Paul Maholm’s Value To the Pirates
Long stretches of losing baseball can have devastating tolls on MLB teams. Perhaps none knows this better than the Pirates. The team hasn’t finished above .500 since Barry Bonds left after the 1992 season, and the futility has predictably dampened attendance. In the past seven seasons the team hasn’t finished better than 27th in the league in attendance. That necessarily means less revenue, which means that the Pirates have to play a different economic game than most of the league. This comes into play with their longest-tenured pitcher, Paul Maholm.
For the second straight season the Pirates will pay their players less than $40 million. This has been the case six times in the last 11 years. Part of the reason is that a perpetual loser has difficulty luring high-priced free agents. But a larger part of the problem is that the team doesn’t have the revenue stream to support a payroll much larger. Team president Frank Coonelly discussed the issue in a recent interview with Pirates Prospects:
Today, no but we will be able to support that payroll ($70 to $80 million) very soon if our fans believe that we now have a group of players in Pittsburgh and on its way here in the near future that is competitive. We need to take a meaningful step forward in terms of attendance to reach that payroll number while continuing to invest heavily in our future but I am convinced that the attendance will move quickly once we convince our fans that we are on the right track.
That’s going to take quite a vote of confidence from the fans, who will likely have to suffer a 19th straight year of losing baseball in 2011. Even if the Pirates convince some of their fans that they are on the path to success, chances are attendance will not increase to the point where they can add significant payroll in 2012. They will then have to seek out below market options to fill out the roster, in hopes that their young players eventually deliver a season near .500, which could possibly provide impetus for the team to invest more heavily in market value players.
The good news is that Pittsburgh has just $10.625 million committed to 2012 payroll. Furthermore, their best player, Andrew McCutchen, will still earn a pre-arbitration salary. They also likely won’t see a big uptick in payroll due to arbitration, even though they have nine eligible players. None figures to be a particularly costly case, which should help keep their post-arbitration obligations under $25 million. That leaves room, even with a $40 to $50 million payroll, for a few players, particularly pitchers, at market-value contracts. But I’m not sure Maholm is the guy.
This year Maholm earns $5.75 million, a value he has exceeded in each of his five full major league seasons, in terms of WAR dollars. The concern is not with his 2011 salary, but rather his 2012 option, which comes in at $9.75 million. That is right around his projected market value. The issue comes with Maholm’s pitching independent numbers, which determine his WAR, vs. his results. In three of his five major league seasons, including the last two, Maholm’s ERA has outpaced his FIP. The only season in which he has beaten his FIP by a significant margin came in 2008, which was by far his best season in the bigs.
While Maholm can certainly provide value — he easily exceeded $9.75 million in WAR dollars in 2008 and 2009 — he might not be the type of player on whom the Pirates should spend those market value dollars. They need to be careful with every dollar they spend as they rebuild the team. A better value, if not a better pitcher, than Maholm will provide them with a stopgap, which is what Maholm is at this point, anyway.
In that way, trading Maholm at the deadline might be the best move for the long term. That way they can continue adding young players to their system while eliminating the fan-friendly option of picking up Maholm’s contract. That might hurt in the short term, as trading Maholm could make the team worse in 2011. But in the long term it allows them to add a player who might be a part of the next Pirates team that finishes above .500 and, perhaps, makes the playoffs. It doesn’t appear that Maholm, as he enters his free agency years, is going to be around for that payoff in the rebuilding phase.
Trading a long-tenured and well-liked player such as Maholm is never easy for a team, especially when losing him probably means downgrading the pitching staff in the short term. But the Pirates can’t afford to think in the short term right now. Their focus should be on building a stable of players that can bring it out of a nearly two-decades-long rut. Maholm is a valuable pitcher in many ways, but as he approaches free agency, he’s not going to provide as much value for the Pirates as he can for another team. Come deadline time, the Pirates would do well to shop Maholm and get back players who will be around for that next great Pirates team.
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Maholm is a lock to be traded if any one of the Pirates’ four young starting pitchers who ended last year at AA (Rudy Owens, Bryan Morris, Justin Wilson, Jeff Locke) continue their progress in 2011. IIRC, the first three are slated to begin at AAA, and it isn’t difficult to imagine one of them (Owens?) performing well enough to earn a mid-season callup.
and just for the record, there’s a slight chance that McCutchen will be a Super Two player next year.
“a larger part of the problem is that the team doesn’t have the revenue stream to support a payroll much larger.”
