Organizational Rankings: Current Talent – White Sox
Kenny Williams is a direct reflection of his team – enigmatic. He’s made some brilliant moves and he’s made some…less than brilliant moves. But he’s always making moves, he rarely stands pat. Well, unless it’s this winter regarding his DH situation, but that is a horse that has already been whipped by our own Matt Klaasen. Right now we’re looking at the present talent Williams has assembled.
The White Sox are a mixed bag of aging veterans and up-and-coming youngsters, sprinkled in with a couple of players with (what have been deemed) toxic contracts that Williams took on. I’ll start with the starting rotation, which has a player with a less than flexible contract in Jake Peavy. Peavy is making the switch from one extremely friendly ballpark to the less than friendly confines of “The Cell”. He has a bit of an injury history (202 total days on the DL), but the Pale Hose have been one of the best clubs at treating and preventing injuries. They’re paying him like an ace for the next three, possibly four years, but I wouldn’t bank on him being one. Peavy leads the charge of what is a very strong pitching rotation, behind him is the dependable Mark Buehrle, who is under contract for this season and the next. Following those two are two very good, cost-effective starters in John Danks and Gavin Floyd. Lastly, we have Freddy Garcia keeping Daniel Hudson‘s seat warm. Few teams boast of such a rotation. This is a fantastic rotation that will need to hold together, because the offense could be pretty wretched.
Backing up that rotation is a strong, yet expensive bullpen. Matt Thornton has been worth on average 1.6 WAR per season since coming for to the Sox. Those are elite totals for a set-up man, and because of his presence I’m surprised the White Sox have not been more aggressive about trading Bobby Jenks, who they just paid $7 million in his second season of arbitration eligibility. This is also the team that is paying Scott Linebrink $11 million more over the next two seasons. The team also is gambling $3 million on J.J. Putz. They also have the hard-throwing Tony Pena, who they traded Brandon Allen go the Diamondbacks to get. Allen was supposed to be the future for the Sox at first base.
The lineup is headlined by Gordon Beckham, who played extremely well in his rookie debut and should provide the team all-star caliber contributions for years to come. His double-play partner Alexei Ramirez should also be in a White Sox uniform for years to come, but he’s proving to be a tough nut to crack. His offense slipped last year, but his defense at shortstop improved. The season before his defense was terrible but he hit well. The Sox would like to get him firing on all cylinders. Carlos Quentin has two more seasons of arbitration eligibility left, and if he can hit like he did in 2008, the White Sox may think about extending him. But his defense has been abysmal in the outfield and he’s had trouble staying on the field, dealing with foot and wrist injuries.
From there, Williams has an odd collection players who used to be great earlier in this millennium that he’s brought in in recent times – Alex Rios, Juan Pierre, Mark Kotsay, Andruw Jones, Omar Vizquel and I suppose even Mark Teahen fits that bill. (Remember that 2006!) There are also longtime Sox Paul Konerko and A.J. Pierzynski, who are in their last season of their contract and have seen better days. Rios has over $61 million remaining on his contract that will take him into 2014. He was a 5 WAR player in 2007 and 2008, but was replacement level last season, and the move to the Windy City didn’t help as many expected.
For the present, this looks very much like a .500 team. Williams hamstrung himself by taking on the Peavy and Rios contracts, and will have to rely on his prospects to carry the White Sox forward.
22
lulz.
Full Dusclosure: I live for the White Sox.
That said, our Starting Pitching and Relief Pitching are too good for a middle-of-the road projection. Also, offensively, we have many guys who hit below expectations last year. It’s highly likely that we will score more runs this year than last.
Furthermore, Kenny’s track record is fantastic. He hasn’t hit on 100% of his (many) moves, but I believe that the Sox have been over .500 in all but two years the last decade . . . and won a World Series! I never thought I’d see the Sox win one. (I know I’ll never see the Cubs win one.) Where is Kenny’s credit?
