Comments on: Padilla vs Goliath

By: confused

confused — Sat, 17 Oct 2009 03:01:51 +0000

He’s had several bad outings this year and ended the year in a pretty bad slump. Its true that its been overplayed by the media, and they have no idea just how good Billingsley is, but he’s been far from good for more than two months.

By: Marcus

Marcus — Sat, 17 Oct 2009 00:01:07 +0000

I guess this is why they play the games and opinions are like Aholes….

By: Kevin S.

Kevin S. — Fri, 16 Oct 2009 01:26:03 +0000

I really wish we could edit our posts here.

/facepalm

By: Kevin S.

Kevin S. — Fri, 16 Oct 2009 01:25:34 +0000

As someone pointed out in the Rob Neyer thread quoting this post, someone pointed out that due to off days, they could go Kershaw, Padilla, Kuroda, Wolf, Kershaw, Kuroda, Wolf on regular rest, but it still seems silly to me that he’s getting a start over Billingsley.

By: lincolndude

lincolndude — Fri, 16 Oct 2009 00:07:54 +0000

This move goes against all logic, even old-school logic. Whatever happened to “dance with the one that brung ya”?

If I ever had any doubt that Torre was an idiot, it’s gone now. It’s unconscionable that Billingsley is not starting in this series.

Taking a start against a lefty-heavy lineup away from your lefty-killer (Wolf) and giving it to this bum? Ridiculous!

By: Kevin S.

Kevin S. — Thu, 15 Oct 2009 23:23:58 +0000

“I forgot his name”

Enrique Wilson, if memory serves.

By: MGL

MGL — Thu, 15 Oct 2009 23:18:55 +0000

Let me take my sabermetric hat off and put on my scout hat. Padilla was a below average pitcher in the AL and a near average pitcher in the NL. When you watch him pitch, you cringe a lot. He throws “too many” fastballs (mostly because his off-speed pitches are not very good, especially his “slurvy” curve ball and for some reason he never throws his change up any more) and he does not have good command of any of his pitches, including his fastball. While he throws from 91 to 97 (for some reason he has a wide range in speed), mostly in the 91-94 range, batters simply don’t miss his fastball as often as you would expect given the speed. I suspect that his fastball does not have much movement, it is easy to “see” (certainly from LH batters, as Dave mentions), and of course batters expect it, as he throws it around 75% of the time and a lot more in fastball counts (I think).

I am not a huge fan of Padilla, although I think that he is around an average starter. I think that Wolf is better and I think that Billingsley is much better.

Torre has shown in the past that he can make horrible personnel decisions, like batting A-Rod 8th when cold or playing “I forgot his name” at third base, while benching a much better hitter, versus Pedro because he was like 5-10 lifetime against him.

Now I’ll put my sabermetric hat back on. I have Hudson and Belliard almost identical even versus a RHSP, so I don’t have any problem with Torre using either one of them.

As far as Wolf, Padilla, and Billingsley, it is not even close according to my current projections for those pitchers and my sim.

I have Billingsley winning 2.5% more per game than Padilla and Wolf, 5.5% more. That is a lot.

There is no doubt in my mind that Wolf should be pitching game 2 and that Padilla should probably be in the bullpen. In fact, with Padilla occasionally but rarely being able to throw 96 or 97 in a game, it seems like he would be a perfect short reliever. In fact, the only time his fastball is really hard to hit is when he throws it 95 or more.

By: AB

AB — Thu, 15 Oct 2009 21:17:47 +0000

I agree completely. I understand the whole “what happened to Billingsley” angle has gotten played way up in the media.

Billingsley does have bad command/control but still had far better numbers on the year than Padilla–K/9, FIP, ERA.

Padilla is also a fastball-dominant pitcher, over 75% this year, and the Phils are a great fastball hitting team, going by both my eyes watching them every day and their team value against fastballs per 100 (1st in NL). And Padilla doesn’t even have that huge of a control edge over Billingsley, he is over 3 BB/9 himself on the year, pretty average

Billingsley throws a lot more junk (under 50% fastballs on the year), and it’s quality junk when it’s on. He’s definitely a tougher matchup for the Phils lineup, who did not hit curveballs very well on the season

So just that’s a mistake, and then Torre compounds it by moving him all the way up to Game 2, assuring him 2 starts in a non-sweep. Thanks Joe!

By: Denis

Denis — Thu, 15 Oct 2009 20:53:17 +0000

It is not enough that a pitcher makes launchings of 94, 95 and 96 miles per hour in the corners and a controlled change of speed and grandiose to win two games? Please we all know how the Latins have written the history in the MLB. Padilla will make an excellent work. Well made Joe T.

By: Xeifrank

Xeifrank — Thu, 15 Oct 2009 19:14:17 +0000

The Phillies actually have hit left handed pitchers better than right handed pitchers this year.
vr, Xei