Organizational Rankings: Current Talent – Houston
In terms current talent — ability to win games and potentially reach the playoffs in 2010 and 2011, irrespective of contract situation — the Houston Astros rank in the bottom fifth. The FANS project them to win just 72 games, and other projection systems, CHONE, THT and CAIRO, similarly see them as a low-70s team, if not worse.
The talent on the current roster is underwhelming. There are probably only four players who can be considered solidly above average (projected to be worth over 2.5 wins): Lance Berkman, Hunter Pence, Roy Oswalt and Wandy Rodriguez. Berkman and Oswalt, 34 and 32, respectively, almost assuredly have their best years behind them and are more likely three- or four-win rather than five- or six-win players. Also Berkman might not even be ready for opening day, with upcoming surgery to remove loose particles from his knee. Pence is a good, three-win corner outfielder. Rodriguez had a great 2009 with a sub-four FIP and over 200 innings pitched. He is arguably the team’s best player and a four-win season is with in the realm of possibility. These four guys are good players, but none is a true superstar, and collectively they form too small a core of good players.
After those four players, Carlos Lee and Michael Bourn are both projected at about two wins each by CHONE, with the FANS a little more optimistic. With Pence they form an okay outfield. But after that there is little talent on the roster. Joining Berkman in the infield is all-glove, no-bat Pedro Feliz; not-much bat, not-much glove Kaz Matsui; and Tommy Manzella, who is projected to play just below replacement level. If Berkman misses some time he will be replaced by another near-replacement leveler Chris Shelton.
The back three-fifths of the rotation is slightly more inspiring. After Rodriguez and Oswalt the Astros will go with Brett Myers and two of Bud Norris, Brian Moehler and Felipe Paulino. As Carson pointed out Paulino and Norris pitched fairly well last year, with xFIPs of 4.10 and 4.38, respectively, and even with likely regression, they would form a not terrible back end of a rotation. But the Astros might go with Moehler, who is likely a worse pitcher. The bullpen, led by Brandon Lyon and Matt Lindstrom, and bench are poor.
This is a team with just very little talent. The team lacks a top-tier superstar, has few solidly above average players, and is going to start too many at- or near-replacement-level players in 2010. There are few teams, maybe just one or two, with worse talent or a smaller chance at reaching the playoffs in 2010. And the talent on the team in the second half of 2010 and 2011 could be even worse as a trade of Oswalt or Berkman, or both, is not a bad idea – except for the meddling owner may not allow it.
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Agreed. Houston’s current talent is pathetic.
Although I do think Berkman is still a superstar player. He had a 6.9 WAR season as recently as 2008.
The Astros mafia is gonna love this.
Good choice for #30. At least the Nats have Strasburg to look forward to.
Who’s next? My guess:
#29: Royals
#28: Nats
#27: Padres
Don’t forget Zimmerman, who’s locked up through 2013. A 2-player core might not be much, but those are two damned good players.
Given Dave C’s (completely legitimate) dislike of Omar Minaya/the Mets organization in general, the Mets may be #27 on the list, if not 28 or 29.
I think they have too much money, and too good of a core, to be ranked that low.
What marcfello said. Their payroll and large market are definitely a plus–Minaya has no excuse for screwing it up, but I’ll be surprised if they’re any lower than, oh, 20th or so.
The Padres should be in the middle. They don’t have a lot of MLB-ready talent now, but they look good for 2012 and beyond.
Blue Jays and Pirates aren’t too far away either.
How about BP’s projection (PECOTA) of 77 wins, same as the Brewers and Reds?
Tied for third worst in baseball? PECOTA has everyone winning at least 77 games except Pittsburgh (71) and Toronto (75).
Tied with three teams. And Baltimore (75) is also projected lower. PECOTA also has three organizations slated to win 78 games and one slated to win 79.
PECOTA has Baltimore winning 80 games.
The number of wins varies a little from the other systems, but PECOTA still has the Astros as one of the worst teams in baseball this year.
But given PECOTA’s disastrous performance last season and its well-documented problems with its roll out this year, PECOTA might as well just project every team to win 81 games.
Why not mention Hunter Pence who is a young, good outfielder? He is still young enough to be a couple of years away from his peak. I wouldn’t rule out the possibility that he could become close to an elite ballplayer, even though the more likely possibility is that he will be a solid all star quality outfielder for several years.
Pence’s name is mentioned three times.
my mistake.
I’ll also mention that I like the Astros’ bullpen. There are a lot of good young arms, including Alberto Arias, Sammy Gervacio, Matt Lindstrom, and Jeff Fulchino. Lo and Nevarez are good fastball relievers in the minors who could be called up sometime next year too. Arias, Fulchino, and Gervacio pitched very well out of the bullpen last year. Chris Sampson and Lyon have proven to be good, though not great, veteran relievers. Sampson was the Astros best reliever for about half the season last year before the manager overused him and then made him pitch through arm injury toward the end of the season. I always hesitate to have too much certainty about any team’s bullpen, given the year to year fluctuations and frequency of injuries. But, as someone who has watched Sampson, Arias, and Fulchino pitch many times, I think you underrate the bullpen.
What are your sources about this