Anyone wanna bet that we have a losing record in 2010? Name the amount.
Oh, come on, now, Bill. Peavy is replacement level 5th starter, at best, because some formula says that great pitchers can’t adjust. They read their previously compiled stats and projections, and pitch down to them. That’s what makes them great pitchers.
Also, the fact that Peavy, a Cy Young winner who looked his old self late last year, has a big contract means that he’ll pitch a little worse than Jamie Navarro, and the White Sox won’t fill any holes, even if they’re in contention.
You also have to hand it to Erik Manning; the phrase “have seen better days” is not lazy, and does erase solid years these guys just put up this very last year by Pierzynski and Konerko. Stellar analysis.
However, if these guys were to all put on Red Sox uniforms, they’d be compelling, and the team to beat.
Boy, Kenny Williams sure was dumb to take on Peavy’s contract. I’m sure he could have found a AAA lifer who Bill James projects as a 3+UZR/WTF who would obviously step in and out-perform Peavy for the league minimum.
Does this Manning woman even read what she types?
You aren’t as funny as you think you are.
If you want to make a legitimate argument, make it. If you use old cliches (3+UZR/WTF, really?) and make sexist jokes, then you aren’t going to make your case any stronger. Exaggerating everything that was said makes YOU sound stupid, not Erik.
I like how FG guys are being blamed for Boston/New York bias when only Joe Pawl is a Yanks fan. I’m sure that Erik, being a St. Louis fan, would have such a bias.
This isn’t ESPN’s boards. Don’t bring that weak sauce sarcasm here.
Not to say that Joe Pawl would bring Yankees bias.
He said Peavy was your ace. What are you even complaining about?
That dude sucks.
Seriously, Steven Ellington, what is this sentence supposed to mean:
“Williams hamstrung himself by taking on the Peavy and Rios contracts”
Just like every team “hamstrings” themselves by signing one of the best players in the game to a large contract. Except if they’re the Cardinals, then it’s a great pickup.
Here’s my point, since the tears in your eyes over having weak statistical analysis ridiculed, and your seething anger have blinded you.
MR. Manning (Happy? You can douse that burning bra) is needlessly dismissive and negative, even over things that are pure positives. His analysis is so lazy that it shouldn’t even remain posted.
I expect an apology, both from you and MR. Manning.
Hostile much?
Really, that’s the best you can do? Minus 8?
Erik Manning offers weak and lazy analysis of a team he resents, and I justafiably upbraid him.
All of your feelings are so hurt because you’re not being taken seriously over your nonsense projections and ratings that you can’t even think straight to realize this was a horrible article.
Obviously, Kenny Williams and Ozzie see something in Andruw Jones that isn’t indicated in his rOTFL. The lambasting they’ve been taking from stat-heads all winter for moving in a different direction has revealed modern statistical analysis has truly jumped the shark.
Now all of you, apologize.
I have no particular problem with criticism of the statistical approach used here — though I’d rather the snark was a little more sophisticated than rOTFL — but your identification of anything you dislike with femininity betrays a lot about you. I feel sorry for anyone, especially any woman, who has to treat you like a human being.
And what makes you think I mistook gender as a putdown? Says alot about you.
Let me make this clear: I live in Iowa, the White Sox are on TV here all the time. I watch them on TV and listen to them on the radio frequently. I halfway even like the team. Oh, and I hate the Red Sox.
I think Kenny Williams took on two big contracts that he could very well regret. Duh. Peavy has been injury prone and there are more than a few people who have worried about his mechanics.
The AL and the ballpark will not do him any favors, ZiPS and CHONE both project him to be a 3.9 FIP starter. He is going to be very good, but it’s stupid to think he’ll be what he was in San Diego. If he’s not a 4 win pitcher per year for the duration of his contract, then he’s overpaid. I’m not the only one who thinks he’s overrated.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/peavy-to-the-white-sox
http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/5/21/882338/jake-peavy-to-white-sox-evaluating
Konerko is coming off a good year, but two years prior he was worth less than two WAR. He’s average.