Well… sorta. Maybe if they decided to be less profitable than other teams, they could support a larger payroll. As per John Henry’s quote in 2009:
“Over a billion dollars has been paid to seven chronically uncompetitive teams, five of whom have had baseball’s highest operating profits. Who, except these teams, can think this is a good idea?” (for which Henry was fined 500k, apparently)
In other words, the Pirates have been among the 5 most profitable teams because they’re pocketing revenue rather than re-investing it. Moreover, receiving around 40m in revenue sharing, the majority of what they’ll be making is profit. I would imagine that with this mentality, if their payroll hits 10m, they’ll throw a parade and try to entice fans with fireworks rather than big signings.
The moral of the story is that the Pirates already CAN support a higher payroll, at least up to the level of the Royals. They simply would rather be raking in the dough. And with this approach, I still doubt they will be competitive for a long time.
Jeebus crisp, give it a rest. Please don’t confuse the idiots who used to steer the Pirates with current president Frank Coonelly and current GM Neal Huntington. Both MLB and the players union are on the record as okay with the Pirates’ spending, given the pre-arb service time status of about half of their roster and the fact that since Coonelly and Huntington took the reins, they are genuinely committed to a rebuilding plan.
And nevermind that the Pirates spent more than any team on the draft over the past 3 years, and have committed millions of dollars to Latin America. Why would a team purely intent on “raking in the dough” spend more than any other team on unproven amateur players, and give them over-slot bonuses?
Finally, if you want to complain that the Pirates should spend more, please identify every free agent they should have targeted over the past three offseasons. This offseason alone, the Pirates tried to give millions of dollars to Jose De Los Santos and Carl Pavano, but they declined; were Cliff Lee, Derek Jeter, and Carl Crawford ever realistic options to sign with the Pirates? Be sure to indicate how each player they should have signed would have put the Pirates over the top, and also address how their signings would have affected the Pirates debt to equity ratio (a MLB requirement that was directly responsible for the 2003 trade of Aramis Ramirez to the Cubs for jack squat).
If you had read any of my comments in the past, you would recognize that I respect that the Pirates GM and leadership has vastly improved and may ultimately put a competitive team out there. With that said, comments like this: “Today, no but we will be able to support that payroll ($70 to $80 million) very soon” from the front office are pretty disingenuous. I know that as the president, you have to say those things, but it doesn’t mean we have to buy them.
I am not advocating that the Pirates should go out and flash money for no good reason. I am simply calling them out on their crazy “appeal to poverty” and “need more fans before we can spend money.” If their party line was “We’re saving up money to be competitive in future years once our talent develops,” I’d entirely support that. I’d say “Sounds great, invest it wisely, show the numbers in a big piggy bank, and break the bank when you’ve got a shot.”
But if their party line is going to be “We need more fans before we can spend money (even though revenue sharing covers basically our WHOLE salary currently)” then yes… I’m going to call bull.
How dare the world not stop and read every single word you’ve written about your thoughts on the affairs of the Pirates FO.
I am seriously flabbergasted at gonfalon’s complete lack of respect by not reading every single one of your posts and knowing your opinion. This really boggles my mind to no end.
If you actually list the supposed 7 chronically uncompetitive teams that John Henry was referring to, which are the teams you come up with?
Right. You actually can’t come up with those 7 teams. Guess what? John Henry was talking out of his butt.
So, please don’t tell me that the Pirates are obviously one of the 5 most profitable teams and can obviously spend way more money on payroll than they are.
It just doesn’t make logical sense that the team that is #27 in market size, #28 in attendance and last in ticket prices can have a payroll much higher than 27th or 28th in MLB, which is where they have been almost every year.
I was half expecting to see a blank page
Haha! They’d be lucky to get a PTBNL for him…
The same site that had the Coonelly interview referenced in this article also looked at what Maholm would be worth on the open market.
http://www.piratesprospects.com/2011/02/what-would-paul-maholm-be-worth.html
Maholm is not loved by Pittsburgh. I went to a game last year, and do not recall noting there were a lot of Maholm shirts/jerseys. McCutchen, check. Alvarez, check. Duke, half-check. Maholm…………………
Can we just once have a Pittsburgh Pirates article written without beginning with the “18 consecutive losing seasons” cliche?
