Comments on: Pavano Pitching Well

By: Dylan

Dylan — Mon, 25 May 2009 00:42:56 +0000

Thought you might like to see this:

http://sports.yahoo.com/fantasy/blog/roto_arcade/post/Weekly-Rundown-Carl-Pavano-sheds-sucks-label-;_ylt=Ap4b9n3ZLtiuA.BAP3gOXPK5bZ8u?urn=fantasy,165457

By: Curtis

Curtis — Sat, 23 May 2009 16:16:47 +0000

Defense is rarely a constant value.

By: Ezra

Ezra — Fri, 22 May 2009 23:00:10 +0000

If a player has been on the same team for several years, ERA is more useful than FIP; it takes into account the defense behind it, which then has a constant value.

Taking out fielding stats doesn’t necessarily improve the value of the statistics, it depends what you are looking to predict.

By: rfs1962

rfs1962 — Fri, 22 May 2009 21:28:30 +0000

Do you suppose there’s some kind of a “new pitcher effect” that would lead to a large gap between FIP and ERA in a pitcher’s first several starts with a team? Pavano has never pitched for the Indians before. Dave is suggesting that the .370 BABIP will drop because it’s unsustainably high; I’m suggesting, based only on the idea that popped into my after reading this, that the team’s defense may make adjustments specific to Pavano that will also help lower that number.

By: vivaelpujols

vivaelpujols — Fri, 22 May 2009 21:28:12 +0000

Some pitchers have the ability to control their BABIP, or they become “better” in tight situations. However, their are very few pitchers like that. Most of the time, I would go with FIP, unless you can pinpoint a specific reason, and give some kind of evidence for that.

By: Sean

Sean — Fri, 22 May 2009 20:07:25 +0000

“…but a smart team may get a bargain at the deadline when they call Mark Shapiro and make a deal to bolster their pitching staff.”

I would presume that Mark Shapiro would know Pavano’s full value at the trading deadline, as his team did the analysis to sign Pavano in the first place. That said, I doubt Shapiro would provide another team with a bargain. Rather, I think a smart team may get fair value through a trade at the deadline.

By: Chip

Chip — Fri, 22 May 2009 19:41:36 +0000

I think if you look at his ERA outside his first start (9 runs in 1 inning) you get a fairly reasonable estimation of his ability ~ 4.50 ERA.

By: Paul

Paul — Fri, 22 May 2009 19:09:41 +0000

Unfortunately, his ZIPS update also says he’ll only pitch 44 more innings this year!

By: Andrew

Andrew — Fri, 22 May 2009 19:06:13 +0000

I agree that over a couple of months, FIP is undoubtedly better than ERA. However, over a longer period (several seasons +) ERA is more useful than FIP or the like. I don’t remember where I saw it or what the exact reasoning is, but there is a reason that some pitchers (like Johan Santana) continually outperform their FIP.

By: LD

LD — Fri, 22 May 2009 18:42:11 +0000

Useless is too harsh a word for ERA its not like we are talking about win loss record here. ERA has some value, but is generally overrated.