AJ Pierzynski’s WAR the past three seasons, according to Rally, who factors is defense: .7, .6, 1.3. He’s not good. He hits fine for a catcher, his defense mostly sucks. Having Tyler Flowers near MLB ready is nice.
If you don’t think this team has issues, you’re nothing but a blind homer. And an abrasive one at that. Why don’t you start your own blog and wow us with some of your analysis?
Hi, Erik
Just to clear a couple of things up for you, if I wasn’t so dumb, and so much of a sissy, I’d probably know and care what FIP and WAR really meant. And I would imagine the White Sox would be stuck with the Peavy and Rios contracts for the length of those contracts.
1) Never said this team doesn’t have issues. Teahan would have to die in a freak accident, and the spirit of a trumpet-playing, recently dead A-Rod would have to inhabit his body for Teahan to put up anything near, … what to real baseball fans call it … , replacement level? Whatever that means? I heard a smart baseball fan say that once. (tee-hee)
2) Yes, you are a better man than me, because you have evolved to a higher plane of team rooting. Because the whole point of rooting for a team is to admit to other teams’ fans that your team sucks, for all the invalid, paltry reasons they just pulled out of their heinie.
3) Ouch. A homer is the worst thing in the world a sports fan can be called. I don’t think I’ll ever recover.
Sometimes teams “overpay” players to create the excitement of having a Cy Young player put fannies in the seats. Seriously, I’m a baseball fan, I don’t bring a laptop to the game and open Excel and root for payroll. I get drunk and look for an opening to run out onto the field. Oh, and I watch some baseball.
Projections are all fun. But once we cross over, and pretend that projections are baseball analysis, we’re entered the silly. You are making arguments about team moves based on formulas, where scouts and coaches see prospect, and develop it.
I’ll bet Matt Thornton didn’t project well when the Sox picked him up. That sure was a dumb move. So was getting Paul Konerko. And Bobby Jenks. And A.J. Pierzynski. They have a track record of picking up guys who don’t look so hot, and getting more out of them.
Sorry I’m a homer.
p.s. – I blog, but it’s about cute things my puppies do. I won’t give out the URL because somebody might criticize me.
Pretty good summary.
I think there’s reason to be moderately optimistic about Ramirez – his offensive dip was mostly due to his homers and XBH coming down to a more realistic level (21 in 2008 was probably lucky). He more than doubled his walk rate in 2009, which is probably more important to his long-term success.
Ah yes what a bad idea to get Peavy and pay him less than market value, what an idiot Ken Williams is!!!! Next time if he doesn’t want to get “hamstrung” maybe he should just not get one of the best pitchers in baseball! Makes perfect sense. Great article, pal.
man…i love the white sox…but some people are complete idiots.
the pitching staff looks great. there are a lot of options and i think peavy/floyd at the top is a great 1/2.
there’s a ton of reasons to be skeptical about this teams offense. teahen is bad. jones will likely be bad. pierre is bad. konerko is old (though not as bad). they are rostering mark kotsay and seemingly look willing to give him 300 PAs. i would LOVE for the sox to grab dukes ASAP and let ozzie & kenny whip his ass into shape. ain’t nobody getting away with any shit in that locker room.
One wonders why a non-idiot would think a player who’s never impressed in parts of 3 ML seasons and is a head case would be an upgrade over a player with a solid track record, and seems to be back in playing shape and is motivated.
Dukes ceiling is an average Andruw Jones season.
I know it’s fun to pretend that a couple of 12 year olds sit down at home plate with a handful of strat-o-matic cards and roll dice for 2-1/2 hours, but actual people play the actual games.
Have you ever managed somebody? It’s easy to say “whip his ass into shape” but it’s quite a different thing to spend 6 months with a wife-abuser who hates authority, and needs to be motivated to hit 250/337/393. I’d take the 33yo guy who’s rich and bored, but whom I know, worked with before, and I know is easily motivated.