I don’t see a reason to pay $60-80M for a team that might go .500… but the Pirates attendance is not meaningfully below the Rays, Orioles, Royals, Blue Jays, Marlins, Athletics or Indians. The Royals spent unwisely, but in a few years have built up their minor league system a lot better than the Bucs. The Rays system just keeps chugging. The Indians had a shot one year at least. The Marlins have one of the best players and are competitive. Even the Orioles have hope this year! Not one of those teams has endured 19 straight losing seasons without a sniff of the playoffs. AT THE VERY LEAST they’ve seen some good/competitive baseball after the All-Star break.
Coonelly/NH aren’t responsible for most of those seasons, but what progress have they made? If you’re building a minor league system, where is the talent? Where is the supporting cast for Cutch, Pedro, Walker and Tabata (assuming the last three pan out)? What have the Latin America investments brought? Why did they sandbag Sano? Is there any pitching anywhere above high A?
Braun, Fielder, Yovani, Weeks, Hart, etc. come up around the same time and have fallen short of the Cardinals/Reds except one year. Do the Pirates have players of that caliber? Is McCutchen as good as Braun? Pedro close to Fielder? Not to mention there is no pitching even close to the MLB level worth discussing. If the Bucs won’t spend until they have a shot, they aren’t going to spend for at least 2-3 years, probably ever… meanwhile they’ll have paid off their debt (which they’ve done a substantial amount of since 2003, gonfalon) and gotten a few rich owners a lot richer.
Re: the article – wouldn’t Maholm get a 3yr/$25M contract or in that range? Teams would prefer that deal over the 1yr/$9.75M option in most cases, no? Maholm for half the year isn’t worth all that much, IMO. Can’t wait to hear NH call into a radio show to defend the crappy prospects the Bucs get in return for him.
The wealth of ignorance of your post is stunning:
“Where is the supporting cast for Cutch, Pedro, Walker and Tabata (assuming the last three pan out)?”
Tony Sanchez will likely be the starting catcher next year, and if Anthony Rendon is drafted this year, he will arrive by summer ’13. That would be 6 of 8 everyday players. Starling Marte, Andrew Lambo, Jordy Mercer, and Chase D’arnaud could also contribute. And I wouldn’t write off Steve Pearce and John Bowker just yet.
“What have the Latin America investments brought? Why did they sandbag Sano?”
You seriously haven’t heard of Luis Heredia? And it’s not Huntington’s fault if Sano’s agent didn’t give them a chance to counteroffer.
“Is there any pitching anywhere above high A?”
Seriously??!? You mean other than starting pitchers Rudy Owens, Bryan Morris, Justin Wilson, and Jeff Locke, plus reliever Danny Moskos, all of whom should debut in 2011 or 2012?
“If the Bucs won’t spend until they have a shot, they aren’t going to spend for at least 2-3 years, probably ever… meanwhile they’ll have paid off their debt (which they’ve done a substantial amount of since 2003, gonfalon) and gotten a few rich owners a lot richer. ”
The Pirates have paid off their debt?!?? That’d be news to Frank Coonelly, and MLB. To their credit, the Pirates are indeed better off than they were in 2003. Are you actually complaining that the Pirates are run by competent people?
You’re doing yeoman’s work here, gonfalon. Nice job.
A particular note on Heredia: he’s about to be the 2nd 16-y.o. to play in the GCL for Pittsburgh in the last 40 years. The kid could be starting in Pittsburgh before he’s 20.
Love the Pirates talk! I think we agree that the current regime has the right blueprint and we both like the fact that the team doesn’t waste resources on a potential .500 flash in the pan season… but I am not confidence that 1) mgmt will spend when the time is right, and 2) this group of players is good enough to consistently compete for the MLB Central title.
Re: Sanchez, Rendon by summer ’13… 6 everyday players –
Assumes Pedro, Walker, Tabata, Sanchez, and a yet to be drafted prospect all pan out. Only one solid piece in place thus far. The others have a lot to prove. Walker, Tabata, and Sanchez are projected as role players. Insert Pirates underrated homer-ism here (I think Sanchez will outperform his projection, for example), but it doesn’t appear that a huge WAR player is in this group of unproven players, other than Pedro… who the jury is still out on… and possibly Rendon… who we don’t know anything about yet. Also, by the end of 2013 we will be looking at Cutch’s walk year by the time Rendon and the 2010 draftees are ready.
Re: Marte, Lambo, Mercer, D’arnaud, Pearce and Bowker…
Sure… how many wins do they realistically add?
