Comments on: Parity Comes To The AL http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/parity-comes-to-the-al/ Daily baseball statistical analysis and commentary Sun, 12 Feb 2012 20:36:47 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: ball four http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/parity-comes-to-the-al/#comment-73991 ball four Thu, 30 Apr 2009 20:17:29 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=4494#comment-73991 I think it's Oakland. Unproven rotation, punchless offense. It's a shame because this bullpen looks fantastic, but they're not going to score enough runs, and their starters will get outpitched a fair amount of the time too. They'll probably win less than 70 games. Great post, Dave, and I agree that the overall depth in the league seems far greater than usual. I think it’s Oakland. Unproven rotation, punchless offense. It’s a shame because this bullpen looks fantastic, but they’re not going to score enough runs, and their starters will get outpitched a fair amount of the time too. They’ll probably win less than 70 games.

Great post, Dave, and I agree that the overall depth in the league seems far greater than usual.

]]> By: KingKirkpatrick http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/parity-comes-to-the-al/#comment-73333 KingKirkpatrick Sat, 25 Apr 2009 04:58:08 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=4494#comment-73333 JH, you said in the beginning of your post that DeJesus is in for a big improvement, and then later say that DeJesus will only improve a little. Of course Jacobs and others will regress, but DeJesus and Aviles will raise their numbers quite a bit, as will Butler. There is no way Butler is a .600 OPS hitter. Also, at the end of your post, you say there are five guys that will be "coming down to Earth," when the first time you said it was four guys. I think you are confusing yourself here, I'm not really sure what you're talking about in some of your post. As a team, the Royals BABIP has been low based on what it should be, given their LD%. That should even out and that takes into consideration players overachieving and underachieving so far, for whatever reason. I'm not saying the team is going to score 850 runs or anything ridiculous, but 750 isn't unrealistic, IMO. Three offensive sinkholes have been largely removed from the team (Gathright, Gload, and Tony Pena Jr.)..that's a decent upgrade in and of itself. JH, you said in the beginning of your post that DeJesus is in for a big improvement, and then later say that DeJesus will only improve a little.

Of course Jacobs and others will regress, but DeJesus and Aviles will raise their numbers quite a bit, as will Butler. There is no way Butler is a .600 OPS hitter.

Also, at the end of your post, you say there are five guys that will be “coming down to Earth,” when the first time you said it was four guys.

I think you are confusing yourself here, I’m not really sure what you’re talking about in some of your post.

As a team, the Royals BABIP has been low based on what it should be, given their LD%. That should even out and that takes into consideration players overachieving and underachieving so far, for whatever reason. I’m not saying the team is going to score 850 runs or anything ridiculous, but 750 isn’t unrealistic, IMO. Three offensive sinkholes have been largely removed from the team (Gathright, Gload, and Tony Pena Jr.)..that’s a decent upgrade in and of itself.

]]> By: JH http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/parity-comes-to-the-al/#comment-73245 JH Fri, 24 Apr 2009 17:03:52 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=4494#comment-73245 Yes, 5 is more than 4, but the difference is in the quality, not the quantity. Dejesus is in for a big improvement. Aviles almost certainly won't reach 2008 levels, though I expect him to get better. Guillen will be a better bat, but he'll give a lot of value back in the field. Gordon and Butler are massive question marks. On the other hand, John Buck currently has a wOBA of .490. His career mark is .304. Mike Jacobs is at .410 (previous career high: .340). Mark Teahen is spotting a .404 wOBA thanks to his completely unsustainable .409 BABIP. His career mark is .331. Alberto Callaspo has a BABIP over .400 supporting his .391 wOBA, and Coco Crisp's .296 ISO is the definition of a small sample size fluke - particularly since it's buoyed by 3 triples - as many as he hit last season. The Royals have 3 league average hitters hitting like hall of famers right now, and 2 below league average hitters hitting like all-stars. That's over half of the lineup playing way, way, way over their heads. For the expected improvers, Aviles is the only one who's potentially a huge improvement that will cancel out all the regression that's on the way. A little improvement from DeJesus (should get his .300 wOBA back up to .350 or so), a minor addition from Guillen (still barely above replacement level, so not much of an upgrade), and theoretical upside from Gordon and Butler just isn't going to make up for those 5 guys coming down to earth, which they will. Yes, 5 is more than 4, but the difference is in the quality, not the quantity. Dejesus is in for a big improvement. Aviles almost certainly won’t reach 2008 levels, though I expect him to get better. Guillen will be a better bat, but he’ll give a lot of value back in the field. Gordon and Butler are massive question marks.