That’s something that’s wholy lost in ratings and projections.
Like all those awesome “average” Andruw Jones seasons the last three years? There’s a reason he signed for 500k.
And there’s a reason why Dukes was released by the worst team in baseball who has a gaping hole at … surprize … the position Dukes was going to play!
It’s hard to admit you’re wrong.
This is so similar to the comments thread after the KC Royals organizational ranking ~ 1 year ago.
I was wondering which fan base would embarrass themselves this year. Congratulations, South Side.
Truth be told, it’s not an entire organization Dave, it’s just that guy (with a cameo from someone else).
And it isn’t over yet! We still have a few more teams with potentially angsty fan bases ready to chomp at the bit when you tell them they rank 18th instead of 15th in a COMPLETELY SUBJECTIVE list.
I know. There’s always one or two guys that makes a whole fan base look bad. This year, that guy is from Chicago.
Wow, you’re right, Dave. I feel so embarrassed by not accepting weak analysis as gospel.
I suppose the Yankees hamstrung themselves with A-Rod, Jeter, Texiera, Sabathia and others. They’re also hamstrung with a world championship.
Admit it. This was a ridiculous post. I am so embarrassed to not have fawned over it.
Gee Michael, you seem to miss the entire point that I repeated about 3 times already. This guy could rank the White Sox 38th, and I wouldn’t care.
The dismissive attitude is not a substitute for analysis. But, hey, if you want to whine about South Side fans because we hate shoddy, lazy analysis, have at it.
I just feel bad for the people at HotJocks.de, who highly recommended your site for insightful analysis, and very dirty pictures of very dirty baseballplayers.
I find neither here.
One positive note that came out of that – among the KC fans who took great issue with the ranking, I know of several who as a result of eating their crow realized that there were things they could do to get smarter about how to value teams and players.
But Dave,
you are such a favorite of ours over at South Side.
Johng – Arod/Tex/Jeter are similar value players to Rios? And Peavy = CC? And New Yorks budget = Chicago? Is that the point you’re making here?
You’ve got your panties in a bunch over the “hamstrung” comment, and I assume you’re a baseball fan since you’re visiting fangraphs, but even if you’re a real CWS homer, you can’t possibly see those signings canceling each other out, right?
And dude, stop being so angry, baseball is around the corner.
Do you see the logical knot in your argument?
When did I mention Rios? At the risk of not being invited to Dave Cameron’s next “10-worst-UZRs-in-the-game” poetry slam, trading for one of the best pitchers in baseball signed to a reasonable contract doesn’t hamstring a team because they have another player who’s overpaid.
That’s exactly like saying that Jeter’s defense hurt the Yankees because Knoblauch was error prone.
I understand, to admit to one mistake in one FanGraphs article means that nothing in the world makes sense anymore. But New Orleans came back. Baseball will, too.
And I’m not angry. I’m giggling maniacly.
In the original quote you referenced, you lumped both players, but it sounds like you’re agree that Rios was a mistake. I don’t hate the Peavy trade, mostly because I don’t think they gave up much to get him (not a Poreda fan). And we’re probably splitting hairs on the type of contract he has going forward, you refer to it as “reasonable,” while I’d call it “not completely awful.”
Oh, I don’t think Rios was a mistake. He’s a risk. Either he calms down and becomes at least a servicable starter, or he’s a calamitous mistake that could cost the Wsox for years. Bobby Higginson-like.
I think he’s a very interesting risk. Williams has a history of getting guys, even years after he wanted them, like Griffey, Jones and Vizquel. Rios still has a high ceiling. If he pulls it together, like it looks like he might be doing this spring, it’s a brilliant acquisition which Williams couldn’t get on the free agent market, and he gave up nothing, just money.
Again, I don’t root for the most efficient team, I thought Griffey was a fun acquisition. Even if at the end of his career, it’ll be fun when he gets elected to the Hall. He was a White Sox for half a season.