“Owens, Morris, etc…”
Owens is the highest rated pitcher of those mentioned and he’s 3 star prospect by BP, which gave a perfect world projection as a 4th starter. Again, perfect world projection.
“You seriously haven’t heard of Luis Heredia? And it’s not Huntington’s fault if Sano’s agent didn’t give them a chance to counteroffer.”
Heredia is 16. Let’s not label that egg a chicken just yet.
Sano was reportedly insulted by the Pirates low offer after years of cultivating a personal relationship. For the amount of effort they spent scouting him, that $0.5-1.0mm could have been shed from the MLB roster to make room. Pretty inexcusable.
Similar outcome, albeit a very different situation, with Matt Capps last year. For $500k more the Bucs could have locked him up (for the same amount the Bucs eventuall gave Dotel). The Nats got a good catching prospect for Capps at a time when the Bucs sorely needed a catcher. I don’t want to Bucs to overpay for players by any means, but these are a few small $ examples where budgets aren’t really to blame.
“The Pirates have paid off their debt?!?? That’d be news to Frank Coonelly, and MLB.”
The Pirates debt ratios were less than 3x EBITDA and 0.75x revenue at 10/31/08, but were much worse by 7/31/09 so you’re probably right on this one.
“Love the Pirates talk! I think we agree that the current regime has the right blueprint and we both like the fact that the team doesn’t waste resources on a potential .500 flash in the pan season… but I am not confidence that 1) mgmt will spend when the time is right, and 2) this group of players is good enough to consistently compete for the MLB Central title. ”
Agreed, but (1) I’m going to give the current mgmt the benefit of the doubt, and (2) the system will have to be *consistently* reloaded (thru the draft, Latin America, etc.) to consistently compete for the NL Central title.
In addition, I will agree that many of the Pirates minor leaguers might not pan out, and also that the three who became regulars in 2010 (Alvarez, Walker, Tabata) still aren’t necessarily a sure thing for 2011. But compare the state of the Pirates’ minor league system in 2011 vs. four years ago. In January 2007, Baseball America ranked the Pirates’ top prospects as follows:
1. Andrew McCutchen, of
2. Neil Walker, c
3. Brad Lincoln, rhp
4. Yoslan Herrera, rhp
5. Josh Sharpless, rhp
6. Steven Pearce, 1b
7. Brian Bixler, ss
8. Brad Corley, of
9. Todd Redmond, rhp
10. Mike Felix, lhp
(baseballamerica dot com/today/prospects/rankings/organization-top-10-prospects/2007/263244.html)
the Pirates’ minor-league system wasn’t completely barren, but in hindsight you’d expect a lot more given how poorly the Pirates had played (and where they had drafted). McCutchen and Walker were expected to make an impact and have so far, and the jury is still out on Lincoln and Pearce (although both will likely begin 2011 at AAA). on the other hand, Herrera, Sharpless, Corley, and Felix are out of baseball already, and Bixler is competing for a utility spot with the Nationals this spring.
Neal Huntington’s first draft was in June 2008, but he also replenished the farm system thru trades and by not ignoring Latin America. here’s BA’s 2011 list:
1. Jameson Taillon, rhp
2. Tony Sanchez, c
3. Stetson Allie, rhp
4. Starling Marte, of
5. Luis Heredia, rhp
6. Bryan Morris, rhp
7. Rudy Owens, lhp
8. Jeff Locke, lhp
9. Zack Von Rosenberg, rhp
10. Chase d’Arnaud, ss/2b
(baseballamerica dot com/today/prospects/rankings/organization-top-10-prospects/2011/2611137.html)
Even after promoting three everyday starters from the minors in 2010, the Pirates still have three potential No. 1 starting pitchers, three more starting pitchers who at least have been successful at AA, and at least one projected everyday starter (Sanchez) in the pipeline. None of those players are proven, but isn’t it nice to see actual prospects all the way from 1-10?
and finally, I find it hard to believe that Sano felt insulted enough to instruct his agent not to allow the Pirates a counteroffer.
Comparing current prospects to former failed prospects is a little unfair, but yes the current crop + Rendon/Cole is >>> the crap the Bucs had before NH. Always scary when 3 top prospects are young pitchers though.
I wonder if the Bucs take Cole now that he is tearing it up. Would think a safer plus bat with plus defense is the better choice, but pairing Cole with Taillon, Allie, and Heredia is pretty tempting…