On the other hand, John Buck currently has a wOBA of .490. His career mark is .304. Mike Jacobs is at .410 (previous career high: .340). Mark Teahen is spotting a .404 wOBA thanks to his completely unsustainable .409 BABIP. His career mark is .331. Alberto Callaspo has a BABIP over .400 supporting his .391 wOBA, and Coco Crisp’s .296 ISO is the definition of a small sample size fluke – particularly since it’s buoyed by 3 triples – as many as he hit last season.

The Royals have 3 league average hitters hitting like hall of famers right now, and 2 below league average hitters hitting like all-stars. That’s over half of the lineup playing way, way, way over their heads.

For the expected improvers, Aviles is the only one who’s potentially a huge improvement that will cancel out all the regression that’s on the way. A little improvement from DeJesus (should get his .300 wOBA back up to .350 or so), a minor addition from Guillen (still barely above replacement level, so not much of an upgrade), and theoretical upside from Gordon and Butler just isn’t going to make up for those 5 guys coming down to earth, which they will.

]]> By: Tito Landrum http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/parity-comes-to-the-al/#comment-73201 Tito Landrum Fri, 24 Apr 2009 07:29:32 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=4494#comment-73201 Quick edit: The O's are 8 - 8. thank youuuuuu. Quick edit: The O’s are 8 – 8.

thank youuuuuu.

]]> By: Joe R http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/parity-comes-to-the-al/#comment-73200 Joe R Fri, 24 Apr 2009 07:01:31 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=4494#comment-73200 Dice-K for Kelly Shoppach. /prays Dice-K for Kelly Shoppach.
/prays

]]> By: Joe R http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/parity-comes-to-the-al/#comment-73199 Joe R Fri, 24 Apr 2009 06:58:49 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=4494#comment-73199 Mike Jacobs' BABIP in his three Florida seasons: .299 .312 .264 His current: .367 And a .340 ISO I will eat my shoe if he doesn't regress. Mike Jacobs’ BABIP in his three Florida seasons:
.299
.312
.264

His current:
.367

And a .340 ISO
I will eat my shoe if he doesn’t regress.

]]> By: lookatthosetwins http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/parity-comes-to-the-al/#comment-73191 lookatthosetwins Fri, 24 Apr 2009 05:40:16 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=4494#comment-73191 I'm glad to know that who the worst team is is going to be based on a 3 game series. Especially considering, as I mentioned above, the any statistical projection that I saw had those two teams 1-2 in the AL central. I really don't feel that 2 weeks of crappy play puts them at the gutter. I’m glad to know that who the worst team is is going to be based on a 3 game series. Especially considering, as I mentioned above, the any statistical projection that I saw had those two teams 1-2 in the AL central. I really don’t feel that 2 weeks of crappy play puts them at the gutter.

]]> By: lookatthosetwins http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/parity-comes-to-the-al/#comment-73190 lookatthosetwins Fri, 24 Apr 2009 05:36:10 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=4494#comment-73190 And yet every projection system put them at the top of the AL Central. I put them 2nd, but that's mostly because I'm a homer. I really don't think a few weeks of crappy pitching is enough to make them worse than the royals. And yet every projection system put them at the top of the AL Central. I put them 2nd, but that’s mostly because I’m a homer. I really don’t think a few weeks of crappy pitching is enough to make them worse than the royals.

]]> By: Jimmy Gobble http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/parity-comes-to-the-al/#comment-73156 Jimmy Gobble Fri, 24 Apr 2009 01:20:58 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=4494#comment-73156 I take personal offense to your insinuation that being a turkey is a bad thing. I take personal offense to your insinuation that being a turkey is a bad thing.

]]> By: KingKirkpatrick http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/parity-comes-to-the-al/#comment-73127 KingKirkpatrick Thu, 23 Apr 2009 21:33:54 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=4494#comment-73127 Yes, there are four guys that are hot that will regress some...but you just names five guys who will all get better..with Butler and Gordon (when he returns) likely to improve by quite a bit. I'm not saying the offense will be above average...but it's gonna be better than it is now. Also, I don't think Mark Teahen is guaranteed to regress THAT much. His LD% was in the mid to upper 30s last I looked......that's pretty fantastic...and he is 27 years old..so. I predicted 79 wins before the year started. A few more than that wouldn't shock me though. I think that's realistic, given the division they play in. Yes, there are four guys that are hot that will regress some…but you just names five guys who will all get better..with Butler and Gordon (when he returns) likely to improve by quite a bit.

I’m not saying the offense will be above average…but it’s gonna be better than it is now.

Also, I don’t think Mark Teahen is guaranteed to regress THAT much. His LD% was in the mid to upper 30s last I looked……that’s pretty fantastic…and he is 27 years old..so.

I predicted 79 wins before the year started. A few more than that wouldn’t shock me though. I think that’s realistic, given the division they play in.

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