Sure, Peavy – not completely awful. The White Sox have one of the best medical staffs in the game. Cooper’s one of the better pitching coaches in the game. I think they can work with Peavy, keep him healthy.
And not having an edit button sucks.
I agree.
I regret getting down on a level of name calling, for that I apologize. I’m not excusing anybody’s behavior, but next time I’ll just do what I always do and just ignore the insults. I never understand why it is ok to name call and act in a way you would never act face to face, but whatever.
Oh, cut it out.
Call me names, who cares? Don’t ignore the results. I’ll happily meet you in some train depot bar outside of Clinton Iowa, and tell you to your face that being a homer isn’t bad.
Seriously, you’re belting out 30 of these in 2 weeks, and can’t write each one like Grapes of Wrath. You’re going to get people taking exception to your prose. Take note, and move on. You’re going to fire off a sentence about Troy Tulowitsky that makes some Air Force guy freak out. That means you’re doing your job.
Don’t take it personally. You hit a nerve with someone who loves his team. That’s all. Dave Cameron finds me embarassing. The guy falls asleep on my front lawn twice a summer. Big deal.
Johng = angriest baseball fan in America.
“Wow, you’re right, Dave. I feel so embarrassed by not accepting weak analysis as gospel.”
I could be misreading you, but it seems like you’ve taken the axe to analysis. Baseball is a game played by men, not statisticians correct?
So no reason to call it “weak” analysis when you think analyzing trends and trying to interpret them is inherently weak, which you make so epically clear by comparing it to D&D or, even worse, being a woman. Imagine how weak you’d be if you were a woman who played D&D!
The question is then, as it always is, why are you at fangraphs? Why come to a site that is about doing this type of analysis just to point out that you don’t like it (and yes, that’s all you’ve done–you haven’t really attacked anything that’s written above with any sort of intelligence or evidence). Go back to ESPN or wherever you came from.
I come to Fangraphs because I find the analysis very interesting, and value the alternative take on rating players, contract value, etc.
My problem comes in when fun and interesting formulas replace objective analysis. Too often, I hear the argument that a team is stupid for paying a veteran X amount, when they can get that production out of a AAA lifer, or 25th man, or whatever.
We pretend that extending one’s limited sample size over the course of a season won’t expose the utility guy for his weaknesses, whereas the seasoned vet sticking around for extra paycheck is a known entity, an extra good example on the team, and easy to manage.
Really, look at how much specialty stats have permeated baseball talk in the last year or two. So much garbage gets thrown around, like the kid saying Elijah Dukes would be a better pickup than Andruw Jones. Maybe he’ll hit 20 points higher, or be worth a half run a game more, or whatever, but he’s probably uncoachable,and maybe scares some front office people as the next OJ waiting for his televised Bronco chase. Kind of distracts the team in a pennant chase.
It is an interesting discussion, Dukes vs. Jones. But it’s not, hands down, obviously a better move.
Johng you are rude and over the top critical. Did I mention also funny as hell? lol. I don’t agree with your style but some of your points are extremely valid. And yes I’d say at this point it’s rather silly to be making judgements on Rios or Peavy in regards to the White Sox. Those type of previous judgements have left plenty of egg on folks faces in the past.
I don’t take exception to the article (afterall a man is entitled to his opinion) but it seems odd for some of you folks to claim “projections” rule over Johng’s gut analysis when its kind of known now that the White Sox in particular frequently outperform them. Again I’m not saying there isn’t value of such things but it is rather “head in the sand” to not READ what he’s writing and tell him to go back to ESPN.
You are correct, I’m being a little dramatic. But “Paul Konerko’s getting old” isn’t good analysis. I like how Rios’ limited sample size with the White Sox is indicative of his future output, but Peavy’s isn’t.
if anyone can translate this to Portuguese I will thank you so much. I shall check out this later.