win 97 games next year.
Funny how Edmonds contribution to last yrs team consistently gets overlooked. His RC in 298 PA for the them was 53. Derosa’s in 593 PA was 98. How are we supposed to assume Bradley is going to replicate this production along with the half-year wonder Fukodome and the unknown in Fontenot? I bet Bradley wont reach 100 gms this year, especially with all those day gms. I personally feel the Central race will be a lot tighter than most people believe with St. Louis running a very close 2nd.
Dempster had a career year just like Cliff Lee. I dont think you can expect the same results. He wont have the same amount of run production. All 5 of the Cubs SP were in the top 10 in the majors in run support averaging over 7.9/9inn. Less support equals a smaller window for pitching and fielding mistakes. We have seen in recent history how pressure busts pipes when it comes to this team and the playoffs. Well see how it plays out in the regular season when they dont have a comfortable 3 or 4 run lead heading into the 7th like a majority of last yrs wins, all the while being a suppossed “lock” of making the playoffs. Stranger things have happened on the north side.
Steve,
The reason why the Cubs starters were top 10 in the majors were because the Cubs had a really good offense. I personally think it’s even better this year, but even if you don’t think so their pitching is also quite good – they had the third best ERA in the NL and the most strikeouts.
Amusing to read re Cubs 10 months later. The worm turned quickly.
“Believe it or not, Jim Hendry has a good eye for talent.”
Damn fucking right i do. Kevin Gregg was a steal.
These comments are awesomely entertaining.
Lots of snark from the “Cubs are the best NL team for 2009″ group.
How’s that working out for ya?
Any ranking that puts the Cubs ahead of the Cardinals, Phillies, and Angels is a joke.
Writer better comments.